• 27Jul

    A year ago almost to the day we called for Ofcom to put an end to ISPs’ ridiculous practice of describing broadband speeds with the meaningless phrase “up to”. Now Ofcom is again skirting around the issue in its latest survey of UK broadband speeds. Its own data shows that while “headline” speeds (ie the theoretical maximum – and even they are not true) have increased significantly over the past year, the actual speed achieved as a proportion of that “top” speed has actually fallen, from 58% to 46%. The craziness is illustrated further by the fact that the average speed attained by customers subscribing to “up to 20Mbps” packages is only 6.8Mbps, ie lower than the “headline” speed of inferior “up to 8Mbps” packages.

    The average download speed for all DSL connections has increased by only 10% over the past 12 months, from 3.7Mbps to 4.0Mbps, in spite of the fact that many more customers are being offered “up to” 20Mbps packages (ie DSL 2+). Note that the primary factor behind the higher increase in UK speeds overall is because of Virgin Media’s upgrading of its cable service: average cable broadband speeds have more than doubled, from 4.9Mbps to 9.9Mbps. That’s a testament to the growing strength of the UK’s cable operator, and an indictment of the recent supposed improvements in the DSL network.

    Ofcom’s excuse regarding regulating the “up to” nonsense is that this is not its job, but that of the advertising regulator. We regard this as a cop-out. Ofcom does have a Voluntary Code of Practice which “ensures that consumers are given the clearest possible information on access line speeds at point of sale”, and if that doesn’t relate to advertising, I don’t know what does.

    The Code of Practice talks a lot about maximum speeds, but not about minimums. This now has to change. Even with the well-known limitations of DSL technology, in the second decade of the 21st century customers have a right to know what minimum level of service they should expect to receive in return for their hard-earned pounds. BT will moan that it cannot yet deliver a minimum of 2Mbps to some parts of the country, so those remoter rural areas should be considered a special case, where “true” broadband (however that is defined) is technically (and temporarily) unavailable. This all goes back to early political demands that broadband be made “universally” available, and the politically inspired nonsense that 99% of UK homes can get DSL broadband services. Yes, but only if you count 250kbps as broadband.

    We need to step back so that we can move forward. The reality is that a small percentage – perhaps 5% - of UK homes are currently out of reach of 1-2Mbps+ broadband services, and remain “geographically challenging”. That needs to be accepted as a policy issue and targeted accordingly. The market as a whole should no longer be distorted because of this artificial and technical constraint. Once those homes are identified, the rest of the country should be given guarantees of minimum service, and tiered services will emerge which will give customers a great deal more clarity and confidence than they have had until now.

    Client Reading: Global Broadband Scorecard: 2010 Broadband Composite Index (BCI) Rankings

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    Posted by David Mercer @ 10:30 am

  • 20Jul

    Microsoft Xbox is at the moment very focused on reigniting stagnating sales of Xbox 360 consoles and elongating the 360’s lifespan. It is pursuing a two part strategy to accomplishing this; 1) launching an updated Xbox 360 “Slim” console, and 2) expanding the Xbox footprint by focusing on the “social gamer” segment with its controller free motion capture platform Kinect for Xbox 360. 

    Early sale trends from the US and
    UK markets suggest that the new Xbox 360 Slim has indeed accelerated console sales and now Xbox is turning its attention to the second part of the strategy – expanding its footprint into the social gamer segment. As we wrote in our recent
    report on Kinect, we believe that one of the key factors that will make or break Kinect will be if Xbox can get the pricing and bundle strategy correct for the price sensitive social gamer segment. We suggested at the time that Xbox need to have an entry level bundle (e.g. Xbox Arcade, Kinect, Dance Central game) starting at below $300 to succeed in breaking into this segment.

    Well it seems as Xbox may have listened to us as they today officially announced an estimated retail price (ERP) bundle of $299 (€299/£249) for an entry level Xbox console which will come with 4GB storage (compared to the current 256MB Arcade version), Kinect hardware and the “Kinect Adventures” game.

    The standalone Kinect hardware will get an ERP of $149 (€149/£129) as has been widely rumored for some time. While we think this latter price point is likely too high to entice most existing Xbox owners to upgrade to the Kinect platform, we believe it makes sense for Xbox to focus on the entry bundles for now, in order to accelerate console sales, and keep the standalone Kinect price high until a larger catalog of Kinect games has been launched.

