Digital Consumer

• 04Feb

  Sony Upbeat As PS3 closes in on Xbox

  Games No Comments

  We met with Sony Playstation’s senior European executives today for a performance update and to hear plans for 2010 and beyond. After what the company described as a challenging 2009 the PS3 nevertheless appears to be in a strong position as we enter 2010. I can’t release any detailed European market data yet, but we will be publishing our own estimates and forecast for console sales very shortly.

  But the general global outlook for the current generation of home consoles appears to be clear. In terms of annual sales volumes Nintendo’s Wii is entering a period of decline, although its global performance in 2009 held up well. The Xbox 360 has peaked in terms of annual sales, while sales of the PS3 are still on an upward trajectory. So while the PS3 still ranks third globally in terms of installed base, this situation may not last much longer.

  Much depends on assumptions about the longevity of these platforms. As we have always argued, the PS3 was designed with longest term vision in mind, and that is now being demonstrated by global sales patterns. However the uncertainty surrounds the impact of system upgrades such as Natal and Sony’s motion controller. These are likely to give renewed impetus to both platforms.

  We’ll release our conclusions together with market data projections in the next week or so.

  Client Reading: Consumer Imperatives for Digital TV Media Browsers

  

• 28Jan

  Apple underwhelms after tablet hype-fest: iPad needs to become more than a “big iPhone”

  Vendors, Connected TV, Digital media, Wireless No Comments

  Apple cynics seem to have taken the initiative following the announcement of Apple’s iPad internet tablet. I tend to shy away from anything as hyped as this product has been. Surely the most hyped Apple device ever… And for that reason alone I am feeling underwhelmed. Is the iPad really what this was all building up to?

  Let’s think about the applications:

  Books - ok, I get this. if you want e-books this seems like a reasonable way to carry and read them. A nice way to read newspapers as well – I’m not sure the publishers will make money from it though.

  Web browsing and applications - I suppose the brower must work well. This is definitely the primary set of apps in my view. Consumers need an easy and fast way to get to websites quickly when they’re at home and don’t want to boot up the laptop.

  Music - ok, but who would rather listen to their music through a 1.5 pound portable device with (presumably) tinny speakers rather than either a) a small iPhone/Pod plus headphones, or b) plus docking device?

  Photos - yes of course – iPad could be a very nice digital photo frame.

  Games - could eventually become a killer app but control and input functions will need to be adapted to a larger screen device and iPhone app developers need to get to work to match the screen’s HD resolution.

  Productivity applications - I’m struggling here. is this really how the iPad is going to get used? The virtual keyboard may be good, although early reports are not promising. But think about how are people going to hold or rest this device: sitting down in a chair - it would have to rest on the flat table, so you are leaning over it to use it properly. Sitting in an armchair - so it’s on your lap, but again you have trouble positioning the screen at the right angle; or standing, so you hold it resting in one arm and only have one arm free to touch the screen. Or you use a stand and add-on keyboard, and it becomes… a laptop! OK, maybe the iPad could be used occasionally for productivity applications, but I just don’t see this device as a breakthrough for work-based devices.

  and finally… Video.
  Video playback is reported as stunning - I can believe this. But where are the extra video content applications or TV deals? The specialised video apps like TV-transfer? No HDMI for TV connection? Apple seems to be struggling more than ever to break into the home video market in a big way.

  And no multi-tasking… this is crazy. I can’t play music while I surf?!

  Form factor: maybe I was expecting too much from Apple, but really the iPad is hardly a revelation. Have they done what we expected? ie take all previous tablet-type implementations, improved on them and added innovative style and usability and content integration to create a unique package? I don’t see this from what I’ve read and seen. And it’s too heavy to be held in one hand, much heavier than some e-readers.

  Wireless:
  So the key question - how often would this device be used in truly mobile situations, and of those situations, how often would a user need to have cellular data service? The cellular service can be bought ad hoc - and I think it will be primarily. Not much new recurring revenue for carriers there then…

  The iPad is surely primarily a “free data” wifi device. It doesn’t need always-on connectivity for messages and voice - I’m always going to carry a phone for those. I can get online for websites and apps via hotspots when needed, and primarily use my home broadband to load it up with content.

  Having said all this, of course the lower than expected price points mean they will sell millions to Apple fans who won’t blink at spending another $500 on the latest Jobs gizmo.

  (And did anyone at Apple really not investigate the unfortunate connotations of the device name for the female market? - one wonders if Jobs has really lost his touch.)

