As recognition in the industry grows regarding the importance of crowd-sourced traffic information, the race to build or acquire the biggest crowd has taken hold. Weighing in for the struggle ahead are RIM, Google, Nokia, Telenav, TomTom, TCS/NIM, Inrix, Waze, Telmap and just about any other organization with access to the GPS feeds associated with connected mobile devices. Crowd-sourced data is not simply passive GPS data feeds. By crowd-sourced information this analyst is referring to ACTIVE information inputs from traffic observers feeding live reports of incidents and traffic jams. This is the new frontier in traffic information and traffic information providers are still building the tools to capture and integrate these inputs. (The Holy Grail will be a connected traffic solution with in-dash display showing crowd-sourced updates of hyper-local traffic conditions - certainly within the realm of the possible with existing technology.) Navteq is the latest player to join the fray with its acquisition of Trapster, the speed camera location company built upon nine million downloads of its application for reporting speed camera locations. Reportedly battled over by five other bidders, Trapster has attracted a substantial following potentially putting it ahead of TCS/NIM, with about five million probes, but behind Telenav, with more than 17 million. Of course, the challenge for any vendor of crowd-sourced information is the need to get users to turn on and actively use the application. If people are not actively navigating or otherwise sharing their location information – a power-hungry proposition – then the network is, in reality, only a fraction of the total user population. Nevertheless, crowd-sourced information is the next frontier and it has a role in everything from POI information and evaluations, to social networking and, now, traffic. The information is so important to obtain, that companies such as Waze have created elaborate games and reward systems for participants, and tools are usually put in place for identifying trusted data sources and flagging unreliable ones. The key to the success of any traffic system or service, though, is scalability. While crowd-sourced models are interesting – tantalizing even – the question the service provider eventually must face is whether or not they can be scaled. Waze has demonstrated its ability to scale across multiple geographies, although this has spread the current population of three million participants too thin to be reliably useful in all locations. Inrix has enabled crowd-sourced inputs for the U.S., which are being shared with Dept. of Transportation traffic centers, but has yet to extend the platform globally. TomTom’s Live Services application for its connected PNDs currently boasts hundreds of thousands of users, but the solution is built on a standardized and scalable platform that the company is extending – slowly but surely – to the U.S. and Asia from its European base. The GPS-based crowd-sourced data from TomTom PND and embedded PND users will enhance the company’s already cutting edge HD Traffic solution. As it seeks to stake its own claim in the crowd-sourced traffic data sweepstakes, Nokia Navteq will need to define a global traffic service solution, applicable in all geographic markets and capable of leveraging Nokia Navteq’s unique strengths and customer relationships. Just as Inrix, for example, has been able to launch 18 standardized traffic products deployable across any geography, Nokia Navteq needs to build out its traffic portfolio as part of its own effort to set as high a standard in traffic data as it has established in mapping. The race is on.* *Editor's note: OnStar and Apple are notable for their absence from the current roster of crowd-sourced traffic competitors. Nothing appears to be standing in the path of either organization entering the crowd-sourced traffic game. OnStar could no-doubt use the value enhancement to its existing traffic services. Apple, along with the major wireless carriers, has left this value proposition to third parties for now. Stay tuned. http://bit.ly/dLWMJK - Time for Nokia to Take Over Traffic Strategy - Lanctot – Automotive Multimedia & Communications Service

