Global smartphone shipments surged +38% annually in Q4 2012. We estimate the top 10 smartphone families accounted for over two thirds of smartphones shipped worldwide during the quarter. Samsung and Apple top the charts, but Sony's Xperia, LG's Optimus and Huawei 's Ascend series are quietly gaining traction. This report, Global Smartphone Shipments by Family / Model: Q4 2012, available to the clients of our HCST (Handset Country Share Tracker) service, tracks the world's best-selling smartphone families and models by shipment volumes from Q1 2011 to Q4 2012. This report will give you the information on how many units of iPhone 4S, iPhone 5, Galaxy S3, Galaxy Note and other flagship models from smartphone vendors have been shipped on a quarterly basis for two years. In this regards, this report is a valuable tool for component makers, car manufacturers, content suppliers, mobile operators, device vendors and other stakeholders who want to identify and measure the world's most-popular smartphones by individual model.

Our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service tracked Coolpad ranked the 11^th largest smartphone vendor globally in 2012, with 2.6% marketshare. It grew smartphone volume by 108% YoY from 2011, indicating the Shenzhen-based Chinese vendor is ambitious to push into the top 10 club this year.

The company is on the right track to become a 3G smartphone specialist, with an encouraging breakthrough recently also in the North American 4G LTE market. Its first LTE phone at MetroPCS achieved an encouraging start last year.

However, how to further define and implement its overseas strategy, especially in North America and West Europe, remains the key for the rising Chinese brand. We would recommend Coolpad to:

- Launch a decent flagship model with a unified sub-brand (like Samsung Galaxy, Huawei Ascend does) globally;

- Initially target prepaid carriers / customers because prepaid segment is price-sensitive and accessible for Chinese brands;

- Prepare for the potential IPR risks associated with overseas expansion. Coolpad is reportedly have accumulated over 4000 handset related patents at this moment, however, it is still vulnerable to get involved into IPR war. We believe patent swap would be an effective way to ease risks;

- Branding and marketing initiatives are needed to tap into richer customers in developed markets;

- Prepare for the direct competition with Huawei and ZTE in overseas market. Compared with the two rivals, Coolpad exclusively focuses on the smartphone market and lacks synergy among different product lineups. We would recommend Coolpad to further differentiate from rivals with improved hardware designs and more localized services and apps (e.g. social networking);

- Balance volume and profitability. Shifting upwards with more mid- and high-tier models, in order to improve ASP and profit margin, which will ensure the Hong Kong listed-company has sufficient cash on hands for the upcoming overseas expansion.

According to our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) service, the French mobile phone market dipped -6% year-on-year in Q4 2012. This followed flat growth in the prior three quarters of 2012 as the country struggled economically. Free Mobile, a challenger operator with low prices perfectly suited to the tougher economic times, is making a serious dent in the French cellphone market. Its main device partners are Samsung and Apple, who dominate shipments there. This published report, available to clients, tracks mobile phone vendor market share at the four major French operators -- Orange, SFR, Bouygues Telecom and Free Mobile -- from Q1 2009 to Q4 2012. The report is an important tool for measuring the health of individual handset brands at the operator level in Western Europe's third largest cellphone market.

According to our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) service, the German mobile phone market slipped by -8% year-on-year in Q4 2012, as the broader ongoing macroeconomic challenges affecting the whole of the eurozone trumped the relative strength of the German economy. Following the launch of the iPhone 5, Apple reclaimed a significant chunk of volumes in Germany, but there are also initial signs of traction for Nokia's Lumia Windows Phone family.  The Finnish vendor gained 1 point of sequential marketshare in the quarter. This published report, available to clients, tracks quarterly mobile vendor market share at the four major German operators -- T-Mobile, Vodafone, O2 and E-Plus -- from Q1 2009 to Q4 2012. The report is an important tool for measuring the health of individual handset brands at the operator level in Western Europe's second largest cellphone market.

According to our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) service, the UK mobile phone market dipped -4% year-on-year in Q4 2012, mimicking the broader economic challenges of the country. While Samsung and Apple showed healthy growth, this was offset by declines from Nokia, RIM, HTC and the Android long-tail. This published report, available to clients, tracks mobile phone vendor shipments and marketshare at the 4 major UK operators -- O2, Vodafone, Everything Everywhere and Three -- from Q1 2009 to Q4 2012. The report is an important tool for measuring the health of individual device brands at the operator level in Western Europe's largest cellphone market.

Smartphone shipments in the United States grew 25% annually in Q4 2012. Apple captured the number one smartphone spot overall, as well as the top smartphone vendor ranking at the country's two largest operators, Verizon Wireless and AT&T. Android partners, such as Samsung, LG, HTC and Huawei, combined to keep the Google platform as the number two OS overall. The full report, USA Smartphone Vendor Marketshare by Operator: Q4 2012, available to the clients of our handset country share tracker (CST) service, tracks mobile smartphone shipments, vendor marketshare, and OS marketshare for 20 major vendors and 5 major platforms in the United States across 4 top operators and total market on a quarterly basis from Q1 2011 to Q4 2012.

Our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) team attended the launch of the new Samsung Galaxy S4 smartphone at Radio City in New York, US, on Thursday 14th March, 2013. Several thousand attendees joined the event.

We trialed the S4 earlier this week and were briefed on the strategy behind it. This is a concise summary of our initial analysis:

Key Hardware: As expected, the S4 contains a 5.0-inch, full-HD, super AMOLED display with an impressive 441ppi in a rounded-slate formfactor. There are Qualcomm Snapdragon quad-core / Samsung Exynos octo-core chipsets, varying by region. Other specs include 2GB RAM, dual-camera, NFC and MHL. The S4 looks visually similar to the previous S3, but the materials feel better quality and it is slimmer, lighter and nicer to hold in the hand.