  Client Reading: Consumer Imperatives for Digital TV Media Browsers

  

• 11Jan

  CES 2010: Two Cool Gadgets from Sony and Plastic Logic

  Technology, Connected TV, Digital media No Comments

  Sony has introduced what it calls a new device category at CES 2010: the “Personal Internet Viewer”. This takes the form of Dash, a small, 7” touch screen internet access device with WiFi access to the home network. It will launch in April 2010 and retail at $199. Dash is based on Flash technology, so, “for Flash, get Dash”.

  Dash is based on Chumby’s internet service. It currently features more than 1000 internet services and applications across social networking, news, music and video, and can access video from Sony’s Bravia internet video platform. It can run multiple applications simultaneously. One drawback is that it is only mains-powered, so in-home portability is out of the question. Nevertheless we felt this was a very nice implementation of a simple to use, and relatively inexpensive internet access device. At $199 it could well become a favourite for kitchens and bedrooms.

  We were also impressed with the progress made by Plastic Logic, a company originating from the well-known hub for advanced display technologies – Cambridge in the UK. PL was showing off its QUE ProReader e-reader. At $649 the product is aimed very much at the professional needing to access multiple documents on the move, such as newspapers, books, newsletters and reports. Barnes and Noble is behind the QUE bookstore, and connectivity is via WiFi and AT&T’s 3G network. The device is extremely thin, light and easy to read, and battery life is supposedly several days in normal use. If volume sales lead to cost efficiencies and price declines this technology could find its way into the mass market. In the meantime the company is looking towards adding colour and eventually video capabilities.

  Client Reading: Consumer Imperatives for Digital TV Media Browsers

  

• 09Jan

  CES 2010: Connected TV Land Grab Continues – Updates from Boxee, Yahoo and Sonic

  Connected TV, Digital media No Comments

  We met with Boxee which was demonstrating its first set-top box, developed by D-Link and based on Nvidia’s Tegra 2 chip. This is a powerful platform allowing full HD capability. The box will not include an integrated HDD in order to keep the price below $200, but supports USB drive attachments. It will ship in 1H10 in the US and Canada. Boxee let slip to us that they also expect it to be available “shortly after” in Europe. Boxee currently has 750,000 users through its PC-based platform. This device is certain to give a boost to those numbers and looks like a compelling new entry into the connected TV market.

  Meanwhile, Yahoo continues to make progress with its connected TV offer. In spite of our scepticism over the widget strategy, based on our own user research, Yahoo expects to have shipped between 3 and 5 million TVs globally by the end of Q110. 60% of sales have been in Europe and the remainder in the US. The company’s target is to have shipped in between 10 and 12 million devices by 2011. Like other connected TV companies their goal is to develop a large scale platform from which monetisation of app stores, advertising and other opportunities can be realised. As things stand today Yahoo appears to be fairly well positioned, but it will come under threat from many alternatives over the next few months, and TV manufacturers will be wary of becoming too dependent on a single partner.

  One competitor could be Sonic Solutions’ Roxio/CinemaNow platform, which is being repositioned as a white label service for retailers and device manufacturers. Indeed, as we were meeting Sonic was in discussion with one of the major US retailers. It makes sense that retailers would be interested in selling connected TV services in addition to the devices on which they make small margins. We can expect to see a great deal of activity in this space in the US and Europe over the coming year as the connected TV landgrab continues.

  Client Reading: Consumer Imperatives for Digital TV Media Browsers

  

• 06Jan

  Toshiba at CES: Blu-ray Is Launched, But Don’t Blink or You’ll Miss It

  Connected TV, HD and 3DTV No Comments

  Toshiba’s press conference focused almost exclusively on the launch of Cell TV in the US market. We have followed the progress of Cell technology for nearly the past decade, since Toshiba, Sony and IBM began its development. As a reminder, it lies at the heart of the PlayStation 3 system, and Toshiba has always made its intentions clear to launch a range of other consumer devices using the processor technology.

  Cell TV will use Cell for various capabilities: to deliver 3D pictures from 2D sources; to upscale video, including video from internet sources; and to support “Autoview”, which sets the TV picture automatically and adjusts for the room’s colour temperature. I did not get the chance to examine the performance of Cell in these tasks – I hope to see detailed demonstrations later this week.

