Our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service's freshly published report -- Global Handset Distribution Forecast: Offline vs. Online -- models mobile phone sales by channel.

We forecast the distribution of mobile phones through online retail channels will grow +27% worldwide in 2013. A steadily growing number of mobile phones will be sold through online channels over time, making this an increasingly important distribution channel for operators and retailers.

North America and Western Europe represent the highest online % during the forecast timeframe, while China is seeing significant changes in distribution flows at the moment, due to pioneering companies like Xiaomi, as well as emerging e-commerce players.

Online channels continue to gain a rising share of global mobile phone distribution flows, notably in developed regions where wide Internet access and access to financial credit support online purchasing behaviors. While operators are especially strong in online distribution channels in developed markets, they will find it more difficult to gain a similar presence in developing markets where third-party retail channels currently dominate. Operators are best positioned to establish a foothold in mobile phone distribution in developing markets, both online and offline, by partnering with handset suppliers and focusing on upcoming high-value 4G postpaid customer segments.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, NFC phones are reaching a tipping point this year and global volumes will more than double in 2013. Most new LTE handsets will launch with NFC in the future, led by key players such as Samsung, Blackberry, Android, Microsoft and Nokia. More analysis can be downloaded by clients here.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, Motorola's worldwide mobile phone shipments fell -52% annually in Q1 2013. Since Google acquired Motorola in Q3 2011, this grandfather of the cellphone industry has failed to post either a quarterly profit or a single quarterly increase in shipments, something only a fundamental overhaul of its handset development strategy can reverse. We recommend Motorola turn to the Nexus sub-brand to inject some magic back into its portfolio. More analysis can be downloaded by clients here.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, LG's worldwide mobile phone shipments, revenues, profits and pricing all rose faster than the industry averages during the first quarter of 2013. Due to an improved 4G handset portfolio, LG is on the comeback trail. Operators and consumers are re-warming to LG. However, there are challenges. The US and China -- the world’s two most important markets -- remain major problem-children for the South Korean vendor. More analysis can be downloaded by clients here.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, NFC phones have reached a tipping point this year and global volumes will surge an impressive 138% in 2013. Most new LTE phones will launch with NFC in the future, led by key players such as Samsung, Blackberry, Sony, Android, GSMA, G&D and Visa. Paying, pairing and sharing are among the main use-cases for NFC. This published report, available to clients, contains forecasts for global NFC phone sales in 6 major regions, including North America, Western Europe, Asia Pacific, Central & Latin America, Central & Eastern Europe and Africa Middle East, from 2004 to 2017. The report also forecasts worldwide NFC handset sales by installed base and by device type, as well as analysis of the technology's drivers and adoption challenges.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, several hundred million mobile handsets will flow through "closed" operator channels worldwide during 2014 (e.g. Telefonica). Some regions are dominated by operator-led channels, while others are dominated by retailer channels (e.g. Africa). Notably, China is seeing significant changes in distribution flows at the moment. This published report, available to clients, forecasts global handset distribution flows for 6 major regions and 3 key countries from 2007 to 2017, including North America, Western Europe, Latin America, China and India. The forecasts can be used by handset vendors, vehicle makers, apps developers and others to identify the main regional channels where mobile phones are being sold, and whether operators or retailers are winning the distribution wars.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, the global installed base of all mobile phones will grow by +6% in 2014. Asia Pacific is the region with the largest installed base by some margin, while Western Europe has the highest population penetration. Countries with huge installed bases include China, United States, UK, Nigeria, India, Brazil and Russia. This extensive published report, available to clients, forecasts the worldwide mobile phone installed base by 6 major regions and 88 countries from 2002 to 2017. It forecasts handset population penetration and handset household penetration. The report is a valuable tool for content developers, car makers, component vendors, operators and other stakeholders to measure the world's installed base of mobile phones by size, growth and penetration.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, TD-SCDMA phone sales will grow a healthy +38% in China in 2013. The Chinese 3G cellphone market is growing several times faster than the global average. Attractive pricing of devices and helpful operator subsidies are pushing the market higher. This is giving solid growth opportunities to companies involved in the TD-SCDMA industry, such as ZTE, Huawei, Coolpad, Lenovo, and Spreadtrum. However, TD-LTE networks will soon arrive, and the shelf-life of TD-SCDMA is thus limited. This published report, available to clients, forecasts TD-SCDMA handset sales for 88 countries worldwide from 2008 to 2017, including China.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, Motorola's wholesale (trade) average selling price for its mobile phone division reached the highest level since 2000 in the third quarter of 2012. The vendor's ASP improved due to a higher proportion of 3G / 4G models, like the Razr Maxx.  What will be Motorolas main strategic challenges for 2013? More analysis can be downloaded by clients in this published report.

According to the latest research from our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, global mobile phone shipments grew a modest 1 percent annually to reach 362 million units in the second quarter of 2012. Samsung was the star performer during the quarter, capturing a record 26 percent marketshare.

Ongoing macroeconomic challenges in mature markets like North America and Western Europe, tighter operator upgrade policies, and shifting consumer tastes were among the key reasons why global mobile phone shipments grew just 1 percent annually to reach 362.0 million units in Q2 2012. Fuelled by record-high smartphone shipments, Samsung was the star performer, shipping 93.0 million handsets worldwide and capturing a record 26 percent marketshare to solidify its first-place lead.

Nokia’s global handset shipments continued to decline, albeit at a more moderate minus 5 percent annually, reaching 83.7 million units in Q2 2012. Nokia’s Windows Lumia family of smartphones has made a relatively encouraging start, but shipments are not yet high enough to offset rapidly fading volumes for its Symbian platform. Nokia’s feature phone volumes showed healthy, single-digit annual growth, bolstered by Nokia’s expanding portfolio of dual-SIM and Asha models for emerging markets.

Apple shipped 26.0 million handsets worldwide in Q2 2012. Apple delivered 28 percent annual growth, which was bolstered by solid demand in Asia. Apple’s next major task is to ensure that the upcoming release of its rumored iPhone 5 upgrade is a success. The hardware design, screen size and any integrated new technologies for the iPhone 5 will need to wow consumers and make the new model stand apart from competitors like Samsung’s Galaxy S3.

Other findings from the research include:

• ZTE captured 5 percent of global handset shipments as shipments slipped minus 16 percent annually, partly because of weakened demand in major markets of Western Europe and China;
• LG’s shipments nearly halved year-over-year to 13.1 million units, as its feature phone volumes continued to slip. However, its global smartphone shipments encouragingly improved on a sequential basis.

Exhibit 1: Global Handset Vendor Shipments and Market Share in Q2 2012