Next week American Honda Motors will introduce its 2011 Odyssey at the Los Angeles Auto Show. The car comes equipped with what the company calls FM Traffic. This seemingly innocuous announcement marks a shift in the industry with wide ranging implications for both automotive radio and on-board traffic information.

Auto makers are confronting major decisions regarding content delivery to the car and the configuration of the center stack. The battle lines for content delivery divide over the question of embedding a telecommunications module or connecting the driver’s smartphone. Smartphone connectivity shifts the data plan burden onto the driver, while embedding allows wider latitude for vehicle data collection by the OEM.

The radio is the beating heart of the center stack and here a struggle is unfolding between and among traditional AM/FM technology, HD Radio, satellite radio and Internet radio. The battlelines are drawn over content delivery, personalization, localization, monetization and flexibility. Honda’s FM Traffic is based on RDS-TMC, a free (to the consumer) traffic data service delivered over the FM sideband. RDS-TMC represents the state of the art in North America for delivering accurate and timely information on traffic conditions. The Honda solution is unique in that it is supplied by the Broadcast Traffic Consortium (BTC), a nationwide group of broadcasters allied with Navteq.

The industry will have to wait until next week to see how Honda has implemented incident and flow messages, but it is likely that Honda and its supplier, Alpine, have added value to the traffic reporting proposition (http://automobiles.honda.com/traffic/). Alpine will also be bringing the BTC RDS-TMC solution to its aftermarket products. Honda is only the second North American OEM to deploy RDS-TMC from BTC, following Mercedes-Benz. More are expected.

The dominant RDS-TMC supplier in North America is Clear Channel, which is partnered with Inrix. The Clear Channel solution is offered by BMW, Volvo, Mazda and a few other OEMs. Honda’s decision is significant given that the company also offers Sirius XM’s NavTraffic service, which requires a monthly subscription. But Honda’s choice reflects several hard truths for the industry:

Truth #1 – The value of traffic data is declining. Once valued at $1/user/month, traffic data has declined in value to 25 cents/user/month or less at the supplier level. For the consumer, traffic information is perceived as free – especially since so much of it is readily available over radio and television broadcast sources as well as from Depts. of Transportation via the Internet. RDS-TMC traffic information is also free (to the consumer) and, therefore, fits this model and mindset.

Truth #2 – RDS-TMC traffic data is better than good enough. Anyone who has used RDS-TMC-equipped navigation systems in a heavy traffic corridor can attest to its accuracy and reliability. Satellite radio traffic information, by comparison, is not competitive – based on this analyst’s experiences. (Some European RDS-TMC data, Germany in particular, is the exception to this.)

Truth #3 – Traffic information services continue to evolve and improve and service providers must evolve along with them. While HD Radio deployment of TPEG traffic data services will be the next step, it will be followed quickly by solutions based on smartphone integration and, ultimately, embedded traffic data platforms that provide for Internet connectivity. All of this is bad news for Sirius XM. The company is already wrestling two alligators – a transition of existing Sirius users to XM service by 2016 (see http://bit.ly/bIWHJ6) and the introduction of Satellite Radio 2.0 in Q4 2011 (see http://bit.ly/bqiU7F).

While managing these two processes, the company is also justifying its existence on a quarterly basis before its investors as a public company.   Traffic data services are key to Sirius XM because they represent the most successful telematics service the company has been able to deliver. Unfortunately, because of the capacity limitations (traffic data for all cities must be delivered down a single connection leading to data being left out due to capacity limitations or delayed due to the carousel-like data transmission) and one-way nature of the satellite pipe, Sirius XM traffic is poor.  

In fact, Sirius XM traffic, based as it is on Navteq’s Traffic.com, has given Navteq’s data service a bad reputation – through no fault of Navteq’s. (This is not to be confused with the city-by-city audio traffic broadcasts provided by Metro Traffic.) Honda’s selection of BTC RDS-TMC is a shot in the arm for Navteq’s traffic team which is looking to bounce back from its reliance on Sirius XM.  The subscriber volume for satellite traffic has been poor as a result of the poor data. Some OEMs do not even offer satellite traffic for their satellite radio systems. This points to a wider problem for satellite radio. The company has yet to find a successful model for branching out beyond talk and music.  