  Cell TV will be Toshiba’s flagship model this year. It will also feature a range of connected TV features, including wireless HD (the WirelessHD standard), 802.11n, DLNA, USB movie, Net TV channels and videophone. Yes, like LG and Panasonic, Toshiba is also entering the rapidly emerging big screen videoconferencing space.

  The launch of Toshiba’s first Blu-ray player was mentioned more or less in passing, and it will be upgradeable to 3D capability. However, we question Toshiba’s commitment to BD given the company’s belief that “the future of video is online, and discs are in decline”. It seems the bitter legacy of the HD-DVD saga has not been easily forgotten.

  Client Reading: HDTV: Standards Muddle Clouds Outlook For Wireless Displays

  

• 06Jan

  LG at CES: Connected TV Plans Put 3D In The Shade

  Connected TV, HD and 3DTV No Comments

  The challenges facing 3D TV were evident from its relative lack of focus at LG’s CES press conference this morning. While brief mention was made of the plans for new 3D-ready TVs to be launched in May this year, much more time was spent on a variety of broadband-enabled features which will be rolled out over the coming months.

  In particular, the headline-grabbing deal with Skype to bring video conferencing to the big screen caught the attention, and LG was confident enough in its technology to demonstrate a live Skype video call. Such demonstrations in front of the world’s technology press have a terrible habit of going wrong, but this worked, at least in terms of establishing a communications link. On the other hand, the quality of the video was extremely jerky and cut off completely once or twice. For a free service, that’s probably only to be expected, but vendors pushing specialist consumer TV video conferencing systems should take note that the price point for this basic capability is now effectively zero.

  LG has also redesigned its web TV services known as Netcast, and added various new ones including DivxTV. It claims that more than 110 “channels” are now available. It will offer Netcast on two thirds of its TV line-up in 2010, and virtually every set larger than 32”.

  Enhanced connectivity will also feature strongly, with most of LG’s new TVs being “wireless-ready”, which means they will require only a dongle for wireless HD connection to compatible devices. The company was cagey about which technology was being used, but Amimon, whose technology lies behind the WHDI 5GHz standard, issued a statement this morning claiming that “the new wireless-ready high-definition televisions and wireless HDTV accessories launched by LG Electronics are based on AMIMON’s wireless 1080p solution”.

  LG also demonstrated the inevitable “thinnest yet” TV, an LED LCD model only 6.9mm thick. I’m sure we’ll see more entries into this rather tiring pseudo-battle before next Sunday. Thin TVs are great, but there comes a point, and I think we have reached it, where another fraction of a millimeter is unlikely to make much difference to the sales line.

  And finally 3D, and LG was surprisingly circumspect in its announcements, focusing on its introducion of the first full HD single lens front projector. It said 3D capable TVs and a 3D BD player would be launched later in the year but was light on specifics. It seems a lot of work on the details still needs to be done.

  Client Reading: HDTV: Standards Muddle Clouds Outlook For Wireless Displays

  

• 06Jan

  CES 2010: Opening events and highlights

  Connected TV, HD and 3DTV, Technology business, Digital media No Comments

  The depth of the recession in the US consumer electronics market was highlighted today by CEA data which confirmed a decline in dollar revenues in 2009 of 12%. The outlook for 2010 improves but only in the sense that the rate of decline falls to 3%.

  In the meantime we’re hearing news of new 3D TV channels already, with both ESPN and Discovery throwing their hats into the ring. This is great, if expected, news for the many 3D-ready TVs we expect to see over the next few days.

  At this evening’s CES Unveiled event Sensio were showing their passive 3DTV, even though the company today announced its partnership with Visio to launch an active 3DTV later this year. Mitsubishi was also showing its laser 3DTV with the adaptor which will be necessary for compatibility with Blu-ray 3D players when they are lauinched.

  Logitech was showing its new Lapdesk N700, a laptop “cushion” with in-built speakers designed for enhanced laptop usage in the comfort of the armchair. The peripheral retails at $89.99 and also features an in-built cooling fan to prevent over-hearing, a familiar problem for those many TV viewers who now sit with a laptop on their knees. Logitech have thoughtfully added a grip to help keep the laptop steady, but unfortunately in my case it failed to prevent the Macpro falling to the floor. No damage done, luckily, but perhaps evidence of a need for further improvement in design.

