CES 2011 is nearly upon us and the conference will unveil to the public innovations that will shape the year. So, as press day hits its stride it's evident that there are a few key themes in mobile media we can expect throughout the conference and 2011. One key phrase to sum up the events thus far; thinner, faster (both device and network), and bigger (Which is not a contradiction with the first adjective). 1. 4G. One of the buzzwords that will be discussed throughout the show and has been said more times today than zealots at a Steve Jobs keynote say ooh and aah. 4G is clearly the future and for a multimedia loving public the ability to stream and download content more quickly will impact their device usage. 2. Thin. Depending on when a handset manufacturer announced their newest flagship handset today they were briefly the "thinnest smartphone on the planet." Peruse a few press releases and this key phrase will unabashedly appear at the top. 3. Fast. The 1.2GHz Qualcomm SnapDragon processor (and its competitors) and dual core variants will begin making their way into handsets this year. For content consumption this will inevitably mean richer applications, more immersive games, and of course HD video consumption/recording/editing. 4. Cross Platform. Whether it be a TV, a tablet, or a car cross platform services are quickly becoming the rage. As OpenFeint discussed at the AT&T developer conference this morning the ability to compete with friends across platform is the future. Also at the AT&T event discussions were had about developing apps for U-Verse that work on various tablets and phones. For users hoping to better immerse themselves in their content, apps, and games this cross platform functionality will change how they view the ecosystem of products they buy and allow for the creation of very compelling apps unlike anything we've seen so far. 5. Bigger. Screen sizes are growing ever larger (Samsung has a 4.5" device coming) and compatibility with third party accessories such as PC docks and HDTVs will turn phones into a hub for media consumption unlike ever before. For users uninterested in consuming content on a 3.5" screen the new options will make media consumption much more compelling and should impact the growth of digital content distribution as well. This is just the beginning of course and if you're interested in hearing more you can follow Strategy Analytics analysts by tracking the hastag #SACES on Twitter or view our intermittent live stream from CES at .

At CTIA in San Francisco last week, away from the fanfare around LTE rollouts and the next dozen tablet devices (ok, I exaggerate a little), Sprint had an announcement which will have significantly higher impact on mobile broadband adoption and revenues: Sprint ID. 

Sprint ID promises to up the ante on personalization and ease current feature phone users into the smart phone ranks.

Sprint ID offers instant personalization along key themes/packs where the operator has done the heavy lifting of identifying and group related applications of interest to different persona from wallpaper to ringtones to apps. While the one click marketing line is not quite matched by reality given pesky little things like accepting terms and conditions etc, Sprint ID is a significant breakthrough in my opinion as:

• it broadens the market appeal of Smart phones to current feature phones users with a simple to understand offer in a range of device price points including the critical $49 and $99 levels.
• it tackles one of the biggest weakness of all app stores: discoverability of content and simple personalization.

Three handsets were featured at launch of Sprint ID: Sanyo Zio™, Samsung Transform™, LG Optimus S™. These three devices cover key price points in the Sprint portfolio and provide customers with a range of form factors, industrial design and brand to meet their tastes. Interesting to note that both LG and Sanyo retain the right to put their own packs on their handsets as well. This is a big win for LG as its Optimus S™ will be available for under $50 with contract giving the vendor a much needed boost in the smartphone space. Samsung meanwhile continues to shine at Sprint occupying the lucrative $149 spot with its Transform™. All three devices of course require a Sprint Everything Data plan.

However, for me the more significant impact is that operators and oems are finally realizing that customers don’t buy phones or services or apps… what they really want are positive experiences

… be that socially connected, sports, education, health and fitness, fashion etc. This is something that our User Experience team has been evangelizing for the last 7+ years. Whether its 80k apps on Android or 250k on Apple store or 10K on RIM, one common experience has been exasperation at the huge waste of time, energy and emotions in finding ANYTHING!!! Which happens first, eyes glazing over or fingers cramping with so much scrolling? Either way the net result is often a disappointing experience which the early smart phone coolaid drinkers have learned to live with.

Newbies to the smart phone arena, will certainly have less tolerance and spend less time to personalize their device and enable applications. Sprint ID is well tailored to the next wave who are taking tentative steps into the smart phone space

 

David Kerr

dkerr@strategyanalytics.com

September 23, 2010

While there has understandably been a lot of attention given to consumer apps post iPhone and the plethora of application stores that have emerged, business mobility and enterprise mobility offer huge potential from horizontal to vertical applications and from smartphones to iPads and tablets to superphones.

In both NA and W. Europe, business customers account for under 30% of users but are the dominant streams of both revenue and profits for operators. On the device side, premium priced models from RIM, Nokia, and Microsoft Mobile licensees as well as the iPhone have long been key drivers of profits in a market where low single digit margins are the norm.  The explosion of smartphone choices has led to the battle ground moving beyond the corner office, to other executive and now increasingly the midlevel manager.

With a new range of devices competing for space in the corporate market, the issue of corporate versus individual liable has become an increasing priority for IT decision makers. Add on the complexity of managing an expanding list of OS (Android, iPhone, Windows Mobile, Symbian, Palm, MeeGo, Bada from Samsung) and the growing importance of mobile portable devices with access behind the firewall and one can already feel a corporate migraine forming…. And that’s before we even discuss device management, mobility policy, device retirement etc. etc.