Both Sirius TV (Chrysler) and TravelLink (Ford) are seen in the industry as failed services due to low subscriber volumes. Of course, the business models were also flawed. Sirius TV only offered three channels of rearseat entertainment, a fatal limitation, and most of the TravelLink services – for parking or inexpensive gas – are available on smartphone apps.  Now Sirius XM is setting the stage for Satellite Radio 2.0. In a report to LibertyMedia shareholders last month, CEO Mel Karmazin tipped his hand a bit by referencing the possibility of transmitting local movie times and/or red-light camera info to drivers via satellite radio. He also mentioned enhanced time-shifting technology, presumably from storing or buffering some satellite content.  Other reports regarding Satellite Radio 2.0 suggest more sophisticated search functions for finding particular artists or songs that may be playing at any given time across the voluminous satellite radio dial. Some industry sources say SR 2.0 is expected to have 25% more capacity. It’s not clear whether any of these SR 2.0 possibilities are true, possible or even compelling to future subscribers. 

But Karmazin has a compelling story for investors. He told them last month that OEM penetration of satellite radio as a percentage of new cars was 60% and that the number of satellite radio factory-enabled vehicles in operation in North America was approximately 30M and on a path to hit 80M by 2015. For this reason, the company is continuing to promote certified preowned vehicle programs for satellite radio re-activation – which is seen as a key to future growth.  Karmazin further notes that Sirius XM has some of the lowest subscriber churn in the media landscape (1.8%), has one of the largest subscriber bases (19.5M, second only to Comcast), and now captures 15% of overall radio revenue ($2.8B) vs. $15B for terrestrial radio, and ~$1B for Internet radio/music services. He also notes that satellite radio’s subscriber revenue is $2.8B vs. ~$300M for Internet radio which translates to per subscriber revenue (annual 2009 est.) of $136 vs. $1.25/user for Internet radio and $10-$20/listener for terrestrial radio. 

Conclusions  It’s worth noting that Karmazin made no reference to either HD Radio or to Sirius XM’s stated transition to XM by 2016. While the present looks promising for Sirius XM in the form of rising vehicle sales and the launch of new certified pre-owned vehicle programs, the long-term outlook is less rosy.  The wider deployment of competing and free traffic services should put the last nail in the coffin of Sirius XM’s telematics ambitions. Embedded telematics services and smartphone connectivity, combined with FM- and HD Radio-based solutions, will obviate the need for any Sirius XM data services.  A new front end to Sirius XM’s audio content will provide a short-term lift in allowing for easier access to specific types of music. And premium sports and personality content remain a demand wild card and, combined with nationwide reception, preserve the satellite value proposition.   But car makers are still not likely to integrate satellite radio into the core of their center stack platforms, meaning satellite radio will remain an add-on, particularly given ongoing system upgrades. In a matter of years, cars will be shifting to Internet connected solutions allowing for personalization and location awareness, two propositions with which satellite radio cannot compete. Additional insights: http://bit.ly/dniNxa - Navigation Heuristic Evaluation: Telmap5 – Schreiner – Automotive Consumer Insights http://bit.ly/95NCoW - Automotive DMB Digital Radio: Marketing Strategies an Increasing Priority – Blight – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/dtRE5C - Automotive Telematics Services: Shifts in Pricing and Monetization Expected – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/bwdwcW - Connected Vehicle and Vehicle Device Connectivity System Database by Feature, Region, and Price 2010 – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/d0aLhq - Connected Vehicle Telematics: Car Maker Profiles – Canali – Aumotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/deumcd -# Traffic Data Quality Will Determine #Telematics Winners - Lanctot - blog - Strategy Analytics

