Tunable antennas improve smartphone battery life and reduce dropped calls

Several popular smartphones shipped in 2011 with compact, integrated antenna tuners, the first of a wave of such tuners from Peregrine Semi, RFMD and others. We have been looking into the outlook for active antennas & tunable components in cellular phones by comparing the different suppliers and technical approaches and we are now convinced of an upbeat forecast of the market through 2017.

Mobile devices that support 4G, 3G and 2G in multiple bands have complex RF front-ends, with compromises in antenna performance that can degrade calls, as Apple learned last year.  Tunable components can reduce dropped calls and improve battery life, while simplifying the cellphone.

Significant new strategic avenues open for radio component vendors

Antennas with tunable impedance matching will bring success to some new entrants such as WiSpry and inevitably shake up the existing order among cellphone RF front-end component vendors.

The new ‘antenna tuner’ product category will emerge as an important piece of the cell phone RF front-end, and we expect antenna specialists including Ethertronics and Skycross, in combination with front-end component suppliers including Skyworks, RFMD, Avago Tech, TriQuint and Murata, to compete aggressively in this segment using GaAs, CMOS, RF MEMS and voltage-dependent dielectric variable capacitor technologies.

Stephen Entwistle

Client reading: The Strategy Analytics report, “Outlook for Active Antennas & Tunable Components in Cellular Phones”  reviews the prospects for tunable RF components, comparing the different approaches and suppliers, and provides an upbeat forecast of the market through 2017.

Microsoft announced at CES-2011 that its next generation Windows PC platform will run on ARM architectures. NVIDIA, Qualcomm and Texas Instruments were named as key ARM silicon partners. We think this is good news for stand-alone ARM applications processor vendors such as Texas Instruments (TI) and throws the company a lifeline at a time when the market is moving towards integrated solutions.

By our estimates, the market for stand-alone applications processors in smartphones contracted from 70 percent in 2007 to just under 30 percent in 2009. Vendors such as Qualcomm are driving the baseband-integrated applications processor market and these integrated processors are increasingly gaining acceptance in the smartphone market. The integrated approach is currently popular in the low-to-mid range smartphones but is gaining traction in the high-end as well lately.

Microsoft's decision to port the Windows PC platform to ARM architectures changes the market dynamics dramatically. However, it's too early to tell what impact it will have on Intel as Microsoft hasn't revealed any timeline for these new products. ARM hasn't yet revealed its 64-bit architecture and current generation ARM processors also cannot support graphics computing APIs such as OpenCL. It will take at least another 18-24 months for Microsoft to reengineer its platform for ARM architectures and to build a software ecosystem around it. This should give enough time for Intel to bring power-efficient processors to the market. Intel is expected to feature in Nokia's MeeGo smartphones and tablets in 2012 which we think would be a great psychological boost to counter ARM-based processor vendors.

The likely specs for Windows on ARM architectures are:

• CPU: Dual-core / Quad-core ARM Cortex-A9; GPU: ARM Mali-400 / Third-party GPU

• CPU: Multi-core ARM Cortex-A15; GPU: ARM Mali T-604 / Third-party GPU (Most likely configuration and leading chip vendors such as TI, NVIDIA and Samsung were already announced as licensees of Cortex-A15 cores)

• Custom ARM processor designed by Microsoft and its hardware partners

This move is a good news for NVIDIA, Qualcomm and TI as it opens up new opportunities. Qualcomm already has customer relationships with top PC vendors and is expected to leverage them to expand into the Windows PC ecosystem. This move equally helps the stand-alone applications processor vendors to revitalize their businesses and to compete for higher volume. Broadcom, ST-Ericsson, Samsung, Renesas, Marvell and Freescale could also potentially feature as future Microsoft's partners.

We believe diversified device and OS landscape favors chip vendors as they can avoid the risk of being sidelined by powerful vendors. With Microsoft's support, ARM chipset vendors can now look forward to new markets that were unavailable to them previously.

Mobile phone applications processors power today's smartphone apps and increasingly phones are promoted as packing "1GHz processors" or even "dual-cores".

