• 02Sep

    It’s been implied on more than one occasion by various commentators that the arrival of 3DTV is “too soon” because many people have only recently bought their first HDTV and will be reluctant to invest once again in a new technology.

    The argument makes sense on the surface, but, as usual, a little digging into real data tends to prove otherwise. Our survey of 700 UK consumers found that current HDTV owners were in fact more than twice as likely to be interested in buying a 3DTV than non-HDTV owners. Specifically, 13% of HDTV owners say they are “somewhat” or “very likely” to buy a 3DTV during the next 12 months, compared to 6% of non-HDTV owners.

    Given that HDTVs are still in only half of UK households, this hardly suggests that 3DTV’s prospects are being held back because people have already bought an HDTV set. The truth is that it’s likely to be the same early adopters who bought HDTV who will also go out and buy the next latest and greatest TV technology.

    We’ll be presenting these and many more insights from our research at a free-to-attend analyst forum during this year’s IBC, and Sky’s Brian Lenz, who has headed up the company’s 3D initiative, will be giving the audience his thoughts on our findings as well as an update on Sky’s 3D launch plans. Attendees are invited to register in advance by visiting www.strategyanalytics.com/ibc2010.html.

    Meet Our Analysts: 3DTV Analyst Forum at IBC 2010

    Add to Technorati Favorites

    Posted by David Mercer @ 7:13 pm

  • 27Aug

    3DTV will again be one of the hot topics at this year’s IBC in Amsterdam. Unlike previous years, however, discussions and demonstrations will take place against the background of broadcasters delivering commercial 3D services to residential TV viewers. Since earlier this year 3D television programmes have been broadcast, if only on a selective basis, to viewers of some cable, satellite and IPTV services in the US and Europe. But as sales of 3D-capable TVs begin to take off, Sky’s UK launch of the first full-time 3DTV channel on October 1st will confirm the arrival of 3DTV as a fully fledged consumer proposition.

    But compared to the excessive hype which has built up over the last couple of years as the industry geared up for launch, the mood this year may appear to be markedly more realistic, and tinged with more notes of caution than were previously evident. It’s still too early to discuss consumer reaction to fully fledged home 3DTV services (as opposed to any of the out-of-home options) – the number of people who have actually seen a 3DTV broadcast in the comfort of their own homes is still tiny. But pre-launch surveys are suggesting 3D in general may not become the sure-fire success many were hoping for.

    Strategy Analytics’ own consumer surveys suggest a very mixed response across the board. Our survey of European consumers is still in the field, but the first results from the US suggest that the industry must at least overcome doubts about the health impact of watching 3DTV. More than half of respondents are unsure whether watching 3DTV can cause damage to the eyes, and 17% actually believe that 3DTV may cause damage. With the level of uncertainty the industry clearly has a lot of work to do to bring 3DTV to the mass market.

    Overall we found that 11% of people are somewhat or very likely to buy a 3DTV during the coming year. This may not sound a lot but it’s not bad for a newly launched technology. What’s interesting is the impact of previous 3D experiences on buying intentions. In total 60% of Americans say they have seen a 3D movie at the cinema, and a quarter say they have been very impressed with the quality of the 3D experience. Those people are four times more likely to buy a 3DTV than people who say they were not impressed with 3D at the cinema. This may not be surprising, but it demonstrates the importance to the industry of continuing to improve the 3D experience in the cinema in order to meet its overall goal of bringing 3D to the home viewer.

    We’ll be presenting many more findings from our research at our free-to-attend analyst forum during this year’s IBC, and Sky’s Brian Lenz, who has headed up the company’s 3D initiative, will be giving the audience his thoughts on our findings as well as an update on Sky’s 3D launch plans. Attendees are invited to register in advance by visiting www.strategyanalytics.com/ibc2010.html.

