• 07Jul

    Returning to temperate climes after my first “summer” visit to Las Vegas, I am more amazed than ever at Nevada residents’ ability to withstand daily temperatures of 40 degrees plus and practically zero humidity. At least I now know what 108 Fahrenheit feels like. The contrast between this and a proper British summer (a few days of 25C followed by cool cloud and rain) could not be more stark.

    Las Vegas’ Mandalay Bay was the venue for Cisco’s annual customer gathering, which this year also brought together a hundred or so analysts for in-depth discussion of product and commercial strategy. The highlight product announcement was the Cius, as reported by my colleague, Susan Welsh de Grimaldo. While the company has not officially announced pricing, I expect it to be closer to $1000 than $500. Cisco is quite clear that the Cius is positioned as an enterprise solution, and these prices are likely to prevent much leakage towards “unofficial” consumer markets.

    What was most interesting, perhaps, is the genesis of the Cius within the Cisco organisation. It was obvious from many conversations that few people were aware of its development until very shortly before its unveiling. Even John Chambers himself claims to have been unaware of it until two months ago. If the product proves successful it will be further justification of Cisco’s innovation in organisation and management which allows dynamic cross-fertilisation of ideas across multiple teams.

    The other news centered on home energy management, where Cisco is launching a “Home Energy Controller” allied to Cisco Energy Management Services, which will be offered by utility companies to help consumers understand and control their energy consumption. The Controller uses Zigbee, WiFi and other home networking technologies to exchange data with and, potentially, control a variety of home devices.

    Much of our discussion with Cisco execs centered on the challenges and opportunities for service providers offered by OTT video, as well as the potential for telepresence in the home environment. Telepresence has a been a success for Cisco in the corporate market, and it is still on track to bring a consumer solution to the market by the end of 2010.

    It still strikes many people, both in the industry and consumers, as odd that Cisco should have a serious consumer strategy. While its brand presence is growing, not many would consider it as a competitor to the Sonys, Samsungs and Apples of the world. And there is no doubt that the company’s financial power is built on its core network switching and routing market dominance.

    Cisco does have key positions in home networking and set-top boxes, as well as the TV and broadband service provider space, but the jury is still out on whether Cisco itself will become an overall leader in consumer markets over the next decade. But consumer players cannot ignore Cisco as an influence on market direction. Its innovation processes, as demonstrated by Cius, will combine with its financial strength to create a wave of consumer innovations over the coming years. Many may fail, but it will only take a few to be successful for rivals to feel the heat.

    Client Reading: Chasing the Elusive IPTV Business Model: NDS, Cisco and Comcast to the Rescue?

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    Posted by David Mercer @ 10:55 am

  • 26May

    Is it a sign of Trouble at’ Mill? Or just another corporate shake-up while business goes on as usual? Microsoft yesterday announced the departure of leading Entertainment and Devices executives Robbie Bach and J. Allard. Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer will take charge of the division, with Don Mattrick running the Xbox side and Andy Lees the mobile business.

    There are clearly problems for Microsoft in its mobile business. All the various iterations of its mobile phone software over the years have failed to make significant market impact as Apple and, now, Google, make the running.

    Microsoft’s biggest problem is that consumer is still a relatively small and fragmented part of its overall business. It’s losing out to Apple, and others, in the consumer market because its primary corporate focus continues to be business users of Windows. Apple, which, not through lack of effort, never achieved prominence in business markets, has been able to focus its strategy on the consumer space without the hindrance of adhering to a corporate software strategy.

    From Microsoft’s perspective it might seem logical to group Xbox, music players and mobile phones under one roof, but this makes less obvious sense to the outside world. Xbox has been successful largely because it has been left alone to formulate its own strategy focused on games, entertainment and the digital home. Dan Mattrick, whom I met last summer to discuss Xbox strategy, should now try to persuade Ballmer that the Xbox team needs to remain a discrete unit with liberty to forge its own direction, and if necessary outside of the demands of the corporate Windows strategy if necessary.

    With the launch of Natal imminent, the continued ramping up of online services based around the Xbox 360, and the plateauing of Xbox 360 sales, Microsoft can ill afford a dilution in focus because of this disruption to the senior management team.

