Strategy Analytics has been designing and analysing large scale consumer surveys for many years. Some of this work has been used by our industry analysts to support their regular market and competition tracking. We have also conducted frequent consumer surveys to support proprietary project and consulting activities.

Recognising that every client has its own particular set of interests, questions and perspectives, we have now opened up some of the results of these surveys to our client base via a powerful new web-based interface and analysis tool. The ConsumerMetrix service collates the results of three years’ worth of survey results, comprising more than 15000 online consumer interviews and offering millions of unique datapoints. Survey results are easily selected and instantly available according to the needs of the individual user, and can be downloaded in Excel and Powerpoint format for incorporation into customers’ own reports.

ConsumerMetrix surveys cover the US, France, Germany, Italy and the UK. Additional international market coverage, including Canada, Spain, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Russia, the Nordic region, Poland, Hungary, Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia, is available at the request of subscribers.

Subscribers can use ConsumerMetrix to assess survey data about the world’s leading technology and service provider brands and who their current and potential customers are.

ConsumerMetrix: Major Technology Brands

Acer, Apple, Asus, Compaq, Dell, Emachines, Facebook, Gateway, Grundig, HP, HTC, JVC, LG, LinkedIn, Motorola, MySpace, Nokia, Packard Bell, Panasonic, Philips, RIM/Blackberry, Samsung, Sanyo, Sharp, Sony, SonyEricsson, Toshiba, Twitter, Vizio, Youtube

ConsumerMetrix: Major Service Provider Brands

3, AT&T/Bell South/Cingular, Bouyges Telecom, BT, Comcast, DirecTV, Dish, E-Plus, Free, Kabel Deutschland, Mediaset PremiumNeuf Cegetel, O2, Orange, SFR, Sky, Sprint/Nextel, TalkTalk, Telecom Italia, T-Home, TIM, Time Warner Cable, T-Mobile, United Internet, Verizon/Alltel, Virgin Media, Virgin Mobile, Vodafone/Arcor, WIND

 

ConsumerMetrix is designed to answer key tactical, consumer-facing questions like:

·         How many people plan to buy an Xbox 360 or PS3 during the next 12 months?

·         How do nations vary in usage of digital video recorders?

·         How do the profiles of Samsung and Sony customers compare?

·         Which television service providers have the highest satisfaction ratings?

·         Which brands are people most likely to choose when they next purchase a TV, PC or mobile phone?

·         How do the demographics of Apple v. PC owners compare?

·         How many people are using the major OTT video services and which devices are they watching them on?

·         How much do consumers expect to pay for iPads or other tablets?

·         How useful do consumers find TV mobile phone apps?

·         Which consumers are using multiscreen TV?

·         How many Sky Digital customers plan to drop the service during the coming 12 months?

 

ConsumerMetrix covers a wide range of themes and technologies related to the digital consumer, television, video and media sectors. The outline is presented below:

 

ConsumerMetrix Survey Themes

ConsumerMetrix Product Segmentation

•          Attitudes to payment and finance •          Household device ownership •          Personal device usage •          Device purchase intentions •          Device price expectations •          Brand ownership •          Brand purchase intentions and preferences •          Service provider customers •          TV, Fixed Broadband, Mobile Broadband, Mobile phone, Home phone •          Broadband and television access technologies •          Television service fees and satisfaction •          Managed home services •          3D television and video •          Advanced television services and features: availability, usage, perceived value and interest •          Television service: propensity to churn •          Future television concepts •          Online television and video services and applications •          Connected video device usage •          Social networking users and brands

•          Consumer Devices: Connected TV, HDTV, 3DTV, LCD/plasma TV, Blu-ray, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PS Vita, Home cinema, Home computer (desktop, portable, PC, Mac), Handheld games (PSP, Nintendo), Digital TV set-top box, Apple TV, Connected TV boxes, mobile phone, iPhone, smartphone, iPad, tablet, broadband WiFi router, Internet radio, camcorder, e-reader, home monitoring camera, iPod, personal audio player •          Broadband/TV Access Technologies: Cable, xDSL, Fiber, WiMax, Mobile data card/dongle, satellite, terrestrial broadcast, IPTV •          Advanced TV Features (selected examples): VOD, Pause/rewind live TV, Series recording, Mobile phone app, caller ID, whole home DVR, internet access •          Online TV device usage: TV/PC, TV/console, TV/media server, TV/Blu-ray, TV/digital media player, Connected TV, PC, Tablet, Smartphone

 

We are excited by the strong interest already shown in this service, which we believe is unique in many respects. Please email digitalconsumer@strategyanalytics.com for further details and a personal demonstration.

