Digital Media Strategies

We cover all of the major media sectors, including advertising, TV and video, music, games and social media.

January 4, 2011 20:01 dmercer

With a couple of hours to go before this year’s technofest in Las Vegas gets under way, I thought I’d issue a friendly warning to the growing number of firms (Intel, Samsung, LG are culprits so far) who seem to be planning to major on “Smart TV” as a key theme of this year’s show. Even before the doors open we already have a quotation from LG Electronics' Baeguen Kang: "Smart TV is an inevitable trend: As people experienced smartphones and tablet PCs, the larger screen on a TV is very attractive for apps and Web content.” So whatever people do on phones and PCs, they will inevitably do on their TVs? If this is an indication of the strategic thinking behind many of the innovations we are about to see unveiled this week, I can scarcely imagine the horrors which await us. When will manufacturers learn? As Google’s disastrous first attempt at connected TV has neatly demonstrated, people do not want the web on TV. How many times do we have to go through this learning process? What people want on TV is video content, and if that’s going to be “smart” it had better deliver some level of intelligence about what video content viewers are likely to enjoy. As I said in our (free to download) 2011 Predictions report, television viewers don’t want a million things to choose from: they want their TV to tell them what they are likely to enjoy. Surprise me, enlighten me! That has value, and if it unexpectedly appears at this year’s show I’ll be the first to label it “smart”. David Mercer


December 30, 2010 22:12 Wu Jia
As the year approaches the end, let’s look back and review some of the impactful events in the digital media business in 2010. Many of those events generated substantial buzz when they just happened, but quickly people forget about them and move their attention on to new things. As a year-end review, this summery is intended to help us relearn these events and gauge their impact on the industry and companies in the future. Events about Google:
    Google claimed it was threatened by cyber attacks originated from China in January. Following the event, Google decided to stop censoring search results in China, which put themselves in a direct confronting position with the Chinese government. As the conflict between Google and the Chinese government deepened, Google had to redirect the traffic on its China site to the Hong Kong homepage. Google had not only lost market share to its competitors in China but also lost plenty of talent due to the uncertainty of its business in China. With only a constrained access to the largest Internet market in terms of users, now Google’s growth solely relies on the expansion to other business lines, such as display advertising, Android platform and TV business.
    Google’s social network initiatives remained unsuccessful. Google Buzz was introduced in the year, but even with the Gmail integration the service has been forgotten by the public. The once highly buzzed Google Wave was terminated by Google, as most people cannot figure out how to use the innovative service. Despite the popularity of Gmail, the dominant Facebook and the growing Twittier and LinkedIn will only make Google’s future in social media gloomier.
    Google unveiled Google TV with its partners Sony, Intel and Logitech. While Google had depicted a splendid picture for the Google TV when it introduced the product, its lack of premium content support and the severe competition from Apple, Microsoft and Amazon already led many to question the feasibility of the product. Sony’s slash on the price in the holiday season for Google TV-embedded TVs magnified the concerns on the product’s outlook. 2011 will be the key year for Google TV’s success. And if Google could build healthy relationship with Hollywood studios for the platform, it would still gain some ground in the new TV business.
Events about Apple:
    Apple’s introduction of iPad has clearly changed many aspects of digital media consumption. Publishing and news industry has found a new and more versatile content distribution platform, which seems could further offset the decline of traditional revenue streams. With a bigger screen compared to smart phones, iPad is a better device for mobile video consumption. Movie studios and pay TV companies started to put strong focus on distributing their content through iPads. We expect the iPad to continue its robust growth in the next year, along with its importance to premium content distribution.
    Games have always been top-selling apps in Apple’s app store. The introduction of Game Center on iPhones and iPads makes Apple a formidable player in the social game distribution business. Going forward, the gaming piece will continue to augment the appeal of Apple’s platform.
Events about others:
    Microsoft’s Kinect has shown signs of good reception in the holiday season. With the tremendous investment put in the project, it finally delivered quality gaming experience to casual gamers, dwarfing Wii’s motion censor device. Although Xbox only accounts for a relatively small portion of Microsoft’s total revenue, the success of the device could pave the way for its home entertainment strategy if implemented correctly. The solid experience of Kinect also counters the argument that Microsoft has lost the innovation capability. In addition, Microsoft struck a deal with ESPN to provide ESPN programs to Xbox Live users.
    Netflix keeps up its growth and now has 16 million subscription members. Given its expansion to other devices and other countries, we expect the service to maintain the growth momentum in the coming year. On the other hand, Hulu also adopted a paid revenue model with the introduction of Hulu Plus. But given the limited content catalog, Hulu Plus faces challenges to grow its paid users.
    Facebook keeps the ball rolling by introducing a number of new features and services on the platform. Meanwhile, social games gained attraction with their virtual currency revenue model. Games from Zynga and Playdom have gained millions of users, most of which are based on social networks. As the ad rates on social networks remain low, the social gaming business could help Facebook break through its profitability challenge. And the social gaming companies will surely benefit from the secular growth of social networks.