    David Mercer

    Other Blog Posts Of Interest:
    PS3 Global Market Share Reached 31% in Q1 2010
    Sony’s PS3 to Win Current Games Console Battle; SA Forecasts 47.5 Million Global Console Market in 2010
    Sky Player Finally Arrives Where It Belongs, But Work Still to be Done
    TV or Videogame? 1 vs 100 on Xbox Live Offers Lifeline To Appointment Viewing

    Client Reading: Taming the Waves: Games Console Life Cycles and Platform Competition

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    Posted by David Mercer @ 11:43 am

  • 20May

    google-tv-logo.png
    I remember a couple of years ago, I read a great book called The Search: How Google and Its Rivals Rewrote the Rules of Business and Transformed Our Culture by John Battelle. In the book, the author depicted a scene that a mom ordered a baby diaper product for her kid due to a TV commercial shown on her TV. And this specific diaper commercial was displayed to her at this time because the advertising system knows her information and web search queries. This scene sounded for me at that time like a futuristic novel, which is beautiful but not realistic.

    Today Google announced Google TV, a product that could be a big stride toward realizing the scene. Basically, Google TV is a set-top-box that enables users to consume web content on the TV screens. Although it is not new and companies like Boxee are already doing this, it is still great to see that Google offers a nice integral interface between TV and web content so that you don’t have to press input button in order to switch to computer desktop. More importantly, you have the universal web search on your TV screen, which could potentially tap a huge advertising market for Google. TV advertising is a $165 billion market. And if the vividness of TV commercial could be combined with interactivity of online ads and the information of users search intention, it would create the new generation of TV advertising and help Google build its next multi-billion dollar business. I believe it is a great vision that Google has.

    But barriers remain. The vision will only be achieved if Google TV can hit critical mass. The key strategy for Google TV is to extend its search to more audiences rather than selling the boxes. To realize this strategy, Google TV needs to be adopted by mainstream population. But do normal users nowadays have clear understanding of Google TV and its benefits? Probably not. Even if they do, are they willing to spend money on the benefits and how much? We don’t know the price point for Google TV yet, but this is a question to be answered. If the value proposition is not strong enough, it is hard for Google TV to achieve mass adoption.

    Moreover, Google TV could potentially hurt cable business given the abundance of web content. If we can get the same show online for free, there is a fair change that we might want to cut our cable subscription. In this case, content producers’ largest revenue contributor, cable companies, will put more pressure on content owners, letting them put less shows online for free. Then we will either see less free premium content online or more paywalls for online premium videos. This may eventually make free web video content less compelling.

    In short, to achieve Google TV’s great strategy and vision, many consumer and operation related issues are waiting to be resolved. And implementing it is not an easy job.

    Jia Wu

    Posted by Jia Wu @ 10:33 pm

  • 06Apr

    “The FCC is not having a one-night stand with Net neutrality,” said FCC Commissioner Michael Copps back in 2008, “ but an affair of the heart and commitment for life.”  

    Today’s ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia may amount to a trial separation for the lovely couple. 

    The court delivered a painful kick in the shins to the FCC today, ruling that the agency  overstepped its boundaries in 2008 by imposing an enforcement action against Comcast, alleging the cable company’s  broadband network management practices to be in violation of the FCC’s policy principles. Today’s ruling vacates the enforcement, which had called on Comcast to be more transparent in its network management practices.  

    While today’s decision may raise more questions than it delivers answers, it may be useful to consider some of the short and medium term implications.  

    The court’s decision is more about the FCC’s authority than on “Net Neutrality” per se 

    My number one prediction?  The mainstream media will get it wrong.   They will suggest that this is a ruling against Net Neutrality.  To be clear, today’s ruling is about the role and the regulatory boundaries of the FCC—not necessarily a ruling against Net Neutrality or the concept of an Open Internet.  The FCC in a statement said the agency remains “committed to promoting an open Internet and to policies that will bring the enormous benefits of broadband to all Americans.”  

    This decision will be challenged, but that could take years.  In the meantime, look for the service providers to begin “testing the waters.”  

    I’m no lawyer, but as a more than casual industry observer, I can predict with some certainty that this is not a definitive ruling.  It will more than likely end up in the Supreme Court—but don’t make any plans yet.  Broadband is now classified by the FCC as a “lightly regulated information service,” and as such it skirts many the regulations imposed on traditional Telecom services with regards to open networks. Some suggest that the FCC, as a rulemaking body, can simply reclassify broadband, and impose tougher regulation.  

