November 27, 2008 23:11 dmercer
I attended the Westminster Media Forum Seminar in London this afternoon, entitled Pay TV – market prospects , competition and service to viewers. The conference took place somewhere deep in the bowels of the Local Government Association headquarters near the Houses of Parliament. The rising temperature reflected the growing intensity of the debate as the afternoon wore on, while the absence of a view through outside windows nicely reflected the fact that “Sky” was the only major player absent from the debate. The Forum assured us that the “gorilla” had been invited. My overall impression is that these sessions tend to veer too much towards the old “how do we reduce Sky’s power” debate, hence the reason for that company’s decision to decline invitations to speak. We were however treated to comments from expert participants from the regulatory and legal fields, as well as from Freeview, Freesat, BT Vision and Virgin Media Television. Kicking off the debate was Stephen Unger, Competition Policy Director at Ofcom, who summarised the current state of the two investigations currently relevant to pay TV in the UK market. These are 1. the submission from BT Vision, Setanta, Top Up TV and Virgin Media, and 2. the application from Arqiva and Sky to launch Picnic, a pay TV service on the DTT platform. Both investigations are still in progress, and after second consultations a number of preferred options are being considered. According to Unger, Ofcom “believes that Sky has an incentive to restrict supply to other retailers and other platforms, and there is evidence that Sky is acting on that incentive”. Ofcom’s preferred option is to propose a wholesale must offer obligation on Sky. In other words, Ofcom would regulate the prices at which Sky must offer its channels to other platforms. It would be necessary to determine how prices are set as well as certain non-price issues (for example, protecting against piracy). If this option is agreed, it will also be consulted upon, probably by Spring 2009. Later in the day, Jenine Hulsmann, a Partner at lawyers Clifford Chance, made one of the best contributions. She pointed out that competition law is not good at addressing pricing issues. In her opinion it would be “a very great challenge” for Ofcom to establish a pricing mechanism that is acceptable. She also made the point that there would inevitably be one, if not several, appeals once any decision was made, and that these appeals would lead to long delays in any implementation of Ofcom’s proposals. Hulsmann made one final recommendation for content owners who might have contracts with Sky: “Check your contracts for any clause that allows for Sky to renegotiate in case of a change in regulation.” Martin Coleman, a Partner at Norton Rose, observed another challenge facing Ofcom, concerning the definition of channels and their related content. If regulations are introduced relating to “sports” or “movies” “channels”, these must be very carefully defined in order to prevent changes that might circumvent regulations. In other words, a regulation that decides on the appropriate price for Sky Sports 1 showing Premiership football would be little use if Sky decided to remove that content from that channel and show it elsewhere. Ilse Howling, MD of Freeview, and Emma Scott of Freesat, each presented lots of research about the appeal of their respective “free-to-view” platforms. Maybe it was the constant repetition of the word “free” that got to me, but I couldn’t take my mind off the fact that no one had so far mentioned the fact that these “free” platforms would not have come into existence without the government-mandated annual licence fee, and would not be half as appealing without the BBC’s digital channels. So had any of this research addressed the issue of acceptance of or resistance to the licence fee? Apparently not… Emma Scott suggested that Freesat’s research had “never had any negative feedback about the licence fee”, which suggests to me that they had never asked the right questions. Howling at least admitted that the question of cost does come up in Freeview’s research, and consumers do raise the issue of the price of set-top boxes and/or aerial installations and upgrades. But there was no evidence that consumers related Freeview to the cost of the licence fee directly. These two debates – competition in pay TV, and the future of public service broadcasting – cannot be considered in isolation. Together they form one overriding question – “How should television be funded in the digital era?”. Any debate that focuses on a single funding issue is going to reach conclusions of limited value. Considering the bigger picture would achieve a more rounded perspective from all sides of the industry, and may even attract the attention of the absent gorilla. Client Reading: The Television and Movie Industry Explained: Where Does All the Money Go? Add to Technorati Favorites

November 25, 2008 14:11 dmercer
As the meeting invitations roll in, it's clear CES 2009 is going to be several notches down on the previous couple of years, in terms of visitor numbers and exhibitor presence. This CNET report sums up the situation nicely. Some companies, including major players like Cisco, are baulking at the on-site costs at the LVCC, and choosing instead to meet at hotels and other venues. And there has been a wave of hotel discounting in recent weeks. While general Vegas tourism is down, it is also clear there will be fewer convention visitors during early January than usual. Lower prices are great news for the rest of us - all we need now is a nice sunny 60-degree January. In contrast to the gloom elsewhere, meanwhile, German technology consumers seem to have forgotten the credit crunch. According to the GfU, sales of consumer electronics and communications products grew by 3.6% in the first 9 months of 2008 compared to the same period in 2007. The market has been kept alive by the TV sector, where revenues have risen a whopping 26.8%. Revenues in cameras, mobile phones and navigation devices, all once hot items, have declined. This is in line with the 2008 forecast I reported recently. As I discussed, German demand was influenced through the summer by major sporting events; the surge in TV sales would seem to confirm this. While the 9-month performance has been good, the last three months are as critical in Germany as they are in many other markets, so it seems premature to assume growth will continue at the same rate against a background of economic turmoil. For manufacturers' sake, I hope German consumers prove me wrong. Client Reading: IFA 2008: Internet and 3D Offer Hope During Europe's CE Recession Add to Technorati Favorites