    All in all, we think Xbox has skilfully negotiated the first major hurdle for Kinect – getting the price point for an attractive bundle correct. It now needs to focus on getting third party developers to embrace the Kinect platform and quickly build up an attractive catalogue of Kinect compatible games. 

    Martin Olausson

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    Posted by Martin Olausson @ 5:32 pm

  • 07Jul

    Returning to temperate climes after my first “summer” visit to Las Vegas, I am more amazed than ever at Nevada residents’ ability to withstand daily temperatures of 40 degrees plus and practically zero humidity. At least I now know what 108 Fahrenheit feels like. The contrast between this and a proper British summer (a few days of 25C followed by cool cloud and rain) could not be more stark.

    Las Vegas’ Mandalay Bay was the venue for Cisco’s annual customer gathering, which this year also brought together a hundred or so analysts for in-depth discussion of product and commercial strategy. The highlight product announcement was the Cius, as reported by my colleague, Susan Welsh de Grimaldo. While the company has not officially announced pricing, I expect it to be closer to $1000 than $500. Cisco is quite clear that the Cius is positioned as an enterprise solution, and these prices are likely to prevent much leakage towards “unofficial” consumer markets.

    What was most interesting, perhaps, is the genesis of the Cius within the Cisco organisation. It was obvious from many conversations that few people were aware of its development until very shortly before its unveiling. Even John Chambers himself claims to have been unaware of it until two months ago. If the product proves successful it will be further justification of Cisco’s innovation in organisation and management which allows dynamic cross-fertilisation of ideas across multiple teams.

    The other news centered on home energy management, where Cisco is launching a “Home Energy Controller” allied to Cisco Energy Management Services, which will be offered by utility companies to help consumers understand and control their energy consumption. The Controller uses Zigbee, WiFi and other home networking technologies to exchange data with and, potentially, control a variety of home devices.

    Much of our discussion with Cisco execs centered on the challenges and opportunities for service providers offered by OTT video, as well as the potential for telepresence in the home environment. Telepresence has a been a success for Cisco in the corporate market, and it is still on track to bring a consumer solution to the market by the end of 2010.

    It still strikes many people, both in the industry and consumers, as odd that Cisco should have a serious consumer strategy. While its brand presence is growing, not many would consider it as a competitor to the Sonys, Samsungs and Apples of the world. And there is no doubt that the company’s financial power is built on its core network switching and routing market dominance.

    Cisco does have key positions in home networking and set-top boxes, as well as the TV and broadband service provider space, but the jury is still out on whether Cisco itself will become an overall leader in consumer markets over the next decade. But consumer players cannot ignore Cisco as an influence on market direction. Its innovation processes, as demonstrated by Cius, will combine with its financial strength to create a wave of consumer innovations over the coming years. Many may fail, but it will only take a few to be successful for rivals to feel the heat.

    Client Reading: Chasing the Elusive IPTV Business Model: NDS, Cisco and Comcast to the Rescue?

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    Posted by David Mercer @ 10:55 am

  • 30Jun


    Two months ago, when the Hulu Plus rumor came out in the industry, we did a comparison between between Netflix and Hulu Plus here. Now that Hulu Plus is officially introduced, let’s take a further look at the new service.

    According to Hulu, Hulu Plus is not a replacement for Hulu.com. Hulu Plus is a new, revolutionary ad-supported subscription product that is incremental and complementary to the existing Hulu service. For almost all of the current broadcast shows on our service, Hulu Plus offers the full season. Every single episode of the current season will be available, not just a handful of trailing episodes. Moreover, Hulu Plus subscribers can now watch their favorites through more than just the browser on their Mac or PC. Hulu Plus subscribers will be able to watch all the Hulu shows on Internet connected TVs, iPhones, iPads and game consoles.

    In short, Hulu Plus offers a deep catalogue of TV shows and a wide range of content distribution channels. It is the TV Everywhere by broadcasters.

