Global smartphone shipments surged +38% annually in Q4 2012. We estimate the top 10 smartphone families accounted for over two thirds of smartphones shipped worldwide during the quarter. Samsung and Apple top the charts, but Sony's Xperia, LG's Optimus and Huawei 's Ascend series are quietly gaining traction. This report, Global Smartphone Shipments by Family / Model: Q4 2012, available to the clients of our HCST (Handset Country Share Tracker) service, tracks the world's best-selling smartphone families and models by shipment volumes from Q1 2011 to Q4 2012. This report will give you the information on how many units of iPhone 4S, iPhone 5, Galaxy S3, Galaxy Note and other flagship models from smartphone vendors have been shipped on a quarterly basis for two years. In this regards, this report is a valuable tool for component makers, car manufacturers, content suppliers, mobile operators, device vendors and other stakeholders who want to identify and measure the world's most-popular smartphones by individual model.

Smartphone shipments in the United States grew 25% annually in Q4 2012. Apple captured the number one smartphone spot overall, as well as the top smartphone vendor ranking at the country's two largest operators, Verizon Wireless and AT&T. Android partners, such as Samsung, LG, HTC and Huawei, combined to keep the Google platform as the number two OS overall. The full report, USA Smartphone Vendor Marketshare by Operator: Q4 2012, available to the clients of our handset country share tracker (CST) service, tracks mobile smartphone shipments, vendor marketshare, and OS marketshare for 20 major vendors and 5 major platforms in the United States across 4 top operators and total market on a quarterly basis from Q1 2011 to Q4 2012.

According to the latest research from our Handset Country Share Tracker (CST) service, Apple’s iPhone 5 overtook Samsung’s Galaxy S3 to become the world’s best-selling smartphone model for the first time ever in the fourth quarter of 2012. A rich touchscreen, extensive distribution and generous operator subsidies have propelled the iPhone 5 to the top spot.

Apple’s iPhone 5 smartphone model shipped an estimated 27.4 million units worldwide during the fourth quarter of 2012. The iPhone 5 captured an impressive 13 percent share of all smartphones shipped globally and it has become the world’s best-selling smartphone model for the first time ever. A rich touchscreen design, extensive distribution across dozens of countries, and generous operator subsidies have been among the main causes of the iPhone 5’s success. In addition to the iPhone 5, Apple shipped an estimated 17.4 million iPhone 4S units for 8 percent smartphone share globally in Q4 2012. Apple’s iPhone 5 and iPhone 4S are currently the world’s two most popular smartphone models.

Apple’s iPhone 5 and iPhone 4S together accounted for 1 in 5 of all smartphones shipped worldwide in Q4 2012. This was an impressive performance, given the iPhone portfolio’s premium pricing. We estimate Samsung’s Galaxy S3 was the world’s third best-selling smartphone model and it shipped 15.4 million units globally, capturing 7 percent share in the fourth quarter of 2012. Samsung’s Galaxy S3 has long proven wildly popular with consumers and operators across North America, Europe and Asia. However, global demand for the Galaxy S3 appears to have peaked and Samsung will surely be keen to introduce its rumored Galaxy S4 upgrade in the coming weeks to fight back against Apple’s popular iPhone range.

Exhibit 1: Global Smartphone Shipments & Marketshare by Model in Q4 2012 [1]

[1] Numbers are rounded. Updated total. The Samsung Galaxy S3 total does not include the S3 Mini, S2, S or any other related models. The iPhone 5 total does not include the iPhone 4S, iPhone 4 or any other related models. The iPhone 4S total does not include the iPhone 5, iPhone 4 or any other related models.

According to our Country Share Tracker (CST) service, smartphone shipments surged +64% annually in China during the fourth quarter of 2012. Android and Android forks together accounted for a record volume of all smartphones shipped in China last year. Apple iOS followed in second place. More analysis can be downloaded by clients here.

According to the latest research from our Wireless Smartphone Strategies (WSS) service, global smartphone shipments grew 43 percent annually to reach a record 700 million units in 2012. Samsung was the star performer, capturing 30 percent marketshare worldwide and extending its lead over Apple and Nokia.