David Mercer

“The TV” has been about more than “TV” for many years. Ever since the first video recorders arrived back in the late 1970s, bringing home video to millions of millions of TV sets around the world, TV viewers have been faced with ever-increasing choice in what they watch and when they watch it.

The latest stage in this evolution has been the arrival of internet connectivity to the TV itself and to many of its attached devices. While such products have been around for a few years, it’s only relatively recently that improved bandwidth and usability have allowed people to explore the world of internet video on their big screens.

Our recent survey of nearly 5000 respondents across the US and Europe suggests people are taking to this “connected TV thing” in a big way. Based on the survey’s findings we estimate that 42 million homes across the two regions are now connecting a TV screen to the internet, in some way or other, in order to watch TV shows or movies. This is not a daily activity for most people just yet – this is the number of homes doing this monthly, weekly or daily. But it’s a clear sign that the concept of connected TV is becoming more widely accepted.

Significantly we found much higher usage in the US than in Europe – 20% of US homes are using connected TV compared to 10% of European homes. The Germans are falling some way behind the rest of Europe: only 6% of German homes are using connected TV currently, compared to 12% in both France and Italy – the UK proportion stands at 9%.

New digital service providers such as Netflix and Hulu have seen tremendous progress in the States in the last couple of years as they become available on multiple connected TV devices. Europe has yet to find its own equivalent, although each market can name examples of localised services.

People are still working out the best way to get connected TV content onto their TV set. In the US the games console is leading the way: in Europe the most popular method is to connect a PC to the TV using an HDMI cable. But the majority of connected TV viewers are actually making use of more than one solution. There may be a number of reasons for this: certain content is only available from different devices; or they are using different TV screens at different times.

We are in the early days of the connected TV revolution, but the momentum shows no sign of decline. As Ultraviolet launches and Apple considers its own streaming movie service, this market is set to get a lot more interesting over the next few months.

David Mercer

Client Reading: Multiscreen Connected TV: Assessing Device Usage and Ownership

 

 

I listened in recently to an analyst webinar given by Dave Durnil, director of advanced content at Qualcomm CDMA Technologies. Dave's role is to convince games publishers that Qualcomm's Snapdragon system-on-chip platform is suitable for "console-quality" games. So far things seem to be going well, with more than a 100 games optimized to the Snapdragon platform.

Qualcomm’s strategy, according to Durnil, is based on the premise that smartphones will replace TV games consoles. Durnil provided various statistics which demonstrate the “decline” of the console market, which do not match Strategy Analytics’ own analysis, so that’s an unfortunate place to start the discussion.

There’s no question that the quality of games on handset devices is improving rapidly, and will continue to do so through more advanced mobile platforms like Snapdragon. But why is Qualcomm asking the question, will phones replace consoles? If it truly expects Snapdragon to match or exceed the capabilities of TV consoles in the future, surely it could enter the dedicated TV console market and sell even more devices?

The flawed assumption seems to be that consumers are willing to use their handsets as TV peripherals, using either an HDMI lead or short-range wireless connection. Our research so far has suggested this type of behaviour is something which only a small number of people are interested in: for example, in our July 2011 consumer survey, only 6% of 4800 respondents said they were very interested in using a mobile phone to send high definition TV and video to a TV set.

Many people also doubt whether a mobile-dedicated platform really will be able to compete head-to-head with a TV-based one, but let’s also put those doubts to one side for the sake of argument. If Qualcomm is right, and Snapdragon really will be able to compete with PS4 and Xbox720, what is to stop the company offering its technology platform to console manufacturers, as well as handset makers? Games publishers would presumably be delighted at the prospect of authoring to a common mobile/TV platform.