I am looking forward to CTIA Fall (San Francisco October 5-7) and in particular to the Enterprise Mobility Boot Camp moderated by Philippe Winthrop of the Enterprise Mobility Foundation. The boot camp spread over two days will address many of the issue listed above with our own Andy Brown featured in an analyst roundtable on October 6^th.  I look forward to meeting you there. Don’t hesitate to contact Philippe for passes to this the deep dive enterprise mobility event.

David Kerr

David Kerr
Snr. VP - Global Wireless Practice
Tel: +1 617 614 0720
Mob: +1 262 271 8974

Is there any benefit for Vodafone making its LBS software open source? I’m sure developers will love to get their hands on this code and use it to develop appealing location enhanced applications. But other than attracting developers to write compelling location services that can be distributed through Vodafone’s 360 application store, the move surely falls short of Vodafone’s initial intentions after gobbling up Wayfinder in December 2008 for $29 million. Up until this point, Vodafone had been the only carrier to have acquired a location based service application developer in an attempt to move into other parts of the LBS value-chain beyond providing user location and managing subscriber privacy. Vodafone decided to close down Wayfinder in March 2010, after Google and then Nokia launched free mobile navigation in December 2009 and February 2010 respectively, eroding Vodafone’s prospects of charging a premium for Vodafone Navigator, its turn-by-turn location application. Prior to this open source announcement, it seems likely that Vodafone would have attempted to sell the unit. However, given the shift to a free business model for navigation, I strongly suspect that interest would have been very low. Although maps will continue to work on Vodafone 360 Samsung H1 and M1 devices, its branded search application, Vodafone Locate, will be discontinued. Vodafone Locate is no longer available in the iTunes App Store or the 360 Apps Shop, nor has it been embedded in devices since Vodafone announced the intended closure of Wayfinder. Vodafone Navigation is also being phased out, with a final decision on when and how to be made. Vodafone Navigation is no longer available in the 360 Apps Shop, nor has it been embedded on any devices since Vodafone announced the intended closure of Wayfinder. Vodafone will now offer navigation through a partner, a more profitable approach to running their own navigation service, as highlighted in our report ‘Nokia & Google Shake Up $3.8 B Handset Navigation Market.’ This withdrawal by Vodaofne underlines the broader challenge that operators face in competing on services with internet giants like Google, whose business model is based on advertising and handset vendors, like Nokia, Apple and RIM that recognise the importance of delivering well integrated services in order to drive further growth in handset market share. Nitesh Patel

 

May you live in interesting times as the old Chinese proverb goes. Well in the information, communication and entertainment industry we certainly do. Some very interesting questions face our industry whether we look at:

• the outcome of much delayed Indian 3G auction or
• the battlegrounds around HSPA+ and LTE or
• the surging Android ecosystem vs. weakening Symbian or
• the upside potential for WebOS under it new owners
• the potential disruption caused by mobile cloud phones and device

Every major technology advancement has lead to a massive disruption in the handset and infrastructure vendor community.

• In 3G, Motorola’s slim myopia led to its near ruin and has provided huge growth for Samsung and a foothold in international markets for LG and SEMC.
• On the infrastructure side 3G was expertly grasped by Huawei and ZTE leading to a new wave of M & A and a new world order which counts Nortel as a victim and seriously challenges ALU.

So how will the migration to 4G change the playing field?

• Who will benefit most on the operator/service provider side?
• Will Cloud Phones be disruptive in LTE?
• Will operators find a path to realign the traffic/revenue mix with mobile broadband devices?

I would welcome your thoughts on these key questions. Also don’t forget to join our client webinar on Thursday May 27.

 

David

Devices Perspective

As expected, the back half of the year is already full with Android announcements. When Android was first announced in late 2007, there was some skepticism in the industry that operators might find it tough to partner with Google and many of them would go for the “wait and watch” approach. It is fair to say that Google has dealt with the issue diligently by scoring wins with three of the top four major US carriers.  

As of today, the Android scorecard for major US operators is as follows:

T-Mobile USA : Three Android devices, the HTC MyTouch, Motorola Cliq and Samsung Behold 2. TMO US has been a slower mover in the converged device space. No doubt that the carrier is positioning Android as a preferred platform in the converged space.

Sprint: Two devices, the Samsung Moment and HTC Hero. The new devices will complement Palm devices in the smartphone segment. However, we believe the Palm Pre and Pixie are likely to remain the focus of the carrier during the holiday season.

Verizon: Two devices; although the device partners are not announced at this point. RIM has been a key vendor partner for VZW, especially in the converged device segment. Blackberry devices have benefitted from heavy promotions, such as the BOGO offer for most of the year (Buy One, Get One free). With the addition of Android in the Verizon portfolio, it will be interesting to see whether it will have any impact on subsidies/promotions offered on RIM devices during the seasonally strong fourth quarter.

AT&T: AT&T is under no pressure to include Android to its portfolio in the near term. The Apple iPhone is doing a superb job in attracting new subscribers and upgrades. However, the carrier has hinted on several occasions that they are open to multiple platforms. The AT&T portfolio already supports Windows Mobile and Symbian in addition to RIM and iPhone. In our view, it is only a matter of time that additional platforms, such as WebOS and Android, will be joining the ranks of AT&T.

Android’s penetration of major carriers' portfolios will fuel interest among the developer community to build compelling applications. The US is the world's most important handset market and Android has gotten off to a good start. Although the expansion of Android to major US carriers' portfolios is good news for Google, it is too early to say whether the devices announced so far have sufficient traits to differentiate sustainably from one another.  It remains to be seen how effectively OEMs utilize Android in differentiating from the sea of Android devices expected to join carrier ranks in the next 6 to 9 months.