Digital Media Strategies

We cover all of the major media sectors, including advertising, TV and video, music, games and social media.

June 30, 2009 16:06 dmercer
So far we have not been disappointed at the IEA/Marketforce's Future of Broadcasting conference, even though the precise questions I suggested have not been addressed. We did, as expected, have to suffer the well-worn cliché, courtesy of Channel Four’s Anne Bulford, that the UK has the “best broadcasting” in the world. If somebody could offer a quantitative measure to prove this I might start to believe it. The battlelines have, as usual, been drawn between Sky on the one hand, and everyone else on the other, although Michael Grade, Chairman of ITV, in which Sky is a major shareholder, did a good job of supporting Sky’s view that there is too much regulation in broadcasting in general. As Grade said, “it’s not as though broadcasting is a life-threatening industry, like air travel or drugs”. Grade described the process involved in getting business deals done as a “nightmare involving years of lobbying”, because of the grip Parliament has on the broadcasting industry. Sky, in the form of COO Mike Darcey, has done its usual excellent job of standing up to the forces lined up against it (as it sees it). The key question, from Ofcom’s Peter Philips in the audience, was “why should Sky not be regulated like the telecoms industry?”. Darcey’s response: “because, unlike Sky, BT did not build its own network – the government did”. In that response lies the nub of the regulatory and competition issue in the UK and in many other markets around the world. Should content be split from the network? Ofcom has indicated clearly that it does not see this as an appropriate solution, instead preferring to concentrate on the issue of the rates at which Sky wholesales its channels to other service providers. Darcey today indicated clearly that it would take Ofcom to court if it went ahead with proposals to price-regulate Sky’s wholesale business. At the same time, Sky recommends that competitors, such as ITV and Channels 4 and 5, consider becoming pay TV providers as advertising revenues plummet. But competitors have already failed at this in the UK: first, Channel Four’s abandoned its premium movie service; and now Setanta has had to withdraw its pay sports channels. With a few minor exceptions (including adult content) there are no successful pay TV competitors to Sky in the UK. Sky’s success has been built on its control of network, technology platform and content. Unless another firm is prepared to make a similar investment, or content is forcibly split from the network, it is unlikely that a serious alternative will emerge. Twitter: twitter.com/DavidMercer_SA Client Reading: Digital Media Devices Global Market Report Add to Technorati Favorites

June 29, 2009 10:06 dmercer
Recent research from renowned polling firm Harris Interactive has put the cat among the Blu-ray pigeons by claiming that 11% of US homes now own an HD-DVD (yes, HD-DVD) player, compared to 7% which own a Blu-ray player. If true this would be great, if inexplicable, news to Toshiba, which, as its major proponent, abandoned HD-DVD technology more than a year ago after Warner famously jumped ship to join the Blu-ray camp. I doubt that even Toshiba will give much credence to the Harris research, however much it would love to. Quite where the 12 million HD-DVD players supposedly connected to American TV sets have come from is unexplained in the Harris survey: presumably some mystery factory in the Chinese hinterland has been churning them out and shipping them via newly discovered shipping routes (past the melting icebergs north of Russia, perhaps) and unbeknownst to the rest of the world. There is a serious message from these clearly erroneous results, however (for the record, much less than 1% of US homes currently have an HD-DVD device of any description, and that percentage is falling). They once again demonstrate how difficult it is to get accurate answers about technology from consumer surveys. Years ago, before HDTV sets or services had been launched in Europe, we used to include questions about HDTV ownership and interest in our user surveys, and without fail we found at least a few percentage of people who thought, for whatever reason, that they already owned and were watching HDTV. And why should we blame consumers for the confusion? Even as someone who follows the industry on a day-to-day basis, I try to keep my “ordinary consumer” hat on stand-by. Listening in on discussions between salesmen and customers on the retail floor is always an eye-opener, and I symphathise with both sides. Why should either customers or shop staff be expected to learn the complex language of the technology industry? If the store is demonstrating an HD-capable TV alongside an upscaling DVD player, the images could look pretty good, and why would I, as an ordinary customer, not want to describe what I’ve seen as “HD DVD”? So a question in a survey which asks about “HD DVD players” will inevitably be interpreted in many different ways. I suspect there are even Blu-ray Disc player owners who, if asked in the right (or wrong) way, would say they owned an “HD DVD player”. The thing play “DVDs”, and it plays in high definition. Seems to make sense to me… It’s not as if most people had ever even heard of HD-DVD (the Toshiba standard). In spite of the hype surrounding the whole standards war within the technology industry, I believe it failed to interest or concern the majority of the population. So why should they have a problem using the same term however they please? So the real problem for the Blu-ray camp is not the numbers from the Harris survey – everyone knows they are simply wrong. It is the fact that consumers thought they were saying the right thing, and are clearly thoroughly confused by the whole world of HDTV, discs, formats, standards and terminology. It’s time to stop blaming consumers for being confused simply because Blu-ray still hasn’t got its message across effectively. Twitter: twitter.com/DavidMercer_SA Client Reading: Digital Media Devices Global Market Report Add to Technorati Favorites