The concern, as we have seen with Nokia in the past, is that a strategy focused on traditional strengths can blind a firm to growth potential outside of its comfort zone. Qualcomm should be careful not to fall into that trap: its gaming strategy suggests that it could have a future beyond just the handheld device. 200 million TV games consoles will be sold worldwide over the next five years – is Qualcomm missing out?

David Mercer

Client Reading: Global Connected Consumer Electronics (CE) Devices Market Forecast

 

At the recent Blu-ray Academy and Mediatech conference in Hamburg, Germany I presented Strategy Analytics’ vision for the future of 3D in the home, focusing on the European market opportunity. We are clear that 3D in the home is going to happen, and more rapidly than some observers seem to think.

(I was surprised recently at the response to our recent 3D forecasts by the normally reliable CEA, whose Chief Economist Shawn DuBravac described them as “the worst forecast yet”. I worry for the CEA’s own forecasts if this overreaction reflects the quality of their analysis. Since we published our 3D analysis, several other analyst firms have come out with similar pictures, and the industry itself also seems to be in broad agreement. Time for the CEA to clarify why it’s out of line, perhaps.)

In spite of the CEA’s scepticism, we estimate that some 15% of European homes already own a digital TV set-top box which is 3D-capable, and nearly as many own a 3D-ready games console. The number of homes with 3D-ready TVs is very low, of course, but now growing quickly as 3D becomes a more common feature on plasma and LCD TVs. By 2014 more than 40% of European homes will have a 3D-ready TV, and nearly a quarter will own a 3D Blu-ray disc player.

In spite of these projections there is still a lot of work to be done to dispel some of the uncertainty surrounding 3D. Our European surveys (carried out in Q3 2010) indicated low levels of understanding of 3D issues. Only just over a half of Europeans correctly believed that 3D TVs were available to purchase: the remainder were uncertain or believed wrongly that it is not possible to buy a 3D TV. Likewise, barely half of Europeans know that you need glasses to watch a 3DTV at home. The greatest lack of knowledge surrounds the health impact of 3D TV: only 32% of Europeans believe that watching 3D TV does not cause damage to the eyes: half are unsure and 17% believe it does cause damage.

These are big communications challenges for all industry players to overcome. Nevertheless there is evidence of strong interest in 3D TV, with two thirds of Europeans interested in watching 3D movies and nearly a half interested in 3D versions of TV shows. As the base of installed 3D-ready hardware grows, the opportunity now lies with television content producers to make the most of this opportunity. If that content doesn’t materialise people may never see a need to put on the goggles.

David Mercer

Client Reading: 3D in Europe: Challenges and Opportunities

Based on most of the games press coverage, which frequently focuses on the US market alone, you might be surprised to hear it; but Sony's PlayStation 3 has passed Microsoft's Xbox 360 in one key respect: the global active installed base of consoles.

Our ownership models apply assumptions about device retirement life cycles to console sales data on a regional and global basis. We published updated, in-depth analysis on games console market and ownership dynamics to our clients in our March 2010 report, Taming the Waves: Games Console Life Cycles and Platform Competition.

According to our newly revised model, the global active installed base of PS3s reached 43.4M at the end of 2010. This exceeded the equivalent number of Xbox 360s by 43.9M. We estimate that the overtaking maneouvre happened during December 2010 as the holiday season reached its peak.

As we have predicted previously, we remain confident that the current Sony system is on course to become the largest global TV console platform by 2013. In fact, PS3 sales globally slightly exceeded our early 2010 forecast, and with expectations growing for a PS3 price cut this year, the console’s sales trajectory is likely to continue in line with our predictions.

At the same time we have also revised upwards our forecasts for the Xbox 360. At 12.1M, sales in 2010 were very close to our High scenario, and our model has been adjusted to reflect the improved outlook driven by the success of Kinect.

So what of Nintendo’s Wii? As we predicted more than a year ago, sales fell significantly to 17.2 million in 2010, just 3% away from our forecast. We have therefore made only minor revisions to our model, which predicts that the peak in the active installed base of Wii is going to occur at some point during 2011, probably around the middle of the year. In terms of annual sales, both Sony and Microsoft will exceed the Wii this year, although in terms of active ownership, the Wii will not be passed by the PS3 until 2013 and by the Xbox 360 in 2014.

