Global smartphone shipments surged +38% annually in Q4 2012. We estimate the top 10 smartphone families accounted for over two thirds of smartphones shipped worldwide during the quarter. Samsung and Apple top the charts, but Sony's Xperia, LG's Optimus and Huawei 's Ascend series are quietly gaining traction. This report, Global Smartphone Shipments by Family / Model: Q4 2012, available to the clients of our HCST (Handset Country Share Tracker) service, tracks the world's best-selling smartphone families and models by shipment volumes from Q1 2011 to Q4 2012. This report will give you the information on how many units of iPhone 4S, iPhone 5, Galaxy S3, Galaxy Note and other flagship models from smartphone vendors have been shipped on a quarterly basis for two years. In this regards, this report is a valuable tool for component makers, car manufacturers, content suppliers, mobile operators, device vendors and other stakeholders who want to identify and measure the world's most-popular smartphones by individual model.

According to our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) service, the German mobile phone market slipped by -8% year-on-year in Q4 2012, as the broader ongoing macroeconomic challenges affecting the whole of the eurozone trumped the relative strength of the German economy. Following the launch of the iPhone 5, Apple reclaimed a significant chunk of volumes in Germany, but there are also initial signs of traction for Nokia's Lumia Windows Phone family.  The Finnish vendor gained 1 point of sequential marketshare in the quarter. This published report, available to clients, tracks quarterly mobile vendor market share at the four major German operators -- T-Mobile, Vodafone, O2 and E-Plus -- from Q1 2009 to Q4 2012. The report is an important tool for measuring the health of individual handset brands at the operator level in Western Europe's second largest cellphone market.

According to our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) service, the UK mobile phone market dipped -4% year-on-year in Q4 2012, mimicking the broader economic challenges of the country. While Samsung and Apple showed healthy growth, this was offset by declines from Nokia, RIM, HTC and the Android long-tail. This published report, available to clients, tracks mobile phone vendor shipments and marketshare at the 4 major UK operators -- O2, Vodafone, Everything Everywhere and Three -- from Q1 2009 to Q4 2012. The report is an important tool for measuring the health of individual device brands at the operator level in Western Europe's largest cellphone market.

According to the latest research from our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) service, Apple’s iPhone 5 overtook Samsung’s Galaxy S3 to become the world’s best-selling smartphone model for the first time ever in the fourth quarter of 2012. A rich touchscreen, extensive distribution and generous operator subsidies have propelled the iPhone 5 to the top spot.

Apple’s iPhone 5 smartphone model shipped an estimated 27.4 million units worldwide during the fourth quarter of 2012. The iPhone 5 captured an impressive 13 percent share of all smartphones shipped globally and it has become the world’s best-selling smartphone model for the first time ever. A rich touchscreen design, extensive distribution across dozens of countries, and generous operator subsidies have been among the main causes of the iPhone 5’s success. In addition to the iPhone 5, Apple shipped an estimated 17.4 million iPhone 4S units for 8 percent smartphone share globally in Q4 2012. Apple’s iPhone 5 and iPhone 4S are currently the world’s two most popular smartphone models.

Apple’s iPhone 5 and iPhone 4S together accounted for 1 in 5 of all smartphones shipped worldwide in Q4 2012. This was an impressive performance, given the iPhone portfolio’s premium pricing. We estimate Samsung’s Galaxy S3 was the world’s third best-selling smartphone model and it shipped 15.4 million units globally, capturing 7 percent share in the fourth quarter of 2012. Samsung’s Galaxy S3 has long proven wildly popular with consumers and operators across North America, Europe and Asia. However, global demand for the Galaxy S3 appears to have peaked and Samsung will surely be keen to introduce its rumored Galaxy S4 upgrade in the coming weeks to fight back against Apple’s popular iPhone range.