December 22, 2010 16:12 dmercer

We don’t do this very often folks, but as a seasonal gift we have made our 2011 Digital Home Predictions report available to everyone, whether a Strategy Analytics client or not. You can download the full report here. A lot of the talk at the moment is about Google’s troubles with its TV offer: there will be little to see at CES after all, much to the annoyance of Google’s many partners no doubt. But this setback should not be seen as a a sign of general malaise in the connected TV industry: Apple has just reported that its TV solution is finally gaining some traction, and we expect continued progress from other key players in the rollout of internet TV to the big screen during 2011. We may even see Facebook moving into this space. Headline number of the year will be tablet revenues, which we predict will exceed netbooks. We also think Apple needs to revamp iTunes to take account of the connected device era, and Nintendo may have to take the plunge and launch the successor to the Wii. We’ll see further innovations in the TV control arena, with touchscreens, phone apps and motion control all featuring more widely. But 3DTV is likely to see only slow progress: sure, people will be buying 3D-enabled sets, but less than 20% will be watching 3D content on them. And one more stat to whet your appetite: more than one billion people worldwide will be using social networks for the first time during 2011. And since you are one of them, please go ahead and read the full report, and any comments and feedback are always appreciated. Best wishes for a peaceful holiday season. David Mercer Client Reading: Profiling the Connected Media Consumer - UK Add to Technorati Favorites


December 13, 2010 18:12 Martin Olausson
We hate to say I told you so but as we wrote when Sky Songs was launched little over a year ago, this lacklustre venture into online music was unlikely to succeed from the start.   Originally Sky Songs offered access to four million tracks for download and unlimited streaming in two versions, £6.49 per month (1 £6.49 album or 10 songs per month + unlimited streaming) or £7.99 per month (1 £7.99 album or 15 songs per month + unlimited streaming). In an attempt to boost subscriber uptake, Sky later slashed the price to £5 per month but still failed to gather much interest from consumers. In a statement, Sky Songs said that "regrettably we've not been able to reach a large enough customer base in order for the service to continue". As we suggested in our original assessment of Sky Songs, this uncharacteristically lackluster service from Sky added little of value to consumers and was doomed to fail. Martin  Client Reading: Digital Media Index: Q3 2010