Retention is the key to the imminent rise of usage-based insurance. More accurate rating and customer acquisition may be the immediate motivations for insurance companies, but only customer retention has the power to transform the industry – and reduce carbon emissions in the process. These conclusions were clear from the Telematics Update Insurance Telematics event two weeks ago in Chicago. Returning home from the event, though, I was soon inundated with the daily tidal wave of car insurance advertisements on U.S. television. The multiple offers of the deepest discounts, lowest deductibles and superior service seemed like far more relevant messages to me as a consumer than the proposition of allowing the insurance company to monitor my driving behavior. Allowing an insurance company to monitor my behavior, to me, sounds like a particular circle of Hell inconceivable to even the vivid imagination of Dante. What I was forgetting in this kneejerk reaction is the equal and opposite force within me (or most consumers I presume) that is powerfully drawn to any discount – no matter how small – particularly if it is associated with cheaper car insurance – a product one pays handsomely for and hopes never to use. (Because if you use it you may lose it or end up paying more for it in the future.) The offers on television from Progressive, Nationwide, AllState, State Farm, Farmers and others addressed all of my concerns as a consumer. There were discounted rates earned by parents extended to teenage children. There were deductibles that decline over time when there are no claims. There were offers to top competing discounts. UBI insurance offers the prospect of cutting through the advertising clutter with a message that has the power to draw in new drivers while making them long-term committed subscribers in the process. On the surface, usage-based insurance looks like an expensive proposition (for the insurer) built around the concept of providing discounts to an insurance company’s best customers, according to multiple presenters at the Insurance Telematics event. So let me get this straight:  As an insurer I am going to spend millions of dollars to create a data acquisition and management system and deploy wireless monitoring devices all so I can charge my customers less money? It truly sounds crazy, until one understands the challenges of providing insurance. (No tears, please.) The insurance industry has few reliable tools to offer consumers proper insurance rates. What to the consumer appears to be a generally expensive product is priced based on an opaque process based on age, gender and location and a limited amount of driving history such as infractions, accidents and mileage. The industry was recently revolutionized by the deployment of credit scoring as a rating tool. Not surprisingly, credit bureaus featured prominently among attendees at the Insurance Telematics event. Credit scores, the early insurance company pioneers such as Progressive discovered, were an excellent segmentation tool and proxy for assessing risk. Possessing a more accurate tool for determining risk meant that underwriters using this tool could confidently justify deeper discounts than competitors and they won truckloads of business as a result. Of course, competitors soon learned about the new risk proxy and all companies began using credit scores for segmentation and risk analysis. Usage-based insurance is the new proxy and insurance companies are wary of missing a competitive advantage. From presentations at the event it is clear that the early movers in UBI insurance have learned that the process must be as simple as possible. As a result, Progressive has shifted from an OBDII plug-in device that had to be removed and connected to a consumer’s computer, to a wireless module the customer can plug in and forget. (Progressive has already moved on to the next incarnation as well, read on.) Similarly, Octo Telematics, the European pioneer of UBI insurance with more than 1M subscribers via multiple insurance partners, has introduced a device that clamps onto a car battery. This is an alternative to a device that was professionally (and expensively) installed on the vehicle and provided additional services such as stolen vehicle recovery. Multiple exhibitors at Insurance Telematics touted Bluetooth-based or cellular-based OBDII connections for extracting vehicle data – including Directed Electronics, Zoomsafer, Telenor, Walsh Wireless, Numerex, SmartDrive, Scope Technologies, Matrix Technologies, Xact Technologies and Octo Telematics. (Attendees actively discussed word of legal action between Hughes Telematics and insurance and device providers and others over the use