September 23, 2010

While there has understandably been a lot of attention given to consumer apps post iPhone and the plethora of application stores that have emerged, business mobility and enterprise mobility offer huge potential from horizontal to vertical applications and from smartphones to iPads and tablets to superphones.

In both NA and W. Europe, business customers account for under 30% of users but are the dominant streams of both revenue and profits for operators. On the device side, premium priced models from RIM, Nokia, and Microsoft Mobile licensees as well as the iPhone have long been key drivers of profits in a market where low single digit margins are the norm.  The explosion of smartphone choices has led to the battle ground moving beyond the corner office, to other executive and now increasingly the midlevel manager.

With a new range of devices competing for space in the corporate market, the issue of corporate versus individual liable has become an increasing priority for IT decision makers. Add on the complexity of managing an expanding list of OS (Android, iPhone, Windows Mobile, Symbian, Palm, MeeGo, Bada from Samsung) and the growing importance of mobile portable devices with access behind the firewall and one can already feel a corporate migraine forming…. And that’s before we even discuss device management, mobility policy, device retirement etc. etc.

I am looking forward to CTIA Fall (San Francisco October 5-7) and in particular to the Enterprise Mobility Boot Camp moderated by Philippe Winthrop of the Enterprise Mobility Foundation. The boot camp spread over two days will address many of the issue listed above with our own Andy Brown featured in an analyst roundtable on October 6^th.  I look forward to meeting you there. Don’t hesitate to contact Philippe for passes to this the deep dive enterprise mobility event.

David Kerr

David Kerr
Snr. VP - Global Wireless Practice
Tel: +1 617 614 0720
Mob: +1 262 271 8974

One message I've consistently been hearing from Nokia over the last two years has been that all of the different Ovi services will somehow combine together to make something wonderful that would "delight users" (their words). Nokia never gave any concrete examples, and I was starting to think that this was simply vaporware - but now that all the services are together and under the same Ovi banner, there is some magic starting to happen. The Nokia Gig Finder application genuinely impressed me at this year's Nokia World. The premise is simple - but then aren't all the best ideas? The Gig Finder app looks at the music you have on your phone, checks your location, and then suggests up-coming gigs for you. You can buy tickets directly, message your friends about it, save the gig on your calendar, get directions to the gig and listen to some more music from the artist to get you in the mood for the gig as well!. Music, Maps, Billing, Messaging, Social Networking and the phone's Calendar all coming together - which sounds like it should be far too complex for the user but in fact the app is remarkably simple and intuitive. All of the technical stuff is hidden and it is the complex integration of services at the back-end and the single sign-in (which has taken Nokia over a year to achieve across its Ovi suite) which makes this sort of stuff possible. An interesting, innovative, compelling, useful app which is greater than the sum of its parts - and with a developer community numbering over 3 million, I'm hoping to see more innovation like this emerging out of the Nokia ecosystem. As Thomas Edison said, "genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration". After the years of talk, they needed something to prove there can be an end product. I'm sure there has been plenty of perspiration behind the scenes at Nokia as they rolled out and integrated these services, at last that 1% inspiration is starting to show. Related reports: Nokia Opens Up To Innovation - David MacQueen

Is there any benefit for Vodafone making its LBS software open source? I’m sure developers will love to get their hands on this code and use it to develop appealing location enhanced applications. But other than attracting developers to write compelling location services that can be distributed through Vodafone’s 360 application store, the move surely falls short of Vodafone’s initial intentions after gobbling up Wayfinder in December 2008 for $29 million. Up until this point, Vodafone had been the only carrier to have acquired a location based service application developer in an attempt to move into other parts of the LBS value-chain beyond providing user location and managing subscriber privacy. Vodafone decided to close down Wayfinder in March 2010, after Google and then Nokia launched free mobile navigation in December 2009 and February 2010 respectively, eroding Vodafone’s prospects of charging a premium for Vodafone Navigator, its turn-by-turn location application. Prior to this open source announcement, it seems likely that Vodafone would have attempted to sell the unit. However, given the shift to a free business model for navigation, I strongly suspect that interest would have been very low. Although maps will continue to work on Vodafone 360 Samsung H1 and M1 devices, its branded search application, Vodafone Locate, will be discontinued. Vodafone Locate is no longer available in the iTunes App Store or the 360 Apps Shop, nor has it been embedded in devices since Vodafone announced the intended closure of Wayfinder. Vodafone Navigation is also being phased out, with a final decision on when and how to be made. Vodafone Navigation is no longer available in the 360 Apps Shop, nor has it been embedded on any devices since Vodafone announced the intended closure of Wayfinder. Vodafone will now offer navigation through a partner, a more profitable approach to running their own navigation service, as highlighted in our report ‘Nokia & Google Shake Up $3.8 B Handset Navigation Market.’ This withdrawal by Vodaofne underlines the broader challenge that operators face in competing on services with internet giants like Google, whose business model is based on advertising and handset vendors, like Nokia, Apple and RIM that recognise the importance of delivering well integrated services in order to drive further growth in handset market share. Nitesh Patel