December 8, 2010 16:12 Wu Jia
A lot of the analysts that follow Google have been recently focusing on Google’s intention to acquire Groupon, an Internet collective purchasing site. While the talk between Google and Groupon has stalled with Google’s bid being rejected, the Internet search giant still managed to do some shopping for the holiday season. It has grabbed Widevine for an undisclosed amount, a Digital Management Rights (DRM) solution provider which has been on Strategy Analytics radar for a long time. As DRM business isn’t something that is interesting to consumer media, the discussion on media about this acquisition is far less than that about the Groupon deal. But as important as Widevine’s role in the premium content distribution value chain, this acquisition isn’t just discretionary spending for Google and it demonstrates Google’s dedication to be involved in the premium video content business. Widevine explains itself to be capable of doing three things: Multiplatform DRM, Enabling TV Everywhere and video optimization. These are all of great importance for Google in relations to premium video business. YouTube has been growing as the bellwether in the user generated content (UCG) business in terms of video views, while the profitability issue of UGC is still something that YouTube needs to overcome. With the DRM capability provided by Widevine, YouTube is more likely to obtain serious premium content which could markedly beef up the money-generating capability of the popular web video site. And given Widevine’s credibility for helping pretect content for Hollywood studios, it makes studios more eased to partner with Google in the video business, which has been regarded as the major disruptor for the traditional media businesses. The more premium content availability will also enhance Google TV’s competitiveness in the market, which has been reported having trouble to get deals with major Hollywood studios and being forced to cut the price for the new Google TV-embedded gadgets. Moreover, Widevine’s know-how in delivering video content to multiple platforms will benefit its Android system as well, by enabling the Android phones more securely and easily getting access to premium videos. While these implications are all positive, the acquisition of Widevine is far from a home-run for Google to succeed in the premium video distribution business. Significant challenges lie ahead that seem quite unaddressable for Google in the short term. From a revenue perspective, Google is a advertising driven company that controls online content distribution and ad distribution. Small online content creators are in a weak position to negotiate ad revenue terms with Google, whereas Hollywood studios mandate a close supervision on their ad operations. Even Hulu, the joint venture by the three major networks, has to compromise to the networks’ own sales operation when it comes to premium ad inventory sales and management. The fight over control of ad operation will be a key obstacle for Google and Hollywood to overcome before a long-term solid partnership being established. In addition, some analysts speculate that Google might be planning to offer Widevine service for free to content providers. This idea is pretty in line with Google’s Everything-free strategy, from online search to smartphone to TV strategy. It clearly will lure many content providers at least to try to start relationship with Google and potentially will shake up the entire industry. But such a drastic shake-up could result in backlash from industry incumbents and arouse anti-competition concerns. It would also be expected for Google to introduce a Google-branded video store or service in the future, armoring the tech giant in the battle with Apple, Amazon and Netflix. -Jia Wu

December 8, 2010 16:12 dmercer
At 4.30 yesterday afternoon I wished Anthony Rose well for 2011. He agree it was going to be an exciting time, as YouView moves into the launch phase, and gave no indication that within a few hours he would be stepping down from his high profile CTO role. Rose had just given another presentation on the progress of YouView, the broadband TV joint venture "spearheaded" by the BBC. As YouView's figurehead Rose, in a short time, had become a star attraction on the conference circuit, and I dare say a fair proportion of the packed audience (by no means just from the UK) at Informa's OTT TV World Forum were there primarily to listen to his latest update on the project's progress. In a one-to-one discussion after the panel, I had been asking Rose about the potential compatibility between the YouView system and hbbtv, the broadband TV standard being deployed in Germany and elsewhere in Europe. I'll bring more on this subject at another time, together with the views of hbbtv itself. During the Q&A one or two people noted the challenges of getting YouView to publish its guidance documents in a timely fashion. One questioner noted that he had learnt more about YouView in ten minutes of listening to Anthony than from reading hundreds of pages of documentation. Rose admitted that keeping the project on schedule, as well as meeting the information demands of multiple external stakeholders, had proved challenging. Today's news stories are suggesting that Rose was not considered capable of managing YouView as it moves towards the commercial deployment phase. He will stay on in "an advisory role", but this hardly smacks of a vote of confidence. Advice is one thing: the responsibility for taking decisions will clearly rest on new shoulders. YouView is inevitably putting a gloss on the development, which will come as a shock to many in the IPTV industry. Management turmoil is rarely a good thing, so if YouView is to meet its ambitious mid-2011 launch target it needs to rally the troops and have its new managers get the word out that they understand and can meet the challenges ahead, without losing the vision which Anthony brought to the project. Many YouView doubters remain; the battle with Sky and Virgin rumbles on, and a lot more water will flow under the bridge before the next phase in television's evolution becomes a commercial reality. Client Reading: Profiling the Connected Media Consumer - UK Add to Technorati Favorites