of wireless technology for acquiring vehicle data via the OBDII port. Some companies are reported to have settled with Hughes or, as in the case of Progressive, countersued. Suffice it to say that the intellectual property underpinnings of insurance telematics are unresolved.) The powerful interest of consumers in obtaining discounted insurance taken together with the newfound ability of insurance companies to offer discounts based on more accurate risk segmentation is the motivating force behind a revolution poised to sweep the industry. But why is there little or no advertising of UBI insurance in the U.S. when Progressive has been in the game for 12 years? (European advertising of UBI insurance is widespread.) The answer is simple: The insurance industry is governed by 50 different state authorities, some of whom, such as Pennsylvania, have challenged the rating models and others that simply haven’t made their final ruling. (Pennsylvania withheld approval based on their requirement that Progressive disclose the details of there rating model.) Progressive’s SnapShot product is currently available in 23 states. Another learning from the early UBI movers has been that the device need not be indefinitely installed in the vehicle. Insurers active in UBI have learned that a limited time (ie. one month? six months?) “snapshot” of a driver’s driving behavior is sufficient to assess risk and applicable discount. The SnapShot approach also means the device can be removed and plugged into another customer's vehicle for yet another driver assessment.  Of course, this same snapshot is also key to determining which drivers qualify – and insurers have found that not all drivers are suited to UBI programs. As speakers at the Insurance Telematics event repeatedly said: Everyone thinks they are an above-average driver, but only 50% of those can be correct. The key to success in UBI insurance will be to move early. Insurers feel an overpowering need to deploy systems absolutely as quickly as they can because the likelihood is that the first module a customer installs will be his or her last. Once the insurer learns that customer’s driving behavior and can accurately and affordably underwrite their risk, the customer is unlikely to switch insurers. The competing insurer will always be at a disadvantage, not knowing the customer’s driving behavior. For this reason, the industry is struggling to move very quickly in the U.S. in spite of the state regulators and IP issues. UBI has the ability to change the balance of power in the industry and no company wants to be left disarmed. Conclusion: This battle has just begun. Insurers are likely to package offerings built around comprehensive portfolios of driver services such as roadside assistance, navigation and maybe even stolen vehicle recovery to say nothing of on-scene claims reporting – all built around the modules they are bringing to cars. UBI insurance will not only transform the insurance underwriting industry, it also has the potential to alter the relationships between insurers and OEMs. Insurers that deploy telematics systems are in a position to threaten OEM relationships with their own dealers and consumers. Wireless carriers too have skin in the game as insurance applications are already deployed to mobile phone platforms. Insurance companies have powerful leverage over the customer and cannot be ignored by any of these parties and the mobile phone is an alternative path for a UBI deployment. UBI insurance will rapidly achieve ubiquity nationwide. The prospect of obtaining discounts based on driving behavior will lead to some actual improvements in driving behavior but, mainly, it will contribute to a reduction in driving activity overall, which may be the best outcome of UBI deployment. In the end, the insurance industry will achieve the road charging objective of reducing carbon emissions (a Federal goal) which will forever be politically beyond the reach of  Federal authorities. Additional Insights:http://bit.ly/aWhNuC - Automotive Sensor Demand Forecast 2008 to 2017: Global Economic Rebound Sparks Growth - Mark Fitzgerald - Automotive Electronics Service http://bit.ly/9QCIVw - Automotive Sensor Demand Forecast 2008 to 2017: Global Economic Rebound Sparks Growth - Datatables - Mark Fitzgerald - Automotive Electronics Service http://bit.ly/c0OLhT - Consumer Implications for Smartphone-Vehicle Connectivity  - Chris Schreiner - Automotive Consumer Insights http://bit.ly/c1nvTq - Consumer Interest High for Connected Safety and Security Services - Chris Schreiner - Automotive Consumer Insights http://bit.ly/9PUqjp - UBI Market Poised for Growth - John Canali - Automotive Multimedia & Communications