    Whatever the final disposition is, time is on the side of the service providers.  The glacial speed of change in DC means that in the upcoming months (and even years), Comcast and other service providers—granted a temporary reprieve—will likely begin testing the waters, and recommence traffic prioritization and other various and sundry network management antics.  

    What about OTT?  

    An affirmative decision on Net neutrality has always been a cornerstone of the future of unmanaged over-the-top (OTT) video.  Today’s ruling throws a monkey wrench in those works.  Until the next challenge, Comcast (and any service provider for that matter), reserves the right to prioritize and manage traffic streams as they see fit.   “Sure we’ll get your YouTube video—just not all at once.”

    And oh yeah, what about the future of the US National Broadband Policy?  

    Here’s hoping the FCC is reunited with its soul-mate. 

     -Ben Piper

    Posted by bpiper @ 8:44 pm

  • 24Feb

    It’s now another season for earning releases. With positive numbers from major companies, the media and tech sectors return to growth track along with the general economy.

    Despite the recession and the changing industry landscape, News Corp still generated $30.9 billion sales in 2009, which is 1.3 times Google’s revenue for the same period. News Corp is once again on the sustainable growth trajectory since the fourth quarter of 2009. Google, returning to decent growth in Q4 as well, generated $23.7 billion in 2009. But here, the interesting thing about their financials is that Google has a market capitalization of $172 billion in February 2010, while News Corp’s market value only hit $35 billion, which suggests a 7.26 price-to-sales ratio for Google and 1.13 for News Corp.

    So why does a company, which earns less money than the other, end up having 5 times more market value? Of course, it’s the future growth or expected growth. (Although factors such as profit margin play a role, it is the future growth that has the most impact on Market Cap.) Google clearly grows its revenue by 8.5% in 2009 over the previous year, whereas News Corp’s sales dropped by 5.5% in 2009. But given News Corp’s decent post-recession rebound in Q4 and Google’s growth deceleration for the past years, is the two companies’ difference of current growth trends big enough to make up the entire $137 billion Market Cap gap? I doubt it.

    The investors definitely expect way more revenues from Google in the future than it’s generating now in order to substantiate its high market value. And given Google’s heavy investment in different areas such as mobile, computer OS and social networks, there is a fairly high possibility for Google to achieve it. But here the question becomes where Google’s next Multi-billion dollar business is? Google has publicly stated that display advertising, which includes banner ads on its online properties and video ads on YouTube, will be the next billion dollar business. I have no doubt about it. But I doubt that the growth potential in display advertising is sufficient to support people’s expectations on Google. Strategy Analytics believes online video ads will be nice business in the coming years, but it is more of a traditional business model other than that of Google search ads. Search is all about aggregating users’ intention and monetizing on that, while display ads are just old-fashioned magazine types of impression selling. There is nothing wrong with the old ways of selling impression, but that is not what Google eventually aims for. Google needs a new multi-billion dollar business to go for, as the groundbreaking AdWords it has invented many years ago.

    Since most of Google’s new inventions are or will be free, like Android and Chrome OS, I believe that Google’s next multi-billion dollar business will remain in search, and all that Google is doing now aims to increase the world’s Internet users and usage, which will in turn make the pie of search advertising larger and larger. It remains unclear that if there will be enough advertising dollars in the market to reward Google for its research and development, but at least Google makes the world better.

    Jia Wu

    Posted by Jia Wu @ 4:04 pm

  • 15Jan

    In a report to be published in the few days, my colleague Martin Olausson and I talk about the new challenges facing France Telecom (Orange), in light of a recent ruling by the French Competition Authority.

    According to a commission appointed by France’s Competition Council, Orange’s exclusive carriage of channels on its “Orange TV” IPTV platform “has drawbacks in the short, medium, and long-term,” rendering it “undesirable to maintain.” This decision could potentially have repercussions on the entire industry, and Orange will need to fundamentally alter its marketing strategy to stay in the game.

    A few thoughts…

    If not content, then what?

    Strategy Analytics has long held that content—particularly exclusive content—would be a key differentiator and driver of IPTV uptake. Recent developments in the hyper-competitive French market threaten to change that model. 