Global smartphone shipments grew 38 percent annually from 157.0 million units in Q4 2011 to 217.0 million in Q4 2012. Global smartphone shipments for the full year reached a record 700.1 million units in 2012, increasing robustly from 490.5 million units in 2011. Global shipment growth slowed from 64 percent in 2011 to 43 percent in 2012 as penetration of smartphones began to mature in developed regions such as North America and Western Europe.

Samsung shipped a record 213.0 million smartphones worldwide and captured 30 percent marketshare in 2012. This was the largest number of units ever shipped by a smartphone vendor in a single year, beating Nokia?s previous all-time record when it shipped 100.1 million units during 2010. Despite tough competition in stores and courtrooms, Samsung continued to deliver numerous hit models, from the high-end Galaxy Note2 phablet to the mass-market Galaxy Y. Apple grew a healthy 46 percent annually and shipped 135.8 million smartphones worldwide for 19 percent marketshare in 2012, broadly flat from the 19 percent level recorded in 2011. Apple had a strong year in developed regions like North America, but this was offset partly by its limited presence in high-growth emerging markets such as Africa.

Samsung and Apple together accounted for half of all smartphones shipped worldwide in 2012. Large marketing budgets, extensive distribution channels and attractive product portfolios have enabled Samsung and Apple to tighten their grip on the smartphone industry. The growth of Samsung and Apple has continued to impact Nokia. Nokia retained its position as the world?s third largest smartphone vendor for full-year 2012, but its global marketshare has dropped sharply from 16 percent to five percent during the past year. Nokia's Windows Phone portfolio has improved significantly in recent months, with new models like the Lumia 920, but we believe the vendor still lacks a true hero model in its range that can be considered an Apple iPhone or Samsung S3 killer.


The summary of the report can be viewed here.

Exhibit 1: Global Mobile Phone Vendor Shipments and Market Share in Q4 2012  1

According to Strategy Analytics’ Country Share Tracker (CST) service, 15 countries represented three-quarters of global smartphone shipments in Q2 2012: Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Spain, UK, and USA. During the quarter, Samsung was the number one smartphone vendor in 13 of these countries. Meanwhile, Apple captured the top spot in the United States, desipite early anticipation of the recently released iPhone 5. Indeed, Samsung and Apple have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, as the ony two smartphone vendors with double-digit marketshare worldiwde. More smartphone vendor shipments to 15 key countries worldwide in Q2 2012 can be viewed by clients here.

The inevitable movement to tiered pricing which started with Verizon Wireless acknowledging its plans to do so for LTE and has been accelerated with the much anticipated data plan announcement by AT&T this week.  So, what next?

• Will we see significant priced based competition for mobile data among the top US operators?
• Will we see significant movement in share of adds for AT&T as iPhone wannabees are tempted by a plan of only $15?
• What impact will lower data plans for smartphones have on AT&T’s Quick Messaging Devices and Verizon Wireless equivalent?
• How long before we see family data plans and shared usage across multiple devices?

The move by AT&T is a smart play to extend the smartphone momentum as the low hanging fruit of Apple aficionados, multimedia techies and style seekers willing to pay top dollar has been significantly penetrated.

There is no doubt that the iPhone remains the coolest device on the marketplace and the end to end user experience remains easily the best in class. So, reducing the TCO to attract the next 20% of customers to a paid data plans while educating customers about data usage levels and managing the traffic risk is very smart business in my opinion.

The lower price points will help AT&T maintain its current leading share of smartphone users and may be attractive to casual social networkers

• Although the 50 photos allowance is not exactly generous! For casual messenger, and social network status checking and moderate email the new DataPlus plan is quite attractive overall and will likely attract a portion of customers who would otherwise opt for a Quick Messaging Device from AT&T or a competitive offering from Verizon Wireless.

I do expect to see some modest price competition among the big operators

• with T-Mobile most likely to drive prices lower given their need for scale and to protect their predominantly youth centric customer base. but also expect an increasingly strong Verizon Wireless handset line up to compete strongly.