In these times of economic travail it’s hard to believe that car makers are leaving money on the table, but they are and they have for many years. With car makers and carriers wailing about how to get consumers to pay for content and services a very obvious multi-million dollar (Euro?, Yen?) opportunity for add-on business for dealers and for the OEMs themselves has been left undisturbed – and Roadside Telematics has the answer. The amazing thing is that Roadside Telematics has been around beating a drum for its RoadMedic solution for more than 10 years – adding endorsements and winning awards – but failing to achieve much OEM recognition beyond Ford and Kia. The interesting thing is that this telematics solution requires no box, no call center, no fancy wireless connection, but it does require a smidgen of customer consent and a communications link to the National Law Enforcement Telecommunications System (NLETS) – the same communications network leveraged by LoJack and OnStar for their stolen vehicle solutions. The beautiful thing about RoadMedic is that it solves an age old problem for dealer and car maker alike: how to capture the crash parts and vehicle replacement business opportunity from new and existing customers that have gotten into accidents. A damaged or totaled car can mean a lot of things to a dealer, the vehicle owner or the car maker. A damaged or totaled car can mean a chance to sell a new car or repair an existing car (still under a lease or other financing) with genuine, authorized parts. It can also mean the opportunity to provide roadside assistance and/or a loaner vehicle both of which services are already provided for in existing warranties or OEM sponsored roadside assistance plans, though the customer may not realize it. In others words, it is a customer service opportunity. The primary purpose of the RoadMedic solution, as made clear by its name, is to deliver emergency contact information to police officers responding to accident scenes. The problem is that due to a wide range of circumstances the amount of time that elapses, on average in the U.S., before family members can be notified is six hours. Roadside Telematics has secured the support and assistance of the American Association of State Highway and Traffic Officials along with a variety of other health and safety affiliated organizations including: HIMSS, IEEE, AHIMA, IHE, CCHIT, HITSP and GHSA to encourage the OEMs to collaborate and cooperate on the development and deployment of a nationwide emergency contact locator system, like RoadMedic. RoadMedic allows dealers to reach out to customers, with their consent and at their request, in the event of accidents to provide necessary services thereby strengthening the brand message. It’s a patented business proposition that Roadside Telematics calls “reverse retailing.”  The Roadside business model is dependent upon customers providing their emergency contact information at the dealership point of sale. The business model calls for OEMs to pay Roadside Telematics on a per-vehicle basis which is included in the wholesale delivered price to the dealership, similar to the existing business model for OEM sponsored roadside assistance.It is hard to believe, but in an age of proliferating vehicle connectivity, cars can automatically notify public authorities of an emergency situation, but there remains no provision for expediting a connection to family members or other designated emergency contacts. OnStar rolled out a system nearly 10 years ago with a partner called Global Med-Net. But the Med-Net solution – customer endorsements of which are still visible on the company’s Website – was fax based and overreached somewhat by trying to integrate medical information. The Roadside Telematics solution is officially characterized as handling health information in the form of emergency contacts. The Med-Net solution, in contrast, sought to include important medical history. This complicated the point-of-sale paperwork and when combined with the fax-based portion of the notification process proved fatal to the program. It was terminated in 2002. The Roadside solution will allow police officers using NLETS to tap into both the RoadMedic emergency contact database and DMV databases to locate appropriate emergency contacts – providing a critical customer service. In fact, it is an even more reliable service than existing embedded telematics systems or even mobile phones because the notification is based on the police look-up of the VIN# and not on an unpredictable carrier connection.But it is the accident aftercare opportunity that is most intriguing for dealers. A customer will be able to call the dealer for accident aftercare services such as towing or to obtain a replacement car. Today, most customers are provided a wallet-sized Roadside Assistance card which is often misplaced. Worse, the average customer does not even think of adding the roadside assistance card to their wallet or purse. At point of sale the customer can opt in for this accident aftercare and, in the event of an accident, the dealer will get an accident vehicle sales lead – which is where the patented reverse retailing model comes into play. The dealer then has the option to contact the customer to offer to repair the vehicle, with authorized parts, or replace it and/or to provide a loaner vehicle. Roadside Telematics estimates net average OEM results from RoadMedic implementation as rising from $5.5M to $23.4M over the first three years with corresponding revenue gains for dealers. Best of all, the philosophical objectives of the service fit well with the safety and security objectives of existing telematics sytems. Of course, there are also insurance implications to the Roadside Telematics proposition. There is no doubt that insurance companies will always want the earliest possible notification of an accident. The good news for insurance companies is that they are usually the first ones to get the call from a conscious driver, but in the event of a more severe accident they may not be contacted right away. Some car companies, most notably Kia Motors, have embraced the Roadside model, though none have implemented it. Ford conducted a test of concept in Texas in 2004 and Volvo has committed to a test in Los Angeles. Roadside’s goal is to see the system put in place globally and allows that a typical OEM might even seek to reach out to existing vehicle owners to implement the system retroactively, while dealers may want to apply the system to certified pre-owned cars. Conclusion: As someone who has bought four cars in the past 7-8 years and who continues to receive service notifications for cars I no longer own or that no longer exist (due to accident) this analyst sees a powerful business proposition for dealers, OEMs and insurance companies. As a dealer, I want to know when my customer needs a loaner or replacement car or maybe even a repair. As a vehicle insurer, I want to know when that vehicle, that may not yet be paid for, is damaged or destroyed and/or when and if the driver is injured. In fact, if the vehicle is going to be repaired, I will want it repaired with genuine parts. As an OEM, I don't want to lose a customer who may have lost their vehicle entirely. Clearly, car makers, insurers and  dealers can all agree on the RoadMedic value proposition - the public authorities already have.