Last week we published our smartphone applications processor market share data and by our estimates global applications processor revenue reached $1.84 billion in 1H 2010, up 60 percent over the same period the prior year, primarily thanks to the growth in smartphones. The increase in the smartphone market is real and it has been reflected in silicon vendors' revenues and shipments as many players are re-positioning themselves to tap into this growth. The battle between the baseband-integrated applications processor vendors and stand-alone applications processor vendors continues to fragment the market.

Here are some top-level insights from our quarterly smartphone applications processor market share tracker for 1H 2010:

• In just three years, the market for stand-alone apps processors has shrunk from around 72 percent of the total apps processor market to just 32 percent in unit terms in 1H 2010.

• Qualcomm led the overall smartphone applications processor market with 35 percent revenue share, thanks to its early-mover advantage in the Android ecosystem. Qualcomm's integrated applications processors, which combine advanced air interface technology and applications processing capability, are increasingly gaining acceptance in the smartphone market. Qualcomm's smartphone applications processor unit shipment share increased from just 3 percent in 2007 to 19 percent in 1H 2010.

• Texas Instruments (TI) led the market in unit terms with the help of its legacy Nokia relationship. TI ranked number two in the stand-alone applications processor category with 24 percent revenue share. We believe much of the TI's future growth depends on the traction for its OMAP4 series applications processors and it may prove difficult for the company if it fails to line up big customers for its OMAP4 series processors in 2011.

• Samsung's relationships with Apple and Samsung helped the company to reach number one in stand-alone category and number three overall in the smartphone apps processor market in revenue terms. Samsung is set to continue its momentum into 2011 with the help of Apple and Samsung.

• Marvell ranked number four in both revenue terms and unit shipment terms on the strength of its relationship with RIM. Marvell's ARMADA 618 / 628 high-performance processors are expected to be adopted by RIM for its smartphone and tablet products in 2011.

• Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, Samsung, Marvell, Renesas and ST-Ericsson together accounted for 98 percent of total smartphone applications processor unit shipments in 1H 2010.

Looking forward, we expect new players such as NVIDIA, Intel, Broadcom and MediaTek to attack the high-growth smartphone market with focused efforts in 2011. We also expect the stand-alone applications processor vendors to fight back with high-performance dual-core processors in 2011 which could potentially increase their value share in 2011.

- Sravan Kundojjala

Consolidation in the baseband market continued with Intel acquiring Infineon's wireless business on Monday for $1.4 billion. Infineon's takeover is the fourth high-profile announcement in the last two years. Previously NXP, Freescale and Texas Instruments announced their exits from the merchant baseband market. This signals that the entry barrier is now too high for new entrants and raises pressure on smaller players such as Marvell, Spreadtrum and Icera. Intel's acquisition of Infineon's wireless business leaves Qualcomm, MediaTek, ST-Ericsson, Intel, Broadcom and Renesas as long-term players in the cellular baseband market.

We analyzed this back in May when the original rumour of the Intel/Infineon wireless deal surfaced. Infineon's wireless business is definitely an attractive target for Intel as it gives immediate access to valuable IP and an established customer base. Infineon is a rising star in the W-CDMA baseband market and ranked number two in the W-CDMA baseband market behind Qualcomm (excluding Texas Instruments’ custom baseband business with Nokia). Infineon has so far focused on slim modems and has stayed away from developing ARM-based applications processors. So far Infineon’s niche strategy has paid off, but the time has come for the company to expand its portfolio by offering a wider range of processors to address smartphones, tablets and other connected consumer devices. Although 3G and smartphones are of most interest to Intel, the company is likely to keep Infineon’s 2G business as it provides scale which is crucial to play in the cellular baseband segment.

