The new Jolla smartphone and Sailfish OS have been pre-released and created some global media coverage this week. Will Jolla and Sailfish take off or flop?

Our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service published a report on this a few months back and clients can read our analysis here.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, several hundred million mobile handsets will flow through "closed" operator channels worldwide during 2014 (e.g. Telefonica). Some regions are dominated by operator-led channels, while others are dominated by retailer channels (e.g. Africa). Notably, China is seeing significant changes in distribution flows at the moment. This published report, available to clients, forecasts global handset distribution flows for 6 major regions and 3 key countries from 2007 to 2017, including North America, Western Europe, Latin America, China and India. The forecasts can be used by handset vendors, vehicle makers, apps developers and others to identify the main regional channels where mobile phones are being sold, and whether operators or retailers are winning the distribution wars.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, the global installed base of all mobile phones will grow by +6% in 2014. Asia Pacific is the region with the largest installed base by some margin, while Western Europe has the highest population penetration. Countries with huge installed bases include China, United States, UK, Nigeria, India, Brazil and Russia. This extensive published report, available to clients, forecasts the worldwide mobile phone installed base by 6 major regions and 88 countries from 2002 to 2017. It forecasts handset population penetration and handset household penetration. The report is a valuable tool for content developers, car makers, component vendors, operators and other stakeholders to measure the world's installed base of mobile phones by size, growth and penetration.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, TD-SCDMA phone sales will grow a healthy +38% in China in 2013. The Chinese 3G cellphone market is growing several times faster than the global average. Attractive pricing of devices and helpful operator subsidies are pushing the market higher. This is giving solid growth opportunities to companies involved in the TD-SCDMA industry, such as ZTE, Huawei, Coolpad, Lenovo, and Spreadtrum. However, TD-LTE networks will soon arrive, and the shelf-life of TD-SCDMA is thus limited. This published report, available to clients, forecasts TD-SCDMA handset sales for 88 countries worldwide from 2008 to 2017, including China.

Global legitimate handset sales will reach 1.7 billion units in 2013. Asia Pacific will remain by far the world's largest region. The "big five" countries globally include China, India, United States, Brazil and Indonesia. Emerging markets are outgrowing developed markets. This report, Global Handset Sales Forecast for 88 Countries: 2002 to 2017, available to clients of our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS), forecasts global handset sales for 88 countries worldwide from 2002 to 2017. Almost every major country worldwide is covered, including United States, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and many others. This report can be used by operators, software developers, content developers, handset vendors, component makers, car manufacturers and other stakeholders to determine or prioritize the size and growth rate of the huge global mobile phone market.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, global Bluetooth headset revenue growth will be broadly flat in 2013. Lower pricing and growing competition from car-kits are among some of the challenges facing the industry. One bright spot can be found in the stereo headphones market, which we forecast to grow at an above-average rate of +23% in 2013, as model diversity improves, distribution expands, and prices become more affordable. Key players to watch in stereo Bluetooth include Plantronics, Monster, Nokia, Motorola, Jabra, Jaybird and others.

This published report, available to download by clients,  forecasts worldwide Bluetooth headset wholesale revenues and pricing for mono and stereo, in-box and aftermarket, by price-tier segment, from 2001 to 2017.

According to the latest research from our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, global mobile phone shipments grew a modest 2 percent annually to reach 1.6 billion units in 2012. Samsung was the star performer, accounting for 1 in 4 of all mobile phones shipped worldwide last year.

Ongoing macroeconomic challenges in mature markets like North America and Western Europe, tighter operator upgrade policies, and shifting consumer tastes were among the key reasons why global mobile phone shipments grew just 2 percent annually to reach 1.6 billion units in 2012. Fuelled by robust demand for its popular Galaxy models, Samsung was the star performer, shipping a record 396.5 million mobile phones worldwide and capturing 25 percent marketshare to solidify its first-place lead. However, Samsung’s total volumes for the year fell just short of the 400-million threshold.