The cardiac kids at Sirius XM are at it again. After surviving years of multi-million dollar losses, a high-wire, company-saving merger with XM, and the downturn in auto sales, the company reported a strong first quarter in May. With auto sales recovering at the beginning of the year, Sirius was able to report revenue and subscriber increases and later revised its estimate of subscriber additions for the year to approximately 750,000. But now the ultimate test, the switch to XM, is on. The subscriber increase, which pushed the total close to 19M, reflected a net gain of 171,441 vs. a decline of 404,422 in the year-ago period. The numbers looked good, but they obscured the challenges arising from an increasingly competitive radio-listening landscape, the increasing inclination of car makers to make satellite radio an option rather than standard equipment and the impending termination of the Sirius half of the combined Sirius XM satellite network. All of these negatives were either swept from the table by the positive earnings report or were not mentioned at all on the earnings conference call. (In the interest of full disclosure allow me to acknowledge that I am a subscriber to both XM and Sirius services and enjoy the content, as do the members of my family. Each member of my family has his or her favorite stations and it is nice to know that those stations are available anywhere in the U.S.) Strategy Analytics consumer surveys in the U.S. show satellite radio lagging well behind traditional AM/FM as a must have in the car. While AM/FM is described as a must have by 88% of respondents, satellite radio is regarded as a must have by only 14%. Internet radio lags even further behind at 5% - but that is changing. Interestingly, U.K. survey respondents show a higher level of interest in digital radio (DAB or DMB), with 22% describing it as a must have in the car. The lack of enthusiasm for satellite radio reflected in the survey results is just one of several negative indicators. Another such indicator is the fact that the aftermarket for satellite radio products is almost non-existent. Just as car makers have been inclined to make satellite radio optional, makers of aftermarket head units have also tended to introduce systems that are “satellite ready” vs. offering one or the other system built in. And the market for portable devices enabled for satellite radio has been limited thus far. Sirius XM is line extending into the iPhone app marketplace, but here, again, the company will run up against music services and Internet radio. The music services leverage more liberal licensing models for storing and managing music and Internet radio will benefit from the increasing proliferation of programming guides such as Stitcher or RadioTime to access interesting and relevant local content including podcasts. Of course, these services also benefit greatly from having a two-way link. Millions of consumers are turning to music services and Internet radio. Car and handset makers are developing ways to integrate these music services (ie. Slacker, Pandora) and Internet radio (ie. IHeartRadio) into their platforms – while carriers are scrambling to introduce tiered data programs to shield themselves from the burgeoning traffic. While satellite radio is increasingly optional either from the factory or in the aftermarket, HD Radio is increasingly standard equipment on cars. But the real killer for Sirius is unfolding in recent meetings with OEMs. Sirius has told its clients, which include BMW, Mercedes, Chrysler, Ford, Kia, Land Rover, Jaguar and many others, that they must switch to XM by 2016. For the car makers that helped make Sirius XM what it is today, there are no special subsidies, no silver bullet hardware fix or retrofit. There is simply a notification that they must switch from Sirius to XM by 2016. The bottom line, of course, is that the two satellite systems – one based on a satellite in geosynchronous orbit and one on satellites in geostationary orbits and using similar frequencies – require different receivers and antennas. In spite of a legal requirement in the merger agreement that the companies find a solution for interoperability, nothing beyond a combination of the two incompatible receivers and antennas was ever introduced in the market. The quiet announcement of the switch to XM, though long anticipated, is surprising for a number of reasons: 1. The companies must have known this day would come when they originally merged, yet it was never acknowledged until recently that one of the satellite networks would have to be sacrificed. 2. Given the fact that subscriber growth has reached a plateau it is clear that Sirius XM can ill afford to lose half its subscribers. And winning new subscribers in the current competitive environment will be a challenge especially as auto sales – the source of the majority of new subscribers – continue to move sideways, failing to provide the engine satellite radio so desperately needs. 3. Car makers – including several premium marks - are incensed that Sirius is making this unilateral change with little or nothing in the way of guidelines or even a public information campaign strategy. Sirius has made no public statement yet and company representatives have failed to respond to repeated requests for comment. 4. There is also some irony in the fact that Sirius spent many years denegrating XM's solution but in the end has chosen to consolidate on the XM platform. Long term, the good news is that the company selected to preserve XM, the more robust of the two solutions. XM was first to market with data solutions for weather (XM Weather in August 2003), traffic (XM NavTraffic on 2005 Acura RL and XM NavWeather on the Acura TL. Sirius made up some ground with the launch of Travel Link by Ford, but XM’s platform, including its terrestrial repeater network, is better suited to providing a wider range of content and services to drivers. If Sirius can keep car makers on board with a vision of low-cost, nationwide content delivery – and the higher ARPU implied therein – it may emerge profitably and competitively vis-à-vis smartphone and digital radio-based solutions. But the company is changing gears just as these new solutions are gaining momentum and at a time when car makers have little patience for another high-wire act. Further Insight: CES 2010: The Arrival of Converged Automotive Multimedia Products - John Canali -  http://bit.ly/9gq4yo Automotive Bluetooth: Profile Strategy Key to Infotainment Success - Mark Fitzgerald - http://bit.ly/9qEXbU Internet Radio: Ready for Prime Time - Mark Fitzgerald - http://bit.ly/ZBXzd Internet Radio to Vie with Music Services for Automotive Dominance - Lanctot - blog - http://bit.ly/9xm6qR WorldDMB Car Manufacturers Workshop - Munich - July 7 - Arrange meeting with Strategy Analytics - http://bit.ly/aUcqgm

