Wireless Device Strategies

First to market each quarter with the most accurate and detailed data on handset strategies. The industry’s most timely, consistent and accurate tracking of device vendor KPI metrics, as well as handset market sales and shipment forecasts.

December 14, 2011 11:28 nmawston

Strategy Analytics forecasts worldwide HTML5 phone sales will surge from 336 million units in 2011 to 1 billion units in 2013. HTML5 has quickly become a hyper-growth technology that will help smartphones, feature phones, tablets, notebooks, desktop PCs, televisions and vehicles to converge through cloud services.

We forecast worldwide HTML5 phone sales to hit 1 billion units per year in 2013. Growth for HTML5 phones is being driven by robust demand from multiple hardware vendors and software developers in North America, Europe and Asia who want to develop rich media services across multiple platforms, including companies like Adobe, Apple, Google and Microsoft. We define an HTML5 phone as a mobile handset with partial or full support for HTML5 technology in the browser, such as the Apple iPhone 4S.

We believe HTML5 will help smartphones, feature phones, tablets, notebooks, desktop PCs, televisions and vehicles to converge in the future. HTML5 will be a pivotal technology in the growth of a multi-screen, 4G LTE cloud that is emerging for mobile operators, device makers, car manufacturers, component vendors and Web app developers. With its potential to transcend some of the barriers faced by native apps, such as cross-platform usability, HTML5 is a market that no mobile stakeholder can afford to ignore.

However, despite surging growth of HTML5 phone sales, we caution that HTML5 is still a relatively immature technology. HTML5 currently has limited APIs and feature-sets to include compared with native apps on platforms such as Android or Apple iOS. It will require several years of further development and standards-setting before HTML5 can fully mature to reach its potential as a unified, multi-platform content-enabler.

The full report, Global HTML5 Handset Sales Forecast, is published by our Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service, details of which can be found at this link: http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=6901.


July 20, 2011 19:00 Neil Shah

The last 14 months have been eventful and exciting especially in mobile space as smartphones have been registering stupendous growth. This development has not only lead to smartphone marketshare, valueshare and mindshare battles but have also led to astounding volume and value growth for some smartphone specialists whereas some handset industry incumbents have struggled and are trying to catch up in line with market growth rate.

In this highly competitive environment we are witnessing all possible growth, hype, product cycle and consumer interest trends and innovation not only at the vendor-hardware-product portfolio (ex: Nokia vs. Apple) level but also at software platforms (Android vs. iOS vs. Symbian, etc), attached enabling technologies (ex: NFC, WiFi, HDMI, etc.) and services (ex: Music, Video or Apps) levels. The net-effect when all these components fit together well lead to a great product and experience. Thus to drive this innovation, these players are competing in building their Intellectual Property portfolio in mobile hardware and software space. However, they are not only building IP portfolio to foster innovation but also intend to protect it and at the same time build a steady stream of revenues from IP licensing.

This trend has also led to the recent battles for external patent acquisitions. For example: RIM, Apple, Microsoft, Sony and Google competed recently to bid for 6000+ Nortel’s patents which were up for sale as well as the latest development of Google’s interest in acquiring InterDigital and its portfolio of 8800+ patents to gain competitive advantage in mobile space.

 

Over the same span of fourteen months we have also seen litigation pile up surrounding these mobile handset patents with some winners, some losers and some still hanging and fighting on. Some of the recent patent battles pertaining to Android is worth noting because of the tremendous growth Android has achieved in the same time-frame. Android being open-source and perceived to be low-cost has become one of the primary platforms for many device vendors as well as operators, developers and other players across different verticals dedicating full resources to develop a product attached to the Android ecosystem.

This has hindered the growth and revenue generating prospects of many potential licensable and other open platforms from Microsoft to MeeGo. However, the “openness” of the Google innovation adopted by different device vendors has been challenged by other players in mobile ecosystem such as Microsoft and Oracle which owns a large pool of patents in mobile software space which might have been infringed or not paid for in the developed Android product that delivers the complete smartphone experience. Thus, these series of lawsuits filed by the key players in the mobile ecosystem will not only lead to bump up in product development or manufacturing costs for the vendors delivering Android products but also puts the “low-cost” nature and “openness benefits model” into jeopardy as this cost is transferred either to the next stakeholder in the value chain which may or may not absorb this increment and in the end might pass on to the end-consumer.

In addition to losing the cost advantage in long run, the multiple flavors of "open" Android (with IP owned by different vendors) may create chaos and incompatibility and ironically the "closed" OS may exceed on the innovation curve in integrating all these key components and comparatively provide a superior experience. This ongoing IP battle shall thus affect every stakeholder in the mobile ecosystem.