The gold standard for telematics success is daily relevance. One of the greatest challenges for companies introducing telematics systems and solutions is to bring daily relevance to their offerings. Human beings are creatures of habit, which means that driving directions are normally not required daily, gas pricing and parking choices are predetermined, and weather and news are available for free over the radio. Movie times, skiing conditions and restaurant reviews are nice to haves. But they are available from other sources – most notably mobile phones – and are an occasional not a daily information requirement. And we all hope we never have to use either automatic crash notification or roadside assistance. Traffic data, on the other hand, is something that is relevant five days a week to a substantial portion of the working public. Companies that get traffic data right have a huge competitive advantage not only in providing traffic data, but also for providing a wide range of data feeds and services. In fact, the very infrastructure required for delivering traffic data – storage and processing facilities and servers and, in some cases, broadcasting capability - is a suitable platform for providing other telematics services. For this reason, traffic data providers Inrix, ITIS Holdings, TomTom and Navteq also serve as content and service aggregators. (It is also one of the reasons for TeleCommunications Systems’ acquisition of Networks in Motion and why TeleNav has a content and services platform.) The opportunity to provide additional telematics services is the brass ring for which traffic data providers are reaching. It is for this reason these companies are seeking to bundle traffic data offerings with traffic-influenced routing, developing mobile apps for smartphones and connected navigation systems, and other initiatives focused on moving up the value chain – ultimately leading to sponsored content, reviews and location-aware advertising and promotion. The daily relevance of traffic data is a powerful elixir for delivering additional location-aware added-value services, including advertising. This is why Google, TeleNav, TCS, Nokia Navteq, RIM and TomTom are moving quickly to introduce or enhance their probe-based (handset GPS) traffic flow solutions to develop their telematics business. The winner(s) to emerge from this marketing scrum will be the company or companies with the highest quality traffic data. Traffic data quality, in turn, is determined by a handful of critical factors including data sources, integration, and delivery. (The quality and nature of the user interface is important as well, but is the responsibility of the device or service designer/manufacturer.) The determining factors within each of these areas are essential to understand: Sources: There are a handful of key sources of traffic data and they include commercial fleet (ie. taxi cabs, trucks, etc. and other types of probes such as GPS handsets, PNDs, etc.), regional departments of transport, embedded and roadside sensors, and incident or journalistic data. A handful of companies – principally TomTom, ITIS Holdings and AirSage - are translating cell tower signaling data for flow data analysis. This technology is currently deployed by both TomTom and ITIS in parts of Europe. ITIS licenses its technology to partners in Australia, Ireland, Russia, South Africa and Singapore. A North American solution has yet to be delivered. TomTom delivers its cellular flow data in HD Traffic for its connected devices in Europe, which still stands as one of the best, if not THE best, live traffic solution in the world. (It is worth noting that HD Traffic received low scores in BMW's QKZ evaluation.) Traffic flow data from these sources is valuable for many use cases and applications including showing traffic on a map and traffic-influenced routing. Journalistic data complements the flow data by providing context about the cause, location and scope of the traffic problem. This is particularly useful to receive as a traffic incident alert before leaving on a journey or to provide context when actually stuck in a traffic jam, as the driver generally can’t safely read a description about an incident while driving.Incident data come from public sources such as emergency responders, department of transportation traffic cameras, or public or private spotters that may be on the ground or observing traffic conditions from some form of aircraft. Much of incident data is public information – some of it freely available to the public - and most is freely available to commercial traffic information providers. There are some private sources, however, including radio and TV stations with their own spotters, cameras or sensors and these include companies such as ITIS Holdings, SmartRoute, Traffic.com and ClearChannel. ClearChannel and ITIS Holdings have emerged as the dominant suppliers of incident data in the U.S. and U.K., respectively. The two companies have the widest market coverage and the broadest roster of clients. Of course, operating a traffic incident collection and reporter network on a national basis (much less internationally) can be extremely expensive and unprofitable, and companies such as Westwood One and Traffic.com operate under the pressure of that expense. Not surprisingly, ClearChannel and ITIS are also distinguished in applying the so-called QKZ traffic quality assessment standards to their solutions. QKZ, which is the name of the index used to evaluate traffic data, is the standard applied by BMW in evaluating different traffic solutions. BMW recently selected MILE Traffic and Travel (ITIS, Infoblu, Mediamobil consortium) to provide a pan-European traffic solution. BMW is already partnered with ClearChannel in the U.S. for their RDS-TMC solution. It is important to note those elements of the traffic data picture that are global in nature vs. local and to make a distinction between flow data and incident data. There are thousands of local sources of incident data and there are local aggregators of that data, but incident data is fundamentally a regional phenomenon. Flow data, in contrast, is ruled by systems that can be applied globally. There are five providers of flow data currently operating across borders and these are ITIS, Inrix, Nokia Navteq, TomTom and TrafficCast. ITIS is unique in using a licensing model. TomTom has yet to find a customer in the automotive or mobile device market for its flow data. TrafficCast has a handful of customers. And Inrix and Navteq currently compete for contracts in North America and Europe. Car makers are most interested in identifying global solutions, while navigation device makers and mobile application developers are content with regional solutions.  Companies such as Waze, Aha Mobile and TrafficTalk are attempting to open up a new channel of user-reported incident data. But the industry is still seeking to determine how to evaluate the quality of these ad hoc sources and integrate their inputs. Integration: The process of data integration produces a picture of traffic flow including not only real-time traffic flow or speeds but also a predictive model based on both historical and real-time data sources. This information is critical for determining accurate travel and arrival times as well as routing or re-routing.The five leading flow data companies distinguish themselves by their processes for integrating and manipulating traffic data, vetting sources and interpreting the different inputs. A virtual duopoly exists between Inrix and Navteq in the U.S. The European market is rapidly evolving from regional traffic providers to pan-European aggregators. TomTom has developed its proprietary HD traffic in a handful of countries, but is only deployed with its own smartphone and connected PND solutions. Navteq has a solution in place with Garmin, but has limited European coverage. Inrix and MILE Traffic and Travel appear to be emerging as powerful challengers in Europe. Delivery: The last link in the chain is delivery and this is the area experiencing the greatest degree of technological change. The most widespread platform for communicating traffic information is radio, but there are multiple radio-based platforms for traffic information delivery. Analog radio is the most dominant and familiar source of traffic data reports and the most widely available traffic data broadcast network in this medium is RDS-TMC. RDS-TMC is widely criticized for the limited amount of information it is capable of broadcasting in a metropolitan area and perceived delays (latency) in delivering the latest information to the embedded or portable navigation system in the car. Emerging digital radio technology enables a richer stream of traffic-related content and maintains the critical local elements. Digital radio is also a superior platform for delivering other forms of content. RDS-TMC is being replaced by TPEG technology. TPEG allows for a wider range of content, a larger volume of information and can be distributed over HD, DAB or cellular networks as it is XML-based. TPEG also encompasses arterial road coverage. Handset-based solutions are promising, though hampered by the smaller screens and challenging in-vehicle user experience associated with mobile phones. While technologies such as Nokia’s Terminal Mode offer the prospect of delivering handset traffic images to in-vehicle displays these solutions will take a few years to reach the market. Many OEMs, however, are in product development now with solutions that use handsets (or are fully integrating embedded GSM/GPRS modules in the vehicle) for sending traffic data and other telematics information to/from the vehicle. Product development is moving briskly in the handset/smartphone space and innovative solutions such as TrafficTalk and Visteon's TrafficCamJam are in the offing. But the companies creating these applications will likely require expensive voice interfaces. Public authorities will likely not accept handset-based applications in cars that require a touch screen interface while the vehicle is in motion. Part of the power of these smartphone-based applications, though, lies in the fact that they are location-aware and sharing location data even as they are reporting traffic conditions. As a result, these devices remain a wildcard in the evolution of traffic data. Sirius XM’s traffic data service in North America, based as it is on a single national stream of broadcast data to a vehicle’s navigation system, is fatally flawed. Based on this correspondent’s own experience with the Sirius feed in Mercedes and the ClearChannel feed in BMW, the lag introduced by the sequential transmission of multiple-market’s worth of traffic information down a single pipeline is the source of Sirius’ downfall. It is no coincidence that BMW offers Sirius' audio content but eschews its traffic offering. And some industry observers believe OEMs are dropping Sirius/XM traffic data services from their roadmaps for MY13 and beyond in favor of connected services over GPRS/GSM. In Sirius XM’s most recent earnings call two weeks ago the company touted its planned introduction in Q4 2011 of Satellite Radio 2.0. Presumably the company will have a fix for the timely delivery of traffic data. Conclusion: The biggest pipeline to the car of all is the embedded telecommunications module. With new embedded solutions set to launch from multiple car makers in multiple geographies over the next 2-3 years, drivers can expect to see vast improvements in traffic information quality. This is at least one reason for optimism regarding the future uptake of telematics services overall. With the emergence of both digital radio technologies worldwide and the proliferation of embedded telematics systems, the expectation is that the companies that will dominate traffic will be those with the highest quality data. What distinguishes these companies today are their processes for validating data quality. If the data is sound the daily relevance will follow as will subscribers. Further insight: http://tinyurl.com/2bz9zq6 - Google, Nokia and New Entrant Positioning in Automotive Infotainment - Lanctot – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Servicehttp://bit.ly/dniNxa - Navigation Heuristic Evaluation: Telmap5 – Schreiner – Automotive Consumer Insightshttp://bit.ly/95NCoW - Automotive DMB Digital Radio: Marketing Strategies an Increasing Priority – Blight – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Servicehttp://bit.ly/dtRE5C - Automotive Telematics Services: Shifts in Pricing and Monetization Expected – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Servicehttp://bit.ly/bwdwcW - Connected Vehicle and Vehicle Device Connectivity System Database by Feature, Region, and Price 2010 – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Servicehttp://bit.ly/d0aLhq - Connected Vehicle Telematics: Car Maker Profiles – Canali – Aumotive Multimedia and Communications Service