    Orange, which was unable to differentiate itself on the basic services level, has pursued an aggressive content strategy in recent years, spending over €200 million to acquire exclusive rights to sports and other content, packaged under its Orange Sport and Orange Cinéma Séries brands. The strategy has worked quite well for the operator, and utilizing exclusive content to market its pay TV services has led to rapid growth of its pay TV segments.

    Now all of that is in limbo, and the operator will need to find other ways to stand out.

    Pricing matters…but differs by region

    One of the takeaways of a report we published back in September was that platforms don’t matter to customers—features do.   Well, features and price.

    Further customer survey work we have just completed confirms that price as a churn motivator depends largely on the individual market. Our research shows French consumers to be the least motivated by price, and those in the UK most influenced.

    DTV_CHURN2

    Much of this has to do with consumer perception. In France, all the major triple play service providers offer very similar packages at essentially the same price. Our interpretation is that the typical French consumer might not feel it worth the time to make a switch—even for a 20% discount. The perceived disparity is much greater in markets such as the UK, where pricing and bundling disparities are much more pronounced.

    Challenge is in finding ‘non-content differentiators’

    The recent ruling by France’s Competition Council suggests that the “traditional” differentiation through content may not be viable for much longer. As such, operators will be forced to find other ways to differentiate and “own” the customer. The easiest way to do this, in our opinion, is to control the gateway into the home and offer a better QoE, and more value for money (i.e. better bundles) for the consumers than the competition.

    Posted by bpiper @ 7:03 pm

  • 06Jan

    The depth of the recession in the US consumer electronics market was highlighted today by CEA data which confirmed a decline in dollar revenues in 2009 of 12%. The outlook for 2010 improves but only in the sense that the rate of decline falls to 3%.

    In the meantime we’re hearing news of new 3D TV channels already, with both ESPN and Discovery throwing their hats into the ring. This is great, if expected, news for the many 3D-ready TVs we expect to see over the next few days.

    At this evening’s CES Unveiled event Sensio were showing their passive 3DTV, even though the company today announced its partnership with Visio to launch an active 3DTV later this year. Mitsubishi was also showing its laser 3DTV with the adaptor which will be necessary for compatibility with Blu-ray 3D players when they are lauinched.

    Logitech was showing its new Lapdesk N700, a laptop “cushion” with in-built speakers designed for enhanced laptop usage in the comfort of the armchair. The peripheral retails at $89.99 and also features an in-built cooling fan to prevent over-hearing, a familiar problem for those many TV viewers who now sit with a laptop on their knees. Logitech have thoughtfully added a grip to help keep the laptop steady, but unfortunately in my case it failed to prevent the Macpro falling to the floor. No damage done, luckily, but perhaps evidence of a need for further improvement in design.

    Logitech was also demonstrating the fruits of its recently closed acquisition of Lifesize Communications, a videoconferencing specialist. On display was its Passport set-top videoconferencing device. This retails at $2500 and allows anyone with a minimum 2-way 1Mbps broadband connection to communicate using HD video (720p). The service downscales to lower resolutions for slower bandwidth connections. Logitech claims that this device is a third of the price of any other similar product on the market. That may be true today but is unlikely to remain so for much longer. Videoconferencing and telepresence are shaping up to be one of the emerging trends of this CES and we will hear a lot more over the next few days, in addition to the Skype/Panasonic/LG announcement today.

    Yet another OTT video set-top box was being demonstrated by Syabas with its Popbox product. This grew out of the company’s Popcorn Hour device. The Popbox has been designed to be especially user-friendly, and the user interface does appear attractive and accessible. The service integrates currently 20 “content application channels”, which means things like Netflix, and is working with 200 application developers. It will launch in March 2010 and retail at $129, plus $20 for the optional WiFi module. The Popbox is 1080p-capable, although the only 1080p content was demonstration material. If Syabas manages to sign 1080p deals with content providers it will certainly be a step ahead of most competitors.

    ProVision CEO Steve Cliffe was confident enough in his company’s wireless HD technology to carry a laptop across the show floor while it streamed 1080i HD content, and there was no loss or deterioration in signal. This UK firm was founded by professors at Bristol University, and uses proprietary error correction and RF management techniques to improve HD video streaming over 802.11n. The company is talking to set-top box and TV manufacturers looking to support HD distribution to multiple home devices.