The detailed implications of these ongoing IP battles can be found in the following latest Wireless Device Strategies Insight:

IPR Wars: Microsoft and Oracle Seeking to Push Up the Cost of Android

 

 


December 22, 2010 16:12 bjoy
Nokia has a healthy working relationship with Microsoft, and the partnership has been growing over the past few years. Recent initiatives include:
  • Microsoft Office Mobile Suite for Symbian.
  • Microsoft Sliverlight for Symbian.
  • The Nokia Booklet, a 3G netbook based on Windows 7.
On the organization front, Stephen Elop, a Microsoft veteran, took over the helms at Nokia earlier this year, bringing both companies closer than ever. While Sliverlight, Microsoft Office, and Windows 7 netbook initiatives are all signs of a healthy partnership, embracing the WP7 platform in its totality takes the relationship to the next level. Shifting the building blocks of your device/software/service ecosystem in favor of third parties is no small decision and will have effect on your intangible sub-brand assets such as Ovi. And that exactly is the rumor from this week, that Nokia will launch WP7 devices in 2011. While we have no official version of the story, it would be interesting to assess the impact of such a partnership in the market. On the positive side, Nokia’s industrial design, distribution and supply chain process are among the best in the industry. WP7 will gain a strong partner in Nokia to bring the best-in-class devices among Windows Phone series. But how much of an impact it will have on Nokia’s platform portfolio, positioning and regional priorities? Where WP7 sits in Nokia’s portfolio?                                        Given the base set of high-end hardware requirements for WP7, the Nokia WP7 device will be positioned in the same premium space occupied by the MeeGo platform. Will Nokia abandon the MeeGo platform in favor of WP7? Or are they going to co-exist, with WP7 focusing on the prosumer and business segments along the same lines of the S60 E-Series? Will there be any major shift in regional platform trends? USA: With an estimated 6% marketshare in 2010 (nearly all basic and featurephones), Nokia has been steadily losing marketshare and carrier shelf space in the US. The partnership is unlikely to change the competitive landscape in the US market, where Apple, HTC, Motorola and Samsung lead the operator shelves. WP7 LTE phones in H2 2011 / H1 2012 might be a potential option for Nokia to make inroads in the US. Western Europe: Microsoft will find more acceptance in carrier channels through Nokia in Western Europe. But beyond the “foot in the  door” strategy, the partnership will have to do little with the success of the platform. In emerging markets, where Nokia has the broadest reach in mid-tier smartphones, the WP7 will be not be the obvious choice for the cost sensitive segments. We believe Nokia will continue to rely on the S60 platform in the mid-tier smartphone segment. Overall, while the idea of a Nokia WP7 device looks like a big win for Microsoft, it’s unlikely to change the prospects of Nokia or WP7 in the smartphone department. Nevertheless, Nokia needs to raise its profile in the US, and this would be a step in the right direction, but it will need step-changes in distribution and subsidies. But for the most part, it’s going to be just another partnership for Microsoft and Nokia – you’re only as strong as your weakest link. - Bonny Joy

September 23, 2010 22:09 David Kerr

September 23, 2010

While there has understandably been a lot of attention given to consumer apps post iPhone and the plethora of application stores that have emerged, business mobility and enterprise mobility offer huge potential from horizontal to vertical applications and from smartphones to iPads and tablets to superphones.

In both NA and W. Europe, business customers account for under 30% of users but are the dominant streams of both revenue and profits for operators. On the device side, premium priced models from RIM, Nokia, and Microsoft Mobile licensees as well as the iPhone have long been key drivers of profits in a market where low single digit margins are the norm.  The explosion of smartphone choices has led to the battle ground moving beyond the corner office, to other executive and now increasingly the midlevel manager.

With a new range of devices competing for space in the corporate market, the issue of corporate versus individual liable has become an increasing priority for IT decision makers. Add on the complexity of managing an expanding list of OS (Android, iPhone, Windows Mobile, Symbian, Palm, MeeGo, Bada from Samsung) and the growing importance of mobile portable devices with access behind the firewall and one can already feel a corporate migraine forming…. And that’s before we even discuss device management, mobility policy, device retirement etc. etc.

I am looking forward to CTIA Fall (San Francisco October 5-7) and in particular to the Enterprise Mobility Boot Camp moderated by Philippe Winthrop of the Enterprise Mobility Foundation. The boot camp spread over two days will address many of the issue listed above with our own Andy Brown featured in an analyst roundtable on October 6th.  I look forward to meeting you there. Don’t hesitate to contact Philippe for passes to this the deep dive enterprise mobility event.