While major media and cable companies talk about four screen strategies the telematics industry is abuzz over the emergence of a three screen world. This was never more clear than at last week’s Telematics Update event in Novi, Mich. From OEMs to tier ones, software and service providers, the focus is on leveraging handsets, head units and the Internet to create closer and more profitable customer relationships. Companies on hand preaching the three-screen gospel included Nokia, Continental, Airbiquity, WirelessCar, RealVNC, QNX, Google, ATX, Tweddle Group Technologies and Parrot. The solutions demonstrated and debated point the way to a more connected experience in the car where the customer can access vehicle related information from outside the vehicle or on a phone or online when away from the vehicle. Even meta data provider Rovi and HMI supplier TAT offered their contributions to the three-screen vision. Nokia described and defended its terminal mode technology, a European-oriented campaign built around what some term a “screen scrape” transfer of a smartphone’s display along with a shift of device control to the vehicle HMI. Nokia intends to equip all of its smartphones with terminal mode technology by early 2011 and is working through the CE4A coalition to coordinate tier one head unit implementation of the technology throughout Europe, where Nokia’s market share is strongest. Using similar technology, RealVNC showed development tools for extending terminal mode technology into a wider range of devices and markets. While Nokia claimed to have two competing handset makers interested in the terminal mode solution, RealVNC’s more agnostic approach offers a suitable alternative. Airbiquity promoted its in-band modem technology by extending the platform to include a customized user interface, tied to the user’s mobile phone, along with app store functionality and location and user-relevant advertising messages. Airbiquity is increasingly taking on the role of a content aggregator, tying together content and applications in a single user interface. Airbiquity's Bluetooth-based approach was presented as a powerful and low-cost data-over-voice/packet alternative to packet-only solutions which require a payment for dial-up networking or SPP monthly service fees. Airbiquity estimates that OEMs deploying packet-only solutions will limit themselves to 20% of the penetratable market of which only 3-5% will have extra carrier service plan for BT DUN/SPP packet connectivity. On top of the data-over-voice solution, Airbiquity is layering its Choreo cloud service for both consumer and commercial markets. Airbiquity says Choreo allows OEMs to convert the car to an IT platform, creating a global infrastructure for content and service delivery. WirelessCar has also stepped into the content aggregator role, showing a clever vehicle-to-smartphone integration providing some basic vehicle control functionality and information access. The WirelessCar solution suggested the long-anticipated realization of a vehicle portal also accessible via smartphone for sharing vital vehicle data with the owner. OnStar has found this approach, with key vehicle status information, to be a valuable tool for driving customer traffic and service revenue via the dealer channel. To drive home its message, WirelessCar led a panel discussion with Ericsson and Cybercom, representing the wireless carrier and software integration perspectives on the implementation of a three-screen world.  Actually, WirelessCar has been pushing and demonstrating this concept for at least three years. Tweddle Group Technologies – the combination of Tweddle Group with UIEvolution’s former automotive division – is also looking to fill the content aggregator role. The company brings to the table its long history in the owner’s manual business – which itself is transitioning to electronic delivery – along with a relationship with Pandora. The Tweddle solution, which allows for the delivery of text and video content - via head unit or handset - related to vehicle systems has intriguing possibilities if integrated with CAN inputs such as alerts or other status messages. Tweddle has yet to marry these two sources of data, but the concept is certainly a powerful one. QNX has also envisioned sharing vehicle status information with the driver via on-board displays. The QNX LTE Car demo includes a “Virtual Mechanic” for providing the driver with images of vehicle systems and their status. Given Toyota’s recent disastrous recalls, the opportunity for these types of systems to catch on is strong. For its part ATX was demonstrating its new application for integration with Mercedes Benz’s TeleAid telematics service. The app provides for some basic vehicle control along with the ability to remotely send a destination to the vehicle’s navigation system. Continental’s AutolinQ concept may be a little ahead of its time in promising an on-board app store experience in an Android operating system environment. While car makers and suppliers have broadly embraced a variety of Linux distributions, Android is still running up against some industry prejudice over the issue of vulnerability to hacking and other perceived weaknesses. Industry buzz suggests that Android is being accepted and even specified in some RFQs, which is certainly a promising development for Continental. The growing Android momentum in the automotive, mobile and even consumer electronics markets suggests that Continental is on the right track. In support of its campaign, Continental announced an eco-system of solution providers contributing to the platform including Ygomi, Inrix, Navteq, Navigon and Deutsche Telekom. Continental will no doubt be flexible regarding these relationships if it means sacrificing a partner to obtain a new contract. But at least now the Continental vision has been clarified as a fully evolved proposition. Delphi executives attended the event, but did not demonstrate their own connectivity platform: D-Connect. Delphi has been vocal in its support of connectivity to Android devices, but resistance to building Android into the head unit. Since D-Connect has not been publicly announced it is hard to predict how Delphi’s final implementation will arrive in the market. Tier two Parrot showed chipsets optimized for mobile device connectivity including the latest Bluetooth protocols and Wi-Fi. Android also figures prominently in Parrot’s plans including some active programs, according to the company. Google announced additional “Send to” partners at the event – OnStar and Ford. For Google, the message for the industry is that it is a cloud-based world. Applications are no longer launched for desktop computers, they are launched on and for the Internet. Google’s recommendation is clearly that car makers facilitate cloud connections either on board or via mobile devices. OnStar, with the most powerful brand in the telematics industry, faces perhaps the greatest challenge in developing a cloud-oriented strategy. Not only must the company integrate its infotainment and telematics teams – long at odds over key applications such as Bluetooth connectivity and navigation – it must also reposition a brand identified almost entirely in relation to safety and security, not entertainment. The path is far from clear, but the promise of additional revenue from dealer service work to content consumption and, overall, a tighter relationship with the customer has car makers and their suppliers working overtime. All agree, at last, that the future lies in three screens. Leading the way are OnStar and Ford, each of which has defined its own three-screen strategy. BMW and Daimler are the next logical candidates to implement the handset-head unit-Internet approach. All of which points to common elements in future telematics solutions including: app stores (accessible via all three screens), vehicle control (across and between platforms), access to vehicle status information (all screens), content aggregation partner and back-end system provider, cloud-based content and services, and provision for multiple-handset compatibility. The emergence of these common threads are helping to clarify the future deployment of telematics systems speeding the delivery of in-vehicle connectivity. *Editor's note: Airbiquity executives suggested amending the strategy to FOUR screens. This week, Microsoft's embedded software division touted a FIVE screen strategy at the Fachkongress Elektronik in Ludwigsburg. Further insight: http://bit.ly/cMw4f1 - Solid Q4 for PNDs, but ‘Free’ Navigation is Shaking Up Monetisation - John Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communication Service http://bit.ly/bMeg36 - Global Mobile Handset Navigation Forecast 2004-2014 - Nitesh Patel – Navigation and Location Opportunities http://bit.ly/8Yo4U6 - Nokia & Google Shake Up $3.8 B Handset Navigation Market - Nitesh Patel – Navigation and Location Opportunities http://bit.ly/6FC6W7 - Smartphone Market Developments Shaking Up Automotive Strategies - Lanctot - Automotive Multimedia and Communications

