CES Preview day was all about hardware, but day 1 was all about filling that hardware with new and innovative content.

1. Extending TV content to mobile devices. This is perhaps one of the most compelling trends expected to proliferate in 2011. Verizon and Time Warner shared the stage to discuss the evolution of TV Everywhere. Dish Network will further extend its Sling Media ability by allowing subscribers to access their live and recorded content on Android devices. The extension of pay TV content to the mobile device will surely complicate the mobile media market in the US by offering an already paid for alternative to mobile specific solutions such as Primetime2Go or even iTunes.

2. Mobile Media continues to grow up. First, Hulu Plus announced it would be available on Android devices soon. This brings Android on par with iPhone but the long lag between the Hulu Plus Beta launch in August and the eventual release of Hulu Plus on Android shows that content owners clearly see iPhone as the premier platform for now. Finding a way to fuse digital and physical, Ultraviolet continued to discuss its development in making accessing owned content more convenient through a digital locker and embedding the technology in as many devices as possible. For more information about Ultraviolet read my Fierce Wireless article. The goal of both services is to increase consumption and with ever larger screens on handsets and the tablet incursion of 2011 these services will find a waiting audience.

3. Video is key to 2011 and beyond. As LTE launches, new video services become available, and phones offering more multimedia-centric features 2011 is sure to be the year of mobile video. But video is about more than just professional content. It also encompasses video conferencing. Recognizing this opportunity, Skype acquired Qik, a provider of mobile video software and services that enable individuals to capture, instantly share and preserve great moments on video from anywhere. This will surely help Skype better compete with other video conferencing services.

What is evident from these announcements is that content owners see mobile as the next big opportunity as well as a necessary outlet for ecosystem building. How networks will handle the load associated with all this video remains to be seen as most popular applications today – broadly speaking – are light on network usage compared to video streaming apps. But its clear that 2011 will be the year of mobile video.

CES 2011 is nearly upon us and the conference will unveil to the public innovations that will shape the year. So, as press day hits its stride it's evident that there are a few key themes in mobile media we can expect throughout the conference and 2011. One key phrase to sum up the events thus far; thinner, faster (both device and network), and bigger (Which is not a contradiction with the first adjective). 1. 4G. One of the buzzwords that will be discussed throughout the show and has been said more times today than zealots at a Steve Jobs keynote say ooh and aah. 4G is clearly the future and for a multimedia loving public the ability to stream and download content more quickly will impact their device usage. 2. Thin. Depending on when a handset manufacturer announced their newest flagship handset today they were briefly the "thinnest smartphone on the planet." Peruse a few press releases and this key phrase will unabashedly appear at the top. 3. Fast. The 1.2GHz Qualcomm SnapDragon processor (and its competitors) and dual core variants will begin making their way into handsets this year. For content consumption this will inevitably mean richer applications, more immersive games, and of course HD video consumption/recording/editing. 4. Cross Platform. Whether it be a TV, a tablet, or a car cross platform services are quickly becoming the rage. As OpenFeint discussed at the AT&T developer conference this morning the ability to compete with friends across platform is the future. Also at the AT&T event discussions were had about developing apps for U-Verse that work on various tablets and phones. For users hoping to better immerse themselves in their content, apps, and games this cross platform functionality will change how they view the ecosystem of products they buy and allow for the creation of very compelling apps unlike anything we've seen so far. 5. Bigger. Screen sizes are growing ever larger (Samsung has a 4.5" device coming) and compatibility with third party accessories such as PC docks and HDTVs will turn phones into a hub for media consumption unlike ever before. For users uninterested in consuming content on a 3.5" screen the new options will make media consumption much more compelling and should impact the growth of digital content distribution as well. This is just the beginning of course and if you're interested in hearing more you can follow Strategy Analytics analysts by tracking the hastag #SACES on Twitter or view our intermittent live stream from CES at .