  Logitech was also demonstrating the fruits of its recently closed acquisition of Lifesize Communications, a videoconferencing specialist. On display was its Passport set-top videoconferencing device. This retails at $2500 and allows anyone with a minimum 2-way 1Mbps broadband connection to communicate using HD video (720p). The service downscales to lower resolutions for slower bandwidth connections. Logitech claims that this device is a third of the price of any other similar product on the market. That may be true today but is unlikely to remain so for much longer. Videoconferencing and telepresence are shaping up to be one of the emerging trends of this CES and we will hear a lot more over the next few days, in addition to the Skype/Panasonic/LG announcement today.

  Yet another OTT video set-top box was being demonstrated by Syabas with its Popbox product. This grew out of the company’s Popcorn Hour device. The Popbox has been designed to be especially user-friendly, and the user interface does appear attractive and accessible. The service integrates currently 20 “content application channels”, which means things like Netflix, and is working with 200 application developers. It will launch in March 2010 and retail at $129, plus $20 for the optional WiFi module. The Popbox is 1080p-capable, although the only 1080p content was demonstration material. If Syabas manages to sign 1080p deals with content providers it will certainly be a step ahead of most competitors.

  ProVision CEO Steve Cliffe was confident enough in his company’s wireless HD technology to carry a laptop across the show floor while it streamed 1080i HD content, and there was no loss or deterioration in signal. This UK firm was founded by professors at Bristol University, and uses proprietary error correction and RF management techniques to improve HD video streaming over 802.11n. The company is talking to set-top box and TV manufacturers looking to support HD distribution to multiple home devices.

  Another UK firm, Imagination Technologies, was launching its Pure digital radio products for the US market. Pure is the leader in the UK but virtually unknown overseas. It will, rightly, tread carefully as it enters the notoriously challenging US market, and will obviously (since the standard is not used) drop DAB from its US product line-up, instead concentrating purely (sorry) on internet radio. Its Sensia product is the highlight of the range and features a full-colour touch screen LCD display as well as additional interactive capabilities like Twitter and Facebook. Pure confirmed to us that video-capable devices are a natural step forward and can be expected in the next year or so.

  Client Reading: HDTV: Standards Muddle Clouds Outlook For Wireless Displays

  

• 04Jan

  CES Preview: 3D and Connected TV To Take Centre Stage

  Connected TV, HD and 3DTV No Comments

  Strategy Analytics will as usual have a strong complement of analysts and representatives in Las Vegas this week for the annual Consumer Electronics Show. Our diaries are full with meetings and events, and possibly the odd party, so we hope to get around to seeing all the major players, and a fair number of smaller ones as well.

  In terms of hot themes, in the TV space 3D and connectivity will be the main items getting our attention. What will be interesting is to see how companies are planning, if indeed they are, to combine these two emerging capabilities into the same device. They are quite distinct applications, with their own sets of technology and content challenges. By the end of this year, if all goes according to plan, a high end TV will be both 3D- and internet-ready. That could involve a complex set of messages which will need careful explaning to end customers on the retail floor.

  As I mentioned previously, wireless HD technologies are also likely to feature strongly. We expect major announcements on support for the competing standards from all the major TV vendors.

  We’ll be aiming to bring regular updates from CES as the show progresses. In the meantime we welcome any questions and comments from clients on specific areas of interest regarding the event.

  Twitter: twitter.com/DavidMercer_SA

  Client Reading: HDTV: Standards Muddle Clouds Outlook For Wireless Displays

  

  Technorati code: XRKDPAZFT879

• 25Nov

  As CES Approaches Wireless HD War Hots Up Once Again

  Technology, HD and 3DTV 1 Comment

  How much is a cable-free TV worth? That’s the key question for TV manufacturers and technology vendors as they seek to stir interest once again in the concept of wire-free TVs and peripheral devices. While few consumers will have noticed, it’s been possible for a few years to connect high definition devices like set-top boxes and Blu-ray Disc players to HDTVs without using a cable. The technology has been built in to a few very high-end TVs from Sony and others, but at enormous cost. In fact, with 40” LCD TVs retailing at $600 or less, it can cost considerably more than that just to retrofit a wireless HD set-up.

  Clearly only those most passionate about clutter-free homes are likely to see the value in spending $1000 or more to remove one cable from their AV system. Until the costs come down dramatically it seems that wireless HD is likely to remain entrenched in its niche market.

  Those obstacles won’t stop two key wireless HD technology proponents from getting their messages across as CES 2010 approaches. We’ve published several times about this particular tech standards battle over the past few years. The conclusions in our 2007 review look pretty accurate with the benefit of two and a half years’ hindsight. At that time we didn’t expect much standards clarity or indeed volume in the market much before 2010, and that’s more or less how things have panned out.