It will be another year or two before Intel's applications processors are smartphone-ready. Meanwhile, in the next 12 - 18 months Intel can bundle Infineon's 3G platform with all of its notebook and netbook chipsets and gain significant 3G share to undercut Qualcomm and ST-Ericsson's non-handset offerings. But both Qualcomm and ST-Ericsson appear to have a two year technology lead over Infineon in chipsets for HSPA+ and LTE; Infineon is expected to introduce its first HSPA+ chipset in 2011 and an LTE chipset in 2012. MediaTek’s grey handset chip business may come under pressure from Infineon in the future if Intel expands its field application engineering force in China. Likewise, Broadcom is expected to come under pressure from this deal but should survive with help from its other businesses such as connectivity and digital home. This acquisition will also likely affect stand-alone application processor vendors such as Texas Instruments and NVIDIA that currently lack their own 3G / 4G modems. But we believe that it will take another 4-5 years for Intel to integrate basebands into its Atom CPU, if at all.

Infineon's acquisition still doesn’t guarantee Intel's success in the wireless handset market and the company's ultimate success in this market hinges on how soon Intel can come up with power-efficient processors that can stand-up and compete against a host of ARM-based processor vendors. On a positive note, Intel appears to be moving ahead of its other chip competitors in the software area which positions it well against ARM-based processor vendors. The company’s strong software expertise could help it to gain some OEM mindshare. Intel’s uninspiring track record in the wireless market during the last decade suggests that the company has to execute flawlessly this time to make it successful and keep Infineon’s wireless business as independent as possible. Clients can read our eight page analysis of the Intel/Infineon deal here.

Intel is said to be in talks with Infineon to buy latter's wireless chip business unit. Of course this not the first time we heard about Infineon's wireless chip division rumors. Previously Samsung, NXP and ST Micro were also reported as potential buyers of Infineon's wireless chip business.

Previously Intel invested in the wireless handset chip business but divested it to Marvell. That time Intel was more focused on the application processor and was less focused on the baseband processor. So what's changed? Strategy Analytics believes that the growth in the mobile broadband is a key factor and Intel definitely needs a modem know-how to participate in this market. Intel is a key player in the WiMax market but lacks 3G and LTE baseband technology. Currently the company ships 3rd party modems in its Atom chipsets but in the long-term it would be beneficial to own modem technology to integrate it in its future Atom CPUs. Last year Intel acquired Freescale's France-based wireless operations and also licensed 3G / HSPA modem technology from Nokia.

Strategy Analytics believes that Infineon could be a good partner to companies looking for RF expertise and baseband customer relationships. Infineon's wireless business looks well settled after the company divested its Qimonda stake.

Here are some quick facts about Infineon's wireless business based on Strategy Analytics data.

* Infineon's wireless chip revenues represented close to 30% of its total revenues in calendar year 2009 and 25 percent in Q1-2010.

* Infineon's wireless chip products include basebands, RF transceivers, power management ICs, connectivity ICs (Bluetooth, GPS, and WLAN) and platform solutions.

* Infineon's baseband revenues represented close to 53% of its wireless chip revenues in 2009. * The company has baseband / RF customer relationships with almost all of the top-10 handset OEMs.

* Infineon ranked fourth with 11% unit shipment share in the $11.0 billion cellular baseband market in 2009.

* Infineon's wireless business has been profitable for the last four consecutive quarters. The company had just 2.5% operating margin in its wireless business in 2009.

* Despite its impressive baseband and RF product portfolio, the company currently lacks stand-alone application processors. It remains to be seen whether Infineon will go it alone or partner with Intel. We believe that it would cost $3-$5 billion for Intel to acquire Infineon's wireless business.

- Sravan Kundojjala

I was asked recently how many phones were HD-capable, and realised that the question is actually quite complex.

I should start with a definition for what I believe constitutes HD, as many handsets already claim some sort of High Defintion credentials, but very few actually deliver it...

- True HD, 1080p, is a 16:9 ratio screen with a resolution of 1920x1080 pixels and a frame rate of 60 frames per second (or 24 fps for Blu-ray players);

- 1080i is the same resolution, but the image is interlaced, effectively halving the frame rate;

- 720p is also 16:9, but with a resolution of 1280x720 pixels.