    Meet Our Analysts: 3DTV Analyst Forum at IBC 2010

    Add to Technorati Favorites

    Posted by David Mercer @ 12:38 pm

  • 24Aug

    Strategy Analytics’ latest consumer survey indicates great uncertainty over the potential health effects of watching 3DTV. 17% of our 2000 US survey respondents say they believe that watching 3DTV will cause damage to their eyes. Perhaps even more significant is that more than half of respondents are uncertain whether 3DTV has a health impact one way or the other. Faced with that level of doubt, 3DTV marketers - both TV set manufacturers and broadcasters - have some work to do to convince people that 3D is something worth risking their health on.

    The truth of the matter remains a subject of some debate. In response to the fact that some viewers report feeling unwell after watching 3D, or can only watch comfortably for limited periods, some claim that these impacts will be reduced as the technology matures. Whatever the case, the industry clearly must get to grips with the communications issue before unsubstantiated rumours get out of hand.

    We’ll be presenting more details on our new 3DTV research at this year’s IBC in Amsterdam. You can also hear BSkyB’s Brian Lenz discuss his own company’s plans for 3DTV. Attendance is complimentary but we encourage pre-registration as space is limited:

    Meet Our Analysts: 3DTV Analyst Forum at IBC 2010

    Add to Technorati Favorites

    Posted by David Mercer @ 8:11 pm

  • 23Aug

    It’s no surprise that a majority of early iPad buyers had already bought into the Apple ecosystem, but the fact that fully 90% of people who say they will buy an iPad during the next 12 months already own an Apple device is perhaps surprising. It might have been reasonable to assume that the novelty of the tablet form factor would open up a whole new wave of potential customers attracted by its innovative design, regardless of how familiar they were with the benefits of Apple’s user interface and design.

    It seems, however, that in the early days at least demand for the iPad will be met almost entirely by existing Apple owners. Our survey of 2000 US consumers also suggests that a third or more of existing iPhone and Macbook owners have already gained access to an iPad (at least they say they have used one at home). And nearly a half of the early iPad adopters say they are somewhat or very likely to buy another iPad during the coming year – an indication of strong customer satisfaction if ever there was one.

    So how should Apple respond to this news? On the one hand the company should relax in the knowledge that so many of its core and loyal customers are saving up to buy the company’s latest device. On the other hand, there may be just the slightest concern that the iPad has so far failed to win new hearts and minds amongst the half of US homes which do not already own at least one Apple product.

    That may change as the tablet category becomes more widely recognised. New entrants will shortly be flooding the market with iPad alternatives which will help raise general awareness of this new category. As Apple struggles to meet demand from its existing customers, the opportunity is there for competitors to target the remaining market segments with iPad alternatives.

    Client Reading: Apple’s iPad: Identifying Early Adopters and Intentions to Buy

    Meet Our Analysts: 3DTV Analyst Forum at IBC 2010

    Add to Technorati Favorites

    Posted by David Mercer @ 3:52 pm

  • 17Aug

    We’re delighted to announce our plans for this year’s IBC in Amsterdam. For many years now Strategy Analytics has offered an analyst forum focusing on key topics relevant to the television and broadcast industries. This year we are focusing on 3DTV, still very much the hot topic in the industry, especially as we head towards the commercial launch of 3D residential services in Europe when Sky launches 3D on October 1st. With that in mind we are pleased that BSkyB’s Brian Lenz, who has spearheaded the company’s development of a 3D service, will join us to discuss our latest research findings and update everyone on the latest news from BSkyB. We’ll present hot-off-the-press consumer findings from our latest surveys, and our colleagues from D. I. S. Consulting will also unveil the latest research from the production community.

    It should be a great session to kick off the first full day of the show. The event is free of charge but as we have limited space we’re expecting a full house so please register your interest as soon as possible.