The impact on Quick Messaging Devices is in my opinion likely to be modest

• as a traditional qwerty remains overwhelmingly the input of choice for heavy messengers in the US although there is definitely room for lowering the $10 mandatory data plan on featurephones

Family data plans and data plans which allow access across multiple devices are in the pipeline

• but will probably not make an appearance until 2012+ as part of LTE offerings.

From a device vendor perspective, the move to lower priced iPhone plans is likely to put further pressure on vendors like LG who have yet to make a credible offer in this space as well as RIM who will find more competition in the consumer space.

The lower pricing on data plans will be music to the ears of ambitious new entrants like Huawei, ZTE who plan to bring mass market priced devices to the US & Europe. The lower TCO of smartphones as a result of downward pressure on service prices boost their addressable market.

May you live in interesting times as the old Chinese proverb goes. Well in the information, communication and entertainment industry we certainly do. Some very interesting questions face our industry whether we look at:

• the outcome of much delayed Indian 3G auction or
• the battlegrounds around HSPA+ and LTE or
• the surging Android ecosystem vs. weakening Symbian or
• the upside potential for WebOS under it new owners
• the potential disruption caused by mobile cloud phones and device

Every major technology advancement has lead to a massive disruption in the handset and infrastructure vendor community.

• In 3G, Motorola’s slim myopia led to its near ruin and has provided huge growth for Samsung and a foothold in international markets for LG and SEMC.
• On the infrastructure side 3G was expertly grasped by Huawei and ZTE leading to a new wave of M & A and a new world order which counts Nortel as a victim and seriously challenges ALU.

So how will the migration to 4G change the playing field?

• Who will benefit most on the operator/service provider side?
• Will Cloud Phones be disruptive in LTE?
• Will operators find a path to realign the traffic/revenue mix with mobile broadband devices?

I would welcome your thoughts on these key questions. Also don’t forget to join our client webinar on Thursday May 27.

David

The big two Chinese vendors, Huawei and ZTE, have initially focused their handset activities on emerging markets, such as ChIndia, Africa and Latin America. Enabled by MediaTek, Qualcomm and Via chipsets, the two handset brands have achieved solid shipment growth in GSM and CDMA since 2007. Both vendors will ship tens of millions of units in emerging markets this year, mostly for low-end prepaid users, giving them a base for scale and buying power. This is phase 1.

Phase 2 of their growth targets mature regions, such as Western Europe and the US. ZTE and Huawei are using their success in emerging markets as a springboard to attack developed markets. The Chinese rightly believe carriers are king in developed countries, and they are quietly partnering with a growing number of the biggest players to deliver carrier-branded hardware. Vodafone recently unveiled 8 new Vodafone-branded models across low-, mid- and high-tiers for its European markets, 6 of which are manufactured by ZTE and Huawei. For example, the Vodafone 845 3G touch-smartphone with Android 2.1 is built by Huawei. The Vodafone 547 EDGE touchphone is made by ZTE. In the US, Huawei made the popular mid-tier Tap touchphone for T Mobile. Carriers like the cost-competitiveness and flexible customization offered by the Chinese brands, and they are useful alternatives to the European, American and Asian vendors such as HTC.

Phase 3 will eventually require a more-complex five-pronged strategy to defend against existing or potential new competitors in the operator-branded handset industry such as Sagem or  Foxconn. Huawei and ZTE will need to upgrade their companies’ competences in:

1. branding;

2. industrial design;

3. portfolio management for build-to-plan products;

4. software usability;

5. content and services.

For now, both Chinese vendors are happy to provide 3G handsets mostly as a delivery tool for operator services. For example, the Vodafone 845 from Huawei is optimized for Vodafone 360 services. But ZTE and Huawei will arguably struggle to sustainably differentiate their own brands on pricing and hardware alone. Developing a software and services (S&S) strategy beyond hardware will therefore become an important value-add for Chinese vendors to attract and retain affluent users in mature regions. An S&S strategy will subsequently open up opportunities for Chinese services brands to partner with ZTE and Huawei to showcase their products in new markets abroad. We have a Google phone and a Microsoft phone; how about a Baidu phone?