As we predicted more than a year ago, we still believe that Nintendo may have a surprise up its sleeve for E3. Much of the attention will inevitably be on the 3DS and the games and applications developed for it. But Nintendo cannot afford to rely on the handheld market alone for its future success. In the TV space it will be planning the Wii’s successor and may well discuss this by mid-year. If the company had planned correctly in our view, it would be ready to launch Wii2 by end 2011, at least for the Japanese domestic market. This timing would take some of sting out of the tail of its two rivals’ continued strength.

However we will not be surprised if Nintendo’s many fans now have to wait until 2012 for the Wii2, even if announcements are made at E3. The actual launch will  not come a moment too soon, because the Wii is now looking very tired and sales will decline rapidly over the next 12 months.

David Mercer

Client Reading: Global TV Games Console Forecast: Will Sensor Technology Revive Demand?

We don’t do this very often folks, but as a seasonal gift we have made our 2011 Digital Home Predictions report available to everyone, whether a Strategy Analytics client or not. You can download the full report here. A lot of the talk at the moment is about Google’s troubles with its TV offer: there will be little to see at CES after all, much to the annoyance of Google’s many partners no doubt. But this setback should not be seen as a a sign of general malaise in the connected TV industry: Apple has just reported that its TV solution is finally gaining some traction, and we expect continued progress from other key players in the rollout of internet TV to the big screen during 2011. We may even see Facebook moving into this space. Headline number of the year will be tablet revenues, which we predict will exceed netbooks. We also think Apple needs to revamp iTunes to take account of the connected device era, and Nintendo may have to take the plunge and launch the successor to the Wii. We’ll see further innovations in the TV control arena, with touchscreens, phone apps and motion control all featuring more widely. But 3DTV is likely to see only slow progress: sure, people will be buying 3D-enabled sets, but less than 20% will be watching 3D content on them. And one more stat to whet your appetite: more than one billion people worldwide will be using social networks for the first time during 2011. And since you are one of them, please go ahead and read the full report, and any comments and feedback are always appreciated. Best wishes for a peaceful holiday season. David Mercer Client Reading: Profiling the Connected Media Consumer - UK