Where some see nothing but travail, others see opportunity. TomTom is among those in the latter group. As both TomTom and chief rival Garmin, in their recent earnings reports, admitted to flattening sales of standalone PNDs, the two have set out on divergent strategies.

 

For Garmin, the strategy is diversification emphasizing marine, aviation and outdoor recreation. TomTom, on the other hand, like an embattled ship captain at sea, is turning towards enemy fire – narrowing its focus on providing the best navigation/routing/traffic solution with connectivity as a wild card. In spite of the brilliance of its European strategy, though, the U.S. remains an Achilles heel for TomTom.

 

This week TomTom clarified its plans to implement a new open platform and push its connected device strategy. TomTom’s approach is not without risk, but no one can fault the company for being bold. When Google is breathing down your neck it is certainly time to be bold.

 

The cornerstone of the company’s new strategy is a reduction in the monthly fee for TomTom’s HD Traffic subscriptions from 9.95 Euro/month to 5 Euro/month. But there is much more to the campaign than a simple price cut.

 

First of all, TomTom is able to adjust its pricing because of a new deal with Vodafone. Where Vodafone had a revenue share in the past, it now receives a flat fee from TomTom. While the revenue share may have been satisfactory – as TomTom recruited 700,000 Live Service subscribers – the thinking is that the flat fee will make more sense for both parties as TomTom engages in a broad PND/navi connectivity campaign.

 

As part of the new campaign, purchasers of TomTom connected PNDs – beginning early in June (in Europe) -  will get a full year of free access to HD Traffic data. After that first free year, customers can subscribe at 5 Euro/month or annually for 49.99, a 10 Euro savings on the monthly subscription.

 

TomTom’s objective in launching this program is to increase the purchasing percentage of connected devices from 40% in 2010 to 60% in 2011 and 80% in 2012. Given the fact that the average PND/navi – by TomTom estimates – lasts 3-4 years before replacement, the company expects that 90% of its customers could be connected by 2014.

 

By TomTom’s estimates, that means a user population of more than 25M units reporting GPS probe data for traffic analysis on top of the existing Vodafone cellular hand-off data. TomTom and Strategy Analytics are certainly in agreement on a few things, chief among which is that traffic data is the single most important data element to navigation device users.

 

This analyst believes that TomTom’s HD Traffic is the industry standard for accurate traffic data. TomTom, not surprisingly, also believes this to be true and is expanding the scope of HD Traffic data to 16 European countries from 7, although the timeframe is unclear. Live Services will also be offered to a wider base of 14 European countries.

TomTom is a little unclear on which countries will get HD Traffic or Live Services and when. The company actually has a total of 30 countries set for Live Services launch within the next 12 months, 17 of which are expected to get HD Traffic.

