Chinese telco giant Huawei made its latest, and greatest, move in its quest for premium smartphone credibility today with the launch of the Ascend P6, which was attended by our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service.

Early hands-on time with the device reveals a very thin and light 4.7-inch premium smartphone that is a distinct step up in terms of industrial design from the P1 and P2. The reason for the numerical jump in the name is to draw attention to the fact that it is a mere 6.18mm thick. There is a metal strip around the edge that is very reminiscent of the current generation iPhone design, which is no bad thing.

While Huawei had to launch a device that was at least on a par with its competitors to generate buzz in the intensely competitive flagship handset space, the best way to grow the brand is for end-users to have the device in their hands. The Huawei handset brand is still in its infancy, so the smart move is to also be aggressive on price, which is exactly what Huawei has done by pricing the Ascend P6 at €449, which should equate to contract prices as low as £21 per month - considerably lower than most of its competitors.

The Huawei Ascend P6 will be available in China tomorrow, and apparently has unprecedented preorder levels, while Europe will first get its hands on it in early July. Most major operators and retailers are said to be not just stocking it, but putting some marketing weight behind it, so this has all the signs of being Huawei’s biggest handset launch to date, and could be of significant assistance in Huawei’s quest for premium smartphone credibility.

Huawei's position in the global and regional smartphone rankings is detailed in the following WSS report: Global Smartphone Vendor Market Share by Region: Q1 2013. 

The Apple WWDC kicked off today and the opening keynote was as expected slightly underwhelming but still depicted Apple’s broader and deeper ecosystem.

With respect to the announcements, following are some of our thoughts:

·    Typography, translucencies & lots of colors adds a fresher look and feel to the aging iOS6 UI but I believe it’s not enough to hold the iPhone users from switching to competing platforms as overall interaction, features remains weak.

·    iTunes Radio, multitasking, browser animations, Airplay and Airdrop are good and required catch-up additions but I believe many users are in many ways increasingly committed to cross-platform apps such as Pandora, Spotify, Dropbox, Gmail, Chrome which gives them a foot outside the door of iOS Ecosystem. While the current iOS users will welcome these additions, these features are not enough for competing platform users to switch to iOS.

·    In terms of maps, Apple is starting to get deeper location/mapping integration across devices and native iOS apps such as calendar, browser, enabling a tighter coupling and syncing across devices leveraging iCloud.

·    Apart from Airdrop, per app VPN, iCloud Keychain in OSX, we didn't seen many features or services announced which would boost the iCloud in enterprise.

·    Updates to OSX and notebooks were good in addition to the sneak peak of Mac Pro was truly impressive and depicts Apple still has enough design arsenal up their sleeves which they are not using it at this moment. Apple continues to bank on its strategy to leverage its strong brand equity, ecosystem advantage to think that these incremental updates will satisfy the current and prospective iOS users without giving away the farm and still will be able to maintain healthy bottom line.

Overall, Apple iOS7 has nothing revolutionary to help it beat Android or regain the "cool quotient".  However, the iOS ecosystem is still very strong and tightly controlled as it now boasts 575 million registered iTunes accounts, 300 million iCloud accounts, 240 million Game Center users, more than 90% of devices on iOS 6 (no fragmentation like Android) and 407 retail stores across 14 countries with approximately 350 million in annual footfall. Huge but still not an Android killer in long term!

Our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) services freshly published Global Smartphone Distribution Forecast : Offline vs. Online report. WSS clients please click this link to access the full report.

The distribution of smartphones through online retail channels will grow an above-average +24% worldwide in 2014. North America, Western Europe and China are especially active and those regions are experiencing a Golden Age for online smartphone distribution. Of Which Western Europe to represent the highest smartphone online % in 2014.

Independent retailers in many parts of Europe, like Carphone Warehouse UK, are important online as well as offline channels, but operators are also key online distribution channels in these markets. Important online countries in the region include UK, Germany and France. We think European smartphone buyers online are broadly found in two segments today -- they are either purchasing low-end SIM-free or prepaid models to save money or give as gifts; or they are buying high-end models in mid-contract or post-contract to replace aging, broken or lost devices.