June 25, 2009 19:06 dmercer
We’ve just completed the latest phase (in the US) in our user surveys looking at multiplay services like broadband, digital TV and voice. A key question at the moment is of course how householders will make economies as incomes contract. Before the results were in we heard many suggestions that mobile services were the last thing people would cut, and that if anything had to go it would be broadband or digital TV. After all, can’t people watch TV on the Internet for nothing these days? So we were somewhat surprised to see more or less the opposite results. When asked how they would reduce spending, out of five alternative services (broadband, digital TV, fixed voice, mobile voice and mobile data) 48% of US respondents said they would drop mobile data completely, compared to 21% opting for fixed voice and 19% saying they would drop mobile voice. 21% said they would drop digital TV altogether, and only 10% said they would drop broadband. To be fair, we also asked whether people would scale back to a lower tier, and on this question digital TV looks likely to suffer most, with 41% saying they would choose this option. Clearly many people feel they are paying too much for pay TV services they don’t get value from. But overall, two thirds of people say they would leave their current broadband deal unchanged. So poor old, unsexy broadband, without the appeal of all those fancy handheld iDevices, turns out to be the one service people would be least likely to do without. Broadband it seems really has become an essential utility. Twitter: twitter.com/DavidMercer_SA Further Reading: 48% of Americans Would Drop Mobile Data Service Completely Add to Technorati Favorites

June 22, 2009 17:06 dmercer
I’ll be heading to London’s Le Meridien hotel in Piccadilly next week to hear some of the UK’s top media decision makers debate the future of broadcasting; hence the event’s name: the Future of Broadcasting conference, courtesy of the IEA (Institute of Economic Affairs) and MarketForce . The first morning’s panel alone should be worth the admission fee. There can’t be many occasions when top execs at the BBC (Caroline Thomson), ITV (Michael Grade), Five (Dawn Airey) and BSkyB (Mike Darcey) have gathered together around the same table. Indeed, there might be a few hints at anti-trust activity if they did it too often, given that they represent more or less the entire UK television industry, with the primary and unfortunate exception of Channel Four – they will be appearing separately in the following session, but I don’t suppose we should read too much into that. I just hope the panel’s chairman manages to get these senior figures to avoid the usual platitudes about the strength of the UK broadcast industry, British TV being the best in the world and the impact of the Digital Britain report, and address the awkward issues, such as: - Why does the BBC need so much money from licence fee payers? - Is Sky’s domination of the UK pay TV market a good thing for British broadcasting? - Can ITV survive without being acquired by a major overseas media firm? Given that there are only 20 minutes for discussion this seems unlikely, but we live in hope. In any case, it looks like a fascinating couple of days and I’ll be reporting back whether or not the key questions are answered. Twitter: twitter.com/DavidMercer_SA Client Reading: Global Digital Media Growth Slows to 2.7% in Q4 2008 Add to Technorati Favorites

