The tone of this year's Supercomm is certainly more political than usual, with net neutrality at the center. Otherwise benign speeches and presentations are punctuated with "keep government out of broadband" taglines. All of this is very à propos, of course, as the FCC today is expected to vote on a proposal giving the green light to rules formulation on net neutrality--something the Telcos view as an existential threat. In yesterday's keynote, Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg ripped the idea of net neutrality as "a mistake, pure and simple--an analog idea in a digital universe," and blasted the "Silicon Valley digital elites" (oh God, using "elite" perjoratively is sooo 2008!). Net neutrality threatens to stifle progress, he suggested, noting that "if we can't earn a return on the investments we make in broadband capaicty, our progress toward a connected world will be delayed, if not halted altogether." In what some have referred to as "astroturfing," i.e., creating an artificial grass roots movement, Seidenberg suggested that net neutrality could create a public safety hazard, saying "If we can't differentiate betewen packets, we can't prioritize emergency communications for first responders, telesurgery or heart-monitor readings for digital medicine, or videoconferencing over spam for telecommuters." While it may tug at the heartstrings, the argument is a bit of a red herring. Nothing in the net neutrality discussions occuring now would prevent lawful and reasonable network management. Today's decision should come as no surprise to anyone; the US policy on net neutrality was effectively made last November with the election of a new administration. Twitter: twitter.com/DavidMercer_SA Client Reading: US IPTV Market Sizing: 15.5 Million Subscribers by 2013

Or indeed, vice versa? Much of the discussion around Google's open letter to FCC Chairman Kevin J. Martin on 700MHz spectrum focuses on the impending battle between the former search engine and incumbent telcos. It can only be good news that an alternative competitor to dominant communications providers might emerge with the coming wave of spectrum sales. Whether Google will offer as "open" an alternative as any other potential bidder is debatable. "Open" is a word I normally treat with extreme caution, particularly when it comes to issues relating to network access and technology standards. What seems to be ignored is that Google has put some of its considerable weight behind the cable industry, by way of an investment in Spanish Wifi outfit FON. Time Warner Cable (with 8% of the broadband market) recently set itself apart from its telco rivals by encouraging its broadband customers to use FON's technology and shared broadband access model. Our report on the subject concludes: "Time Warner's acquiescence was a colossal win for FON, and an important milestone for shared broadband access". Google recognises that cable is the quiet foster child of the US telecoms industry. Still seen primarily as TV providers, cable companies in fact led the US industry into the broadband era, still have 54% of the market, and are stealing voice customers at a rapid clip. Also often forgotten is that cable is nearly as ubiquitous as fixed telco, and passes well over 90% of US homes. As the cable industry struggles to find a way into the mobile/wireless business to complete its quad-play offer, Google could prove to be a valuable partner in more ways than one.

A dominant theme at CES is what I call Internet TV (as opposed to IPTV, which tends to refer to managed, operator-delivered services). Microsoft have confirmed their intention to add internet TV to the Xbox 360 (something we've predicted since day one). More significantly, Sony announced that future Bravia TVs will be IP-enabled and are demonstrating their Internet Video Link device, which delivers managed internet video content to TV sets. Deals have been struck so far with AOL, Yahoo! and Grouper. FCC Chairman Kevin J. Martin and Commissioner Tate happened to be getting the demonstration when I dropped by (their schedule took priority, naturally enough...). I imagine there are some interesting debates at regulators right now over what exactly they should be calling this thing that gets TV and video content to the TV without involving the TV "providers" they like to regulate.

Cisco is the other firm to watch. Chairman and CEO John Chambers gave a typically powerful keynote suggesting that his firm would be enabling the transformation of consumer electronics over the next five years to a completely IP-based environment. Ambitious timing, perhaps, but a company with this sort of record and business performance cannot be ignored. Whether Cisco's strategy pans out or not, the transformation of digital devices in this timeframe is certainly assured.