As an emerging low-cost platform for distributing content and services to passenger vehicles, HD Radio technology has been sneaking up on the automotive and consumer electronics industry for about six years. In that brief time, the company has created a minor sensation in spite of the fact that most of the added value elements of the technology have yet to be deployed and tier one suppliers are only now beginning to master the user interface for automotive implementations. Suffice it to say that iBiquity Digital has succeeded in spite of the limitations of early product executions. But the next wave of product promises more dramatic gains as OEMs bring their interfaces up to speed and hardware makers deliver on the enabling technology for conditional access and other value-added services. IBiquity Digital has overcome the classic chicken-and-egg quandary, simultaneously convincing device makers and broadcasters to take a leap of faith and get on board the HD Radio technology express. In the six years since beginning its campaign, iBiquity Digital has recruited thousands of radio stations and their broadcast company parents to add the HD Radio signals, convinced portable and home electronics hardware makers to bring devices to market, and drawn in more than a dozen car makers to add HD Radio technology to their line-fit options portfolios. Today, in the U.S., there are 1,967 stations broadcasting using HD Radio technology in 250 U.S. markets including 197 of the top 200, reaching 247M listeners. In addition, there are 1,128 multicasts, additional stations within the existing HD Radio bandwidth, with nearly equivalent reach. There are dozens of home and aftermarket automotive systems equipped with HD Radio technology – including an iPhone add-on and an integration on the latest Microsoft Zune. Significantly, many if not most of the aftermarket automotive systems include HD Radio technology as standard whereas competing satellite radio capabilities are typically optional. Within the automotive realm, HD Radio technology has rocketed from being available on two brands and seven models (none of them standard) in MY07 to 16 brands and 87 models (34 of them standard fit) in MY10. The outlook is for 19 brands to be offering HD Radio technology on 122 models in 2012 with 65 of those models offering the technology as standard. By now, most people in the electronics industry are painfully familiar with the extended product life cycles and correspondingly slow decision-making in the automotive industry. In this context, iBiquity’s success has extraordinary. The rapid rise, however, has spawned poorly executed user interfaces with inscrutable and non-intuitive designs. (Doubly unfortunate is the fact that some of the poorest HD Radio interfaces are offered in high-end luxury vehicles.) IBiquity provided limited user interface guidance at its inception, but has since taken more of a position in providing suggested device interfaces. Customers are still left to their own preferences, for the most part, though industry participants will be wise to heed any direction from iBiquity. In the end, if customers cannot fathom the interface the added value will be lost. As HD Radio technology moves into the next phase of its global campaign – and make no mistake that the effort is a global one – it is worth taking a look at the services that are Current services include: Program Service Data – Song, Artist, Album, Genre, Comment, Commercial HD2/HD3 Stations iTunes Tagging Album Art – Station logo, Album art, Advertising Premium Content – Data, Concerts and sports programs, Opt-in Adult content, etc. Conditional Access Additional services in development include: Program guide Music tagging Advertisement tagging As for the scope of iBiquity’s efforts and ambitions they indeed span the globe. Countries that have adopted HD Radio technology with nationwide implementation include Puerto Rico, Panama and the U.S. Countries that have adopted the technology with regional operation include Mexico and Brazil. Countries that are characterized by iBiquity as being in testing with advanced interest include Canada, Argentina, Chile, Romania, China, Vietnam, South Korea, Uruguay, Colombia, Poland and the Czech Republic. The company describes several European countries as having a strong interest in the technology. If iBiquity has had this much success with a limited offering delivered in hastily configured packages, one can only imagine the results that await the company as the second and third generation products arrive with added value services and enhanced interfaces. Among the most remarkable executions demonstrated recently at the Consumer Electronics Show was the HD Radio integration in the MyFordTouch, just a hint of what is to come.