June 18, 2009 18:06 dmercer
Countries, and especially their politicans, get surprisingly animated when global rankings of nations are released. We’ve tried to stir things up a little more by releasing our own version, based on penetration of broadband households. Perhaps it’s a sign that broadband grew out of the communications industry, which generally sees individual people as its primary customers (putting business users to one side for a moment), that households can be ignored as a key metric. Certainly in the world of mobile communications it makes sense to talk about a mobile phone account being attached to an individual user. But broadband is different. Even though many individuals clearly make use of broadband to connect to the internet, the business of broadband is based on selling service to the household as the unit of demand, whether cable, telco or other emerging fixed line provider such as fibre. Once a household is a customer of a broadband service, that household is, generally speaking, free to allow any of its members to use that service at no additional fee. Indeed, the service provider may be unaware of how many users are accessing broadband over any given period of time. Most may put a limit on the number of devices able to access the service (via a wireless LAN or other technologies), but there is no good way to tie that limitation to the number of users sharing those devices. For these reasons we have always used the household, rather than the user, as a key metric when determining the potential for broadband service adoption. That’s not to say that the number of users is not important in other respects, and we track that as well. But the way the broadband business is currently set up (and it doesn’t seem likely to change any time soon) the household is the more important measure. The household is also the target (in the sense of offering universal, high speed access) for the many broadband public policies being developed around the world (see our recent discussion of Australia). So when we look at the percentage of total households in any given country in which broadband is available (ie paid for and used), we find, not surprisingly, that Asia-Pacific countries lead the way, with Korea out in front, as it has been for many years. At the end of last year 95% of Korean households took broadband service, compared to 88% in Singapore and 81% in Hong Kong. But one or two European countries are edging towards the top of the list, led by the Netherlands (85%) and Denmark (82%). It’s not until you reach number 20 (out of a total of 57 countries covered in our research), that the US appears, with household penetration of 60%. Even then, the US is ahead of other “advanced” economies such as Germany (58%), Spain (57%) and Italy (51%). And China, for all the talk of its emerging leadership in all things tech, ranks at number 43 with 21% household penetration. The rural population in China is clearly still way behind leading economies in adoption of PCs and internet access. Here’s the complete ranking: Strategy Analytics: Global Broadband Household Penetration Rankings (2008) 1 South Korea 95% 2 Singapore 88% 3 Netherlands 85% 4 Denmark 82% 5 Taiwan 81% 6 Hong Kong 81% 7 Israel 77% 8 Switzerland 76% 9 Canada 76% 10 Norway 75% 11 Australia 72% 12 Finland 69% 13 France 68% 14 United Kingdom 67% 15 United Arab Em. 65% 16 Japan 64% 17 Sweden 63% 18 Estonia 62% 19 Belgium 62% 20 USA 60% 21 Slovenia 58% 22 Germany 58% 23 Ireland 58% 24 Spain 57% 25 New Zealand 57% 26 Lithuania 51% 27 Italy 51% 28 Austria 50% 29 Portugal 40% 30 Greece 39% 31 Turkey 37% 32 Hungary 34% 33 Slovakia 33% 34Poland 32% 35 Argentina 31% 36 Romania 31% 37 Latvia 30% 38 Czech Republic 28% 39 Mexico 28% 40 Chile 27% 41 Croatia 23% 42 China 21% 43 Malaysia 21% 44Venezuela 17% 45 Brazil 17% 46 Russia 14% 47 Bulgaria 13% 48 Peru 11% 49 Saudi Arabia 7% 50 Thailand 7% 51 Vietnam 7% 52 Philippines 5% 53 Albania 5% 54 Ukraine 4% 55 Egypt 3% 56 India 2% 57 Indonesia 1% Source: Strategy Analytics’ Multiplay Market Dynamics service, June 2009 Twitter: twitter.com/DavidMercer_SA Client Reading: Sputnik Moment: The Call for a National Broadband Policy Asia Pacific Broadband Forecast: 1H09 Add to Technorati Favorites

June 12, 2009 18:06 dmercer
We met with Xbox executives in London yesterday for a post-E3 briefing. Since few of us had been to E3 in person (relying instead on dodgy video streams) it was a valuable opportunity to make sure we hadn’t missed any of the key messages. As far as the EMEA business is concerned, Microsoft is putting forward a positive story for the 360 in 2009, relative to other console platforms. Without revealing the numbers, according to Microsoft the 360 continues to perform well in a challenging market environment. In general it seems that demand for Nintendo’s Wii console continues to fall, and there is some evidence that Wii owners are beginning to move to the competing systems as they grow bored with the Wii’s novelty factor. Apart from seeing video demonstrations of Natal, the new user control platform, we were also treated to a work-in-progress demo of the recently announced Sky-on-Xbox service. Many details have still to be finalised, and the demo did not use live internet connectivity but was stored locally. Nevertheless, it was clear that Sky Player and Sky TV could become an extremely attractive and easy-to-use service within the Xbox NXE interface. Within the Sky “portal”, viewers will flick around the various Sky options with the standard Xbox controller, using up/down and left/right movements to navigate the horizontal/vertical pathways. One vertical could be a selection of streamed Sky channels (News, Sports News, Arts etc), including mini windows showing live TV. Another vertical might take the viewer through various Sky Player on-demand options – movies, sports, TV shows etc. I can also easily imagine that something similar to the Sky+ PVR functionality will be added at some point, using the Xbox hard drive for storage. We also discussed the impending arrival of instant-on VOD and 1080p content. Contrary to my previous comments, it now seems that 1080p streaming will be available at speeds as low as 6Mbps, in contrast to the 10Mbps we were originally told. The uncertainty over this issue suggests that there is still a fair amount of work to be done before these services are launched commercially. But there is no question that, as the current generation of consoles hits maturity with the games audience they will add ever more capability as non-gaming devices in order to sustain the life cycle to the maximum. It will be very interesting to see how Sky and Xbox develop the marketing and positioning of the 360 console as the video and television services are rolled out later this year. Twitter: twitter.com/DavidMercer_SA Client Reading: Global Digital Media Growth Slows to 2.7% in Q4 2008 Add to Technorati Favorites