Words like ‘experimental,’ and ‘niche,’ are often used to describe the status of advertising on mobile phones. However, on 14th October 2010 Google announced that its mobile advertising business is currently operating at a $1 billion annual run rate, which I believe represents a significant milestone and proof point that advertisers are beginning to take mobile advertising much more seriously. Strategy Analytics estimates that globally advertiser spending on mobile will reach over $6.9 billion in 2010, which we estimate would give Google a 15% share of the total mobile advertising market. This compares to Google’s 35% share of the total digital advertising market. We are not surprised that Google’s share in mobile advertising is lower than its total digital share given that mobile advertising is more fragmented than the online advertising market. Our advertising estimates are built on assumptions about growing mobile media usage and the average price that advertisers pay media owners to display their adverts within their properties. Indeed, Google has confirmed this growth in usage is fuelling the rise in its mobile advertising revenue - the company claims that search queries conducted by mobile handsets has increased by 500% over the past two years, with search queries from Android devices playing a role in that growth. Search requests from Android phones increased 300% in 1H 2010. This evidence of improving usage will also have a positive impact on advertisers’ attitude towards allocating their budgets to mobile, with companies like Google, Apple, Microsoft, AOL, and Millenial Media positioned to benefit from this shifting sentiment. Although Apple is a one platform pony in the handset market it has shown how successful it can be at exploiting its niche. In June 2010 at its WWDC Apple stated that advertisers had already committed $60 million to its iAd platform. As online advertising networks Microsoft and Yahoo also continue to ramp up activity in mobile advertising, the next big question is – who will follow Google to be the next $1 billion mobile advertising company? Nitesh Patel

At CTIA in San Francisco last week, away from the fanfare around LTE rollouts and the next dozen tablet devices (ok, I exaggerate a little), Sprint had an announcement which will have significantly higher impact on mobile broadband adoption and revenues: Sprint ID. 

Sprint ID promises to up the ante on personalization and ease current feature phone users into the smart phone ranks.

Sprint ID offers instant personalization along key themes/packs where the operator has done the heavy lifting of identifying and group related applications of interest to different persona from wallpaper to ringtones to apps. While the one click marketing line is not quite matched by reality given pesky little things like accepting terms and conditions etc, Sprint ID is a significant breakthrough in my opinion as:

• it broadens the market appeal of Smart phones to current feature phones users with a simple to understand offer in a range of device price points including the critical $49 and $99 levels.
• it tackles one of the biggest weakness of all app stores: discoverability of content and simple personalization.

Three handsets were featured at launch of Sprint ID: Sanyo Zio™, Samsung Transform™, LG Optimus S™. These three devices cover key price points in the Sprint portfolio and provide customers with a range of form factors, industrial design and brand to meet their tastes. Interesting to note that both LG and Sanyo retain the right to put their own packs on their handsets as well. This is a big win for LG as its Optimus S™ will be available for under $50 with contract giving the vendor a much needed boost in the smartphone space. Samsung meanwhile continues to shine at Sprint occupying the lucrative $149 spot with its Transform™. All three devices of course require a Sprint Everything Data plan.

However, for me the more significant impact is that operators and oems are finally realizing that customers don’t buy phones or services or apps… what they really want are positive experiences

… be that socially connected, sports, education, health and fitness, fashion etc. This is something that our User Experience team has been evangelizing for the last 7+ years. Whether its 80k apps on Android or 250k on Apple store or 10K on RIM, one common experience has been exasperation at the huge waste of time, energy and emotions in finding ANYTHING!!! Which happens first, eyes glazing over or fingers cramping with so much scrolling? Either way the net result is often a disappointing experience which the early smart phone coolaid drinkers have learned to live with.