November 24, 2008 17:11 dmercer
We recently completed our latest survey of broadband and digital TV customer satisfaction and churn. The first analysis concentrated on broadband in the US. Future reports will also cover digital TV and the major European markets. People often claim to be satisfied with what they already have. 76% of broadband subscribers in the US suggest they are very or somewhat satisfied with their broadband service. But when they are asked if they would be willing to switch, three in every four say they would do so, depending on the price and performance of an alternative service. So why do more people not switch broadband providers more often? There are many perceived barriers which inhibit customers taking this step, such as general inconvenience, the hassle of scheduling connection and installation, dealing with returning equipment and billing issues. Our survey found that the difficulty of scheduling a suitable time for connection and installation of a new service was one of the most significant barriers for many US broadband customers. The promise of a “four-hour slot”, it seems, is not enough to persuade customers to switch providers. They expect their service provider to turn up at an agreed appointment time, and if that promise can’t be made, they will prefer to avoid the inconvience altogether. As the broadband market matures (new customer growth is significantly down this year on 2007), growth for major players like Verizon, AT&T and Comcast will hinge on their ability to poach existing broadband customers from competitors. The companies that focus on improving the customer experience during switchover will go a long way towards increasing their subscriber base. Client Reading: Broadband Satisfaction and Customer Churn: US Survey Results 2H08 Add to Technorati Favorites

November 21, 2008 17:11 dmercer
Another sign that France continues to lead the world in emerging TV business models: the leading media and electronics retailer, FNAC, and French IPTV technology specialist Netgem have announced details of a new service called “Pack TV”. The set-top box comprises an HD-DTT DVR with the usual live pause and other recording functions, together with Internet access to video-on-demand movies. The VOD service was developed jointly by FNAC and Glowria, a Netgem subsidiary, which offers both disc (DVD/BD) mailing as well as online movies. FNAC has already been offering online movies for some time, downloaded to the PC. It even suggests internet users can watch them on their TV sets, but its instructions confirm this might not be a task for the faint-hearted. The Netgem solution is clearly intended to overcome these barriers and open up the online movie service to the TV watching public. The service will launch in early December. It will be priced at €149.90 when a 12-month subscription at €5.90/month is taken out; alternatively it is available at €259.90 without a subscription. The subscription fee covers access to the basic pay channels available on the French DTT (TNT) service as well as all the free-to-air channels. On-demand movies will be separately priced at upwards of €2.99. It’s worth considering the similarities between this service and a “managed” DTT/VOD service such as BT’s BT Vision, which also combines DTT with internet-delivered on-demand content. Apart from the range of content available, the functionalities appear to be quite similar. The difference in the FNAC case is that there is no broadband service provider taking a cut from the revenues. Instead, a leading electronics retailer is taking that role, and using its distribution and marketing power to reach the mass market. Customers need only have a DSL connection – their BSP may know nothing about it and will get no direct revenues from VOD usage. France’s broadband network is several laps ahead of the UK’s – average advertised broadband speeds in France are 17.6Mbps compared to 2.6Mbps in the UK. So while France’s market opens up to innovative web 2.0, “over-the-top” competitors, we should not expect anything as radical in the UK until access speeds can reliably support video to a similar degree. Client Reading: Web TV: Emerging Devices Bridge the PC-TV Chasm Add to Technorati Favorites

November 21, 2008 11:11 dmercer
...On Strategy Analytics' target, that is. We predicted global 2008 sales of 4.0 million units back in March, and that still seems a reasonable estimate. Some major industry players, however, seem to have been too optimistic and are now scaling back their plans. Sigma Designs is one of the leading suppliers of video processors for Blu-ray players. Sigma’s Edward McGregor has been quoted as saying: “Blu-ray has been slower than expected to catch on”, partly in defence of his company’s loss of market share to rivals Broadcom, NEC and others. It seems Sigma had been working on predictions of up to 6 million units and has now reduced these to 3-4 million. Companies often use this excuse, and take market projections that suit their needs at any given time. It’s an inevitable part of the forecasting game. That’s not to say we always get it right. As I’ve said previously forecasts are very rarely precisely accurate. But it is important to set a broadly correct expectation, and I would dispute that Blu-ray is not performing to expectations, as Sigma and many others now seem to be suggesting. As I’ve highlighted many times, just because Blu-ray defeated HD-DVD didn’t mean it was going to replace DVD overnight. It was always going to be a long haul for Blu-ray, and the dive in consumer confidence (the scale of which very few predicted a few months ago) is clearly not going to help in the near term. But while this holiday period is important for Blu-ray it’s by no means critical in the long term. This is a five-year transition and we are only in the very early stages. Client Reading: Blu-ray Disc Devices: Global Market Forecast Add to Technorati Favorites