Strategy Analytics predicts global cellular subscriptions to exceed 7 billion by the end of 2013. Asia Pacific continues to be the largest single region, representing half of the world's cellular subscriptions. LTE will be the most important growth category and global 4G subscriptions will soar over the next five years.

GSM/WCDMA/TD-SCDMA will dominate the wireless ecosystem, with LTE in particular gaining good traction over the next five years.

Cellular subscriptions are outpacing unique users. How many unique users does 2012's 6.6 billion subscriptions represent?

A combination of inactive accounts, individuals using multiple SIM cards in one handset, and the emergence of more multi-device users will drive the subscription/user gap even higher.

More than one quarter of all subscriptions will be on 3G or 4G networks by the end of 2012, with 2G systems witnessing their last year of subscription growth before declines commence in 2013

2012 will see the emergence of LTE as a global 4G technology with total connections growing from 9 fold year on year. The US, Japan and South Korea are the current growth engines for LTE, but which regions and countries will drive the next wave?

Greater scale in the global handset market will help to put LTE on a more rapid adoption curve than seen by WCDMA.

This report forecasts cellular subscriptions by protocol in 6 global regions and 13 major automotive countries from 2007 to 2017. Major protocol forecasts for each major automotive market include

? CDMA (CDMAOne / 1x / EV-DO),

? 2G GSM (GSM / GPRS / EDGE

? 3G GSM (WCDMA / HSDPA / HSUPA / HSPA+ / TD-SCDMA)

? 4G LTE (LTE)

Client reading

Churn rates have risen consistently in the mobile industry with average customer lifetimes little more than two years now, half their level a decade ago.

Prepaid churn is the main culprit here, driven by promotional SIM activity in developing markets (prepaid churn in Asia-Pacific is almost 100% per annum): operators should focus on pushing out targeted promotions to existing users to build longer-term, more valuable customer relationships.

By contrast, the postpaid market, which accounts for the majority of operator revenues, has seen churn improve, though this has become costly to manage as smartphone subsidies stretch operator resources.

Strategy Analytics Wireless Operator Strategies service examines key questions such as:

What is the average lifetime value of customers by prepaid, postpaid and blended?

How strongly has postpaid churn recovered from its worst at the peak of the recession?

What are the trends in prepaid churn rates in Europe? Asia?

Which operators have been most innovative in addressing churn and the handset subsidy issue?

Client Reading:

https://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportformatsviewer&a0=7252

https://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=7250

May you live in interesting times as the old Chinese proverb goes. Well in the information, communication and entertainment industry we certainly do. Some very interesting questions face our industry whether we look at:

• the outcome of much delayed Indian 3G auction or
• the battlegrounds around HSPA+ and LTE or
• the surging Android ecosystem vs. weakening Symbian or
• the upside potential for WebOS under it new owners
• the potential disruption caused by mobile cloud phones and device

Every major technology advancement has lead to a massive disruption in the handset and infrastructure vendor community.

• In 3G, Motorola’s slim myopia led to its near ruin and has provided huge growth for Samsung and a foothold in international markets for LG and SEMC.
• On the infrastructure side 3G was expertly grasped by Huawei and ZTE leading to a new wave of M & A and a new world order which counts Nortel as a victim and seriously challenges ALU.

So how will the migration to 4G change the playing field?

• Who will benefit most on the operator/service provider side?
• Will Cloud Phones be disruptive in LTE?
• Will operators find a path to realign the traffic/revenue mix with mobile broadband devices?

I would welcome your thoughts on these key questions. Also don’t forget to join our client webinar on Thursday May 27.

David

As we rapidly close the cover on one of the toughest years the telecommunications, content and internet industries have ever seen, SA takes a look ahead beyond the recession to detail the key megatrends for the mobile industry in 2010.

We see a tough but positive mobile ecosystem outlook with devices recovering stronger than services. More consolidation is likely among network operators, while profits for device vendors will continue to flow away from handset only vendors in favor of device/services integration specialists. Emerging markets will continue to dominate volume with strong 3G rollout competition expected. The global market for services, applications, devices and infrastructure will post modest growth of approximately 3% in 2010.

The total mobile industry revenue including services, infrastructure and devices was flat in 2009. We expect a modest growth of 2.8% in 2010 to $1140B.

· In 2009, only strong growth in data spends by users ensured that total industry revenues did not decline. Data revenues grew 9.5% in 2009 and are expected to grow at a 13% rate in 2010 reaching over $200B.

· Handset market sell through revenue will rebound well in 2010, posting growth of 4% while the infrastructure market will continue to struggle and will decline slightly.

Key issues shaping the 2010 landscape include:

• Operators needing to balance the the strong rise in Capex requirements driven by the data traffic explosion against slow revenue growth. The likely outcome being significant M&A, network sharing and even applications development.
• Handset OEMs will be forced will put the early stake in the ground for new device categories. Traditional OEMS will continue to struggle to match the Apple & Google vertical integration strategy which has proven so successful.
• As the big five vendors focus on smart phones and content/services in the open markets, a race develops to get services/apps onto feature phone products or other operator customized devices
• On-portal traffic continues to grow but is outpaced by off portal session growth. Contextualization and personalization of the user experience will determine winners and losers.
• The rapid diffusion of Flash and HTML 5 on handsets could negate much of the need for mediacos to use open platforms/app stores in mature markets.
• In the business sector we see SMEs and Manage Mobility as key battlegrounds. We see growth in hosted services for SMEs (e.g. Unified Communications infrastructure-one phone mobile and fixed, one voicemail etc.  Personal v corporate liable devices (iPhone v BlackBerry) becomes a major issue.
• In the Emerging Markets area we see consolidation & 3G expansion in urban areas as key battlegrounds. With improved financing prospects, there will be significant consolidation among regional operators and rationalization of holdings.