Newbies to the smart phone arena, will certainly have less tolerance and spend less time to personalize their device and enable applications. Sprint ID is well tailored to the next wave who are taking tentative steps into the smart phone space

 

David Kerr

dkerr@strategyanalytics.com

The great thing about sitting on an industry award judging panel is that now and again entrants provide data points or insights that we as analysts can use as assumptions or estimates. In this instance I was honoured to be sitting on the MEFFY judging panel for Technology Innovation, an award that was presented at the Meffys Gala Awards Ceremony on 21st June 2010. One entrant, a mobile ad company which shall not be named, provided stats about its interactive mobile video adverts, which made for interesting reading. Interactive video delivers the advert in a software player that can be customised and made interactive by the advertiser by adding menu options and links to websites or advertising micro portals. Client: Vehicle manufacturer Cost of campaign: €37,606 Number of impressions: 3,497,920 Click on the video: 55,735 (CTR 1.6%) Number of video advert views: 47,525 (eCPM €791) The first thing to note is that the effective CPM for interactive video, which is over €791 in this case, has some way to fall before we begin to see its widespread use and adoption by media brands. Our average CPM estimate for a mobile video ad (which is generated following discussions with mobile advertising companies) is around $7, significantly below the €791 premium for interactive video adverts. The second interesting point is that 15% of consumers that clicked to play the video advert did not watch it. We can speculate why these might be, (see below) but most of the likely problems could likely be solved if the advertising network worked alongside the operator for better device, network and user targeting: 1) The devices/lack of targeting: i.e. they didn't target the ad at people with video-capable devices, or they didn't create the video in all formats so it wouldn't play on some devices. Can operators can provide more detailed information about target handsets and restrict this failure rate? 2) The network: Failed download due to limited bandwidth or connectivity. Operators should be able to provide information to the service provider to adapt their video rate to the current capability of the network. 3) Users not on data plans: An operator could prevent the user running away screaming by zero-rating. While there is much innovation for advertising outside the carrier ecosystem, in my view operators can indeed play an important role in smoothing over any cracks and help enable a potentially lucrative mobile advertising industry for all parties. Nitesh Patel

When I saw last week’s latest NFC payments trial announcement by the GSMA, I have to confess my immediate thought was - So what? Another day, another contactless payment trial.

In 2006 I estimated that by 2011 mobile would facilitate $35 billion worth of contactless transactions, which has clearly been wildly off the mark! I hold my hand up and admit that I underestimated how slowly it would take to roll out mobile contactless payments. Despite this, it remains my opinion that handset based contactless payments will eventually support billions of transactions, driven mainly by strong convenience motives. Ever decided not to bother buying a snack or a magazine at a newsagent after seeing the length of the queue? Well, contactless payments should mean faster movement of queues; less waiting and greater likelihood you will complete your transaction. Importantly for businesses it will scale down cash handling costs. Yes, there are some competing contactless instruments, like contactless cards, but why bother thumbing through several cards in your wallet when you can just whip out your phone and be on your way?

The technology implementation of contactless payments on handsets has been agreed on by operators and device vendors through the GSMA Paybuy initiative. Furthermore, facilitating contactless payment is part of the strategy of leading payment companies (banks and credit cards) like MasterCard, and Barclays. So what’s preventing full deployments? Operators are waiting for the handsets from vendors. The handset vendors are waiting to see when retailers upgrade their terminals to accommodate contactless payments. Meanwhile, merchants won’t invest in contactless technology until they see evidence of wider deployments of contactless payment instruments, so we're in a deadlock situation. To their credit (pardon the pun) banks and major credit card companies are taking the lead by distributing and marketing contactless payment cards. Over time this will lead to growing adoption of contactless infrastructure among merchants and remove one of the barriers to take off.

However, critical business model issues still need to be resolved. Operators want compensation for subsidising these new payment instruments into the market and they are in a position of control because payment applications will reside on SIM cards issued by them. Within an established ecosystem for payment accommodating an extra few mouths to feed will remain a key challenge, and an area which we intend to investigate further in up coming reports on contactless payments later this year.

Nitesh Patel

Handset vendor Apple entered the mobile advertising arena by acquiring mobile advertising network Quattro in January 2010 for a reported $275 million. The move follows Google's $750 million acquisition of rival advertising network Admob in November 2009. 