 

Clearly, HD Traffic has become a key to TomTom’s strategy. It is a critical differentiator. But TomTom recognizes that competitors are working aggressively to integrate both their own cellular hand-off data inputs and GPS probe data. The new TomTom strategy appears to be targeted at cementing the company’s existing traffic leadership position ahead of the arrival of competitors.

 

TomTom’s Vodafone relationship is unique “force multiplier” for TomTom. The hand-off data not only gives TomTom an industry-leading traffic solution, it also opens doors to logistics business opportunities such as billboard, cell tower and store location and municipal and regional traffic management.

 

But TomTom’s ability to extend this advantage to the U.S. has run into intransigent U.S. carriers and existing players – AirSage and IntelliOne – that have already negotiated their own access to cellular hand-off data. This impasse is evidenced in the TomTom product plan which includes devices with “local” and “Euro-wide” data, but only a handful of models that merit a mention of U.S. data.

 

TomTom says its new campaign will eschew “ultra-low margin” products and price points and focus on mid-high segment products targeted at replacement buyers. The strategy appears to be an acknowledgement of two key issues:

 

#1 – PND/navi buyers are a unique breed and prone to replacement purchases. TomTom claims a high customer loyalty rate (80%) and clearly wants to win over Garmin customers.

#2 – Most of the growth in navigation is coming from mobile/smartphone and embedded navigation customers.

 

Which brings us to the final “fly-in-the-ointment” for TomTom. TomTom’s own market survey’s show traffic as the single most popular application for navigation customers, a finding corroborated by Strategy Analytics studies. TomTom also acknowledges in its own research that Google Search is the second most popular application.

 

While TomTom has opened up its platform – via its implementation of the Webkit OS – and plans to open an application store, the company will eventually have to reckon with Google. TomTom has no answer to the bottomless pit of POI data resident within Google.

 

TomTom’s community-based approach to map updates and POI data is a powerful answer to the strategies of OpenStreetMaps and Waze. But unless TomTom can find a POI or search partner to counter Google its bold new marketing campaign may come to naught.

 

Additional insights:

http://bit.ly/bMeg36 - Global Mobile Handset Navigation Forecast 2004-2014 – Nitesh Patel - Navigation and Location Opportunities http://bit.ly/aoQdpd - North America Mobile Handset Navigation Forecast 2004-2014 – Nitesh Patel – Wireless Media Strategies http://bit.ly/aHhWeV - Nokia & Google Shake Up $3.8 B Handset Navigation Market - Nitesh Patel - Wireless Media Strategies http://bit.ly/cc6O9K - PND Owners Unlikely to Discontinue Using Their Device - Chris Schreiner - Automotive Consumer Insights http://bit.ly/c5f65I - Automotive and Portable Navigation Market Forecast 2008-2016 - Joanne Blight - Automotive Multimedia and Communications Systems http://bit.ly/b5W8ZS - Nokia and RIM Push Into Automotive as ‘Apps’ Competition Mounts - Joanne Blight - Automotive Multimedia and Communications Systems http://bit.ly/9NoM13 - From Probes to Crowd to Community to Ads – Traffic Data Evolving Rapidly - Roger Lanctot - blog - Global Automotive Practice

TomTom interrupted the epitaph writers last week with a spunky earnings call and a stunning customer presentation ushering in a new portable navigation device architecture and strategy modeled on the mobile phone market. The earnings report was significant both for the company’s ability to parry analyst skepticism and its self bestowal of the title: “fastest growing European telematics company.”

 

Skepticism surrounding TomTom’s ability to continue to grow and do so in a profitable manner was laid to rest by the Q1 2010 report which showed a 26% increase in revenue and a profit. The revenue gain came in spite of declining PND sales overall with TomTom claiming market share gains in Europe and North America.

 

The skepticism was expressed by multiple analysts on the earnings call repeatedly questioning the short- and long-term impact on TomTom of smartphone navigation. TomTom executives were quick to point out that 10M navigation application downloads, as reported by Nokia, did not directly translate into regular, daily use of smartphones for navigation.

 

TomTom’s broader survival strategy became clearer from a quick review of the earnings report which showed its non-consumer lines of business – a newly created categy – capturing 31% of revenue in Q1 ’10, up from 24% in ’09. The non-consumer segments consist of TomTom Work, licensing and the automotive business. (TomTom reports a 40% attach rate for its solution at Renault and claims 10% automotive market share as its solution is extended to additional Fiat and Renault models.)

 

TomTom Work showed 41% subscriber growth year-on-year to 104,000, well short of the 300,000 subscribers targeted for 2011, but enough to justify TomTom’s claim of being the “Fastest Growing Telematics Company in Europe.” The figure is even more important when one considers this is one of the highest gross margin businesses in TomTom’s portfolio, according to the company.

 

To round out the rosy picture TomTom pointed to the 700,000 Live Service enabled devices currently in use by consumers enabling a range of service and content transactions (including sharing of traffic and speed cam data), all of which are also exceptionally profitable to TomTom, again according to the company. With its newly announced webkit architecture strategy and adoption of the smartphone app store model (http://bit.ly/9q1jIV), TomTom hopes to build this user base.

 

An interesting note to this effort to build the TomTom user base is the fact that TomTom says it will no longer provide quarterly reports of device unit sales or average selling prices. The reason for this reticence is the company’s stated intention to alter its business model to build the base of users. Clearly TomTom is alluding to the potential for subsidizing sales of PNDs along the mobile phone model – a strategy long toyed with by the industry but never fully adopted.

 

TomTom did not specifically confirm its intention to subsidize PND sales. But this interpretation is supported by the somewhat ambiguous comments expressed in the earnings call and in the context of its plans to build its subscriber base.