Having tested Microsoft’s Xbox Kinect for the last few days I can confirm that it has the elusive wow factor. Controlling on-screen icons and menus with a wave of the hand is the first sign that this stuff is definitely not of the old generation. Seeing your own avatar mirror your movements introduces the real sense of spookiness which only comes with genuinely ground-breaking technology. And when you are first signed into the service simply by entering the room, the realisation dawns that the age of intelligent technology may finally be upon us. My other conclusion is that if you are not physically fit before you buy Kinect, you certainly will be after a few sessions of gameplay. Microsoft is very clear that the initial raft of Kinect games titles are aimed at its “non-traditional” audience (implying, not entirely accurately, spotty teenagers shooting each other from the comfort of oversized armchairs) and involve varying levels of energy expenditure from a standing position. You may or may not be relieved to know that there is at least one application which does not require you to abandon the sofa: VideoKinect is the built-in video communications service, allowing Kinect games players to take a break to share their exhausting exploits with friends and relatives around the world. As for the games themselves, we found the bowling and track and field in Kinect Sports a lot of fun. Bowling illustrates the strengths of gesture-based gaming because the system appears to recognise genuine bowling actions which are impossible for any controller system to replicate. Track and field includes a variety of athletics events, and, yes, the 100m dash involves running on the spot as fast as you can. Microsoft told me that an elderly 80-year old lady in Australia had enjoyed some of these sports. I would like to see this. Children will love Kinectimals, the classic cutsey furry animal petting game. Choose your favourite cub, cuddle it with your virtual hands, and watch it mimic your actions and learn tricks. Parents of young children should avoid installing this game on their main TV as they will never get to watch TV again. Kinect Joy Ride didn’t work as well for me. This is the main racing game available at launch, and, yes, you have to pretend to hold a steering wheel. I would love this to have worked more effectively, but this is the point at which virtualisation just doesn’t seem to make any sense. Try it at home: See how long you can keep your hands spaced the same distance apart while moving them around in a circle, changing direction frequently, and leaning your body one way or the other to perform tricks. Sorry, but holding a real steering wheel has just got to be a better experience. Microsoft hope that Kinect will help it to “more than double” the number of Xbox 360s sold worldwide so far, which is more than 42 million. Our own core scenario forecast is that Microsoft will fall slightly short of this objective, selling a cumulative 79 million 360s by 2015. Our analysis did allow for further upside to 360 sales as a result of a successful Kinect launch, so we will be tracking its near term progress and impact on core console sales before updating our scenario models. We should also be clear that Microsoft, along with other platform vendors, tends to talk in terms of cumulative sales. Our analysis also takes account of console retirement and replacement, and this could be a critical issue as we begin to understand Kinect’s impact on wider 360 ownership. It is, after all, being offered for sale as a peripheral to existing 360 owners, as well as packaged with a complete 360 console system. Again, the mix between these two packaging options will be important in determining the real impact on the 360’s overall performance. Sales to existing 360 owners may extend the life of the system in those households but will not help to widen the audience. Microsoft’s primary interest will be to increase sales of the 360 itself to new owners. Will Kinect succeed? As always, it will depend on how we define success. Kinect is certainly innovative, and as such it will appeal to existing 360 owners who want to explore the new technology for its own sake or find the new games appealing. Kinect should also bring the 360 more forcefully to the minds of existing owners of other consoles who may be tiring of their current platform. The obvious target is Nintendo’s Wii, global sales of which, as we predicted, are declining by more than 20% this year. While Nintendo works out its post-Wii strategy, Kinect has a window of opportunity of maybe a year to tap into demand from lapsed Wii users. In spite of the enthusiasm indicated above, Kinect is not without its challenges. The biggest concern for many potential buyers will be the space required in front of the TV. Our system is installed in a traditionally small English cottage, and there is just about enough space to use Kinect for the few games we have tried. Demonstrations of some games I have seen suggest that Kinect owners will need clutter-free floor space of three feet by six feet (1m x 2m) at a minimum distance of six feet (2m) from the sensor in order to get the maximum benefit. Xbox actually recommends a distance of 8-10 feet (c. 3m) from the sensor. It goes without saying that this space must be free of all obstacles, alive or dead, if minor injuries are to be avoided. Other commentators have noted the potential for lag in motion sensing. The movements in the self-image window or the avatar certainly appear some fractions of a second behind actual motion. The critical question is whether this has an impact on usability, and so far, in an admittedly short series of tests, I have not noticed any significant negative impact on gameplay. There have been occasions when voice recognition and motion sensing do not appear to function perfectly, but I would not draw any conclusions regarding weaknesses in the technology versus the need for familiarisation. Only time will tell whether these are persistent issues which need to be resolved by further technology enhancements. Kinect’s success will hinge on whether “really clever stuff” is good enough to drive sales, and whether its integration into games is perceived as ground-breaking. Xbox is also taking a risk in focusing Kinect purely on the “active gaming” sector. Nintendo did break new ground with motion control, but Wii games did not always require players to stand up or indeed move around. Microsoft says that developers can deploy Kinect in more “subtle” ways, supporting sit-back gaming. Until such games appear the first titles risk being positioned as a niche market. But overall Kinect is an impressive attempt to take the TV games console industry in a new direction and we believe it will have the initial positive impact on the 360 business which we predicted earlier this year. Judgment on its longer term success will have to wait a few more months once the novelty has begun to wear off, but it would be very surprising if Kinect’s arrival does not push development of games and other TV-based applications in directions we can today only barely imagine. Client Reading: Taming the Waves: Games Console Life Cycles and Platform Competition