Mobile social networks: Loyalty, Publishing, and Revenue: Oh My! You may think that because we have ushered in the digital age there will be fundamental shifts in human behavior. You’d be wrong. Services such as Gowalla, Foursquare, Loopt, and even Yelp are finally at the tipping point of success because they tap into latent human desire. And then make acting on those desires simple. Much like the loyalty programs that offered a tenth sandwich after getting nine purchases punched on a card new social networks are offering benefits for loyalty firmly merging the physical and digital world. The aforementioned services are mobile social networks – allowing users to check-in to locations, earn badges for visiting pre-determined locales, and net loyalty rewards (such as free drinks) for particular achievements. The availability of smartphones and the opening up of mapping API’s will help these solutions succeed where other have failed. For greater insight see David MacQueen’s Insight Nokia Strides Forward in Online Location and Navigation. The most amazing part of these networks is the willingness of brick and mortar companies to participate. Becoming a Mayor (by visiting a place the most) on Foursquare and earning a free burger can only be achieved if the establishment opts in. And they are opting in. But free fare is just the beginning. In the last few weeks Foursquare has partnered with the American television network Bravo – allowing Blackberry users to earn special Bravo badges when they visit pre-determined locations, which one can assume will complement Bravo’s programming. Another Foursquare partnership with Canada’s Metro newspaper will provide location aware content from the newspaper’s nightlife section and eventually other sections as well. Finally, Foursquare most recently partnered with Zagat, allowing users to earn special Foodie badges at Zagat rated restaurants as well as offering restaurant tips. So, what does this all mean? Is it just a passing fad? In short, no. It seems like this is the new era in customer loyalty. While the social networking aspect of it remains new the ultimate goal is to drive user behavior. And open user’s wallets. While the players may change the fundamental merging of the physical and digital world is happening. Just this week OpenTable announced it had seated more than 2 million restaurateurs through its mobile applications. GyPSii is also building location based applications that offer location specific advertising such as coupons. While publishing companies will tout solutions such as the iPad as saving their businesses the truth is, services like location aware social networks could be the true path to salvation by driving consumer to spend identifiable real world dollars on real world goods.

Today, Nokia announced the inclusion of free turn by turn navigation on ten phone models – further enhancing Ovi’s value proposition. The service, which is almost certainly to be seen as a fast follower to Google’s similar launch in late 2009 should in fact be viewed as pushing an industry on the precipice over the edge. But the question is – does turn by turn even matter? From purely a platform perspective – yes, for now. For others such as Apple to follow suit they will need map data, turn by turn licensing agreements, an acquisition perhaps, or take a hit on margins. While Apple may find a way to bring turn by turn to the iPhone in short order, Nokia and Google have laid down the gauntlet by using maps as a competitive differentiator, a difference the companies must hammer home while the advantage is theirs. The proprietary ownership of mapping data is a huge advantage for Nokia (Navteq) and Google. There is a famous saying, wherever you go – there you are. But such antiquated logic demands an update and today we would be trite not to say, wherever you are - there your phone is. If you are not yet prepared to accept this reality you should peruse Yelp, foursquare, Loopt, Aka-Aki, Gree or Gowalla and you will clearly see that the future of mobile is not only about where you are but where you are going. By enabling turn by turn navigation on its devices both Google and Nokia have assured developers that location based services will be available to those seeking to include them in applications while making location based advertising easier. Nokia has two advantages over Google. Firstly its scale - S60 devices are ahead of Android devices, for now at least. Secondly, its navigation solution resides primarily on the device, not on the network. For users who travel internationally and don’t want to pay roaming charges, those with spotty coverage, or those who don’t want a data plan this is a huge advantage. For carriers hoping to offload some network congestion this approach is a relief. Of course, it's threat to carriers hoping to bundle TBT for an additional cost. For consumers (primarily those that do not own stock in a GPS manufacturer) this is a big win. For Nokia, "free" is a significant improvement on its current proposition but the company will have to do more in the long term to be seen as an innovator and not a fast follower. Despite the momentum building towards turn by turn navigation the features are simply a means towards a longer term end. Knowing where people are, where they are going, and how they are getting there is incredibly valuable information and could lead to a plethora of new advertising opportunities in addition to new applications. Related research: Nokia strides forward in online location and navigation Location based services, opportunities within an emerging battleground -Josh M