This report forecasts global smartphone offline and online distribution flows for 6 major regions and 3 key countries from 2007 to 2017, including North America, Western Europe, Latin America, China, Japan and India. The forecasts can be used by smartphone vendors, vehicle makers, apps developers and others to identify the main regional channels where smartphones are being sold, and how rapidly online channels are emerging alongside, and in some cases displacing, offline distribution.

It could sound surprising but the new BlackBerry Q10 is my first physical QWERTY smartphone, coming from four years of full-touch smartphone usage, to type using those soft physical keys on Q10 has been a unique experience. I have been using both the BlackBerry Z10 (last 4 months) and Q10 (last 6 weeks), both almost contrasting in formfactors as well as interaction experience.

Software: 

The touch-friendly BB10 User Interface and Interaction is simply fresh and extraordinary but some feature phone upgraders and even traditional BlackBerry users might find it a bit overwhelming at start. The smartphone comes loaded with host of useful and differentiated applications and services such as BlackBerry Hub (Very Useful Notification center), BlackBerry Remember (All Note Taking in one place), BlackBerry Messenger (BBM) Video with Screen Sharing and BlackBerry Balance (Two profiles: work and personal a key solution to attract enterprise users and attack BYOD trend). However, the BlackBerry Balance still requires the user to have BlackBerry Enterprise Server (BES) support to enable “work” profile and won’t work for users with enterprises which have not deployed BES. This is something BlackBerry needs to work on to attract more BYOD users.

Keyboard: 

While the new BlackBerry 10 physical QWERTY keyboard has left out the famous BlackBerry navigation "trackpad" but it is nicely replaced by the number of touchscreen gestures and smart typing features on the device. The universal type-to-search or action (e.g. open app, contact, etc.) using physical keyboard is a unique differentiator for BlackBerry Q10. However, I did miss the intuitive "word prediction & flick typing" feature implemented in Z10 virtual keyboard. Nevertheless, Z10's word prediction engine is still integrated in Q10 as well, very useful and saves tons of keystrokes which makes typing a breeze and simply outstanding.

Hardware: 

Q10 definitely comes in a "cute" form-factor with a high pixel density (330 ppi) but a tiny 3.1 inch 720p touch screen Super AMOLED display coupled with the world's best smartphone physical QWERTY keyboard. From our analysis, QWERTY SKUs have been dropping left and right in BlackBerry competitors’ smartphone portfolio and Q10 should help BlackBerry differentiate with the “best QWERTY smartphone experience” in smartphone space and in a form-factor which is super light, thin and also with a full-snappy touchscreen BB10 experience integrated. The BlackBerry loyalists and keyboard lovers will look forward to this device to provide an unparalleled "touch & type" experience. The device is powered by Qualcomm’s 1.5GHz dual-core Snapdragon S4 Plus processor with 2GB of RAM and Adreno 225 GPU, NFC, 8MP rear and 2MP front cameras, Bluetooth v 4.0, microSD and is 4G LTE ready like Z10.

Multiple Form-factors introduces App Store Fragmentation in BB10 Platform:

The Q10 QWERTY form-factor helps Blackberry differentiate and maintain the QWERTY keyboard leadership but at the same time introduces fragmentation in BlackBerry 10 platform in terms of applications development and availability of apps across different form-factors. For example, developers have to specially tweak the BB10 apps designed for Z10 to fit the 720x720 3.1 inch formfactor of Q10. A simple app store search revealed the gap in terms of apps which are available for Z10 but not yet for Q10. Also, Skype app was first announced for Q10 and then for Z10 separately which is not encouraging signs for the BlackBerry developers. BlackBerry will have to find ways to resolve this issue and make sure that the development process is painless, uniform and QWERTY BB10 devices are not deprived of apps which are available on full-touchscreen BB10 devices or vice-versa.

App Fragmentation Example: Q10 vs. Z10

Pricing: Very Expensive

 Secondly, on the pricing side the unlocked retail price (~US$600+) is on the higher side than expected and BlackBerry needs to launch multiple sub US$300 retail price-point models to target the emerging markets and younger segments and lock them in BB10 experience in coming quarters. This will drive broader adoption of BB10 this year as developed market consumers are still higher on the scale to choose iOS and Android platforms ahead of other platforms in near- to mid-term.