    So will consumers be willing to pay for the service? Without statistical evidence yet, a qualitative comparison among online premium video offerings could shed some light on the future of Hulu Plus. Netflix is a similar service which we’ve already compared with Hulu Plus in the previous post. As Hulu Plus has made it universally accessible, Netflix on iPhone is also coming soon. Both services are going the video everywhere approach. From the content distribution portfolio perspective, Hulu Plus is on par with Netflix streaming service. With $1 price advantage, Netflix could gain a slight edge over Hulu Plus, although a minor one. The key difference between the two services come down to content selection. While Netflix is a back-catalogue movie service, Hulu Plus is a back-catalogue TV show service, as all consumers can watch recent TV shows on regular Hulu service. So the competition could be somewhat simplified to TV shows VS movies. Netflix again has an edge over Hulu, with some of the TV shows such as Lost, 24 and Prison Break, also being included in its catalogue. Going forward, Hulu Plus could grow its catalogue significantly, but Netflix’s big user base makes it hard for broadcasters to ignore and not to sign deals with.

    Cable companies’ TV Everywhere is definitely a competing service to Hulu Plus. With similar content distribution portfolio in which users can access content on TVs, PCs and mobile phones, TV Everywhere could have better content selection than Hulu Plus. And for current cable subscribers, there is no incremental expense to enjoy TV Everywhere programs. But the speed of rolling out TV Everywhere service is questionable so far.

    Hulu Plus is clearly an experiment by the broadcasters in the hope of generating revenues by distributing content on their own. If Hulu Plus could prove its viability on profitability, there will be more content providers joining the game. And cable companies would inevitably lose their leverage in the negotiation. It is foreseeable that Hulu Plus could potentially become a formidable over-the-top TV service provider that rivals Comcast and Time Warner Cable, once all the major content providers join Hulu Plus. This could lead to the failure of cable companies’ TV Everywhere and eventually the distinction of cable companies. But right now it is still too early to tell.

    -Jia Wu

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    Posted by Jia Wu @ 10:13 pm

  • 17Jun

    Some say that OTT is the “most over-hyped and over-anticipated phenomenon in tech history,” others would have you believe the end is nigh for traditional pay television as we know it.

    The truth?  As usual, it’s somewhere in between.

    A report we’ve just published, “Over-The-Top vs. TV Everywhere: How Disruptive is OTT to the Pay TV Business?” concludes that while the reaction to OTT has been perhaps overhyped, online distribution does pose a potential threat to the traditional pay television model.

    The numbers to-date, however, don’t necessarily portend an imminent  collapse of pay television as we know it. . In fact, US pay TV service providers added nearly 2 million additional subscribers in the first quarter of 2010, despite an increasing threat services such as Netflix, Hulu, and YouTube.

    quarterlyadditions

    That’s not to OTT should be ignored, however.  Survey research we published in early 2010 showed that US consumers perceive a relatively low “value for money” for pay television services.  

    OTT services can potentially capitalize on pay TV’s biggest shortcomings, namely a lack of flexibility in selecting channel packages, and a low perceived value for money.

    -Ben Piper

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    Posted by bpiper @ 5:28 pm

  • 26May

    Is it a sign of Trouble at’ Mill? Or just another corporate shake-up while business goes on as usual? Microsoft yesterday announced the departure of leading Entertainment and Devices executives Robbie Bach and J. Allard. Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer will take charge of the division, with Don Mattrick running the Xbox side and Andy Lees the mobile business.

    There are clearly problems for Microsoft in its mobile business. All the various iterations of its mobile phone software over the years have failed to make significant market impact as Apple and, now, Google, make the running.

    Microsoft’s biggest problem is that consumer is still a relatively small and fragmented part of its overall business. It’s losing out to Apple, and others, in the consumer market because its primary corporate focus continues to be business users of Windows. Apple, which, not through lack of effort, never achieved prominence in business markets, has been able to focus its strategy on the consumer space without the hindrance of adhering to a corporate software strategy.

    From Microsoft’s perspective it might seem logical to group Xbox, music players and mobile phones under one roof, but this makes less obvious sense to the outside world. Xbox has been successful largely because it has been left alone to formulate its own strategy focused on games, entertainment and the digital home. Dan Mattrick, whom I met last summer to discuss Xbox strategy, should now try to persuade Ballmer that the Xbox team needs to remain a discrete unit with liberty to forge its own direction, and if necessary outside of the demands of the corporate Windows strategy if necessary.