June 9, 2009 17:06 dmercer
Most countries face a challenge making fast broadband services available to every one of their most far-flung citizens, but the obstacles for Australia, with its vast tracts of sparsely populated territory, must be more testing than in most other parts of the planet. In fact, after a slow start Australia has done a pretty good job in recent years of getting basic broadband to the majority of its population. From a penetration rate of less than 10% in 2003, nearly three quarters of homes had acquired broadband by the end of last year, higher than both the US (60%) and Western Europe (61%). Not content with this success, the Australian government recently announced a policy to make fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) services available to 90% of Australian homes over the next decade. These services will offer 100Mbps broadband, with the potential to upgrade to 1Gbps over time (see my post on Korea’s announcement of 1Gbps services). Our recent report, “Australia's AU$43 Billion National Broadband Network: Will It Play In Alice Springs?” , predicts that take-up of FTTH will reach 53% by 2020, when 5.2 million homes will be using 100Mbps or faster broadband. The AU$43bn investment by the Australian government seems like a huge bet at a time when the global economy is on its knees. But in our view it is also a forward-looking and timely statement of intent that Australia will not allow its communications networks to hinder the potential for new services and businesses over the coming decades. Twitter: twitter.com/DavidMercer_SA Client Reading: Sputnik Moment: The Call for a National Broadband Policy Asia Pacific Broadband Forecast: 1H09 Add to Technorati Favorites

June 3, 2009 09:06 dmercer
Ever since the launch of Xbox 360 there has been speculation that Microsoft would eventually add a Blu-ray drive to the system. We have argued strongly against these rumours. At E3 yesterday Microsoft finally laid its cards on the table: from this autumn it will offer instant-play 1080p content to Xbox 360 users. With a strong nudge in the direction of Blu-ray, the press release says “No discs, no waiting for downloads and no delays”. Xbox Live has offered HD content for some time, but only in 720p. Microsoft appears to have abandoned its previous line of defence, that consumers could not tell the difference between 720p and 1080p. The upgrade to 1080p, and the promise of instant access, finally positions the Xbox 360 as a serious video alternative to Blu-ray Disc-based systems, ie the PS3. Viewers will be able to pause, fast forward and rewind on-demand video content. Microsoft is re-encoding video content, has re-built the technology stack, and is introducing multi-bit-rate encoding and buffering support in order to make these advanced features available. Microsoft has also said that all movies will support shared viewing, so that viewers in different locations can watch the same content and share messages at the same time. The business models behind such applications remain to be determined. Content owners will be able to explore the value of encouraging such social networking activities. We’ve been predicting the 1080p move for some time, while at the same time highlighting the challenges for such services. The Xbox Live network may be up to the task, but the individual user experience will inevitably hinge on the speed and reliability of broadband access. Microsoft originally told us users would need a minimum access speed of 10Mbps, but appears to have reduced that requirement to 8Mbps. This is clearly a significant limitation to the reach of the 1080p service; broadband speeds are rising steadily, but they vary significantly in each country. It also seems likely that heavy users of 1080p streaming may soon encounter the data download limits set by their broadband service provider, as I pointed out when the Sky-over-Xbox service was launched. In spite of these concerns, it is clear that Microsoft continues to extend the boundaries of the traditional games console model towards the all-round home entertainment platform always promised by the Xbox 360. All we need now is for broadband service to catch up with the potential offered by these systems. Twitter: twitter.com/DavidMercer_SA Client Reading: Global Digital Media Growth Slows to 2.7% in Q4 2008 Add to Technorati Favorites