    Another UK firm, Imagination Technologies, was launching its Pure digital radio products for the US market. Pure is the leader in the UK but virtually unknown overseas. It will, rightly, tread carefully as it enters the notoriously challenging US market, and will obviously (since the standard is not used) drop DAB from its US product line-up, instead concentrating purely (sorry) on internet radio. Its Sensia product is the highlight of the range and features a full-colour touch screen LCD display as well as additional interactive capabilities like Twitter and Facebook. Pure confirmed to us that video-capable devices are a natural step forward and can be expected in the next year or so.

    Client Reading: HDTV: Standards Muddle Clouds Outlook For Wireless Displays

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    Posted by David Mercer @ 7:46 am

  • 01Oct

    Cisco has agreed to acquire Tandberg, the videoconferencing specialist based in Norway, for around $3bn. Cisco has long targeted video conferencing, or telepresence, as a major growth opportunity, and also sees a mass consumer market for home telepresence solutions in the longer term.

    The Tandberg move will boost Cisco’s position in the global corporate telepresence market, which has been a growth segment in recent years, and not just because companies are cutting back on travel.

    Our main interest, of course, is the emergence of consumer telepresence solutions and other emerging media businesses. Cisco states that it hopes the Tandberg group, which will become the Telepresence Technology Group within the Emerging Technologies Group at Cisco, will drive video innovation. We look forward to hearing how Tandberg will drive further innovation in the critical video element in Cisco’s strategy.

    Twitter: twitter.com/DavidMercer_SA

    Client Reading: Digital Media Devices Global Market Report

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    Posted by David Mercer @ 9:35 am

  • 16Sep

    As the doors close on another IBC the general feeling is that things could have been a whole lot worse. The organisers have just confirmed attendance at 45,547, including exhibitors, which is 7% lower than 2008. If exhibitors are excluded the figure fell by only 5%. This is considerably “less bad” than pre-show predictions, which understandably were based on other major 2009 events where attendance had fallen by 20% or more.

    Certainly the feeling walking the show floors was that it was just as easy, literally, to “bump” into old colleagues as in previous years. More importantly, feedback from exhibitors was generally positive.

    As our own research indicates, the full year outcome for the broadcast and professional media sector in 2009 is expected to be an overall 14% decline in sales. Even with a stabilisation at this stage there is nothing much that can be done to offset the severe downturn which began late last year and continued into the first half of 09.

    But it does now seem as though we have hit the bottom, and as several exhibitors pointed out to us, deals are being signed and customers continue to plan for the future. It may not be a comfortable economy just yet, but life goes on. Overall we are expecting this to translate to an upturn of nearly 5% sales growth in 2010.

    Client Reading: Media Storage Offers Hope During Economic Gloom

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    Posted by David Mercer @ 3:36 pm

  • 09Apr

    Much of the commentary around Cisco’s push into consumer devices has focused on its wireless audio system, home media hub and, most recently, the newly acquired Flip Video business. But as we discuss in our new report published today - Cisco’s Consumer Strategy: Will the Network Transform the Digital Home?  – the company’s long term success is likely to depend as much, if not more, on the less high profile media strategy as on its forays into consumer electronics.

    Cisco’s Media Solutions Group (MSG) was formed more than two years ago but only came out into the open at the beginning of this year. Its objective is to sell the benefits of network-based internet media delivery platforms to content owners. It claims to save content owners from a great deal of the pain usually associated with establishing and maintaining content-focused websites. Critically, it also intends to be synergetic with Cisco’s consumer devices so that problems associated with content re-purposing and re-formatting across multiple devices, something which is a real cost concern to media companies, can be minimised. MSG’s core offer is the Eos platform, and you can see it in action at allseanpaul.com.

    Our report finds that Cisco has a good opportunity of reaching annual revenues from consumer activities that will put the company in a league similar to some of today’s leading technology brands. It will surprise some that the company already does business in the region of $4bn in consumer related sectors through its set-top box and home networking operations. With a substantial cash pile to support further acquisitions, and with the rest of the consumer electronics industry suffering from the global economic turmoil, it is much too soon to write off Cisco’s chances of sustaining an assault on the market leaders over the coming years.

    Twitter: twitter.com/DavidMercer_SA

    Client Reading: Cisco’s Consumer Strategy: Will the Network Transform the Digital Home?

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