Key Software: Samsung has clearly worked hard on its software and the results are impressive. There is finger-hover for the touchscreen, gesture recognition, improved eye-tracking, and better camera-editing.

Key Services: Samsung has layered a rich suite of Samsung proprietary services on top of the Android Jelly Bean OS. There are plenty of “S” services, such as S-Health and S-Translator. Google will be worried by this.

The S4 will launch commercially in the US and worldwide at the end of April 2013. Versions will support 3G, 4G and TD-LTE. There are 325 carriers in 166 countries onboard, such as AT&T and Verizon Wireless. Pricing will be Note-like.

We forecast tens of millions of units to be shipped worldwide this year. Provided there are no major "hidden" bugs that become apparent after launch, the S4 will be another blockbuster product for Samsung.

Which competitors will be impacted by the S4? Apple, LG, Sony, HTC, Blackberry, Nokia, Huawei, ZTE and Motorola will all be getting some sleepless nights in the next few weeks. Models such as iPhone 5 and HTC One could feel some pain.

We will publish a full report to clients on Friday 15th March, 2013.

Our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) team attended the launch of the new Samsung Galaxy S4 smartphone at Radio City in New York, US, on Thursday 14th March, 2013. Several thousand attendees joined the event.

We trialed the S4 earlier this week and were briefed on the strategy behind it. This is a concise summary of our initial analysis:

Key Hardware: As expected, the S4 contains a 5.0-inch, full-HD, super AMOLED display with an impressive 441ppi in a rounded-slate formfactor. There are Qualcomm Snapdragon quad-core / Samsung Exynos octo-core chipsets, varying by region. Other specs include 2GB RAM, dual-camera, NFC and MHL. The S4 looks visually similar to the previous S3, but the materials feel better quality and it is slimmer, lighter and nicer to hold in the hand.

Key Software: Samsung has clearly worked hard on its software and the results are impressive. There is finger-hover for the touchscreen, gesture recognition, improved eye-tracking, and better camera-editing.

Key Services: Samsung has layered a rich suite of Samsung proprietary services on top of the Android Jelly Bean OS. There are plenty of “S” services, such as S-Health and S-Translator. Google will be worried by this.

The S4 will launch commercially in the US and worldwide at the end of April 2013. Versions will support 3G, 4G and TD-LTE. There are 325 carriers in 166 countries onboard, such as AT&T and Verizon Wireless. Pricing will be Note-like.

We forecast tens of millions of units to be shipped worldwide this year. Provided there are no major "hidden" bugs that become apparent after launch, the S4 will be another blockbuster product for Samsung.

Which competitors will be impacted by the S4? Apple, LG, Sony, HTC, Blackberry, Nokia, Huawei, ZTE and Motorola will all be getting some sleepless nights in the next few weeks. Models such as iPhone 5 and HTC One could feel some pain.

We will publish a full report to clients on Friday 15th March, 2013.

Analysts from our Country Share Tracker (CST) service will be attending the launch of Samsung's new Galaxy S4 flagship smartphone in New York, USA, on Thursday 14th March, 2013.

What do we expect to see?

Hardware: A 5-inch, multicore, LTE slate with upgraded materials and enhanced battery life.

Software: The latest version of Android. Improved eye-tracking. Better touch.

Services: More use of Hubs, such as Readers Hub. Jazzier maps. More support for NFC.

Pricing will be iPhone-like.

Subsidies from carriers in the US and worldwide will be high.

Above all, Samsung must be mindful NOT to do or say anything "bad". Apple lost heartshare when it mislaunched Maps alongside the iPhone 5 last year. Samsung must not replicate Apple's strategic misstep.

Will the S4 be good enough to catch the iPhone 5 as the world's best-selling smartphone model in 2013?

According to the latest research from our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) service, Apple’s iPhone 5 overtook Samsung’s Galaxy S3 to become the world’s best-selling smartphone model for the first time ever in the fourth quarter of 2012. A rich touchscreen, extensive distribution and generous operator subsidies have propelled the iPhone 5 to the top spot.

Apple’s iPhone 5 smartphone model shipped an estimated 27.4 million units worldwide during the fourth quarter of 2012. The iPhone 5 captured an impressive 13 percent share of all smartphones shipped globally and it has become the world’s best-selling smartphone model for the first time ever. A rich touchscreen design, extensive distribution across dozens of countries, and generous operator subsidies have been among the main causes of the iPhone 5’s success. In addition to the iPhone 5, Apple shipped an estimated 17.4 million iPhone 4S units for 8 percent smartphone share globally in Q4 2012. Apple’s iPhone 5 and iPhone 4S are currently the world’s two most popular smartphone models.

Apple’s iPhone 5 and iPhone 4S together accounted for 1 in 5 of all smartphones shipped worldwide in Q4 2012. This was an impressive performance, given the iPhone portfolio’s premium pricing. We estimate Samsung’s Galaxy S3 was the world’s third best-selling smartphone model and it shipped 15.4 million units globally, capturing 7 percent share in the fourth quarter of 2012. Samsung’s Galaxy S3 has long proven wildly popular with consumers and operators across North America, Europe and Asia. However, global demand for the Galaxy S3 appears to have peaked and Samsung will surely be keen to introduce its rumored Galaxy S4 upgrade in the coming weeks to fight back against Apple’s popular iPhone range.

Exhibit 1: Global Smartphone Shipments & Marketshare by Model in Q4 2012 [1]

[1] Numbers are rounded. Updated total. The Samsung Galaxy S3 total does not include the S3 Mini, S2, S or any other related models. The iPhone 5 total does not include the iPhone 4S, iPhone 4 or any other related models. The iPhone 4S total does not include the iPhone 5, iPhone 4 or any other related models.