  There are two major technology developers: Amimon, which supports the WHDI standard, and SiBeam, which backs WirelessHD. Behind each vendor is a selection of familiar names from the consumer electronics industry, with several appearing on both sides. For this reason alone it’s been difficult to predict the eventual outcome of this battle, if indeed one solution eventually comes to dominate the market. Sony in particular has flirted with both camps, and although it has recently indicated increased support for WirelessHD, executives have suggested they are still uncertain about the longer term potential for wireless HD technologies in general. According to Sony, the price increment is the main barrier to wider adoption.

  Amimon has also announced progress in the past few days, with the introduction of WHDI PC modules aimed at netbooks and notebooks. WHDI-HDMI adapters will also be launched so that HDMI devices can be enabled for wireless HD. Consumer products are expected to reach the market next year.

  Apart from the main technical differences between the two standards – one being that WHDI uses 5GHz, WirelessHD 60GHz – a key debating point is whether whole-home signal distribution has significant value. The WHDI camp pushes this as one its main advantages. Personally this strikes me as a strange argument: most peripheral devices will support one display at any one time, wherever they are placed in the home. There may be some demand for devices which support multiple displays (whole-home DVRs, for example), but these are likely to be an expensive alternative to buying multiple devices. The main user advantage of wireless HD technologies seems to me to be removing the wires within a single AV system, and both technologies do this job.

  The other arguments inevitably have focused on quality and performance, and these are always tough to judge from an independent perspective. I’m sure we’ll hear more from both camps over the coming weeks and during CES itself. But until they can guarantee more realistic consumer price points wireless HD solutions are likely to remain a distant prospect for mass market success.

  Twitter: twitter.com/DavidMercer_SA

  Client Reading: HDTV: Standards Muddle Clouds Outlook For Wireless Displays

  

  Technorati code: XRKDPAZFT879

• 12Nov

  A 3D World Cup? Don’t Bet Your House On It…

  Broadcasting, HD and 3DTV No Comments

  I was preparing a comment on plans for 3D at next year’s World Cup finals in South Africa. Then this article was published by respected broadcast journalist Adrian Pennington in TVB Europe.

  The article’s headline “World Cup 2010 to be broadcast in 3D” certainly gets the attention. The report indicates that up to half of the games could be broadcast in 3D. Given that today there are hardly any commercial 3D broadcast services anywhere in the world, barely six months before South Africa kick off in the first game, it would seem to require gargantuan efforts on the part of broadcasters, consumer device manufacturers, and broadcast equipment vendors if 3D broadcasts really were going to be available. Unfortunately for TVB Europe’s headline writers, the truth behind the story is perhaps not as exciting as it makes out.

  Sony is, correctly, cited as a key player in the 3D World Cup story, as a major sponsor and supplier of cameras and other equipment at the event. But my own discussions with senior Sony managers who are familiar with the FIFA discussions left me with the clear impression that, while negotiations are certainly taking place around 3D, there is nothing certain at this stage about production or distribution of games in that format.

  The obstacles are considerable and numerous. Apart from the fact that at the production and distribution levels 3D is still largely unexplored territory, even where sports events have been recorded in 3D this has largely been experimental. The creative community is very clear: they are at the beginning of the learning curve as far as 3D production in general, and sports in particular, is concerned. As Sky and other producers have demonstrated with their early productions, issues such as camera positioning and application are far from trivial if high quality 3D footage is to be achieved.

  But the biggest challenge of all regarding the FIFA World Cup is that 3D content rights have not yet been established. They were never included in the original broadcast deals because 3D broadcasting wasn’t even on the horizon at the time. So unless those agreements can be developed in the limited time available, and sold at a price that reflects the considerable additional costs of 3D production and transmission, it would be premature to assume that very much 3D broadcasting will emanate from South Africa’s football stadiums next summer.

  My own bet is that we will see a small number of the 64 games produced in 3D and a selection of those actually transmitted live. That is likely to include a few selected venues in the host country, where followers without tickets to the actual games will be gathering in their thousands, and possibly via broadcast networks to public venues in other countries such as cinemas.

  3D TV has great potential, and I have already highlighted the wow factor which comes from seeing great 3D sports productions. But I’ll be surprised if more than a tiny minority of football fans get to see next year’s World Cup in this format. The London Olympics in 2012 look like a better bet, but that’s another story.

  Client Reading: Digital Media Devices Global Market Report

  

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