According to our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) service, the French mobile phone market dipped -6% year-on-year in Q4 2012. This followed flat growth in the prior three quarters of 2012 as the country struggled economically. Free Mobile, a challenger operator with low prices perfectly suited to the tougher economic times, is making a serious dent in the French cellphone market. Its main device partners are Samsung and Apple, who dominate shipments there. This published report, available to clients, tracks mobile phone vendor market share at the four major French operators -- Orange, SFR, Bouygues Telecom and Free Mobile -- from Q1 2009 to Q4 2012. The report is an important tool for measuring the health of individual handset brands at the operator level in Western Europe's third largest cellphone market.

According to our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) service, the German mobile phone market slipped by -8% year-on-year in Q4 2012, as the broader ongoing macroeconomic challenges affecting the whole of the eurozone trumped the relative strength of the German economy. Following the launch of the iPhone 5, Apple reclaimed a significant chunk of volumes in Germany, but there are also initial signs of traction for Nokia's Lumia Windows Phone family.  The Finnish vendor gained 1 point of sequential marketshare in the quarter. This published report, available to clients, tracks quarterly mobile vendor market share at the four major German operators -- T-Mobile, Vodafone, O2 and E-Plus -- from Q1 2009 to Q4 2012. The report is an important tool for measuring the health of individual handset brands at the operator level in Western Europe's second largest cellphone market.

According to our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) service, the UK mobile phone market dipped -4% year-on-year in Q4 2012, mimicking the broader economic challenges of the country. While Samsung and Apple showed healthy growth, this was offset by declines from Nokia, RIM, HTC and the Android long-tail. This published report, available to clients, tracks mobile phone vendor shipments and marketshare at the 4 major UK operators -- O2, Vodafone, Everything Everywhere and Three -- from Q1 2009 to Q4 2012. The report is an important tool for measuring the health of individual device brands at the operator level in Western Europe's largest cellphone market.

Our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) team attended the launch of the new Samsung Galaxy S4 smartphone at Radio City in New York, US, on Thursday 14th March, 2013. Several thousand attendees joined the event.

We trialed the S4 earlier this week and were briefed on the strategy behind it. This is a concise summary of our initial analysis:

Key Hardware: As expected, the S4 contains a 5.0-inch, full-HD, super AMOLED display with an impressive 441ppi in a rounded-slate formfactor. There are Qualcomm Snapdragon quad-core / Samsung Exynos octo-core chipsets, varying by region. Other specs include 2GB RAM, dual-camera, NFC and MHL. The S4 looks visually similar to the previous S3, but the materials feel better quality and it is slimmer, lighter and nicer to hold in the hand.

Key Software: Samsung has clearly worked hard on its software and the results are impressive. There is finger-hover for the touchscreen, gesture recognition, improved eye-tracking, and better camera-editing.

Key Services: Samsung has layered a rich suite of Samsung proprietary services on top of the Android Jelly Bean OS. There are plenty of “S” services, such as S-Health and S-Translator. Google will be worried by this.

The S4 will launch commercially in the US and worldwide at the end of April 2013. Versions will support 3G, 4G and TD-LTE. There are 325 carriers in 166 countries onboard, such as AT&T and Verizon Wireless. Pricing will be Note-like.

We forecast tens of millions of units to be shipped worldwide this year. Provided there are no major "hidden" bugs that become apparent after launch, the S4 will be another blockbuster product for Samsung.

Which competitors will be impacted by the S4? Apple, LG, Sony, HTC, Blackberry, Nokia, Huawei, ZTE and Motorola will all be getting some sleepless nights in the next few weeks. Models such as iPhone 5 and HTC One could feel some pain.

We will publish a full report to clients on Friday 15th March, 2013.

Our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) team attended the launch of the new Samsung Galaxy S4 smartphone at Radio City in New York, US, on Thursday 14th March, 2013. Several thousand attendees joined the event.

We trialed the S4 earlier this week and were briefed on the strategy behind it. This is a concise summary of our initial analysis:

Key Hardware: As expected, the S4 contains a 5.0-inch, full-HD, super AMOLED display with an impressive 441ppi in a rounded-slate formfactor. There are Qualcomm Snapdragon quad-core / Samsung Exynos octo-core chipsets, varying by region. Other specs include 2GB RAM, dual-camera, NFC and MHL. The S4 looks visually similar to the previous S3, but the materials feel better quality and it is slimmer, lighter and nicer to hold in the hand.

Key Software: Samsung has clearly worked hard on its software and the results are impressive. There is finger-hover for the touchscreen, gesture recognition, improved eye-tracking, and better camera-editing.

Key Services: Samsung has layered a rich suite of Samsung proprietary services on top of the Android Jelly Bean OS. There are plenty of “S” services, such as S-Health and S-Translator. Google will be worried by this.

The S4 will launch commercially in the US and worldwide at the end of April 2013. Versions will support 3G, 4G and TD-LTE. There are 325 carriers in 166 countries onboard, such as AT&T and Verizon Wireless. Pricing will be Note-like.

We forecast tens of millions of units to be shipped worldwide this year. Provided there are no major "hidden" bugs that become apparent after launch, the S4 will be another blockbuster product for Samsung.

Which competitors will be impacted by the S4? Apple, LG, Sony, HTC, Blackberry, Nokia, Huawei, ZTE and Motorola will all be getting some sleepless nights in the next few weeks. Models such as iPhone 5 and HTC One could feel some pain.

We will publish a full report to clients on Friday 15th March, 2013.

Analysts from our Country Share Tracker (CST) service will be attending the launch of Samsung's new Galaxy S4 flagship smartphone in New York, USA, on Thursday 14th March, 2013.