 

Once TomTom has brought its open platform and app store model completely into the marketplace, expect subsidized devices, particularly among the new, simplified TomTom Ease line. The objective is to build a larger user base producing a wider range of shared location information which will become increasingly accurate (traffic) and useful (user evaluations) as the subscriber community grows.

 

TomTom’s aim is to achieve daily relevance from daily usage by a wide subscriber base. To further hedge its bets TomTom is adding new automotive relationships – such as Ford’s announced intention to use TomTom maps and content – and continuing its expansion into emerging markets (Ukraine, Morocco, Mexico, and India) where further PND growth is expected. The pieces are falling into place for Europe’s fastest growing telematics company, which has chased away the skeptics once again.

 

Further Insight:

 

http://bit.ly/cMw4f1 - Solid Q4 for PNDs, but 'Free' Navigation is Shaking Up Monetisation - John Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communication Service

 

http://bit.ly/bMeg36 - Global Mobile Handset Navigation Forecast 2004-2014 - Nitesh Patel – Navigation and Location Opportunities

 

http://bit.ly/8Yo4U6 - Nokia & Google Shake Up $3.8 B Handset Navigation Market - Nitesh Patel – Navigation and Location Opportunities

Telmap has flipped the switch on its direct to consumer smartphone navigation strategy shifting entirely to the white label approach the company has pursued for many years with operators. The company expects the new positioning to give it a competitive edge vis a vis Nokia and Google and vault it into a global leadership position.

 

Prospects were looking bleak for Telmap when industry heavyweights Google and Nokia began offering free navigation applications for smartphones. Google made the application available as a download for iPhones and, more recently, Android-based phones, while Nokia recently began including navigation on its handsets.

 

The Telmap strategy overturns both of these approaches by working through wireless operators, a strategy pursued by both TeleNav and Networks in Motion (now part of TeleCommunications Systems) in the U.S. But Telmap is taking the approach on the road with partners throughout Europe, Asia and Latin America.

 

Telmap is taking a three pronged approach providing:

 

1)      An off-board application with local search and navigation that can function with all operating systems;

2)      A location platform with APIs to facilitate the distribution of any and all location applictions;

3)      A Web-based application that allows for desktop management of location applications and synchronization with the phone.

 

The initial launch of the new positioning will manifest in O2 Germany delivering 30 handsets by the end of May all equipped with the Telmap technology. In fact, Telmap says it is already seeing 500-1000 new activations per day based on the new approach.

 

The white label is ideally suited to the shift, in Europe, to a bundled model for applications and services. Navigation is increasingly being provided at no charge, so the model has shifted to enabling different billing and payment methods for selling enhanced content and applications.

 

The white label strategy gives Telmap a strategic edge because it allows the operators to introduce a cross-platform solution that can be advertised and promoted across their entire handset line-up regardless of handset supplier or operating system. Telmap hopes operator support will help juice its subscriber base, which currently stands at approximately 1M in Europe and 1.5M globally.

 

And operators are keenly interested in exploiting the location opportunity because, thus far, the margins have been quite high, according to Telmap executives. To keep that revenue flowing, Telmap is enabling integration with ultra local content and services such as Coyote safety camera apps in France and road charging services in the U.K.

 

Additionally, the free Telmap application allows for premium upsells and a variety of booking and payment methods along with advertising. And by using the same platform across the entire line, operators retain control and customers can communicate and network with one another.

 

The gamble for Telmap is that the operator-centric approach will trump the Nokia handset-side approach and the Google app-store strategy. The concept of leveraging operator advertising and promotional support is a powerful one. Google tried to take its Nexus One handset directly to the market only to knuckle under to operators in the past week.

 

The strength of the strategy is reflected in the tight relationships between Networks in Motion/Verizon and TeleNav and AT&T/T-Mobile/Sprint in the U.S. These partners are working on additional enhancements to the navigation and location platform which is producing millions of subscribers and hundreds of millions in revenue.

 

From a branding standpoint, location applications will come to define and differentiate the operators and a cross-platform solution makes it much easier to leverage and control. The attraction of the Telmap approach is already apparent as the company touts among its operator supporters: Vodafone, O2 Telefonica, Orange Group, Singtel Group, IUSACell, Pelephone, Cellcom, Mobilcom, and Boost Mobile, among others.

 

Of course, tiny Telmap is taking on industry giants in Nokia and Google and regardless of the strength of its strategy lacks the brand awareness and marketing clout of either of these companies. But the shift away from a consumer direct strategy to white label is probably the last best chance for Telmap to move into the front rank of LBS market leaders. And the company is investing heavily in ultra-local tie ins across the many countries around the world where it competes.

 

Wild cards remain in the battle for dominance of the location aware marketplace. One such wild card is the creation of superior traffic information from probe data. Google’s initial efforts to convert Droid phone user data is beginning to get attention and RIM (following its QNX acquisition) is likely to be the next company to bring a probe-enhanced traffic service to the market. Nokia (Navteq) and Apple will likely be next leaving Telmap to ponder whether it can convert its operator relationships into a superior traffic solution of its own.

 

With the smartphone navigation market ruled as it is by a confluence of advancing technology and consumer preferences, only two things are certain: change and Telmap’s determination not to raise the white flag.