The highest resolution display on a handset at present is WVGA (800x480 pixels) and there are just under 200 handsets with that spec, the biggest being the HTC HD2 which has a very nice 4.3 inch screen, but WVGA is nowhere near big enough to be classed as HD.My take on HD is that we will see it on phones in certain functions: a)       Capture? Yes: The Samsung i8910 HD (also known (incorrectly) as the Omnia HD) was the first phone capable of capturing 720p HD video and the quality is immense. I think we will see many more phones in the near future being capable of capturing 720p or even 1080p HD;

b)      Playback on screen? No: The Samsung i8910 HD has a very impressive 3.7 inch, 640x360 pixel OLED screen which gives a fantastic representation of high quality (if not HD) video, but it’s not true HD playback on the screen. In fact it’s only nHD (ninth full 1080 HD) at 640x360 pixels. Converting the Samsung i8910’s specs into dots per inch gives a figure of 198dpi.  I would argue that the highest definition screen we will ever see on a phone is QHD (960 x 540 pixels) or at a real push 720HD (1280x720 pixels) which, on a 4-inch display, would result in 275dpi or 367dpi respectively. Putting a 1080p screen on a phone is a complete waste of time (and money) because the human eye cannot distinguish anything greater than about 300dpi;

c)       Playback off screen? Yes: We may see more usage of playing content from the phone onto a larger screen using the TV Out or mini HDMI capabilities of the phone, or maybe even using a built-in pico projector. Nokia has been a strong supporter of TV Out and we will certainly see many more phones in future with a mini HDMI port. As for pico projector phones, I’m not sure that they are going to appeal to the network operators because power consumption will be so poor that the phone will be dead after an hour or two, then there’s no revenue stream for the operators;

d)      Storage: This is where I think there is potential for HD. Using Moores Law, I estimate that in 10 years time the average phone will have 50GB internal memory and some high end phones will have around 1TB of NAND Flash memory, and probably for about the same price as about 32GB of NAND Flash today. What we will do with that memory is another matter. With 1TB you could store about 375 hours of full HD (about 180 movies) so perhaps we will all have our collection of HD movies on our phones ready for viewing when we’re on a business trip for example;

Battery life will certainly be affected by HD though, so we will probably see much bigger batteries (maybe 2000mAh) in handsets with HD capture or playback.

Finally, it's worth noting that several chipset companies have chips in, or close to, production capable of supporting HD capture including TI OMAP 3440 (12MP, 720p); NVIDIA Tegra APX (12MP, 720p); Broadcom 2727 (12MP, 720p); Qualcomm MSM8260 (16MP, 1080p); TI OMAP4 (20MP, 1080p), so it looks like HD capture and storage on phones will be a booming segment.

Stuart Robinson

Renesas has been trying to improve its global reach with its SH-Mobile G Series of application processors. The fourth generation SH-Mobile G processor, SH-Mobile G4, will support HSPA and is expected to be available in 2010. Renesas' SH-Mobile G series processors (integrating the FOMA baseband technology of NTT docomo) support OSs such as Symbian and Linux and are ARM-compatible, unlike the company's stand-alone apps processors. While Renesas is a prominent supplier in markets for apps processors, RF transceivers and power amplifiers, it is only a minor player in the cellular baseband processor market. Renesas doesn’t have its own baseband technology and has collaborated with the NTT docomo to design the SH-Mobile G Series chips.

Competition in the global W-CDMA chipset market is already high and tier-1 handset vendors already have established relationships with other leading chip suppliers. If Renesas can attain any high volume tier-1 global vendor for its SH-Mobile G basebands it could definitely help its long-term ambitions. But so far there are no publicly known SH-Mobile G baseband design-wins outside Japan and Korea.

In April 2009 Renesas announced merger plans with Japanese chip vendor NEC Electronics. Unlike Renesas, NEC Electronics has its own baseband technology and it remains to be seen how Renesas will leverage NEC’s baseband expertise. The planned merger with NEC Electronics is not expected to contribute much to Renesas’ global baseband presence given that NEC Electronics is also focused on the Japanese market. To read more about our thoughts on Renesas, see our recent profile on the company here.

Sravan Kundojjala