According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, mobile phone wholesale (trade) revenues in India will grow by 17% in 2014. This is faster than the global average. Solid mobile phone volumes and rising wholesale prices due to a 3G boom will drive revenues higher.  More analysis and forecasts can be viewed by clients here. 

Our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service's freshly published report -- Global Handset Distribution Forecast: Offline vs. Online -- models mobile phone sales by channel.

We forecast the distribution of mobile phones through online retail channels will grow +27% worldwide in 2013. A steadily growing number of mobile phones will be sold through online channels over time, making this an increasingly important distribution channel for operators and retailers.

North America and Western Europe represent the highest online % during the forecast timeframe, while China is seeing significant changes in distribution flows at the moment, due to pioneering companies like Xiaomi, as well as emerging e-commerce players.

Online channels continue to gain a rising share of global mobile phone distribution flows, notably in developed regions where wide Internet access and access to financial credit support online purchasing behaviors. While operators are especially strong in online distribution channels in developed markets, they will find it more difficult to gain a similar presence in developing markets where third-party retail channels currently dominate. Operators are best positioned to establish a foothold in mobile phone distribution in developing markets, both online and offline, by partnering with handset suppliers and focusing on upcoming high-value 4G postpaid customer segments.

This week, unconfirmed rumors resurfaced that Lenovo of China may be interested in merging its smartphone division with NEC Casio of Japan in H2 2013. Lenovo has been running a separate venture with NEC in the PC business since 2011.

According to our Country Share Tracker (CST) service, NEC Casio performed well in the Japanese mobile phone market during the early-2000s, but it has drifted into the mid-table rankings this year in both local handset and smartphone market share due to mixed products, slow rollouts and suboptimal distribution.

By contrast, Lenovo is putting in the utmost efforts trying to increase its market presence in smartphones, based partly on its market penetration of the PC industry, which resulted in Lenovo taking 6th place in our global smartphone rankings during Q1 2013. Lenovo is doing particularly well in its home smartphone market of China, where it is an established top-5 player.

The creation of a joint venture with NEC Casio could give Lenovo a greater foothold in the Japanese smartphone market. Lenovo will be targeting Japan because it will be the world's 4th biggest country by volume in 2014. If Lenovo could gain better traction in Japan through a JV with NEC Casio, it would pose a competitive threat to Fujitsu, Sharp, Sony, Kyocera, Apple, Samsung and others. Combining Lenovo's hunger for growth with NEC's high-end product experience could prove a solid combination.

However, it remains to be seen whether Japanese consumers or operators would warm to such an ambitious Chinese entrant -- especially given ongoing political tensions between the two countries. For these reasons, we believe a Lenovo-NEC-Casio merger, full or partial, if it happened, would be achievable, but any JV would probably struggle to move beyond niche status at home in Japan.

Three recent television interviews, each about 5 minutes in length, from Neil Mawston and Neil Shah in our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) research service:

1. Wall Street Journal (WSJ) TV: What is Google and Android's Outlook?:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324715704578483542256150334.html


2. China Central Television (CCTV): Nokia, Blackberry and Smartphone Trends:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CGzEWkRJ4Q


3. Huawei TV Interview: What is the Outlook for the Chinese Giant in Mobile Devices?:
https://ubm.box.com/s/cp57ebmtjmoa8fv3kkre

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, NFC phones are reaching a tipping point this year and global volumes will more than double in 2013. Most new LTE handsets will launch with NFC in the future, led by key players such as Samsung, Blackberry, Android, Microsoft and Nokia. More analysis can be downloaded by clients here.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, Motorola's worldwide mobile phone shipments fell -52% annually in Q1 2013. Since Google acquired Motorola in Q3 2011, this grandfather of the cellphone industry has failed to post either a quarterly profit or a single quarterly increase in shipments, something only a fundamental overhaul of its handset development strategy can reverse. We recommend Motorola turn to the Nexus sub-brand to inject some magic back into its portfolio. More analysis can be downloaded by clients here.

According to our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, LG's worldwide mobile phone shipments, revenues, profits and pricing all rose faster than the industry averages during the first quarter of 2013. Due to an improved 4G handset portfolio, LG is on the comeback trail. Operators and consumers are re-warming to LG. However, there are challenges. The US and China -- the world’s two most important markets -- remain major problem-children for the South Korean vendor. More analysis can be downloaded by clients here.