David Kerr

David Kerr
Snr. VP - Global Wireless Practice
Tel: +1 617 614 0720
Mob: +1 262 271 8974


July 6, 2010 15:07 nmawston

 

Steve Ballmer and Microsoft have shut down the Kin social phone project, due to weak sales. An understandable decision; we estimate the Kin captured less than 0.1% of the US handset market in Q2 2010. At least 8 major reasons caused its downfall:

1. Clumsy sub-branding with "Kin";
2. An unattractive handset formfactor that did not wow young users;
3. An unexciting set of features and consumer media;
4. Suboptimal finger-based touchscreen user-experience;
5. Poor marketing of its automated cloud-storage backup service;
6. Mixed integration of the UNIX-Java Danger acquisition;
7. Weak reception from US developers, who couldn’t run downloadable apps or use Flash;
8. High handset and data-plan costs at Verizon Wireless.

This is a long list of failure points. The Kin joins several mobile and portable product flops from Microsoft, such as Courier, Zune and Pocket PC. Will Microsoft and its handset partners learn the lessons of the Kin for Windows Phone 7 in 2011? They will need to, as Microsoft's global smartphone OS marketshare is near a record low.

Reasons 2, 3 and 4 should be Microsoft's and its device partners' priorities. Good-looking touch-smartphones with fun consumer media services and a slick UX will attract developers and persuade tier-1 US carriers to throw subsidies in their direction. Add in Reason 5, the automated cloud backup for data, which was one of the Kin's few differentiators, and Microsoft's prospects will look brighter. And if they could bring the popular Xbox sub-brand and services to the table, then Microsoft's prospects may look even brighter still.

But Microsoft will have to move with urgency, because rivals like Apple, Android and MeeGo are not standing still. If Microsoft struggles to deliver in any way on WP7 in 2011, then I believe it will eventually have to buy its way into the mobile market. Smartphones will soon outsell PCs and mobile is too big a market for Microsoft to ignore. Who do you think Microsoft should buy in software or hardware? And why? Leave your suggestions in our Comments box.


February 17, 2010 03:02 bjoy
With the launch of Google Nexus, the term superphone started to make its rounds through the blogosphere. There is no single definition for the superphone, but in its simplest terms it stands for devices that are built to render Web 2.0 services to its full potential along with an array of sensors and hardware bells and whistles. So what’s next? Well, if you ask me, I would drop the “phone” from smartphones and superphones and coin a new category called the “Super-Smart”. In an increasingly connected world, platforms are not going to be confined within the realm of phones, regardless of whether or not they are smart or super. And this goes well beyond the Web 2.0 services or Application Store fronts, where Android and Apple have taken the lead. The next evolution in device platforms will leverage content, hardware and services from a full range of connected terminals and services, whether it is hardware, software or web based frameworks.  Two of the main announcements from MWC 2010 have embraced this approach: Windows Phone 7 Series wp-7-v1.bmp The new platform is a huge leap from the previous Windows Mobile versions. Microsoft has reengineered the platform with an intuitive user experience, but what really stands out is the fact that Microsoft has put serious efforts into tying all their consumer brands and services through the mobile platform – some of which have been long ignored in the mobile context, such as the Xbox and Zune services. At least in theory, the Windows Phone 7 series have great assets in touching many aspects of the consumer life: Xbox (entertainment), Zune (media), Windows 7 (computing), Bing (Internet) and Sync (Auto). On the flip side, the biggest challenge for Microsoft in the near to medium term is passing the form factor/emotional appeal of the device, a huge task for its OEM partners to overcome. Intel and Nokia team up to form MeeGo meego-v1.bmp Intel and Nokia have merged their Linux based Moblin and Maemo platforms to form “MeeGo”. In theory, the partnership between the mobile and computing giants is aimed at facilitating a development ecosystem that spans across media, connected homes, and in-vehicle use cases through the MeeGo framework. To begin with, Maemo had some success in showcasing its potential with the Nokia N900, while Intel’s Moblin has been a non-starter without any commercial launches. The new MeeGo platform is a step in the right direction by pooling the resources to build a compelling platform ecosystem, but it is late to the party. But it is clear that Nokia is making a commitment to this “super smart” device class, which is in itself affirmation of this emerging product class. As it has been in the past, the winners in this expanding ecosystem will not be counted by the assets or potential it offers, but how effectively they can turn the endless possibilities to a few realities – and for now Apple and Android ecosystem is well ahead of Windows Phone 7 and the MeeGo platforms. But one thing is sure – the future of platforms is beyond super or smart phones, and the suppliers that fail to embrace this approach will soon be irrelevant. - Bonny Joy