Cisco built up yesterday’s big news announcement as something “that will forever change the Internet and its impact on consumers, businesses and governments”. The chances are slim that more than a tiny fraction of consumers, businesses and governments will ever actually encounter the catalyst for this revolution, namely the new CRS-3 router, which will help service providers deliver the vast quantities of video that people will expect to consume over the internet in the coming years. So in that sense, the announcement was a slight disappointment, if none the less significant. Shortly beforehand, the news arrived that Cisco had also became a strategic investor in SiBeam, Inc. Also currently unknown to most consumers, perhaps, but SiBeam’s wireless video technology could become ubiquitous over the coming decade. We’ve covered it many times, most recently here. For some years SiBeam has been in a race with various other technology developers, and primarily Amimon, to bring wireless distribution of high-definition video to the digital home. While early consumer products have reached the market in limited numbers using both SiBeam and Amimon solutions, sales performance has been restricted by high prices. We are also hearing that Amimon’s technology has not proved as reliable as it needs to be, and as we predicted before, we believe the momentum is in the direction of WirelessHD, if there is indeed going to be a single de facto standard. Cisco joins other major consumer technology investors Samsung, Panasonic and others in backing the WirelessHD 60 GHz technology. So as well as investing in the future of internet video distribution, Cisco is counting on tomorrow’s in-home video networking technologies to build its vision of a world of networked video. David Mercer Client Reading: Wireless High Definition Appearing Soon at a Home Cinema Near You

How much is a cable-free TV worth? That’s the key question for TV manufacturers and technology vendors as they seek to stir interest once again in the concept of wire-free TVs and peripheral devices. While few consumers will have noticed, it’s been possible for a few years to connect high definition devices like set-top boxes and Blu-ray Disc players to HDTVs without using a cable. The technology has been built in to a few very high-end TVs from Sony and others, but at enormous cost. In fact, with 40” LCD TVs retailing at $600 or less, it can cost considerably more than that just to retrofit a wireless HD set-up. Clearly only those most passionate about clutter-free homes are likely to see the value in spending $1000 or more to remove one cable from their AV system. Until the costs come down dramatically it seems that wireless HD is likely to remain entrenched in its niche market. Those obstacles won’t stop two key wireless HD technology proponents from getting their messages across as CES 2010 approaches. We’ve published several times about this particular tech standards battle over the past few years. The conclusions in our 2007 review look pretty accurate with the benefit of two and a half years’ hindsight. At that time we didn’t expect much standards clarity or indeed volume in the market much before 2010, and that’s more or less how things have panned out. There are two major technology developers: Amimon, which supports the WHDI standard, and SiBeam, which backs WirelessHD. Behind each vendor is a selection of familiar names from the consumer electronics industry, with several appearing on both sides. For this reason alone it’s been difficult to predict the eventual outcome of this battle, if indeed one solution eventually comes to dominate the market. Sony in particular has flirted with both camps, and although it has recently indicated increased support for WirelessHD, executives have suggested they are still uncertain about the longer term potential for wireless HD technologies in general. According to Sony, the price increment is the main barrier to wider adoption. Amimon has also announced progress in the past few days, with the introduction of WHDI PC modules aimed at netbooks and notebooks. WHDI-HDMI adapters will also be launched so that HDMI devices can be enabled for wireless HD. Consumer products are expected to reach the market next year. Apart from the main technical differences between the two standards – one being that WHDI uses 5GHz, WirelessHD 60GHz – a key debating point is whether whole-home signal distribution has significant value. The WHDI camp pushes this as one its main advantages. Personally this strikes me as a strange argument: most peripheral devices will support one display at any one time, wherever they are placed in the home. There may be some demand for devices which support multiple displays (whole-home DVRs, for example), but these are likely to be an expensive alternative to buying multiple devices. The main user advantage of wireless HD technologies seems to me to be removing the wires within a single AV system, and both technologies do this job. The other arguments inevitably have focused on quality and performance, and these are always tough to judge from an independent perspective. I’m sure we’ll hear more from both camps over the coming weeks and during CES itself. But until they can guarantee more realistic consumer price points wireless HD solutions are likely to remain a distant prospect for mass market success. Twitter: twitter.com/DavidMercer_SA Client Reading: HDTV: Standards Muddle Clouds Outlook For Wireless Displays Technorati code: XRKDPAZFT879

Strategy Analytics surveyed various emerging wireless video connectivity technologies early in 2007. We concluded at the time that a winning standard was unlikely to emerge within a couple of years. In particular there were doubts over the availability of the newly formed WirelessHD consortium's technology, which, while it clearly represented the most advanced proposed solution, was unproven and some time away from commercial availability. This morning we were lucky enough to be the first to see SiBeam's demonstration of WirelessHD (WiHD) technology in a private suite away from the CES floor. Besides proving that the technology works, the WirelessHD group is expecting a number of manufacturers to announce WiHD products during 2008, and indeed at their CES press conference this morning Toshiba highlighted this as one thing to look out for in future announcements, although no timing was confirmed. SiBeam's demonstration had set up a Blu-ray Disc player to stream an uncompressed 1080p version of Ice Age to a 50" display. It also transmitted a live HD video camcorder to the same display. Picture links are below. SiBeam video camera SiBeam TV Video quality was certainly impressive, and the streaming was unaffected by line of sight interruptions because of the technology's multi-antenna approach. WirelessHD believes there are four key requirements from Hollywood to gain studio support: strong encryption, established copy protocols, uncompressed video, and proximity control. The latter is intended to ensure that content remains within the home, if not within the room itself. For this reason WirelessHD is concentrating on supporting a single AV system around a "coordinating device" (ie a TV), rather than the whole home network. Competing solutions claim that WiHD is some time from market availability, whereas alternatives are available now. PulseLINK in particular is claiming that its first products, in partnership with Westinghouse, will be available from the middle of 2008, with dongles arriving in the fall. The WirelessHD group itself believes the first consumer products will begin to emerge at the end of this year, and that CES 2009 will be a key launchpad. Pricing will of course be critical, and that again is something that is difficult to determine at the moment. But the group expects that manufacturers will be able to target price points set by alternative technologies. In this case we would be looking at a $200 retail price premium for an integrated device, or $300 for a dongle. Whether that can be achieved at product launch remains to be seen. We suspect that the first retail WiHD products are likely to command somewhat higher premiums, but much will depend on the consortium's key members demonstrating large scale commitment to drive volumes as rapidly as possible. As in most things CE, there is certainly no sign yet that any particular technology is going to dominate in the early days of this emerging market. Client Reading: HDTV: Standards Muddle Clouds Outlook For Wireless Displays