There has been intense speculation in the global media this week that Nokia will launch its first Lumia tablet with a Microsoft operating system at Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona, Spain, between February 25th to 28th, 2013.

Following extensive channel checks by our Tablet & Touchscreen Strategies (TTS) service, we understand Nokia will not unveil a tablet with a Microsoft operating system at this year's Mobile World Congress (MWC).

We believe Nokia's strategy will be "smartphones first" for MWC this year.

And rightly so. Nokia will want to expand its Lumia smartphone range and solidify its growing leadership of the global WP8 market. 

Tablet fans will need to be a little more patient!

According to the latest research from our Tablet & Touchscreen Strategies (TTS) service, global tablet shipments reached 25 million units in the third quarter of 2012. Apple iOS slipped to 57 percent global market share, allowing Android to capture a record 41 percent share.

Peter King, Director at Strategy Analytics, said, “Global tablet shipments reached 24.7 million units in Q3 2012, rising a sluggish 43 percent from 17.2 million in Q3 2011. Demand for tablets slowed due to ongoing economic uncertainty and consumers holding off purchases in anticipation of multiple new models, like the iPad Mini, during the upcoming Q4 holiday season. Apple shipped a disappointing 14.0 million iPads worldwide and captured 57 percent share in the third quarter of 2012, dipping from 64 percent a year ago. Apple’s slowdown allowed the Android community to make gains and Android’s global share of the tablet market now stands at a record 41 percent.”

Neil Mawston, Executive Director at Strategy Analytics, added, “Android captured a record 41 percent share of global tablet shipments in Q3 2012, jumping from 29 percent a year earlier. Global Android tablet shipments doubled annually to 10.2 million units. No single Android vendor comes close to Apple in volume terms at the moment, but the collective weight of dozens of hardware partners, such as Asus, Samsung and Nook, is helping Google’s Android platform to register a growing presence in tablets.”

Other findings from the research include:

• Global tablet shipments grew just 43 percent annually in Q3 2012, compared with 289 percent annually in Q2 2011. This was the weakest growth rate since the modern tablet industry began in Q2 2010;
• Microsoft captured a niche 2 percent global tablet share in Q3 2012. The imminent release of the new Windows 8 operating system will likely drive Microsoft tablet volumes higher during the Q4 2012 holiday season.

Exhibit 1: Global Tablet Operating System Shipments and Market Share in Q3 2012 [1]

[1] Shipments refer to sell-in. Numbers are rounded. The definition of tablet does not include e-book readers.

I don’t often refer to competitors’ reports as the analyst community generally likes to maintain a friendly distance. But Canalys’ announcement that tablets should be counted as PCs pretty much forces a reaction.

Canalys appears to be taking a technology-based approach to segmentation. So the fact that tablets have fast processors, can run productivity applications, offer email, and can access the internet, puts them in the same category as PCs, which also do these things. The absence of a keyboard, and the presence of a touch screen, are seen merely as customer options, just as one might specify a blu-ray disc drive or extra memory.

Canalys concludes that the “PC” market is therefore doing extremely well at the moment, largely because of the success of the tablet category.

Segmentation arguments are one of the many joys of industry analysis. Lines are invariably blurred, definitions hazy and perspectives inevitably conflicting. Market forecast buyers must always ensure they understand what is and is not included in any given segment, as this is often a key reason for variations in market estimates from one source to another.

But in spite of these challenges, Canalys seems to be stretching things just a little too far on this occasion. If we want to count the market for “computing devices”, fair enough. Let’s bundle in desktops, notebooks, netbooks, tablets, MIDs, smartphones, and a fair few TV set-top boxes and other devices as well while we are at it. They all offer a similar combination of technical functions, though each is clearly better suited to some more than others.

However precise we try to be about technology or functional definitions, sooner or later, we also have to consider user perceptions. If it surfs like a tablet, plays games like a tablet, and stimulates envy like a tablet, it probably is a tablet. And no amount of ivory tower contemplation will persuade Apple’s iPad customers they have bought a “PC”, however much Microsoft and Intel might wish they had.

Good luck with this one, my friends - you are going to need it.

David Mercer

Client Reading: Global Tablet Sales Forecast by Country