In theory Apple now also has a distinct advantage over other rival advertising networks that serve adverts onto Apple's devices.

Through the iTunes and app store Apple has access to information about the type of applications purchased by their customers, how much they spend on applications, how frequently they download, and because the registration process for Apple devices requires the submission of profile data, some demographic data. Furthermore, Apple can innovate and be creative in the types of advertising units it makes available. 

• Consequently, unlike other advertising networks, including Admob, Apple is potentially in a better position to provide superior ad targeting and attract a greater share of mobile advertising dollars directed to Apple's own devices.
• Apple's focused strategy will continue to reap benefits, as its mobile device installed base continues to expand.

However, Google will be better positioned to capitalize on the $23 billion mobile advertising market with its broader approach to cover all handset types.

With Google and Apple making acquisitions to enter the mobile advertising market, should competing handset vendors jump on the bandwagon? I believe they would be unwise to do so.

• A successful mobile advertising network requires scale across a portfolio of handsets and media. Or, in the case of Apple, exploiting the data they have about their customers (who advertisers perceive as an attractive bunch) along with the end-to-end control they have over the device and service delivery.

At this stage most handset vendors have very little information about their device owners to provide useful targeting, and consequently little value-add to advertisers compared to other ad networks that offer greater scale.

Conflict of interests with operator channel partners is another reason for vendors to hang back. Operators have their own ambitions to use customer data in order to provide mobile ad targeting and device vendors will encroach on this territory.

It's worth noting that scale does not guarantee success either. Nokia's experience in mobile advertising provides a cautionary tale.

Nitesh Patel

 

As we rapidly close the cover on one of the toughest years the telecommunications, content and internet industries have ever seen, SA takes a look ahead beyond the recession to detail the key megatrends for the mobile industry in 2010.

We see a tough but positive mobile ecosystem outlook with devices recovering stronger than services. More consolidation is likely among network operators, while profits for device vendors will continue to flow away from handset only vendors in favor of device/services integration specialists. Emerging markets will continue to dominate volume with strong 3G rollout competition expected. The global market for services, applications, devices and infrastructure will post modest growth of approximately 3% in 2010.

The total mobile industry revenue including services, infrastructure and devices was flat in 2009. We expect a modest growth of 2.8% in 2010 to $1140B.

· In 2009, only strong growth in data spends by users ensured that total industry revenues did not decline. Data revenues grew 9.5% in 2009 and are expected to grow at a 13% rate in 2010 reaching over $200B.

· Handset market sell through revenue will rebound well in 2010, posting growth of 4% while the infrastructure market will continue to struggle and will decline slightly.

Key issues shaping the 2010 landscape include:

• Operators needing to balance the the strong rise in Capex requirements driven by the data traffic explosion against slow revenue growth. The likely outcome being significant M&A, network sharing and even applications development.
• Handset OEMs will be forced will put the early stake in the ground for new device categories. Traditional OEMS will continue to struggle to match the Apple & Google vertical integration strategy which has proven so successful.
• As the big five vendors focus on smart phones and content/services in the open markets, a race develops to get services/apps onto feature phone products or other operator customized devices
• On-portal traffic continues to grow but is outpaced by off portal session growth. Contextualization and personalization of the user experience will determine winners and losers.
• The rapid diffusion of Flash and HTML 5 on handsets could negate much of the need for mediacos to use open platforms/app stores in mature markets.
• In the business sector we see SMEs and Manage Mobility as key battlegrounds. We see growth in hosted services for SMEs (e.g. Unified Communications infrastructure-one phone mobile and fixed, one voicemail etc.  Personal v corporate liable devices (iPhone v BlackBerry) becomes a major issue.
• In the Emerging Markets area we see consolidation & 3G expansion in urban areas as key battlegrounds. With improved financing prospects, there will be significant consolidation among regional operators and rationalization of holdings.