Exhibit 1: Global Smartphone Shipments & Marketshare by Model in Q4 2012 [1]

[1] Numbers are rounded. Updated total. The Samsung Galaxy S3 total does not include the S3 Mini, S2, S or any other related models. The iPhone 5 total does not include the iPhone 4S, iPhone 4 or any other related models. The iPhone 4S total does not include the iPhone 5, iPhone 4 or any other related models.

According to the latest research from our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service, global smartphone shipments grew 43 percent annually to reach a record 700 million units in 2012. Samsung was the star performer, capturing 30 percent marketshare worldwide and extending its lead over Apple and Nokia.

Global smartphone shipments grew 38 percent annually from 157.0 million units in Q4 2011 to 217.0 million in Q4 2012. Global smartphone shipments for the full year reached a record 700.1 million units in 2012, increasing robustly from 490.5 million units in 2011. Global shipment growth slowed from 64 percent in 2011 to 43 percent in 2012 as penetration of smartphones began to mature in developed regions such as North America and Western Europe.

Samsung shipped a record 213.0 million smartphones worldwide and captured 30 percent marketshare in 2012. This was the largest number of units ever shipped by a smartphone vendor in a single year, beating Nokia?s previous all-time record when it shipped 100.1 million units during 2010. Despite tough competition in stores and courtrooms, Samsung continued to deliver numerous hit models, from the high-end Galaxy Note2 phablet to the mass-market Galaxy Y. Apple grew a healthy 46 percent annually and shipped 135.8 million smartphones worldwide for 19 percent marketshare in 2012, broadly flat from the 19 percent level recorded in 2011. Apple had a strong year in developed regions like North America, but this was offset partly by its limited presence in high-growth emerging markets such as Africa.

Samsung and Apple together accounted for half of all smartphones shipped worldwide in 2012. Large marketing budgets, extensive distribution channels and attractive product portfolios have enabled Samsung and Apple to tighten their grip on the smartphone industry. The growth of Samsung and Apple has continued to impact Nokia. Nokia retained its position as the world?s third largest smartphone vendor for full-year 2012, but its global marketshare has dropped sharply from 16 percent to five percent during the past year. Nokia's Windows Phone portfolio has improved significantly in recent months, with new models like the Lumia 920, but we believe the vendor still lacks a true hero model in its range that can be considered an Apple iPhone or Samsung S3 killer.


The summary of the report can be viewed here.

Exhibit 1: Global Mobile Phone Vendor Shipments and Market Share in Q4 2012  1

According to Strategy Analytics’ Country Share Tracker (CST) service, 15 countries represented three-quarters of global smartphone shipments in Q2 2012: Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Spain, UK, and USA. During the quarter, Samsung was the number one smartphone vendor in 13 of these countries. Meanwhile, Apple captured the top spot in the United States, desipite early anticipation of the recently released iPhone 5. Indeed, Samsung and Apple have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, as the ony two smartphone vendors with double-digit marketshare worldiwde. More smartphone vendor shipments to 15 key countries worldwide in Q2 2012 can be viewed by clients here.

Mobile handset shipments experienced a slowdown in the United States and Canada in Q1 2012, while volume growth in Brazil and Mexico well out-paced the global +4% growth rate. Samsung maintained top spot in Brazil, while Nokia regained the leading position in Mexico. Apple continued to ramp up across Canada and the US, in both of which it holds a solid number two position thanks to an expanded operator presence and a multi-tier iPhone family. This published report, available for download to clients of our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) service, tracks quarterly handset shipments and vendor marketshare for 4 major countries in North and South America from Q1 2009 to Q1 2012. They are Brazil, Canada, Mexico and USA.

Nokia has a healthy working relationship with Microsoft, and the partnership has been growing over the past few years. Recent initiatives include:

• Microsoft Office Mobile Suite for Symbian.

• Microsoft Sliverlight for Symbian.

• The Nokia Booklet, a 3G netbook based on Windows 7.