Today, Nokia announced the inclusion of free turn by turn navigation on ten phone models – further enhancing Ovi’s value proposition. The service, which is almost certainly to be seen as a fast follower to Google’s similar launch in late 2009 should in fact be viewed as pushing an industry on the precipice over the edge. But the question is – does turn by turn even matter? From purely a platform perspective – yes, for now. For others such as Apple to follow suit they will need map data, turn by turn licensing agreements, an acquisition perhaps, or take a hit on margins. While Apple may find a way to bring turn by turn to the iPhone in short order, Nokia and Google have laid down the gauntlet by using maps as a competitive differentiator, a difference the companies must hammer home while the advantage is theirs. The proprietary ownership of mapping data is a huge advantage for Nokia (Navteq) and Google. There is a famous saying, wherever you go – there you are. But such antiquated logic demands an update and today we would be trite not to say, wherever you are - there your phone is. If you are not yet prepared to accept this reality you should peruse Yelp, foursquare, Loopt, Aka-Aki, Gree or Gowalla and you will clearly see that the future of mobile is not only about where you are but where you are going. By enabling turn by turn navigation on its devices both Google and Nokia have assured developers that location based services will be available to those seeking to include them in applications while making location based advertising easier. Nokia has two advantages over Google. Firstly its scale - S60 devices are ahead of Android devices, for now at least. Secondly, its navigation solution resides primarily on the device, not on the network. For users who travel internationally and don’t want to pay roaming charges, those with spotty coverage, or those who don’t want a data plan this is a huge advantage. For carriers hoping to offload some network congestion this approach is a relief. Of course, it's threat to carriers hoping to bundle TBT for an additional cost. For consumers (primarily those that do not own stock in a GPS manufacturer) this is a big win. For Nokia, "free" is a significant improvement on its current proposition but the company will have to do more in the long term to be seen as an innovator and not a fast follower. Despite the momentum building towards turn by turn navigation the features are simply a means towards a longer term end. Knowing where people are, where they are going, and how they are getting there is incredibly valuable information and could lead to a plethora of new advertising opportunities in addition to new applications. Related research: Nokia strides forward in online location and navigation Location based services, opportunities within an emerging battleground -Josh M

Handset vendor Apple entered the mobile advertising arena by acquiring mobile advertising network Quattro in January 2010 for a reported $275 million. The move follows Google's $750 million acquisition of rival advertising network Admob in November 2009. 

In theory Apple now also has a distinct advantage over other rival advertising networks that serve adverts onto Apple's devices.

Through the iTunes and app store Apple has access to information about the type of applications purchased by their customers, how much they spend on applications, how frequently they download, and because the registration process for Apple devices requires the submission of profile data, some demographic data. Furthermore, Apple can innovate and be creative in the types of advertising units it makes available. 

• Consequently, unlike other advertising networks, including Admob, Apple is potentially in a better position to provide superior ad targeting and attract a greater share of mobile advertising dollars directed to Apple's own devices.
• Apple's focused strategy will continue to reap benefits, as its mobile device installed base continues to expand.

However, Google will be better positioned to capitalize on the $23 billion mobile advertising market with its broader approach to cover all handset types.

With Google and Apple making acquisitions to enter the mobile advertising market, should competing handset vendors jump on the bandwagon? I believe they would be unwise to do so.

