Connected Home Devices

No other vendor offers the combination of timely, consistent and accurate tracking of 22 different product categories spanning audio, video and computing,

January 27, 2011 11:18 dmercer

I don’t often refer to competitors’ reports as the analyst community generally likes to maintain a friendly distance. But Canalys’ announcement that tablets should be counted as PCs pretty much forces a reaction.

Canalys appears to be taking a technology-based approach to segmentation. So the fact that tablets have fast processors, can run productivity applications, offer email, and can access the internet, puts them in the same category as PCs, which also do these things. The absence of a keyboard, and the presence of a touch screen, are seen merely as customer options, just as one might specify a blu-ray disc drive or extra memory.

Canalys concludes that the “PC” market is therefore doing extremely well at the moment, largely because of the success of the tablet category.

Segmentation arguments are one of the many joys of industry analysis. Lines are invariably blurred, definitions hazy and perspectives inevitably conflicting. Market forecast buyers must always ensure they understand what is and is not included in any given segment, as this is often a key reason for variations in market estimates from one source to another.

But in spite of these challenges, Canalys seems to be stretching things just a little too far on this occasion. If we want to count the market for “computing devices”, fair enough. Let’s bundle in desktops, notebooks, netbooks, tablets, MIDs, smartphones, and a fair few TV set-top boxes and other devices as well while we are at it. They all offer a similar combination of technical functions, though each is clearly better suited to some more than others.

However precise we try to be about technology or functional definitions, sooner or later, we also have to consider user perceptions. If it surfs like a tablet, plays games like a tablet, and stimulates envy like a tablet, it probably is a tablet. And no amount of ivory tower contemplation will persuade Apple’s iPad customers they have bought a “PC”, however much Microsoft and Intel might wish they had.

Good luck with this one, my friends - you are going to need it.

David Mercer

Client Reading: Global Tablet Sales Forecast by Country

January 8, 2011 16:01 dmercer

Kent Displays is not a name which will immediately bring recognition to consumer electronics industry veterans, but it’s one to watch out for. The company, based in Kent, Ohio, makes a unique and patented variant of LCD displays, Reflex™, and after many years of trying different professional applications finally came out with its consumer-oriented Boogie Board towards the end of 2010. According to CEO Albert Green, the company’s initial sales projections of “a few thousand” were vastly exceeded, with several hundred thousand sold in the run up to Christmas. Boogie Boards were available at $39.99 in Brookstone stores if you were lucky enough to find one. Sales will exceed one million this year. What are they? Basically they are small, very light, notepads, and require no power to retain the image since they use reflected light. The image can be erased instantly and this function requires a small 3V watch battery. The writing experience truly is very similar to paper, in fact in many ways it is much better. When the company adds local storage in future iterations, this will become a powerful, simple, low cost and easy-to-use notepad which could synch directly to a PC or smart device for further processing. I can’t wait to get my hands on one before next year’s CES. David Mercer


January 8, 2011 15:01 dmercer
A CEA Board member told me at a Thursday evening party that the body behind the International CES was thinking visitor numbers this year might be heading towards 170,000. Many regular visitors I’ve spoken to agree it has been busier at the Las Vegas Convention Center than they can ever imagine, even in the last peak year, 2008. And in spite of the increase in hotel capacity since then the story is that there are no rooms to be had at the inn. Rumours even abound of visitors having to sleep on the streets or wander the casinos all night without getting any sleep. OK, that last bit was made up, but it may not be far from the truth, perhaps through personal preference in a few oddball cases.  There’s a fine balance between creating the enviable perception of a “can’t miss” event and making the experience unbearable for everyone tempted by the hype. And from a personal perspective and an informal survey of passing name badges and cab and monorail lines, CES 2011 certainly seems to have attracted many folks for the first time. Many press events have been so busy that even pre-registrants have been turned away; as an example, the Samsung press conference was beyond a joke, with never-ending lines of people still waiting to enter the event after the doors had to be closed.   With all respect to some of the international press, I’m not sure that a correspondent from “Land Rover Monthly” should be getting the same priority and attention as those of us who live and breathe the “consumer electronics” industry 24/365. But then, the CEA’s job is to grow “its industry”, and if Land Rover buyers can now be classified as consumer electronics customers, all well and good. With the content and media industry here in force, as well as all manner of telecoms and cable service providers, alongside the traditional target audience (consumer electronics retailers), it would seem the CES’s “industry” has suddenly expanded beyond all recognition.  Don’t get me wrong: there has been a buzz about this event which has been missing the last few years, and we at Strategy Analytics have certainly had an excellent few days of meetings. But the longer in tooth amongst us will recall the Comdex saga of some years ago, when a leading international technology trade show collapsed under its own excessive weight. How much bigger can CES get before the same happens here? The LVCC will certainly not cope with many more people in January 2012, so something will have to be done about show floor capacity if it moves towards 200,000 visitors. A return to split Sands/LVCC show floors perhaps?  David Mercer

January 6, 2011 21:01 dmercer
We won't really know until Motorola's new tablet is launched in its finished form, but first demos of the Android 3.0-based Xoom suggest it will win the hearts of many of this year’s 30+ million tablet buyers. As we reported in our free-to-download 2011 Predictions Report, global revenues from tablet sales will exceed netbooks this year. Motorola’s stand at CES is crammed to overload this morning with gadget lovers desperate to get a first sighting of Google’s new “Honeycomb” OS in action. Those who made it were not disappointed. I recorded a video of the device in action. Enjoy! David Mercer Client Reading: Global Tablet Sales Forecast by Country

January 4, 2011 20:01 dmercer
With a couple of hours to go before this year’s technofest in Las Vegas gets under way, I thought I’d issue a friendly warning to the growing number of firms (Intel, Samsung, LG are culprits so far) who seem to be planning to major on “Smart TV” as a key theme of this year’s show. Even before the doors open we already have a quotation from LG Electronics' Baeguen Kang: "Smart TV is an inevitable trend: As people experienced smartphones and tablet PCs, the larger screen on a TV is very attractive for apps and Web content.” So whatever people do on phones and PCs, they will inevitably do on their TVs? If this is an indication of the strategic thinking behind many of the innovations we are about to see unveiled this week, I can scarcely imagine the horrors which await us. When will manufacturers learn? As Google’s disastrous first attempt at connected TV has neatly demonstrated, people do not want the web on TV. How many times do we have to go through this learning process? What people want on TV is video content, and if that’s going to be “smart” it had better deliver some level of intelligence about what video content viewers are likely to enjoy. As I said in our (free to download) 2011 Predictions report, television viewers don’t want a million things to choose from: they want their TV to tell them what they are likely to enjoy. Surprise me, enlighten me! That has value, and if it unexpectedly appears at this year’s show I’ll be the first to label it “smart”. David Mercer