The BBC has announced the launch of its iPlayer for July 27th, several months earlier than expected. The iPlayer will be free to use (for UK licence fee payers) and will allow broadband Internet users to watch TV or radio programmes broadcast on the BBC's TV and radio channels in the previous seven days. Programmes will be available for streaming or download up to seven days since first broadcast. Downloaded programmes can be used up to 30 days after broadcast. The iPlayer is only Windows-compatible at launch but a Mac version is in preparation. The BBC says it is in discussions with distribution partners such as MSN, Telegraph.co.uk, AOL, Tiscali, Yahoo, Myspace, Bebo and Blinkx. There will doubtless be plenty of hype around this news for the next few weeks, not least from the BBC news service itself. The real news story is the availability of TV programmes rather than radio, which have been available online for many years. The iPlayer should be a slick application, and it is another step forward for the UK market in the global drive towards web TV. But as I have often pointed out to Strategy Analytics clients, broadcasters in other countries have offered this sort of service for some years. I usually cite NRK, the Norwegian public broadcaster, which offers vast archives of TV programmes available for online streaming (eg here). So while the BBC has been lagging behind other players in recent years, it could now leapfrog competitors with a powerful application and a wide range of valuable content. The concept of "always available" is gradually changing the TV industry as broadcasters wake up to the threat and potential of broadband, but business models still reflect the era of scheduled broadcasting. That will surely begin to change as we learn more about the demand for "catch-up TV" and other emerging digital services.

A couple of footnotes to previous posts on the next-gen disc saga. 1 - Blockbuster’s decision to roll out BD discs to 1700 stores, keeping HD-DVD to only 250. 2- Toshiba will include HD-DVD as standard in its laptops from this summer. Both developments confirm our analysis that the swing towards BD as a content platform is inexorable. Toshiba will fight with all the tools in its armoury, but laptop HD-DVD drives are unlikely to drive much demand for pre-recorded discs. Blockbuster’s decision is a throwback to the VHS-Beta battle 30 years ago, when wider retail and rental availability of VHS pre-recorded tapes was a decisive factor. Supporting its decision, Blockbuster cites its own data that 70% of next-gen disc rentals so far have been BD, suggesting that, in spite of standalone HD-DVD players being first to market, the PS3 may be driving some movie consumption.

The NXTcomm convention is under way at McCormick Place in Chicago. The exhibition floor is populated by all the right names, but it somehow doesn't seem quite as packed as an industry-leading event ought to be, especially once you get beyond the big name displays. The conference and keynote sessions have at least attracted a high-profile line-up of speakers, headed this morning by AT&T's new Chairman and CEO, Randall Stephenson, and Cisco's John Chambers. Anyone attending CES in January could probably have afforded themselves a coffee break during Chambers' speech, 90% of which was given back in January. Stephenson at least gave the fresh perspective of a man barely two weeks into a new job, although singling the iPhone as the most critical example of a new convergence era was hardly original, if not surprising given the scale of AT&T's bet on its Apple partnership. I couldn't help wondering if Stephenson hadn't actually missed the point regarding news that 40% of registered interest in the iPhone came from non-AT&T customers. He suggested to the audience that this meant people wanted AT&T's service. Surely it means they want Apple, rather than AT&T? Once again, the question of who really has the customer relationship comes to the fore. I predict a honeymoon period for AT&T and Apple, followed by arguments and tears... I am watching out at NXTcomm in particular for discussion of the OTT (Over The Top) threat to telcos' customer relationships, but perhaps I've come to the wrong place as most debates skilfully skirt this awkward question. AT&T's CTO Chris Rice agreed that OTTs have a place, and that content "will come from anywhere". He seemed keen to suggest that they would not be able to offer anywhere near the experience available from managed telco services, but avoided citing any specific examples of why this might be true. Qwest's Pieter Poll was more realistic in accepting that "carriers are going to have to work out how they participate" in the changing competitive environment. While naturally avoiding committing to any vision of a clear OTT threat to telcos, Poll at least accepted that "it will be very interesting to watch how relationships will change over time". Indeed it will, for analysts and other third parties - telcos that continue to convince themselves that OTT players are in a different business may not survive long enough to see just how those relationships evolve.

Further signs that the next gen DVD format war is swinging decisively towards Blu-Ray - in spite of all Sony's problems with PS3. Toshiba yesterday cut its US 2007 HD-DVD sales forecast to 1 million players, having previously cited a 1.8 million target. The reason, according to Toshiba's Digital Media Networks CEO, was "slower than expected sales". This seems to me a bit like saying "it's raining because it's raining". I think the 1 million target is still way too optimistic. Only 150,000 HD-DVD players have been sold in the first 14 months on the market, so it will take a tremendous ramp-up to sell another 850,000 in just 7 months. Prices are falling, of course, but HD-DVD hasn't even faced serious competition from BD players yet, and when the sub-$500 BD machines start appearing on store shelves we'll see exactly which way the wind is blowing. The issue now is how much more money Toshiba can afford to pour into its role as primary HD-DVD promoter. By the end of this year it will clearly be the minority format as far as players and titles are concerned. As we have suggested all along, I suspect the company will find refuge in highlighting HD-DVD's role as a PC upgrade. Whatever the decision, we should expect strategy shifts before too long.