Apple's popular Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC) takes place this week in California, US, starting Monday 10th June, 2013.

What do we expect to see?

1. An iOS7 upgrade: there will be visual enhancements, with improved access to APIs for developers;
2. iCloud or iRadio progress: tighter integration with iOS and iTunes;
3. Maps: Apple lost heartshare because of its Maps mis-launch last year. It must improve this year

What would we like to see?

1. More certainty around hardware roadmaps for the iPhone and iPad families. We believe Apple has been flip-flopping on new product developments behind the scenes in recent months;
2. More focus on China, since it is now by far the world's largest cellphone market.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, mobile phone wholesale (trade) revenues in India will grow by 17% in 2014. This is faster than the global average. Solid mobile phone volumes and rising wholesale prices due to a 3G boom will drive revenues higher.  More analysis and forecasts can be viewed by clients here. 

Our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service's freshly published report -- Global Handset Distribution Forecast: Offline vs. Online -- models mobile phone sales by channel.

We forecast the distribution of mobile phones through online retail channels will grow +27% worldwide in 2013. A steadily growing number of mobile phones will be sold through online channels over time, making this an increasingly important distribution channel for operators and retailers.

North America and Western Europe represent the highest online % during the forecast timeframe, while China is seeing significant changes in distribution flows at the moment, due to pioneering companies like Xiaomi, as well as emerging e-commerce players.

Online channels continue to gain a rising share of global mobile phone distribution flows, notably in developed regions where wide Internet access and access to financial credit support online purchasing behaviors. While operators are especially strong in online distribution channels in developed markets, they will find it more difficult to gain a similar presence in developing markets where third-party retail channels currently dominate. Operators are best positioned to establish a foothold in mobile phone distribution in developing markets, both online and offline, by partnering with handset suppliers and focusing on upcoming high-value 4G postpaid customer segments.

Our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service's updated report -- BRIC Country Handset Revenues, ASPs & Price-Tier Forecasts: 2009 to 2017 -- forecasts four countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) to generate a combined 28% of global mobile phone industry revenues in 2013.

Global handset wholesale revenues will grow 16% in 2013, followed by total growth of 5% in the following five years through 2017. BRIC countries together will post an above-average growth rate during the forecasted timeframe. However, Brazil and China will start to see negative revenue growth by 2016 and 2017, driven by steadily declining wholesale average selling prices (ASP), while India will continue to see positive revenue growth rates during this timeframe. Russia will remain almost flat for the next five years through 2017.

Among the four countries, China will post the highest handset revenue growth rate in 2013, driven by surging handset prices, while India will surpass China to lead the growth wave from 2014 thanks to the steady expansion of the country's handset volumes.

The highest regional ASPs among the four countries will be found in China in 2013. The continued shift towards 3G smartphones will help China's handset ASPs to reach this peak in 2013, but the increased entry- and mid-tier smartphone mix, as well as softer feature phone prices, will drive it down from 2014 onwards. More analysis and forecasts can be downloaded by clients in this published report.

如果联想联手NEC联合发力智能机市场，倒不失为一步好棋，虽然一切目前为止都还只是传言。

首先，成立合资公司比完全收购要减少风险，以联想收购IBM的PC业务为前车之鉴，在加上复杂敏感的中日关系，合资公司可以减少对日本消费者的冲击，并且可以最大限度的保留技术和人力资源；

其次，合资公司可以帮助联想打开海外成熟市场的大门。虽然联想智能手机已经进入了一些新兴市场，但向来要求严格的欧美市场还是一片空白。随着中国市场竞争的白热化(我们的Handset Country Share Tracker services追踪中国智能手机季度市场份额,Q1 2013的数据表明联想在中国智能手机市场的份额环比下降了4个百分点)，借力NEC的品牌先进入日本市场可谓一个分散风险增加收入的捷径；

第三，联想可以借力NEC在硬件和工业设计方面的实力，进一步提升手机产品的竞争力；

最后，双方的这个合力还可以在不同的产品线之间得以体现。把PC业务和智能手机进一步结合，分享共同的客户资源和渠道资源。

This week, unconfirmed rumors resurfaced that Lenovo of China may be interested in merging its smartphone division with NEC Casio of Japan in H2 2013. Lenovo has been running a separate venture with NEC in the PC business since 2011.

According to our Country Share Tracker (CST) service, NEC Casio performed well in the Japanese mobile phone market during the early-2000s, but it has drifted into the mid-table rankings this year in both local handset and smartphone market share due to mixed products, slow rollouts and suboptimal distribution.