    3DTV Analyst Forum at IBC 2010: Strategy Analytics and D. I. S Consulting
    Saturday 11th September 2010
    Holiday Inn, “Manhattan” Room, De Boelelaan 2, 1083 HJ Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Schedule
    8.00-8.30 Networking Breakfast
    8.30-9.10 New 3D Research: Analyst Presentations
    9.10-9.30 Guest Speaker: Brian Lenz, Director of Product Development, BSkyB
    9.30-10.00 Panel and Audience Q&A

    Client Reading: Video Capture Devices: Global Market Forecast

    Add to Technorati Favorites

    Posted by David Mercer @ 5:26 pm

  • 27Jul

    A year ago almost to the day we called for Ofcom to put an end to ISPs’ ridiculous practice of describing broadband speeds with the meaningless phrase “up to”. Now Ofcom is again skirting around the issue in its latest survey of UK broadband speeds. Its own data shows that while “headline” speeds (ie the theoretical maximum – and even they are not true) have increased significantly over the past year, the actual speed achieved as a proportion of that “top” speed has actually fallen, from 58% to 46%. The craziness is illustrated further by the fact that the average speed attained by customers subscribing to “up to 20Mbps” packages is only 6.8Mbps, ie lower than the “headline” speed of inferior “up to 8Mbps” packages.

    The average download speed for all DSL connections has increased by only 10% over the past 12 months, from 3.7Mbps to 4.0Mbps, in spite of the fact that many more customers are being offered “up to” 20Mbps packages (ie DSL 2+). Note that the primary factor behind the higher increase in UK speeds overall is because of Virgin Media’s upgrading of its cable service: average cable broadband speeds have more than doubled, from 4.9Mbps to 9.9Mbps. That’s a testament to the growing strength of the UK’s cable operator, and an indictment of the recent supposed improvements in the DSL network.

    Ofcom’s excuse regarding regulating the “up to” nonsense is that this is not its job, but that of the advertising regulator. We regard this as a cop-out. Ofcom does have a Voluntary Code of Practice which “ensures that consumers are given the clearest possible information on access line speeds at point of sale”, and if that doesn’t relate to advertising, I don’t know what does.

    The Code of Practice talks a lot about maximum speeds, but not about minimums. This now has to change. Even with the well-known limitations of DSL technology, in the second decade of the 21st century customers have a right to know what minimum level of service they should expect to receive in return for their hard-earned pounds. BT will moan that it cannot yet deliver a minimum of 2Mbps to some parts of the country, so those remoter rural areas should be considered a special case, where “true” broadband (however that is defined) is technically (and temporarily) unavailable. This all goes back to early political demands that broadband be made “universally” available, and the politically inspired nonsense that 99% of UK homes can get DSL broadband services. Yes, but only if you count 250kbps as broadband.

    We need to step back so that we can move forward. The reality is that a small percentage – perhaps 5% - of UK homes are currently out of reach of 1-2Mbps+ broadband services, and remain “geographically challenging”. That needs to be accepted as a policy issue and targeted accordingly. The market as a whole should no longer be distorted because of this artificial and technical constraint. Once those homes are identified, the rest of the country should be given guarantees of minimum service, and tiered services will emerge which will give customers a great deal more clarity and confidence than they have had until now.

    Client Reading: Global Broadband Scorecard: 2010 Broadband Composite Index (BCI) Rankings

    Add to Technorati Favorites

    Posted by David Mercer @ 10:30 am

  • 07Jul

    Returning to temperate climes after my first “summer” visit to Las Vegas, I am more amazed than ever at Nevada residents’ ability to withstand daily temperatures of 40 degrees plus and practically zero humidity. At least I now know what 108 Fahrenheit feels like. The contrast between this and a proper British summer (a few days of 25C followed by cool cloud and rain) could not be more stark.

    Las Vegas’ Mandalay Bay was the venue for Cisco’s annual customer gathering, which this year also brought together a hundred or so analysts for in-depth discussion of product and commercial strategy. The highlight product announcement was the Cius, as reported by my colleague, Susan Welsh de Grimaldo. While the company has not officially announced pricing, I expect it to be closer to $1000 than $500. Cisco is quite clear that the Cius is positioned as an enterprise solution, and these prices are likely to prevent much leakage towards “unofficial” consumer markets.