On the organization front, Stephen Elop, a Microsoft veteran, took over the helms at Nokia earlier this year, bringing both companies closer than ever. While Sliverlight, Microsoft Office, and Windows 7 netbook initiatives are all signs of a healthy partnership, embracing the WP7 platform in its totality takes the relationship to the next level. Shifting the building blocks of your device/software/service ecosystem in favor of third parties is no small decision and will have effect on your intangible sub-brand assets such as Ovi. And that exactly is the rumor from this week, that Nokia will launch WP7 devices in 2011. While we have no official version of the story, it would be interesting to assess the impact of such a partnership in the market. On the positive side, Nokia’s industrial design, distribution and supply chain process are among the best in the industry. WP7 will gain a strong partner in Nokia to bring the best-in-class devices among Windows Phone series. But how much of an impact it will have on Nokia’s platform portfolio, positioning and regional priorities? Where WP7 sits in Nokia’s portfolio?                                        Given the base set of high-end hardware requirements for WP7, the Nokia WP7 device will be positioned in the same premium space occupied by the MeeGo platform. Will Nokia abandon the MeeGo platform in favor of WP7? Or are they going to co-exist, with WP7 focusing on the prosumer and business segments along the same lines of the S60 E-Series? Will there be any major shift in regional platform trends? USA: With an estimated 6% marketshare in 2010 (nearly all basic and featurephones), Nokia has been steadily losing marketshare and carrier shelf space in the US. The partnership is unlikely to change the competitive landscape in the US market, where Apple, HTC, Motorola and Samsung lead the operator shelves. WP7 LTE phones in H2 2011 / H1 2012 might be a potential option for Nokia to make inroads in the US. Western Europe: Microsoft will find more acceptance in carrier channels through Nokia in Western Europe. But beyond the “foot in the  door” strategy, the partnership will have to do little with the success of the platform. In emerging markets, where Nokia has the broadest reach in mid-tier smartphones, the WP7 will be not be the obvious choice for the cost sensitive segments. We believe Nokia will continue to rely on the S60 platform in the mid-tier smartphone segment. Overall, while the idea of a Nokia WP7 device looks like a big win for Microsoft, it’s unlikely to change the prospects of Nokia or WP7 in the smartphone department. Nevertheless, Nokia needs to raise its profile in the US, and this would be a step in the right direction, but it will need step-changes in distribution and subsidies. But for the most part, it’s going to be just another partnership for Microsoft and Nokia – you’re only as strong as your weakest link. - Bonny Joy

Cumulative Shipments, First 8 Quarters

September 23, 2010

While there has understandably been a lot of attention given to consumer apps post iPhone and the plethora of application stores that have emerged, business mobility and enterprise mobility offer huge potential from horizontal to vertical applications and from smartphones to iPads and tablets to superphones.

In both NA and W. Europe, business customers account for under 30% of users but are the dominant streams of both revenue and profits for operators. On the device side, premium priced models from RIM, Nokia, and Microsoft Mobile licensees as well as the iPhone have long been key drivers of profits in a market where low single digit margins are the norm.  The explosion of smartphone choices has led to the battle ground moving beyond the corner office, to other executive and now increasingly the midlevel manager.

With a new range of devices competing for space in the corporate market, the issue of corporate versus individual liable has become an increasing priority for IT decision makers. Add on the complexity of managing an expanding list of OS (Android, iPhone, Windows Mobile, Symbian, Palm, MeeGo, Bada from Samsung) and the growing importance of mobile portable devices with access behind the firewall and one can already feel a corporate migraine forming…. And that’s before we even discuss device management, mobility policy, device retirement etc. etc.

I am looking forward to CTIA Fall (San Francisco October 5-7) and in particular to the Enterprise Mobility Boot Camp moderated by Philippe Winthrop of the Enterprise Mobility Foundation. The boot camp spread over two days will address many of the issue listed above with our own Andy Brown featured in an analyst roundtable on October 6^th.  I look forward to meeting you there. Don’t hesitate to contact Philippe for passes to this the deep dive enterprise mobility event.

David Kerr

David Kerr
Snr. VP - Global Wireless Practice
Tel: +1 617 614 0720
Mob: +1 262 271 8974