December 1, 2010 13:12 dmercer
As I prepare to chair a panel discussion on television advertising at this week’s Future TV Advertising conference, I thought I would dip into our consumer surveys to see what people are telling us about their attitudes towards advertising. For reference, our survey was based on a weighted sample of 2803 online respondents across France, Germany, Italy and the UK, and was fielded between July and September 2010. One of the issues often discussed at such conferences is the degree to which viewers enjoy advertising on television. Our survey found that only 7% of Europeans strongly agree that they “enjoy watching and listening to well produced and informative commercials on television”, and another 26% somewhat agree. But 23% strongly disagree that they enjoy watching commercials, and another 16% somewhat disagree. This gives a negative “balance” of -6% overall on the question of how much people say they enjoy watching TV ads; you are three times more likely to find someone who dislikes TV ads as someone who really enjoys them. The irony is that Europeans do appreciate that advertising plays an important role, even if they don’t like watching the ads. 51% somewhat or strongly agree with the statement that “advertising plays a useful role since it pays for the cost of providing entertainment”; only 31% disagree. There is even stronger agreement for the idea that all television should be “free” at the point of consumption: 65% of people somewhat or strongly agree with the statement “No one should have to pay for television; all programmes, including all sports and movies, should be available to everyone and supported by advertisements or public funding”. Only 24% disagreed with the idea that all television should be free. Not surprisingly (given that pay TV is most successful in the UK) the strongest support for this idea came from viewers in continental Europe, with 72% of French respondents in agreement. UK respondents are markedly different in their atttitudes towards free TV: 49% agree it should be free, but 32% disagree, giving a net balance of only 17%, compared to 58% in France. We found similar love-hate attitudes towards advertising in online television. People are very resistant to the idea that they could pay in order to avoid advertisements, but they also don’t like the fact that they have to watch adverts before an online TV show starts, and they think there are too many short adverts in online video content. So the challenge for advertisers appears to be the same as it ever was: getting a message across and engaging with viewers who are generally resistant to commercially motivated communications. Whether technology and innovation can help ease that process over the years ahead remains to be seen. Client Reading: Global Advertising Market Forecast Add to Technorati Favorites

November 23, 2010 20:11 Wu Jia
Online advertising has become an old-fashioned category among all types of Internet businesses. The growth, however, is not going to stagnate anytime soon. According to Strategy Analytics recent published Online Advertising Index, Google, the bellwether of online ad business, is now 43% of the industry globally in Q3 2010. And its growth rate is like that of any emerging country in the world. Given its growth momentum in mobile and display ads, we believe in the near future that the online ad business is half Google, half the others. In the US, Yahoo and Microsoft are not doing much to challenge Google's position, with their quarterly revenue growth far slower than Google's. AOL is on the way to reinvent itself, or its falling trend will continue until the last day of the business. Outside the US, we are seeing strong expansion from Asian and European companies. Baidu has been beefing up its revenues rapidly for years, and its ad revenue has exceeded that of AOL in Q3. If we look at the search ad market, Baidu is now the second largest company only on the heels of Google, albeit it's still very distant from Google's almost $4 billion quarterly search revenue. Axel Springer is also showing a remarkable surge in Europe, with its online revenue growing by 81% in the quarter over the same quarter last year. Its investment in online media across Europe is bearing fruit right now. In addition, Korea's NHN and Norway's Schibsted are both catching up in the online ad business. The global online ad market is on the track to finish up $65 billion dollar by the end of this year. We believe the story of half Google, half the others in the online ad market will continue. Client Reading: Online Advertising Index Q3 2010

October 18, 2010 19:10 Martin Olausson
Social networks, such as Facebook, MySpace and Twitter, which used to be a nascent Internet phenomenon only a few years ago, have now become an indispensable element for many of us in our daily lives. Accessing social networks and sharing information has quickly become one of the most important online activities for many Internet users around the world. With more than 500 million users globally, Facebook, the largest social network in the world, would be the third largest country by population, on the heels of India and China. And as a communication tool, social networks are already starting to replace or complement many of our existing online communication applications, such as email, instant messaging and news.   However, our just published report, “Global Social Network Market Forecast”, finds that there are significant regional differences in the uptake of different social networks as well as in business models for how social networks are monetized. Less than 40% of Internet users in Asia were regular social network users at the end of 2009 compared to approximately 60% in North America and Western Europe. Advertising remains the most widely recognized revenue model for social networks, despite that the highly commoditized social network ad inventory means that most social networks can only charge advertisers a fraction of the price other online publishers charges. Social games feed social networks with a cut of their virtual items sales, and social networks such as e.g. LinkedIn have for many years been successful at charging for a premium tier service, where recruiters and job-seekers can utilize the social network’s premium functions to reach their goals of finding a candidate or a new job opportunity. There are also different revenue models for monetizing social networks emerging in different regions. Whereas revenues from sales of virtual items are estimated to only represent around 9% of total social network revenues in North America this year, it is expected to represent about 22% of revenues in the Asian market. And while advertising has been and will continue to be the main revenue source for most social networks, revenues from selling virtual items and social network credits will likely ramp up more rapidly in Asia than in the Western World. Social networks, such as Tencent and Cyworld in Asia, already generate significant revenues by selling avatar accessories and virtual gifts. Nevertheless, based on the successful experience of these companies, we expect to see other social networks, both in Asia and in the Western World, to adopt the virtual items business model for gaining incremental revenues going forward. As the Asian Internet market continues to grow at breakneck speed, we projects that this region will represent the greatest growth opportunity for social networks over the next five years. Whereas Facebook has conquered most places in the Western World, it has struggled to gain traction in many Asian markets. We believe Facebook now needs to increase its focus and commitment to the important and rapidly growing Asian market if it wants to remain the world’s leading social network five years from now.