    What was most interesting, perhaps, is the genesis of the Cius within the Cisco organisation. It was obvious from many conversations that few people were aware of its development until very shortly before its unveiling. Even John Chambers himself claims to have been unaware of it until two months ago. If the product proves successful it will be further justification of Cisco’s innovation in organisation and management which allows dynamic cross-fertilisation of ideas across multiple teams.

    The other news centered on home energy management, where Cisco is launching a “Home Energy Controller” allied to Cisco Energy Management Services, which will be offered by utility companies to help consumers understand and control their energy consumption. The Controller uses Zigbee, WiFi and other home networking technologies to exchange data with and, potentially, control a variety of home devices.

    Much of our discussion with Cisco execs centered on the challenges and opportunities for service providers offered by OTT video, as well as the potential for telepresence in the home environment. Telepresence has a been a success for Cisco in the corporate market, and it is still on track to bring a consumer solution to the market by the end of 2010.

    It still strikes many people, both in the industry and consumers, as odd that Cisco should have a serious consumer strategy. While its brand presence is growing, not many would consider it as a competitor to the Sonys, Samsungs and Apples of the world. And there is no doubt that the company’s financial power is built on its core network switching and routing market dominance.

    Cisco does have key positions in home networking and set-top boxes, as well as the TV and broadband service provider space, but the jury is still out on whether Cisco itself will become an overall leader in consumer markets over the next decade. But consumer players cannot ignore Cisco as an influence on market direction. Its innovation processes, as demonstrated by Cius, will combine with its financial strength to create a wave of consumer innovations over the coming years. Many may fail, but it will only take a few to be successful for rivals to feel the heat.

    Client Reading: Chasing the Elusive IPTV Business Model: NDS, Cisco and Comcast to the Rescue?

    Add to Technorati Favorites

    Posted by David Mercer @ 10:55 am

  • 26May

    Is it a sign of Trouble at’ Mill? Or just another corporate shake-up while business goes on as usual? Microsoft yesterday announced the departure of leading Entertainment and Devices executives Robbie Bach and J. Allard. Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer will take charge of the division, with Don Mattrick running the Xbox side and Andy Lees the mobile business.

    There are clearly problems for Microsoft in its mobile business. All the various iterations of its mobile phone software over the years have failed to make significant market impact as Apple and, now, Google, make the running.

    Microsoft’s biggest problem is that consumer is still a relatively small and fragmented part of its overall business. It’s losing out to Apple, and others, in the consumer market because its primary corporate focus continues to be business users of Windows. Apple, which, not through lack of effort, never achieved prominence in business markets, has been able to focus its strategy on the consumer space without the hindrance of adhering to a corporate software strategy.

    From Microsoft’s perspective it might seem logical to group Xbox, music players and mobile phones under one roof, but this makes less obvious sense to the outside world. Xbox has been successful largely because it has been left alone to formulate its own strategy focused on games, entertainment and the digital home. Dan Mattrick, whom I met last summer to discuss Xbox strategy, should now try to persuade Ballmer that the Xbox team needs to remain a discrete unit with liberty to forge its own direction, and if necessary outside of the demands of the corporate Windows strategy if necessary.

    With the launch of Natal imminent, the continued ramping up of online services based around the Xbox 360, and the plateauing of Xbox 360 sales, Microsoft can ill afford a dilution in focus because of this disruption to the senior management team.