    With the launch of Natal imminent, the continued ramping up of online services based around the Xbox 360, and the plateauing of Xbox 360 sales, Microsoft can ill afford a dilution in focus because of this disruption to the senior management team.

    David Mercer

    Other Blog Posts Of Interest:
    PS3 Global Market Share Reached 31% in Q1 2010
    Sony’s PS3 to Win Current Games Console Battle; SA Forecasts 47.5 Million Global Console Market in 2010
    Sky Player Finally Arrives Where It Belongs, But Work Still to be Done
    TV or Videogame? 1 vs 100 on Xbox Live Offers Lifeline To Appointment Viewing

    Client Reading: Taming the Waves: Games Console Life Cycles and Platform Competition

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    Posted by David Mercer @ 11:43 am

  • 24May

    Google last week unveiled GoogleTV, heralded by Intel CEO Paul Otellini as “the biggest improvement to television since color.”  And hey, what fun is a huge announcement without unrestrained hype, hyperbole, and flashy demos?  Right?

    Whooops!

    Never Work with Children, Animals, or Bluetooth

    Demos often seem predestined to fail.  Anyone who has been on the receiving end of a trade show demo can attest to that.  Well, this isn’t working as planned, but you get the idea moments are hardly rare.

    So it was not a big surprise to see the Google TV demo hampered and delayed by technical glitches.  For a  technology meant to harness the power of Internet, and bring the experience to the television seamlessly, this was not particularly confidence-inspiring. 

    But we still get the idea…

    Introducing WebTV 2.0?

    Some of us are old enough to remember painful previous attempts at bringing the experience of the Web to the television screen.  Was WebTV simply misunderstood?  Or was it ahead of its time?

    Perhaps both.  

    What WebTV fundamentally missed was the singular and individual nature of Internet experience  One could argue that it did little more than render the tv screen a monitor viewable by the whole family.  The result was an experience similar to having someone read over your shoulder.  Creepy and annoying.

    To be sure, the technology has been there for years—it’s the business case that has been lacking.

    Why it just might work this time

    GoogleTV has a fighting chance this time, for several reasons…

    Cord cutting is fast becoming a reality

    Today things are markedly different.  With a growing abundance of online video, “Cord cutting,” the notion of Cable and Satellite customers moving to unmanaged free or almost free Internet-based platforms, is fast becoming a reality. Strategy Analytics sees the number of so-called “cord cutters” exceeding 10% of US television households by the end of the year. Video will continue to dominate, accounting for over half of all of all consumer Internet traffic in the next five years.

    USINTERNETTRAFFIC

    Source: Strategy Analytics

    Although the GoogleTV talking points bill the platform as “complementary” to cable, satellite and Telco TV, make no mistake—GoogleTV is a competitor to traditional “managed” pay tv.

    It satisfies a demonstrated need

    While it has been possible to emulate a pay tv environment with a game console, a tv and a PC, the level of sophistication required to knit these together into a seamless and enjoyable viewing experience went far beyond the aptitude or interest of the average consumer. GoogleTV may just bridge that gap.

    Observational research of Connected Media Users in the US and Europe, performed under the auspices of Strategy Analytics’ Digital Home Observatory, uncovered some common missing elements consumers identified in today’s Over the Top (OTT) ecosystem

    In addition to the desire for an integrated experience across devices, respondents brought up the wish for a more personalized viewing experience, and the ability to discover new relevant content based upon their existing likes and interests, and more relevant advertising and payment options.

    These are all places where GoogleTV can deliver.

    The Power of the Value Chain

    As strange as it may seem to see Sony chief Howard Stringer sharing the stage with Google and talking about “openness,” a critical success factor for GoogleTV is the power of its value chain, and the A-list partners it has teamed up with. Along with Sony, the presence of Intel and Logitech, as well as BestBuy and Dish bring some credibility to the table.

    TBD?

    Pricing

    Rumors are floating around about likely price points, but nothing firm as of yet. This could be critical, as a $399 Logitech “companion box” sounds like it may collect dust on the BestBuy shelves.