 

Further Insight:

 

http://bit.ly/cMw4f1 - Solid Q4 for PNDs, but 'Free' Navigation is Shaking Up Monetisation - John Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communication Service

 

http://bit.ly/bMeg36 - Global Mobile Handset Navigation Forecast 2004-2014 - Nitesh Patel – Navigation and Location Opportunities

 

http://bit.ly/8Yo4U6 - Nokia & Google Shake Up $3.8 B Handset Navigation Market - Nitesh Patel – Navigation and Location Opportunities

I have been using TomTom’s XXL 540S World Traveler for the past two months in multiple locations in the U.S. as well as in the U.K., Germany and France and I can safely say this is a dangerous device. It is dangerous because it effectively leverages historic speed profile data to deliver accurate routing and travel time without live traffic data. The XXL 540S is dangerous because the effectiveness of its routing, without accessing live traffic data of any kind, turns the growing traffic data industry on its head. The historic speed profile data calculates routes based on historic speed measurements for every time of day and for every road segment, from large highways to small local roads, and includes TomTom’s IQ Routes technology. In comparison to on-board systems with enhanced traffic data, the routing and time of travel on the TomTom was comparable. I am sure I am not the only user of navigation devices and technologies who has been frustrated with the traffic information experience. I have had both positive and negative outcomes and, in spite of the negatives, I am still a believer in the power and necessity of traffic information. I recently steered clear of purchasing an opening price point PND for the very reason that it lacked traffic information. But sometimes, one is willing to accept sacrifices to achieve a greater good. In this case, that greater good is a single device for automotive navigation in North America and Europe. The sacrifice of traffic data is a small price to pay especially considering what the cost of adding traffic information for both geographies would likely represent in added subscription fees covering multiple suppliers. (Hint: The first traffic supplier with a universal solution will gain a huge advantage.) For anyone seeking a single device for vehicle navigation in North America and Europe with built-in traffic camera data and 7M POIs, the XXL 540S is ideal. (The device was even able to locate a runner’s specialty store buried in a mall in Sindelfingen, Germany, as well as functioning in a pedestrian mode trying to locate the next nearest towns in the French countryside outside Geneva.) On the downside, a shortcoming of the device is its rigid programming. It is not possible to use it as one would Google maps to pick a starting point and destination unrelated to a current location, for example. A more flexible solution will be necessary as user expectations change. If PNDs like the XXL 540S cannot offer functional equivalence to other navigation solutions, consumers will be disappointed. Switching between maps is also less than intuitive. But I can understand TomTom’s disinclination to add yet another layer to its busy user interface. When entering a destination for a new geography, the user eventually has the option to change the map. The device stores prior routes separately for each different map, which is a nice touch. In addition, the integration of user evaluations so widely available in competing connected solutions certainly pose a threat to disconnected PNDs like the TomTom device. But as a single function device, the XXL 540S delivers in spite of the missing traffic info and connectivity.. For the XXL 540S World Traveler the combination of on-board data and the access to software updates perfectly substitutes for a more robust offering of regionalized live traffic information. More importantly, the device points the way toward future product development at TomTom and other PND makers. The pocketable device (yes, even with a five-inch display) is convenient enough for world travel and amazingly, the user will make no sacrifices in POI content or even map updates – additional POIs can be added via the Home application. The device connects to the TomTom Home software application for map updates and other enhancements. Flash has clearly displaced the HDD as the preferred storage medium for PNDs and the XXL 540S has 4GB of storage. At $299.99 retail (a little pricy) the device also includes TomTom’s “Help Me!” button and lane guidance. The TomTom even showed a roundabout where the on-board system against which it was being compared only showed a standard intersection. Of course, with the map update capability, the TomTom should always have superior map data. Even as PND makers experiment with larger screens, as in the case of the XXL 540S, the devices themselves will get smaller and prices will continue to fall. Connectivity and more creative deployment of location-aware applications will be critical to the future success of the segment. Additional Insights: http://bit.ly/cMw4f1 Solid Q4 for PNDs, but ‘Free’ Navigation is Shaking Up Monetization (AMCS) – Canali http://bit.ly/a8WqRJ - A Role for PNDs…If They Get Connected - Blight http://bit.ly/c5f65I - Automotive and Portable Navigation Market Forecast 2008-2016 (AMCS) - Blight

TomTom was once the darling of the portable navigation market, charging onto the scene with innovative marketing and product offerings and buoyed by strong market growth driven by Europe’s world-leading embrace of navigation devices. The latest earnings results from both TomTom and chief rival Garmin, however, paint a picture of a hot hardware market segment hitting a plateau.

 

Is it game over for TomTom? How did the company peak so soon? Where has the growth in the PND segment gone? It is my contention that one reason for the current decline in prospects derives from the company’s shift to a closed platform back in 2005 more aligned with rival Garmin.

 

TomTom captured the imagination of consumers and industry observers in the early days of the PND market with innovative solutions that included one of the first major crowd sourcing exercises in the form of its TomTom Live services which included map updates provided by users. The power of the TomTom Live platform was such that TomTom was able to build a more than million-strong user community whose enthusiasm was reflected in both the millions of map updates and corrections they contributed along with the navigation voices they recorded and shared.

 

It’s hard to overstate the power of the kind of customer connection TomTom achieved with the TomTom Live service. In effect, TomTom solved the challenge of map updating years before any other organization in any other segment had come up with an answer - with the exception of server-based solutions. In the most recent earnings call, the company says it intends to offer map updates on a 48-hour cycle, instead of the industry-standard quarterly updates – once again, setting an industry standard.

 

TomTom continued to build momentum – let’s call it “mojo” - by capitalizing on the critical importance of traffic and routing applications adding its HD Traffic and IQ Routes enhancements. The company led the way in connected PNDs claiming 900,000 units sold in the past fiscal year and laying claim to 400,000 combined paying or on-trial-period subscribers, admittedly below company objectives.

 

But something fell apart in the past year. Evidence of the performance shortfall included the inability to successfully convince a sufficient number of consumers to pay 10 Euro/month for traffic data, even if it was demonstrably superior to competing traffic data. But the one-two punch of flattening sales and declining ASPs in 2009 have combined to deflate TomTom’s (and Garmin’s) prospects forcing the company to turn more aggressively toward non-PND sources of revenue including embedded and smartphone-based solutions.

 

Both Garmin and TomTom reported tepid financial results two weeks ago and offered cautious forecasts for flat PND sales in 2010. Both Garmin and TomTom attempted to dismiss to some extent the impact of smartphone-based navigation solutions. TomTom, in particular, claimed the three different navigation platforms – embedded automotive, smartphone and PND – are not “mutually exclusive” and “somehow strengthen each other.”