By contrast, Lenovo is putting in the utmost efforts trying to increase its market presence in smartphones, based partly on its market penetration of the PC industry, which resulted in Lenovo taking 6th place in our global smartphone rankings during Q1 2013. Lenovo is doing particularly well in its home smartphone market of China, where it is an established top-5 player.

The creation of a joint venture with NEC Casio could give Lenovo a greater foothold in the Japanese smartphone market. Lenovo will be targeting Japan because it will be the world's 4th biggest country by volume in 2014. If Lenovo could gain better traction in Japan through a JV with NEC Casio, it would pose a competitive threat to Fujitsu, Sharp, Sony, Kyocera, Apple, Samsung and others. Combining Lenovo's hunger for growth with NEC's high-end product experience could prove a solid combination.

However, it remains to be seen whether Japanese consumers or operators would warm to such an ambitious Chinese entrant -- especially given ongoing political tensions between the two countries. For these reasons, we believe a Lenovo-NEC-Casio merger, full or partial, if it happened, would be achievable, but any JV would probably struggle to move beyond niche status at home in Japan.

Our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) services published VALUE SHARE: Global Handset Revenue, ASP and Profit in Q1 2013 report today. Please click here to access the full report.

Global handset wholesale (trade) revenues grew +11% from a year earlier in Q1 2013. Revenues for the handset industry are growing faster than shipments, which slipped -1% year-over-year. A greater mix of higher-priced 3G and 4G LTE models drove the spike in revenues.

Global operating profit for the entire handset industry growing just +5% YoY this quarter, which is slower than the +28% YoY growth rate recorded in all of 2012. The profit slowdown was caused by weaker financials from giant Apple and its terrible iPhone profit growth rate of -17% YoY. In contrast, Samsung recorded an all-time-high profit, growing a significant +58% YoY. Despite Apple's stalled performance, the US vendor and Samsung remain well in charge and they continued to capture a combined near-100% share of all worldwide profits in the quarter.

Global handset industry wholesale ASP jumped +12% YoY in Q1 2013. This was above the +10% YoY growth rate for all of 2012. Average pricing was boosted upwards during the first quarter by a much lower ratio of entry-level 2G handset volumes shipped in all regions worldwide.

Samsung led Industry revenues in Q1 2013, outpacing Apple by a narrow margin, to regain the no.1 position for the first time in two quarters. Samsung and Apple remain in a close race and together captured two-thirds of worldwide handset revenues, as the market has entered a duopoly-like situation. We believe Samsung dominates profits in the 3G Android phone segment, while Apple leads profits in the 4G LTE handset category.

This report provides quarterly global handset ASPs, revenues and profit metrics for multiple major handset OEMs from 2007 through 1Q 2013. Revenue share and profit share are also supplied. The report is a highly valuable tool for operators, component makers, automotive players and financial analysts who want to track the financial health and pricing of mobile phone vendors.

The new Jolla smartphone and Sailfish OS have been pre-released and created some global media coverage this week. Will Jolla and Sailfish take off or flop?

Our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service published a report on this a few months back and clients can read our analysis here.

Three recent television interviews, each about 5 minutes in length, from Neil Mawston and Neil Shah in our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) research service:

1. Wall Street Journal (WSJ) TV: What is Google and Android's Outlook?:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324715704578483542256150334.html


2. China Central Television (CCTV): Nokia, Blackberry and Smartphone Trends:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CGzEWkRJ4Q


3. Huawei TV Interview: What is the Outlook for the Chinese Giant in Mobile Devices?:
https://ubm.box.com/s/cp57ebmtjmoa8fv3kkre

Global handset shipments dipped 1% annually during the first quarter of 2013. Developed and emerging markets slowed, but Asia remained the world's fastest-growing region.

Samsung, Lenovo and Coolpad registered the highest global growth rates, starting the year on relatively positive notes. While Samsung maintained the pole position as the largest handset supplier worldwide, Chinese brand Coolpad (also known as Yulong Coolpad) entered the top 10 rankings for the first time surpassing HTC, BlackBerry and Motorola due to rising demand for its 3G/4G handsets in China, parts of Asia and expansion in US market.

Samsung with robust demand for its Galaxy handsets led in most of the regions globally followed by Nokia meanwhile Blackberry became a top three player in Africa with reasonable demand for its handsets in Nigeria and Middle East. Meanwhile LG also registered impressive performance and growth moving up in the rankings globally and in multiple regions.

Latest report from our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service details quarterly handset shipments and marketshare for the world's top 30 vendors in North America, Central & Latin America, Western Europe, Central & Eastern Europe, Africa Middle East and Asia Pacific. Historical data by quarter from Q1 2004 to Q1 2013 are also included.

VENDOR SHARE: Global Handset Market by Region: Q1 2013