• A successful mobile advertising network requires scale across a portfolio of handsets and media. Or, in the case of Apple, exploiting the data they have about their customers (who advertisers perceive as an attractive bunch) along with the end-to-end control they have over the device and service delivery.

At this stage most handset vendors have very little information about their device owners to provide useful targeting, and consequently little value-add to advertisers compared to other ad networks that offer greater scale.

Conflict of interests with operator channel partners is another reason for vendors to hang back. Operators have their own ambitions to use customer data in order to provide mobile ad targeting and device vendors will encroach on this territory.

It's worth noting that scale does not guarantee success either. Nokia's experience in mobile advertising provides a cautionary tale.

Nitesh Patel

In many ways, convergence between online and mobile is already here. For some types of content, convergence with mobile was something that just happened. Take music; as soon as phones became music players, “convergence” was already in place. Strategy Analytics’ consumer research shows 83% of Western Europeans and Americans have used their phone as a music player, with 37% using the devices as their regular portable music player (although only 6% have actually purchased music on their phone, but that’s a different story… see Can Nokia Challenge Apple's Digital Music Dominance).  For media companies and internet brands, it’s no longer about whether or not they should have a mobile presence, but rather what form that mobile presence takes. An optimized web page? An app in the App Store? A deal with an operator? These are all options, sure, but for me it’s a shame that most of the discussion around convergence is simply about making the same content available on the mobile device. Rather than focus on convergence, which is clearly the direction media markets are heading (if they haven’t already arrived, as in the case of music), I’d like to look instead at what I see as step 2 – divergence. By divergence, what do I mean? I’m talking about the unique factors of mobile; what is it that makes the mobile environment different, and how can that be used to provide a better user experience - and thus, ultimately, greater revenues? Yes, there is a smaller screen size, lower processing power, and of course a mobile experience has to be designed around these limiting factors, but there are also some strongly positive characteristics about mobile usage which can actually be used to improve the experience. One of the first things that people might expect me to talk about here is the idea of targeted advertising. However, I’m not going to go down that route – aside from the fact that you’ve almost certainly heard it all before, targeted advertising is not something that enhances the user experience. It’s simply a tool to attempt to generate slightly higher advertising revenues. I’m not talking about the content either – made for mobile content has rarely been popular, and it seems that what consumers want is traditional content. So what am I talking about? It’s the experience, not the content, which has to be “made for mobile”. An example of a media type where mobile actually adds something new is social networking. The constantly updating nature of social networks along with the “always on, always with you” nature of the mobile phone is a match made in heaven. Strategy Analytics conducted a survey of MySpace users, and found that more users accessed MySpace Mobile daily than the main MySpace.com website. With such high levels of mobile usage, it seems remarkable that the most popular social networks (MySpace and facebook) have yet to monetize this traffic. Usage patterns were quite different – sessions were shorter and tended to be limited to status updates and comments (see Mobile Social Networking - Strategies for Success ). Mobile isn’t exactly converging with online, it’s diverging – mobile will become the main use case for social networks, and the usage will be different from how it has been in the online world. To make the most of this opportunity, social networks need to think about how mobile is different, not just simply try and replicate the desktop experience on mobile. Context is another way in which mobile is very different from online. If I’m accessing a website from my desktop, I am at my desk. If I’m accessing a website from my mobile, I could be anywhere, and the place I am at matters. Taking a simple example, if I’m in town and I’m searching for a movie, I almost certainly want cinema listings close to where I am located. I’m unlikely to want to go to the movie’s own website, or the IMDB page (typically these will be the top 2 search results). Location clearly matters, and this is why both Nokia and Google have been investing so heavily in maps products. Google has a huge head-start online, as not only are Google Maps available through Google's own web properties, they are available on many other websites. This has given Google a 44% share of the local search market (comScore, July 2008). In terms of handsets, Nokia has something of a lead as it pre-installs Ovi Maps on Nokia smartphones. In just 3 years, Nokia went from being non-existent in this market to being the world’s largest manufacturer of GPS devices. The location capabilities of phones add divergence from the fixed, online world – optimizing search results for my location is one way to really enhance the user experience, but it has the potential to add all sorts of richness to other media (see Nokia Strides Forward in Online Location and Navigation and Crowd Sourcing Model to Disrupt Premium Mobile Navigation Market) Take social networking, where as I discussed earlier, mobile is already driving usage. Nokia announced a deal with facebook, and facebook users with Ovi Maps on their device can now post their location. Users can tag photographs uploaded from phones with GPS coordinates. There’s really quite a number of ways in which the mobile experience can actually add something new and I really believe that these early examples are just the tip of the iceberg. Now that people can access the same content online and on mobile (and the iPhone has proven that) we already have convergence. What is going to be exciting to watch, and where we’ll see the really exciting innovation, is actually the divergence of mobile. - David MacQueen, Director, Wireless Media Strategies