 

Both Garmin and TomTom are targeting mobile applications with TomTom making its traffic solution available for the iPhone along with an iPhone mounting kit for in-vehicle use – a wise strategy of embracing rather than confronting competition. Both companies are also pursuing automotive opportunities with TomTom’s most recent design wins coming at Renault and Fiat. Interestingly, Fiat showed new TomTom solutions at the Geneva Motor Show while also showing a mobile phone mount concept from Magneti Marelli for Nokia navigation phones.

 

Very much overlooked in TomTom’s run up to its dominant position in the European PND market was the company’s offering of a software developer kit. But the company abandoned the open platform approach in 2005, while driving innovation almost entirely internally along with some targeted acquisitions.

 

TomTom was first in developing a connected user community willing to correct map data and POIs and share favorite routes and voices. These users also demonstrated that there was a market for content that could be downloaded to TomTom devices. Sound familiar? This is exactly the model adopted by most major handset makers in the past year following the wildly successful Apple iPhone.

 

The big difference between these handset makers and TomTom is that smartphones are based on open platforms for which independent software developers can create new applications. It probably isn’t too late for TomTom to change its approach to the market, opening up its platform to third-party content and application developers. This could well be the key to turning around the bleak numbers reported in the most recent quarter.

 

A growing range of new applications from third-party suppliers can add functionality and value to a TomTom device over time, in contrast to the usual perceived decline in value over time of a typical consumer electronic product. Apple, Google and others are demonstrating daily that there is mojo in open platforms. It’s not too late for TomTom to dial in.

CSR is capitalizing on the strength of its GPS line up acquired from SiRF to garner automotive segment wins for its Bluetooth and Wi-Fi solutions, according to the company’s latest earnings report. In its fourth quarter and full year earnings report last week, CSR reported a revenue increase of 149% for its automotive and PND segment. With the addition of SiRF, the combined automotive and PND division now accounts for 21% of total company revenue vs. 7% in the prior year. CSR said fourth quarter demand was strong as a result of the increasing volume of new cars being built and a general move to embed more connectivity and location technologies in those new cars. CSR, which is better known for its dominant position in the handset Bluetooth market, claims combined Bluetooth and GPS leadership in the automotive market. The company also noted it had secured a design-win at a Tier 1 automotive supplier for its latest generation Wi-Fi, the UF6000. The company noted weak PND demand in Europe and the U.S. which was compensated for by increased levels of demand in the Far East and the developing world. CSR announced a design-win for a leading North American electronics manufacturer’s new connected PNDs where CSR is providing both GPS and Bluetooth. In Europe, CSR secured a design-win with Vincotech for new GPS modules and telematics product platforms. CSR says its SiRFPrima high-end SoC platform focused on the in-dash automotive market also received two design-wins in China expected to lead to significant volumes. Overall, CSR says its has begun mass production and shipping of its Wi-Fi/BT/FM connectivity platform; a GPS design win for a N. Am. smartphone maker; and BT and FM design wins for Tier One handset makers. CSR sees “positive trends” in the adoption of wireless connectivity technologies by the automotive sector.  Many vehicles already feature Bluetooth and GPS and the company believes Wi-Fi is a next step. The most important development for CSR in 2009 was that automotive emerged as a substantial third market segment, picking up slack from the company’s audio and consumer segment which saw revenue nearly halved during the year. CSR is now poised to leverage its complete wireless portfolio of Bluetooth, GPS, FM, NFC and Wi-Fi to address emerging automotive opportunities. For additional Strategy Analytics perspectives on in-vehicle connectivity: Global Automotive Vehicle-Device Connectivity Forecast 2008-2016 - http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportFormatsViewer&a0=5289 Vehicle-Device Connectivity to Drive Adoption of CD-Less Systems - http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=5293

Motorola brought an impressive new connected portable navigation device to the Consumer Electronics Show last week. It is the first unit built around Airbiquity's in-band modem technology which enables a variety of first-time connectivity features on a PND. And the user interface offers some unique elements worthy of emulation by competitors as well. In the end, however, despite having conquered technology challenges in bringing this innovative device to market, the greatest challenge facing Motorola when the product becomes available later this year, will be gaining shelfspace position at retail in a consolidating segment. The first-time list of features on the Motonav TN700 includes a wide-screen 5.1" display, Bing411 voice-enabled business search, Caller ID for announcing in-bound callers, a scrolling list of POIs that appears on the left hand side of the screen as they are passed by the device, speed camera alerts from Cobra (a capability beginning to show up on other new PNDs), and direct entry of addresses (ie. street number, name, etc.). The Airbiquity in-band modem enables the inclusion of a bundle of services called MotoExtras - free for the first 3 months - including weather, gas prices, flight status, etc. Google Search is also accessible for locating POIs. Traffic data is provided by Navteq free for the life of the device as part of Traffic.com's ad-supported business model. The price of the device has not yet been set, but will likely be in the mid- to high-end range. The speed camera data and MotoExtras will be subject to annual subscription and bundling offers both yet to be determined. The real challenge for Motorola, though, will be gaining a foothold in retail stores where Garmin and TomTom have been adding SKUs to their assortments pushing aside second and third tier brands. According to one industry assessment, the two brands account for 63% of all retail shelfspace, up from 55% a year ago. Motorola currently has 1.8% share in the U.S. Further complicating Motorola's retail ambitions is the low-end orientation of the PND market, with as much as 75%-80% of sales coming from entry-level models, the expected re-emergence of Magellan and Mio later this spring, and Best Buy's ongoing ambitions in the connected PND segment. Related content: Connected PND Database: http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=5213 Automotive and Portable Navigation Forecast: http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=4785