    Content

    Somewhat surprisingly absent from last week’s announcement was any real mention of the content side. Sure, there was lip service paid to “You Tube Lean Back,” but nothing of any great consequence. YouTube, which turns five this year, is starting to offer full-length movies, though it still lacks enough professional content to make it a viable alternative, and UGC (User Generated Content) is, by nature, ephemeral. How many times can you watch “David After Dentist?”

    And what about Sony’s extensive library of television series and movies?

    Net Neutrality

    As I mentioned in an earlier blog, the goings on with the FCC are doing very little to inject any sort of confidence or certainty into the minds of investors. And even though Chairman Genachowski’s “Third Way” strategy appears to be the current path, the fight has not even started with the MSOs and Telcos.

    Expect this to be tied up in court for the next few years.

    And that, we get.

    -Ben Piper

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    Posted by bpiper @ 4:08 am

  • 20May

    google-tv-logo.png
    I remember a couple of years ago, I read a great book called The Search: How Google and Its Rivals Rewrote the Rules of Business and Transformed Our Culture by John Battelle. In the book, the author depicted a scene that a mom ordered a baby diaper product for her kid due to a TV commercial shown on her TV. And this specific diaper commercial was displayed to her at this time because the advertising system knows her information and web search queries. This scene sounded for me at that time like a futuristic novel, which is beautiful but not realistic.

    Today Google announced Google TV, a product that could be a big stride toward realizing the scene. Basically, Google TV is a set-top-box that enables users to consume web content on the TV screens. Although it is not new and companies like Boxee are already doing this, it is still great to see that Google offers a nice integral interface between TV and web content so that you don’t have to press input button in order to switch to computer desktop. More importantly, you have the universal web search on your TV screen, which could potentially tap a huge advertising market for Google. TV advertising is a $165 billion market. And if the vividness of TV commercial could be combined with interactivity of online ads and the information of users search intention, it would create the new generation of TV advertising and help Google build its next multi-billion dollar business. I believe it is a great vision that Google has.

    But barriers remain. The vision will only be achieved if Google TV can hit critical mass. The key strategy for Google TV is to extend its search to more audiences rather than selling the boxes. To realize this strategy, Google TV needs to be adopted by mainstream population. But do normal users nowadays have clear understanding of Google TV and its benefits? Probably not. Even if they do, are they willing to spend money on the benefits and how much? We don’t know the price point for Google TV yet, but this is a question to be answered. If the value proposition is not strong enough, it is hard for Google TV to achieve mass adoption.

    Moreover, Google TV could potentially hurt cable business given the abundance of web content. If we can get the same show online for free, there is a fair change that we might want to cut our cable subscription. In this case, content producers’ largest revenue contributor, cable companies, will put more pressure on content owners, letting them put less shows online for free. Then we will either see less free premium content online or more paywalls for online premium videos. This may eventually make free web video content less compelling.

    In short, to achieve Google TV’s great strategy and vision, many consumer and operation related issues are waiting to be resolved. And implementing it is not an easy job.

    Jia Wu

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    Posted by Jia Wu @ 10:33 pm

  • 19May

    As our recent report pointed out, the potential of internet and IPTV has failed to materialise. One area of untapped potential is interactive or targeted advertising. In spite of more than a decade of red button adverts in the UK these services have never proved commercially viable and in fact were recently withdrawn completely by Sky.

    Trials of new technologies continue, however, and Sky has just completed a trial called Adsmart. Its partner was Mediacom, using technology from Packetvision and ads from Nat West, the UK bank. Mediacom’s Managing Partner of Implementation & Futures Rhys McLachlan, presenting at this morning’s Broadcast and Beyond conference, called the trial a technical success, but went on to describe the key findings, most of which seemed to present targeted TV ads not so much as an uphill battle as an attempt at Mount Everest.

    The first conclusion is that current television audience segmentations are ‘rudimentary’ at best. In spite of using Sky’s own extensive customer database, McClachlan concluded that the segmentations currently used ‘cannot be validated’. As far as advertisers are concerned there is simply no consensus on how such audience data should be employed.

    Mediacom also found that it was very difficult to find the right metric for audience measurement, and that, critically, it was very difficult to prove the ROI from targeted ads.

    Finally, in spite of the advanced technology used, there was simply no proof that advertisements had been delivered and viewed. Effectiveness measurement depended simply on ‘good faith and intuition’.