Conclusion

To summarize, Q10 is a solid differentiated “touch & type” offering by BlackBerry which will help BlackBerry maintain it legacy, style and attract millions of BlackBerry purists and loyalists as well as consumers with iOS or Android fatigue which in past have been BlackBerry users. However, the different form-factor also brings in an unwarranted app store fragmentation and the very higher retail pricing (unsubsidized and subsidized) will certainly raise some eyebrows and barriers to achieve tens of millions in volumes per quarter run-rate as Q10 is essentially competing in a very premium-tier against the behemoths such as Samsung Galaxy S4 or Apple iPhone 5 the world’s best-selling smartphone models.

According to our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service, global smartphone revenues will grow +37% over the next 5 years. Increasing smartphone volumes will be partly offset by decreasing price points, as vendors and operators penetrate deeper into the price-sensitive prepaid market. Falling component prices will enable sales expansion in lower price-tiers, particularly for emerging markets like Asia and Latin America. Meanwhile, Apple and others will continue to target the subsidy-led premium category. Our detailed report forecasts global smartphone sales volume, revenues and wholesale ASPs by six major regions and five price-tiers from 2003 to 2017. Extensive analysis of the premium, high, mid, entry and ultra-low price-bands is included. The published report can be downloaded by clients here.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, global mobile phone industry revenues grew +11% annually in Q1 2013. Profits increased annually due to a greater proportion of 3G and 4G models in the mix. Samsung and Apple dominate the industry and they are tightening their grip on value share, squeezing out almost all other rivals. Our new report provides quarterly global mobile phone ASPs, revenues and profit metrics for multiple major mobile phone OEMs from 2007 through 1Q 2013. Revenue share and profit share are also supplied. The published report can be downloaded by clients here.

Tizen OS is being heavily supported by Samsung and others as an alternative smartphone platform to Android. Is Tizen a credible Android challenger? Or will it be a "Bada 2.0" flop? Extensive analysis and Tizen smartphone forecasts for 88 countries can be downloaded by clients in this published report, from our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service.

Ubuntu OS is being hyped as an emerging smartphone platform that could be a long-term alternative to Android. What opportunities and threats does the Ubuntu OS face? Will it be low-cost enough and have a decent services ecosystem? Extensive analysis and forecasts for 88 countries can be downloaded by clients in this published report, from our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service.

Apple iOS has reached a fork in the strategic road. Should Apple continue along its current path and do nothing? Or should Apple downscale and upscale into smaller and bigger screens? Extensive analysis and forecasts of Apple iOS sales for 88 countries can be downloaded by clients in this published report, from our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service.

Our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) services freshly published Global Smartphone Wholesale Revenue, ASP and Price-Tier Forecast Report today. Please click here to access the full report.

Global smartphone wholesale (trade) revenues are forecasted to grow 22% in 2013 as high-end superphones, phablets and operator subsidies continue to drive the market to new heights. The rate of growth, however, will slow to lower single digits beginning in 2015 as swiftly falling prices offset the continued volume growth.

Smartphone wholesale (trade) ASPs  dropped to 5% in 2012, mainly because of the greater portion and volume of entry and mid-tier models, which combined contributed to 37% of total smartphone volume in 2012, up from 20% one year ago. Emerging markets, such as China, saw a robust smartphone booming thanks to the increased availability from local brands, lower price and Chinese operators’ solid subsidies. The surging volumes in emerging markets significantly boosted up global smartphone volumes, while also drew down ASPs. We expect ASPs will  continue their decline during the forecast period.

North America will continue to have the highest smartphone ASP in the world through 2017, while the soaring volumes have been making Asia Pacific as the most valuable market through from 2011 onwards.

This detailed report forecasts global smartphone sales volume, revenues and wholesale ASPs by six major regions and five price-tiers from 2003 to 2017. Extensive analysis of the premium, high, mid, entry and ultra-low price-bands is included. The report is a valuable tool for device vendors, operators, component manufacturers, software developers, financial analysts, car makers, and other stakeholders who want to measure the smartphone market by value or price-brand and benchmark their pricing strategies.