Boston, MA - April 25, 2013 – According to the latest research from Strategy Analytics, global mobile phone shipments dipped minus 1 percent annually to reach 373 million units in Q1 2013. Samsung was the star performer, capturing a record 29 percent share of all mobile phones shipped worldwide.

Neil Shah, Senior Analyst at Strategy Analytics, said, “Ongoing macroeconomic challenges in Asia, Europe and North America, relatively tighter operator upgrade policies for 3G phones, and slowing volumes of 2G feature phones were among the key reasons why global mobile phone shipments dipped minus 1 percent annually to reach 372.7 million units in Q1 2013. Fuelled by robust demand for its popular Galaxy portfolio, Samsung was the star performer, shipping 106.6 million mobile phones worldwide and capturing a record 29 percent marketshare to solidify its first-place lead.”

Neil Mawston, Executive Director at Strategy Analytics, added, “Nokia’s global mobile phone shipments fell 25 percent from 82.7 million units in Q1 2012 to 61.9 million in Q1 2013. Weak Symbian smartphone volumes and lackluster feature phone demand caused Nokia’s shrinkage. Nonetheless, Nokia remains the world’s second largest mobile phone vendor by volume, and if it can expand aggressively its fast-growing Lumia and Asha ranges this year, then there is still potential for Nokia’s position to stabilize or recover.”

Woody Oh, Senior Analyst at Strategy Analytics, added, “Apple grew just 7 percent annually and shipped 37.4 million iPhones worldwide in Q1 2013. Apple’s global mobile phone marketshare is approaching a peak. Apple will need to launch new models, or partner with additional major carriers like China Mobile, if it wants to expand significantly beyond its current ceiling of 10 percent global volume share.”

Other findings from the research include:

• LG held fourth position with 4 percent share of the global mobile phone market. LG has been ramping up its LTE 4G shipments, with popular models from the Optimus range, and this helped LG to grow at an above-average rate of 18 percent annually in the quarter;
• ZTE delivered 4 percent share of the global mobile phone market in Q1 2013, its lowest level for almost three years. ZTE is experiencing heightened competition in core markets like China and Western Europe from rivals such as Coolpad and Samsung.  

Exhibit 1: Global Mobile Phone Vendor Shipments and Market Share in Q1 2013  [1]

The full report, Global Handset Shipments Reach 373 Million Units in Q1 2013, is published by the Strategy Analytics Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, details of which can be found here: http://tinyurl.com/cr7fhmb.  

About Strategy Analytics:

Strategy Analytics is a global, independent research and consulting firm. The company is headquartered in Boston, USA, with offices in the UK, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, India and China. Visit www.strategyanalytics.com for more information. 

Americas Contact:

Neil Shah / +1 617 614 0727 / NShah@strategyanalytics.com             

Europe Contact

Neil Mawston / +44 1908 423 628 / NMawston@strategyanalytics.com  

Asia Contact:

Woody Oh / +44 1908 423 665 / WOh@strategyanalytics.com

According to our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service, Ubuntu is preparing to enter the global smartphone market with its own platform, called "Ubuntu for Phone", during the next year. Ubuntu demonstrated its beta version of the operating system during CES and MWC 2013 and is aiming to produce an Ubuntu-powered smartphone some time in late-2013 or early-2014. What opportunities and challenges will the Ubuntu phone have when it finally hits the market? What volume can Ubuntu expect to ship worldwide? Which device makers will support this new platform, and will it pose a significant threat to the two influential platform giants: Android and Apple iOS? The full report is published and available to clients here.

Our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) team is proud to attend Huawei's 10th Global Analyst Summit between Tuesday 23rd to Thursday 25th April, 2013. Around 500 analysts and journalists are attending the event at a hotel in Shenzhen, China, near Hong Kong. Just 20 people attended the first Summit a decade ago.

Huawei has been outlining its strategy for mobile devices, enterprises and networks in 2013 / 2014. These are three of our top findings from Day One (Tuesday):

1. Brand is king for Huawei. The Make It Possible (MIP) campaign, which aims to make the brand more emotive, is being ramped up across 30+ countries (e.g. UK);

2. Huawei Ascend W1, the vendor's first WP8 smartphone, was demoed. Its pricing is competitive, at circa US$120 wholesale worldwide in H1 2013. Usability is typical of a mid-range device -- good, but not great (e.g. mixed touchscreen responsiveness);

3. NFC will play an important role in Huawei's smartphone and tablet strategy for the next two years.

More analysis from Day Two to follow on Wednesday.