What do we expect to see?

Hardware: A 5-inch, multicore, LTE slate with upgraded materials and enhanced battery life.

Software: The latest version of Android. Improved eye-tracking. Better touch.

Services: More use of Hubs, such as Readers Hub. Jazzier maps. More support for NFC.

Pricing will be iPhone-like.

Subsidies from carriers in the US and worldwide will be high.

Above all, Samsung must be mindful NOT to do or say anything "bad". Apple lost heartshare when it mislaunched Maps alongside the iPhone 5 last year. Samsung must not replicate Apple's strategic misstep.

Will the S4 be good enough to catch the iPhone 5 as the world's best-selling smartphone model in 2013?

According to the latest research from our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) service, Apple’s iPhone 5 overtook Samsung’s Galaxy S3 to become the world’s best-selling smartphone model for the first time ever in the fourth quarter of 2012. A rich touchscreen, extensive distribution and generous operator subsidies have propelled the iPhone 5 to the top spot.

Apple’s iPhone 5 smartphone model shipped an estimated 27.4 million units worldwide during the fourth quarter of 2012. The iPhone 5 captured an impressive 13 percent share of all smartphones shipped globally and it has become the world’s best-selling smartphone model for the first time ever. A rich touchscreen design, extensive distribution across dozens of countries, and generous operator subsidies have been among the main causes of the iPhone 5’s success. In addition to the iPhone 5, Apple shipped an estimated 17.4 million iPhone 4S units for 8 percent smartphone share globally in Q4 2012. Apple’s iPhone 5 and iPhone 4S are currently the world’s two most popular smartphone models.

Apple’s iPhone 5 and iPhone 4S together accounted for 1 in 5 of all smartphones shipped worldwide in Q4 2012. This was an impressive performance, given the iPhone portfolio’s premium pricing. We estimate Samsung’s Galaxy S3 was the world’s third best-selling smartphone model and it shipped 15.4 million units globally, capturing 7 percent share in the fourth quarter of 2012. Samsung’s Galaxy S3 has long proven wildly popular with consumers and operators across North America, Europe and Asia. However, global demand for the Galaxy S3 appears to have peaked and Samsung will surely be keen to introduce its rumored Galaxy S4 upgrade in the coming weeks to fight back against Apple’s popular iPhone range.

Exhibit 1: Global Smartphone Shipments & Marketshare by Model in Q4 2012 [1]

[1] Numbers are rounded. Updated total. The Samsung Galaxy S3 total does not include the S3 Mini, S2, S or any other related models. The iPhone 5 total does not include the iPhone 4S, iPhone 4 or any other related models. The iPhone 4S total does not include the iPhone 5, iPhone 4 or any other related models.

According to our Country Share Tracker (CST) service, smartphone shipments surged +64% annually in China during the fourth quarter of 2012. Android and Android forks together accounted for a record volume of all smartphones shipped in China last year. Apple iOS followed in second place. More analysis can be downloaded by clients here.

According to the latest research from our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service, global smartphone shipments grew 43 percent annually to reach a record 700 million units in 2012. Samsung was the star performer, capturing 30 percent marketshare worldwide and extending its lead over Apple and Nokia.

Global smartphone shipments grew 38 percent annually from 157.0 million units in Q4 2011 to 217.0 million in Q4 2012. Global smartphone shipments for the full year reached a record 700.1 million units in 2012, increasing robustly from 490.5 million units in 2011. Global shipment growth slowed from 64 percent in 2011 to 43 percent in 2012 as penetration of smartphones began to mature in developed regions such as North America and Western Europe.

Samsung shipped a record 213.0 million smartphones worldwide and captured 30 percent marketshare in 2012. This was the largest number of units ever shipped by a smartphone vendor in a single year, beating Nokia?s previous all-time record when it shipped 100.1 million units during 2010. Despite tough competition in stores and courtrooms, Samsung continued to deliver numerous hit models, from the high-end Galaxy Note2 phablet to the mass-market Galaxy Y. Apple grew a healthy 46 percent annually and shipped 135.8 million smartphones worldwide for 19 percent marketshare in 2012, broadly flat from the 19 percent level recorded in 2011. Apple had a strong year in developed regions like North America, but this was offset partly by its limited presence in high-growth emerging markets such as Africa.

Samsung and Apple together accounted for half of all smartphones shipped worldwide in 2012. Large marketing budgets, extensive distribution channels and attractive product portfolios have enabled Samsung and Apple to tighten their grip on the smartphone industry. The growth of Samsung and Apple has continued to impact Nokia. Nokia retained its position as the world?s third largest smartphone vendor for full-year 2012, but its global marketshare has dropped sharply from 16 percent to five percent during the past year. Nokia's Windows Phone portfolio has improved significantly in recent months, with new models like the Lumia 920, but we believe the vendor still lacks a true hero model in its range that can be considered an Apple iPhone or Samsung S3 killer.


The summary of the report can be viewed here.

Exhibit 1: Global Mobile Phone Vendor Shipments and Market Share in Q4 2012  1

Samsung, the leading handset provider based in South Korea, recently announced that sales of its Galaxy S series have exceeded 100 million units since the launch of original Galaxy S around two years and seven months ago.

The original Galaxy S sold 10 million units within its first seven months, eventually topping 24 million sales, while the Galaxy S2 topped 10 million within just five months - eventually reaching 40 million units sold. Samsung’s Galaxy S3 sold 20 million units in 100 days and sales have already exceeded 40 million.

Clients of Strategy Analytics Handset Country Share Tracker (HCST) service can access detailed data on global shipments of the leading smartphone models in this report: Global Smartphone Shipments by Family / Model: Q3 2012.