 

As guest speakers David Kerr and I have just returned from the the inaugural Metaplaces location based services conference in San Jose 22nd-23rd September 2009. The event was attended by companies across the LBS value-chain. Among others, content providers such as Inrix, USA Today, WCities; Digital mapping companies Tele Atlas, Navteq, Waze, Open Streetmap; LBS application publishers uLocate, Wavemarket, Loopt, Google; LBS solution vendors Openwave, Sense Networks, 1020 Placecast, and Qualcomm. Notably, there was an absence of operators and advertisers, with only US carrier MetroPCS and Publicis representing respectively. The fact that so few carriers were in attendance underlines why they are losing their position in LBS, yes pun intended sadly, and suggests that LBS remains off their list of priorities.  

The three main standouts for this event for us were:

1. Waze: We were most impressed by the social digital mapping company Waze, who proclaimed it has recently expanded its application to Symbian and Windows Mobile platforms, and has just reached a critical mass of 160,000 users in Israel. Waze offers a free turn-by-turn (TBT) navigation application based on digitized census map data. This basic map is being constantly improved by a community of users whom allow their handsets to be tracked as they drive. Further user participation involves users actively annotating details to the map (e.g. notifying Waze of new roads, new one-way signs and changes to traffic flows, etc within the application). Making the process of user feedback as pain free as possible is clearly imperative to enhance participation levels. Overall, the model relies on an appealing trade off. Firstly, the user gets a free TBT application, and their incentive to improve the map and offer information is that their free TBT application will improve further in quality. Secondly, the benefit for Waze is rather than invest billions of dollars to collect map data, a la Nokia, its community is doing so on its behalf. According to Waze 1% of cellular users per market is sufficient. Armed with an improving digital map Waze can to some extent compete with TeleAtlas and Navteq in licensing of digital map data. Everyone is a winner, and although the quality of the maps are unlikely to compete with Tele Atlas or Navteq, the success of Wikipedia underlines the potential of user or community generated content.   
2. Uncertainty around monetization: We were looking forward hearing case studies about how companies had started to use location data to make money - the tag line for the event was 'How to Monetize Location Data & Services,' so can you blame us? Despite numerous innovative ideas about how location can be used, it is clear that most players in the LBS industry are still trying to figure out what business models will prevail, and many are pinning their hopes on advertising. There's little disputing that user location data can improve ad targeting if cleverly combined with other relevant data about the consumer. However, Sense Networks claims to have gone a step further. Its analytical tools allow it to categorize cellular users into classic (and not so classic) consumer segments based on tracking their movements over the course of a few months. This solution clearly addresses the problem that carriers have collecting data about their prepaid customer bases, and kills two birds with one stone. Firstly, carriers with large prepaid subscriber bases (in markets like Italy and many emerging markets) can learn more about their customers and adjust their own service marketing accordingly. Secondly, carriers with ambitions of becoming a smart pipe are in a stronger position to provide consumer targeting information to advertisers. Oh yes, as you'd expect, discussion about privacy implications was a key feature during the entire conference.      
3. US carrier bottleneck: US operators remain a bottle neck to location based service availability. While owners of smartphones integrated with GPS are able to use the rising number of location enabled applications that are available through vendor application stores, the majority of non-smartphone users are restricted to the services the carriers make available through their portals. To provide an example of how slowly US operators are moving regional US cellular operator MetroPCS is only just about to make location look ups available to third party applications that are distributed through its portal. It is yet to consider opening up user look ups on a wholesale basis. While US operators continue to guard the location data of their customers, carriers will continue to fall behind and LBS innovation will continue without them.

While innovation continues in the LBS sector, mainly outside the carrier channel, the unanswered question remains - where is the money?