In many ways, convergence between online and mobile is already here. For some types of content, convergence with mobile was something that just happened. Take music; as soon as phones became music players, “convergence” was already in place. Strategy Analytics’ consumer research shows 83% of Western Europeans and Americans have used their phone as a music player, with 37% using the devices as their regular portable music player (although only 6% have actually purchased music on their phone, but that’s a different story… see Can Nokia Challenge Apple's Digital Music Dominance).  For media companies and internet brands, it’s no longer about whether or not they should have a mobile presence, but rather what form that mobile presence takes. An optimized web page? An app in the App Store? A deal with an operator? These are all options, sure, but for me it’s a shame that most of the discussion around convergence is simply about making the same content available on the mobile device. Rather than focus on convergence, which is clearly the direction media markets are heading (if they haven’t already arrived, as in the case of music), I’d like to look instead at what I see as step 2 – divergence. By divergence, what do I mean? I’m talking about the unique factors of mobile; what is it that makes the mobile environment different, and how can that be used to provide a better user experience - and thus, ultimately, greater revenues? Yes, there is a smaller screen size, lower processing power, and of course a mobile experience has to be designed around these limiting factors, but there are also some strongly positive characteristics about mobile usage which can actually be used to improve the experience. One of the first things that people might expect me to talk about here is the idea of targeted advertising. However, I’m not going to go down that route – aside from the fact that you’ve almost certainly heard it all before, targeted advertising is not something that enhances the user experience. It’s simply a tool to attempt to generate slightly higher advertising revenues. I’m not talking about the content either – made for mobile content has rarely been popular, and it seems that what consumers want is traditional content. So what am I talking about? It’s the experience, not the content, which has to be “made for mobile”. An example of a media type where mobile actually adds something new is social networking. The constantly updating nature of social networks along with the “always on, always with you” nature of the mobile phone is a match made in heaven. Strategy Analytics conducted a survey of MySpace users, and found that more users accessed MySpace Mobile daily than the main MySpace.com website. With such high levels of mobile usage, it seems remarkable that the most popular social networks (MySpace and facebook) have yet to monetize this traffic. Usage patterns were quite different – sessions were shorter and tended to be limited to status updates and comments (see Mobile Social Networking - Strategies for Success ). Mobile isn’t exactly converging with online, it’s diverging – mobile will become the main use case for social networks, and the usage will be different from how it has been in the online world. To make the most of this opportunity, social networks need to think about how mobile is different, not just simply try and replicate the desktop experience on mobile. Context is another way in which mobile is very different from online. If I’m accessing a website from my desktop, I am at my desk. If I’m accessing a website from my mobile, I could be anywhere, and the place I am at matters. Taking a simple example, if I’m in town and I’m searching for a movie, I almost certainly want cinema listings close to where I am located. I’m unlikely to want to go to the movie’s own website, or the IMDB page (typically these will be the top 2 search results). Location clearly matters, and this is why both Nokia and Google have been investing so heavily in maps products. Google has a huge head-start online, as not only are Google Maps available through Google's own web properties, they are available on many other websites. This has given Google a 44% share of the local search market (comScore, July 2008). In terms of handsets, Nokia has something of a lead as it pre-installs Ovi Maps on Nokia smartphones. In just 3 years, Nokia went from being non-existent in this market to being the world’s largest manufacturer of GPS devices. The location capabilities of phones add divergence from the fixed, online world – optimizing search results for my location is one way to really enhance the user experience, but it has the potential to add all sorts of richness to other media (see Nokia Strides Forward in Online Location and Navigation and Crowd Sourcing Model to Disrupt Premium Mobile Navigation Market) Take social networking, where as I discussed earlier, mobile is already driving usage. Nokia announced a deal with facebook, and facebook users with Ovi Maps on their device can now post their location. Users can tag photographs uploaded from phones with GPS coordinates. There’s really quite a number of ways in which the mobile experience can actually add something new and I really believe that these early examples are just the tip of the iceberg. Now that people can access the same content online and on mobile (and the iPhone has proven that) we already have convergence. What is going to be exciting to watch, and where we’ll see the really exciting innovation, is actually the divergence of mobile. - David MacQueen, Director, Wireless Media Strategies