Is it a sign of Trouble at’ Mill? Or just another corporate shake-up while business goes on as usual? Microsoft yesterday announced the departure of leading Entertainment and Devices executives Robbie Bach and J. Allard. Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer will take charge of the division, with Don Mattrick running the Xbox side and Andy Lees the mobile business. There are clearly problems for Microsoft in its mobile business. All the various iterations of its mobile phone software over the years have failed to make significant market impact as Apple and, now, Google, make the running. Microsoft’s biggest problem is that consumer is still a relatively small and fragmented part of its overall business. It’s losing out to Apple, and others, in the consumer market because its primary corporate focus continues to be business users of Windows. Apple, which, not through lack of effort, never achieved prominence in business markets, has been able to focus its strategy on the consumer space without the hindrance of adhering to a corporate software strategy. From Microsoft’s perspective it might seem logical to group Xbox, music players and mobile phones under one roof, but this makes less obvious sense to the outside world. Xbox has been successful largely because it has been left alone to formulate its own strategy focused on games, entertainment and the digital home. Dan Mattrick, whom I met last summer to discuss Xbox strategy, should now try to persuade Ballmer that the Xbox team needs to remain a discrete unit with liberty to forge its own direction, and if necessary outside of the demands of the corporate Windows strategy if necessary. With the launch of Natal imminent, the continued ramping up of online services based around the Xbox 360, and the plateauing of Xbox 360 sales, Microsoft can ill afford a dilution in focus because of this disruption to the senior management team. David Mercer Other Blog Posts Of Interest: PS3 Global Market Share Reached 31% in Q1 2010 Sony’s PS3 to Win Current Games Console Battle; SA Forecasts 47.5 Million Global Console Market in 2010 Sky Player Finally Arrives Where It Belongs, But Work Still to be Done TV or Videogame? 1 vs 100 on Xbox Live Offers Lifeline To Appointment Viewing Client Reading: Taming the Waves: Games Console Life Cycles and Platform Competition

Sony’s newest home console gained market share in terms of global sales in the first quarter of 2010. PS3 sales reached 2.2 million units, out of a total for the three main rivals of 7.2 million, giving it a 31% share. This compares to an 18% share a year earlier, and 28% in the previous quarter, Q409. In spite of declining sales, the Wii actually maintained its market share in Q1, with 49% of sales. It was the Xbox 360 which lost share compared to the previous quarter, selling 1.5 million and giving it 21% of global sales. This was, however, an increase in a year ago, when the 360 had 19% of the market. The companies’ data remain pretty much in line with Strategy Analytics’ own projections for full year 2010 performance, as published in March 2010 in our report, “Taming the Waves: Games Console Life Cycles and Platform Competition”. There are three major uncertainties for 2010 sales: the extent of the decline in sales of the Wii; whether system enhancements can improve the performance of the Xbox 360 in the second half; and whether improvements in the PS3’s sales can be sustained through the rest of the year. For the moment we continue to predict global PS3 sales of 14.0 million in 2010, compared to 17.5 million Wiis and 10.5 million Xbox 360s. This will represent an overall decline in current generation console sales of 9%. David Mercer Client Reading: Taming the Waves: Games Console Life Cycles and Platform Competition

As promised, a quick preview of our games console forecast which will be published early next week. No surprise that Nintendo’s Wii stands in the lead at the moment, within the current generation of systems, in terms of global installed base. We estimate that there will be nearly 76 million Wiis in use worldwide by the end of 2010. But the signs are that the Wii has peaked in terms of console sales, and its installed base will begin to decline after 2011. Meanwhile, Sony’s PS3 and Microsoft’s Xbox 360 will continue to grow, so that the PS3 will become the largest platform globally by 2013. In terms of cumulative lifetime sales we expect the PS3 to hit 127 million units, compared to 103 million Wiis. These estimates are derived from our core forecast scenario, but we have developed various scenarios for each platform. Uncertainties clearly surround each of the major platforms, particularly relating to the new services and upgrades planned by Sony and Microsoft. Natal on the Xbox could be more beneficial to 360 sales than expected, and Sony’s own motion controller, together with its plans to upgrade all PS3s to 3D capabilitiy, also represent potential for upside to our core forecasts. This year’s global market for consoles is likely to fall again, after a 6% decline last year. For 2010 we are predicting global console sales of 47.5 million, a 9% decline.The Wii will account for most of that decline: sales of the PS3 and Xbox 360 are predicted to increase. David Mercer Client Reading: Global Video Game Market Forecast