Nokia’s global mobile phone shipments fell 20 percent from 417.1 million units in 2011 to 335.6 million in 2012. Nokia faced tough competition from Samsung in developing markets like China, while Apple and others ramped up the pressure in developed regions such as Western Europe. Nokia’s dual-SIM feature phones, Asha touchphones and Lumia handsets have been performing well, but this was not enough to offset a slump in demand for the company’s aging Symbian smartphone platform last year.

Apple shipped a record 135.8 million mobile phones worldwide in 2012. Apple delivered 46 percent annual growth last year, which was bolstered by solid demand in North America and Asia. Apple’s launch of the iPhone 5 in Q4 2012 was a success as volumes ramped up in dozens of countries worldwide, but negative media coverage of the model’s new integrated maps service and supply chain challenges cast a slight shadow over the launch.

ZTE captured 5 percent share of the global mobile phone market in 2012, as its shipments fell minus 8 percent from 2011, partly because of heightened competition in core markets like China and Western Europe from rivals such as Coolpad and Samsung.

The summary of the report is available to view here.

Exhibit 1: Global Mobile Phone Vendor Shipments and Market Share in Q4 2012  [1] 

1 Numbers are rounded. The Total in the data-table does not include grey phone shipments.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, South Korean vendors, Samsung and LG, dominate global phablet shipments today. The two companies are seeding the market with multiple large-screen phones over 5 inches (e.g. Samsung Galaxy Note 2). The emerging phablet category is valuable to display makers like Samsung Display, LG Display, Japan Display, Sharp, Chimei and AUO. How big will the phablet segment grow in 2013? How large is the installed base? Which brands are the leading phablet vendors? Which operating systems have the highest marketshare? This research note, available to clients, answers those questions and more.

According to new research from our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, wholesale (trade) prices of mobile phones will rise +10% in Brazil during 2013. Among the "big four" emerging markets -- Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC) -- Brazil will experience the fastest growth in average selling prices next year. Brazil's pricing will grow two times quicker than China's. What is driving the uplift? Three main reasons: 3G, subsidies, and GDP. The tide of 3G phones being shipped is rising at a healthy clip. Subsidies for postpaid users remain present at some major carriers. And Brazil's citizens are getting wealthier (despite a recent slowdown), meaning they can afford pricier models. More analysis and forecasts of revenues, prices, and price-bands for Brazil through 2017 can be viewed by clients here.

Analysts from our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service attended the recent 2011 Broadcom Analyst Day held in New York City, where the semiconductor firm highlighted its recent successes in the wireless chipset space and outlined a strategy for further growth.

Broadcom's major revenue growth driver so far has been the proliferation of its "combo chip" wireless connectivity solution, providing enabling technologies like Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, GPS, and NFC. The solution, Broadcom claims, gives them a typical ASP of US $6-8, which provides a healthy contribution thanks to Broadcom's strong marketshare. Moving forward, Broadcom is seeking revenue uplift from going after the combination baseband/applications processor/GPU market, which together with the wireless combo chip would yield to Broadcom a per-handset ASP of US$12-30. Indeed, Broadcom are already well on their way, and according to our Handset Component Technologies team, Broadcom broke into top-five smartphone AP chip supplier rankings during Q3 2011.

The first phase of Broadcom's long-term plan targets the low-end smartphone market, where Broadcom claims that its solution delivers better performance, dollar for dollar. In particular, Broadcom is targeting cost-sensitive Indian and Chinese microvendors, which are small individually but, according to our Wireless Device Strategies service, together represented about 1 in 10 handsets shipped worldwide during Q3 2011. Going after the low-end smartphone segment, we believe, is a wise decision. Indeed, according to our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service, more than half of all smartphones will be priced below US$200 wholesale globally in just a few years.

The second phase of Broadcom's long-term plan will be to target the emerging LTE market. Indeed, we expect well over 100 million LTE phones to be sold during the next two years. Coupled with the technology's significantly above-average ASPs, makes it an attractive market for Broadcom to target.

Ultimately, the success of Broadcom's long-term strategy depends on their ability to gain design wins with microvendors and megavendors alike. The recent success of the Broadcom-powered Samsung Galaxy Y is an early indicator that initial momentum is in the right direction.

Alex Spektor
Wireless Device Strategies