    In spite of these challenges investment in advanced advertising trials continues, and broadband is the key to the future success, according to McClachy. The biggest challenge of all is developing technology which can help advertisers differentiate between single and multi viewer consumption. As we have also noted previously, asking TV viewers to log in, as some emerging services do, does not solve this problem. Even with the latest advanced technologies in the IPTV world, it seems there is still a long way to go before advertisers will be convinced to spend money on using them.

    David Mercer

    Client Reading: Chasing the Elusive IPTV Business Model: NDS, Cisco and Comcast to the Rescue?

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    Posted by David Mercer @ 4:26 pm

  • 18May

    Downtown LA’s Nokia Theater, venue of the Season 7 and 8 finals of American Idol, played host for a highly anticipated - though somewhat poorly attended - keynote from FCC Chairman Julius Genachowsi.  The interview format, moderated by NCTA president Kyle McSlarrow, was heavy on platitudes, and light on real news.

    “Let’s roll up our sleeves, and get down to business!” seemed to be overarching theme.

    In a very brief press conference later in the day, the Chairman did respond to some slightly tougher questions - and gave a pretty non-responsive answer to one posed by yours truly

    A “Healthy and Fair” Third Way?

    April’s court decision “has created a problem, and has damaged the legal foundation,”  according to Chairman Genachowski.  The FCC’s was faced with several options, according to a statement issued by the FCC:

    • Do Nothing

    The Commission could continue relying on Title I “ancillary” authority, and try to anchor actions like
    reforming universal service and preserving an open Internet by indirectly drawing on provisions in Title II
    of the Communications Act (e.g., sections 201, 202, and 254) that give the Commission direct authority
    over entities providing “telecommunications services.”

    • Deploy the “Nuclear Option”

    The Commission could fully “reclassify” Internet communications as a “telecommunications
    service,” restoring the FCC’s direct authority over broadband communications networks but also
    imposing on providers of broadband access services dozens of new regulatory requirements.

    • Third Way

    With each of these deemed “too extreme,” the Commission instead has decided on a so-called “Third Way,”  a “Healthy and fair option” which would:

      • Recognize the transmission component of broadband access service—and only this component—
        as a telecommunications service;
      • Apply only a handful of provisions of Title II (Sections 201, 202, 208, 222, 254, and 255) that,
        prior to the Comcast decision, were widely believed to be within the Commission’s purview for
        broadband;
      • Simultaneously renounce—that is, forbear from—application of the many sections of the
        Communications Act that are unnecessary and inappropriate for broadband access service; and
      • Put in place up-front forbearance and meaningful boundaries to guard against regulatory
        overreach.

    Unfortunately, the FCC’s chosen path, reclassifying ISPs as common carriers and “forbearing” the majority of Title II regulations, hasn’t done much to instill confidence.  Critics say it opens the door to potential pricing regulation going forward, though the Chairman insists that is “off the table.”

    The key enforced provision, Section 202, prohibits carriers from making any “unjust or unreasonable discrimination” in the way it charges.  Section 208, another provision on the table for enforcement, allows carriers, enterprises, and individuals to file complaints directly with the FCC for violations.

    Buckle Up and Hang On

    Along with many others, I have long operated under the assumption that, in principle, net neutrality was decided with the election of Barack Obama in November 2008. The latest court rulings have insinuated more fear, uncertainty and doubt into the mix.  And markets don’t adapt well to fear, uncertainty and doubt.  I would suggest everyone buckle in tight, because this ride isn’t over.  

    See You in Court!

    The process will be slow, there will be numerous legislative challenges and speed bumps–Representative Cliff Stearns from Florida recently introduced a bill that would require the FCC to deliver a detailed cost-benefit analysis to Congress before moving forward.  When I asked the Chairman yesterday about this, he only said that FCC “will work with Congress as a resource.”

    Not to mention the court cases…we should anticipate numerous legal challenges in the forthcoming months, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this ultimately end up in the Supreme Court. The real brunt of this will be felt by OTT ecosystem players.  Over the Top, by its very nature, is predicated on an open Internet.

    Twelve, eighteen, or twenty-four additional months of limbo is the last thing these guys need. 

     -Ben Piper

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    Posted by bpiper @ 3:35 am

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