GLOBAL SOCIAL NETWORK USERS BY REGION, 2010 VS. 2015

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Client Reading: Global Social Network Forecast


October 13, 2010 17:10 dmercer
I was speaking on the panel at the OTT 'mashup' eventat Ogilvy's London Docklands headquarters last night, alongside Turner Broadcasting's Casey Harwood and Anthony Rose, CTO at the BBC's Canvas (now YouView) project, amongst others. As a first-time masher-up and intrigued at the possibilities for the format, the event turned out to be organised along relatively familiar panel debate lines. Casey and I began with introductory comments, and were followed by critiques from the other contributors. The session was then opened up to debate, including audience questions. All the time, running on a display behind us, was a Twitter feed of comments from participants in the twittersphere, as well, presumably, as a few of the 100 or so people who joined us in the traditional, physical fashion. The only problem was that the panelists had to turn away from the audience to see if any particularly fascinating Tweets had appeared, and if they ever did, it was noticeable that the physical audience's attention would be diverted to the ominous gap between the panelists and away from the speakers. The one recommendation I would make is that questions and comments from the virtual audience could have been added to the debate; it did rather feel at times as though we were being Tweeted at without right of reply. Nevertheless it was an interesting evening and I hope the audience found the debate valuable. my own contribution centered on a few relevant datapoints from our recent survey of UK TV and online TV viewers. In particular I referenced the fact that 13% of UK people are currently watching TV on the internet at least on a weekly basis. So we needed to bear in mind that the OTT phenomenon is still restricted to a relatively small proportion of the population, and most of that activity is taking place on the PC. The number of people accessing web TV on their TV set is of course even smaller: 6% of people are connecting a PC to a TV, and 4% now claim to use a dedicated internet TV device. Having said that, our work with early connected TV adopters within our Digital Home Observatory suggests that television behaviour can change rapidly once viewers have access to some of these emerging technologies. This segment is motivated by a desire for greater viewing flexibility and access to preferred content. They also still see weaknesses in current connected TV solutions, especially in the field of control devices and interfaces. The panel also touched on the issue of business models, and in response to the question of how things might look in three years I replied that the basic alternatives would not change greatly: television in the UK will still be funded by a combination of public service licence fees, advertising and customer payment of one sort or another. The mix may change slightly, and we may see greater variety in pay business models. But it’s important to remember that customers are very sensitive to their monthly bills. The impression is often given, especially by new entrants, that new payment models can somehow overcome consumer resistance to the size of the overall television bill. The reality is that 80% of UK customers check their bank statements every month, and a similar proportion prefer predictability in their monthly payments. 69% would agree to pay only for the shows they watch, but only if it reduced the overall monthly bill. All in all I agreed with Anthony Rose’s comment that too little emphasis in connected TV discussions has been put on live, scheduled television. The assumption seems to be that this traditional model will break down rapidly as various on-demand options become available, but this trend is likely to happen only slowly over a long period of time. Even for early adopters, scheduled broadcasting remains an important part of the overall mix. The overall message is one of increased fragmentation of delivery models and audiences. Client Reading: Profiling the Connected Media Consumer - UK Add to Technorati Favorites