Our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service's updated report -- BRIC Country Handset Revenues, ASPs & Price-Tier Forecasts: 2009 to 2017 -- forecasts four countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) to generate a combined 28% of global mobile phone industry revenues in 2013.
Global handset wholesale revenues will grow 16% in 2013, followed by total growth of 5% in the following five years through 2017. BRIC countries together will post an above-average growth rate during the forecasted timeframe. However, Brazil and China will start to see negative revenue growth by 2016 and 2017, driven by steadily declining wholesale average selling prices (ASP), while India will continue to see positive revenue growth rates during this timeframe. Russia will remain almost flat for the next five years through 2017.
Among the four countries, China will post the highest handset revenue growth rate in 2013, driven by surging handset prices, while India will surpass China to lead the growth wave from 2014 thanks to the steady expansion of the country's handset volumes.
The highest regional ASPs among the four countries will be found in China in 2013. The continued shift towards 3G smartphones will help China's handset ASPs to reach this peak in 2013, but the increased entry- and mid-tier smartphone mix, as well as softer feature phone prices, will drive it down from 2014 onwards. More analysis and forecasts can be downloaded by clients in this published report.