    David Mercer

    Other Blog Posts Of Interest:
    PS3 Global Market Share Reached 31% in Q1 2010
    Sony’s PS3 to Win Current Games Console Battle; SA Forecasts 47.5 Million Global Console Market in 2010
    Sky Player Finally Arrives Where It Belongs, But Work Still to be Done
    TV or Videogame? 1 vs 100 on Xbox Live Offers Lifeline To Appointment Viewing

    Client Reading: Taming the Waves: Games Console Life Cycles and Platform Competition

    Add to Technorati Favorites

    Posted by David Mercer @ 11:43 am

  • 19May

    As our recent report pointed out, the potential of internet and IPTV has failed to materialise. One area of untapped potential is interactive or targeted advertising. In spite of more than a decade of red button adverts in the UK these services have never proved commercially viable and in fact were recently withdrawn completely by Sky.

    Trials of new technologies continue, however, and Sky has just completed a trial called Adsmart. Its partner was Mediacom, using technology from Packetvision and ads from Nat West, the UK bank. Mediacom’s Managing Partner of Implementation & Futures Rhys McLachlan, presenting at this morning’s Broadcast and Beyond conference, called the trial a technical success, but went on to describe the key findings, most of which seemed to present targeted TV ads not so much as an uphill battle as an attempt at Mount Everest.

    The first conclusion is that current television audience segmentations are ‘rudimentary’ at best. In spite of using Sky’s own extensive customer database, McClachlan concluded that the segmentations currently used ‘cannot be validated’. As far as advertisers are concerned there is simply no consensus on how such audience data should be employed.

    Mediacom also found that it was very difficult to find the right metric for audience measurement, and that, critically, it was very difficult to prove the ROI from targeted ads.

    Finally, in spite of the advanced technology used, there was simply no proof that advertisements had been delivered and viewed. Effectiveness measurement depended simply on ‘good faith and intuition’.

    In spite of these challenges investment in advanced advertising trials continues, and broadband is the key to the future success, according to McClachy. The biggest challenge of all is developing technology which can help advertisers differentiate between single and multi viewer consumption. As we have also noted previously, asking TV viewers to log in, as some emerging services do, does not solve this problem. Even with the latest advanced technologies in the IPTV world, it seems there is still a long way to go before advertisers will be convinced to spend money on using them.

    David Mercer

    Client Reading: Chasing the Elusive IPTV Business Model: NDS, Cisco and Comcast to the Rescue?

    Add to Technorati Favorites

    Posted by David Mercer @ 4:26 pm

  • 14May

    Sony’s newest home console gained market share in terms of global sales in the first quarter of 2010. PS3 sales reached 2.2 million units, out of a total for the three main rivals of 7.2 million, giving it a 31% share. This compares to an 18% share a year earlier, and 28% in the previous quarter, Q409.

    In spite of declining sales, the Wii actually maintained its market share in Q1, with 49% of sales. It was the Xbox 360 which lost share compared to the previous quarter, selling 1.5 million and giving it 21% of global sales. This was, however, an increase in a year ago, when the 360 had 19% of the market.

    The companies’ data remain pretty much in line with Strategy Analytics’ own projections for full year 2010 performance, as published in March 2010 in our report, “Taming the Waves: Games Console Life Cycles and Platform Competition”.

    There are three major uncertainties for 2010 sales: the extent of the decline in sales of the Wii; whether system enhancements can improve the performance of the Xbox 360 in the second half; and whether improvements in the PS3’s sales can be sustained through the rest of the year. For the moment we continue to predict global PS3 sales of 14.0 million in 2010, compared to 17.5 million Wiis and 10.5 million Xbox 360s. This will represent an overall decline in current generation console sales of 9%.

    David Mercer

    Client Reading: Taming the Waves: Games Console Life Cycles and Platform Competition

    Add to Technorati Favorites

    Posted by David Mercer @ 5:06 pm

« Previous Entries   

Recent Comments

  • These guys claim to be able to deliver 3D movies on an XBOX ...
  • I think we more or less agree. As I said, these PCs will app...
  • I have to say I think you might be missing the point of thes...
  • The entertainment operating system (EOS) was an interesting ...
  • Very good summary of some key data !...