Wireless Device Strategies

First to market each quarter with the most accurate and detailed data on handset strategies. The industry’s most timely, consistent and accurate tracking of device vendor KPI metrics, as well as handset market sales and shipment forecasts.

December 14, 2011 11:28 nmawston

Strategy Analytics forecasts worldwide HTML5 phone sales will surge from 336 million units in 2011 to 1 billion units in 2013. HTML5 has quickly become a hyper-growth technology that will help smartphones, feature phones, tablets, notebooks, desktop PCs, televisions and vehicles to converge through cloud services.

We forecast worldwide HTML5 phone sales to hit 1 billion units per year in 2013. Growth for HTML5 phones is being driven by robust demand from multiple hardware vendors and software developers in North America, Europe and Asia who want to develop rich media services across multiple platforms, including companies like Adobe, Apple, Google and Microsoft. We define an HTML5 phone as a mobile handset with partial or full support for HTML5 technology in the browser, such as the Apple iPhone 4S.

We believe HTML5 will help smartphones, feature phones, tablets, notebooks, desktop PCs, televisions and vehicles to converge in the future. HTML5 will be a pivotal technology in the growth of a multi-screen, 4G LTE cloud that is emerging for mobile operators, device makers, car manufacturers, component vendors and Web app developers. With its potential to transcend some of the barriers faced by native apps, such as cross-platform usability, HTML5 is a market that no mobile stakeholder can afford to ignore.

However, despite surging growth of HTML5 phone sales, we caution that HTML5 is still a relatively immature technology. HTML5 currently has limited APIs and feature-sets to include compared with native apps on platforms such as Android or Apple iOS. It will require several years of further development and standards-setting before HTML5 can fully mature to reach its potential as a unified, multi-platform content-enabler.

The full report, Global HTML5 Handset Sales Forecast, is published by our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, details of which can be found at this link: http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=6901.

October 19, 2011 23:17 sbicheno

Apple reported its Q3 2011 numbers this week, for the July to September period. The iPad volumes were in-line with expectations, but its iPhone shipments were disappointing. Global iPhone shipments reached 17.1 million units in Q3 2011, growing only 21% from a year earlier. This compares with a huge 126% annual growth rate during the first half of 2011. Those contrasting ratios illustrate just how much Apple slowed down.

What caused the slowdown? 

First, we think many consumers and operators held off buying the iPhone 4 during September in anticipation of a new iPhone 4S in October. Second, waning economic confidence has capped demand for premium goods in some regions. And third, the Samsung Galaxy S2 superphone is on a roll and providing tougher competition.

Apple's guidance for Q4 2011 is that it will be a record iPhone and iPad quarter. Our forecasts agree. The iPhone 4 and iPad 2 are new products that will be heavily subsidized and wildly popular during the western holiday season.

So, Q3 was a temporary blip, and Q4 will see Apple roar back... But let's not forget that this is the second stumble under Apple's new management. We believe the iPhone 4S was a delayed launch and now Q3 iPhone shipments have underwhelmed. And if the Amazon Fire starts to chip away at the iPad 2 in November, Apple Inc. could quickly find itself in trouble.

- Scott Bicheno