 

As guest speakers David Kerr and I have just returned from the the inaugural Metaplaces location based services conference in San Jose 22nd-23rd September 2009. The event was attended by companies across the LBS value-chain. Among others, content providers such as Inrix, USA Today, WCities; Digital mapping companies Tele Atlas, Navteq, Waze, Open Streetmap; LBS application publishers uLocate, Wavemarket, Loopt, Google; LBS solution vendors Openwave, Sense Networks, 1020 Placecast, and Qualcomm. Notably, there was an absence of operators and advertisers, with only US carrier MetroPCS and Publicis representing respectively. The fact that so few carriers were in attendance underlines why they are losing their position in LBS, yes pun intended sadly, and suggests that LBS remains off their list of priorities.  

The three main standouts for this event for us were:

1. Waze: We were most impressed by the social digital mapping company Waze, who proclaimed it has recently expanded its application to Symbian and Windows Mobile platforms, and has just reached a critical mass of 160,000 users in Israel. Waze offers a free turn-by-turn (TBT) navigation application based on digitized census map data. This basic map is being constantly improved by a community of users whom allow their handsets to be tracked as they drive. Further user participation involves users actively annotating details to the map (e.g. notifying Waze of new roads, new one-way signs and changes to traffic flows, etc within the application). Making the process of user feedback as pain free as possible is clearly imperative to enhance participation levels. Overall, the model relies on an appealing trade off. Firstly, the user gets a free TBT application, and their incentive to improve the map and offer information is that their free TBT application will improve further in quality. Secondly, the benefit for Waze is rather than invest billions of dollars to collect map data, a la Nokia, its community is doing so on its behalf. According to Waze 1% of cellular users per market is sufficient. Armed with an improving digital map Waze can to some extent compete with TeleAtlas and Navteq in licensing of digital map data. Everyone is a winner, and although the quality of the maps are unlikely to compete with Tele Atlas or Navteq, the success of Wikipedia underlines the potential of user or community generated content.   
2. Uncertainty around monetization: We were looking forward hearing case studies about how companies had started to use location data to make money - the tag line for the event was 'How to Monetize Location Data & Services,' so can you blame us? Despite numerous innovative ideas about how location can be used, it is clear that most players in the LBS industry are still trying to figure out what business models will prevail, and many are pinning their hopes on advertising. There's little disputing that user location data can improve ad targeting if cleverly combined with other relevant data about the consumer. However, Sense Networks claims to have gone a step further. Its analytical tools allow it to categorize cellular users into classic (and not so classic) consumer segments based on tracking their movements over the course of a few months. This solution clearly addresses the problem that carriers have collecting data about their prepaid customer bases, and kills two birds with one stone. Firstly, carriers with large prepaid subscriber bases (in markets like Italy and many emerging markets) can learn more about their customers and adjust their own service marketing accordingly. Secondly, carriers with ambitions of becoming a smart pipe are in a stronger position to provide consumer targeting information to advertisers. Oh yes, as you'd expect, discussion about privacy implications was a key feature during the entire conference.      
3. US carrier bottleneck: US operators remain a bottle neck to location based service availability. While owners of smartphones integrated with GPS are able to use the rising number of location enabled applications that are available through vendor application stores, the majority of non-smartphone users are restricted to the services the carriers make available through their portals. To provide an example of how slowly US operators are moving regional US cellular operator MetroPCS is only just about to make location look ups available to third party applications that are distributed through its portal. It is yet to consider opening up user look ups on a wholesale basis. While US operators continue to guard the location data of their customers, carriers will continue to fall behind and LBS innovation will continue without them.

While innovation continues in the LBS sector, mainly outside the carrier channel, the unanswered question remains - where is the money?