While car makers around the world are developing traditional embedded telematics systems for deployment worldwide, a secondary market in embedded (ie. line fit) and aftermarket modules intended to meet local mandates for eCall, vehicle tracking and road charging are proliferating. Mandates in such diverse locations as The Netherlands and Brazil are feeding this frenzy and new suppliers with new solutions are emerging on the scene on a weekly basis.

 

The six most prominent applications driving demand and interest - among suppliers, car makers and service providers – are pay-as-you-drive insurance (PAYD), the European eCall mandate, the Brazilian stolen vehicle recovery mandate, eHorizon map-as-a-sensor offerings, road charging (The Netherlands, France, Germany) and buy-here-pay-here solutions. Each one of these opportunities represents millions of devices to be sold and installed although, interestingly, the service opportunities are more limited with only PAYD, SVR and buy-here-pay-here promising any service revenue. Road charging in The Netherlands alone represents an 8M unit build with 300K-500K units/annually going forward.

 

PAYD is the highest profile opportunity in the industry today with Octo-Telematics leading the way in Europe with more than 1M installed devices in use. Smaller players are multiplying throughout the continent, though, as insurers recognize the opportunity to take customers from competitors, reward their own “best” customers, and gather better data for determining risk. Progressive is the market leader in the U.S., but with competition fierce in the automotive insurance industry, PAYD will be embraced nationwide. Not coincidentally, Octo-Telematics has partnered with Directed Electronics to tackle the U.S. market.

 

After PAYD, the Brazilian mandate for stolen vehicle tracking and vehicle immobilization has attracted as much attention as PAYD with several companies claiming design-in wins. There were some hiccoughs on the way to achieving a nationwide mandate, but the latest indications are that 100% of vehicles produced in Brazil will be obliged to be fitted with tracking devices enabled for vehicle immobilization. The compromise that allows the mandate to move forward leaves the service provisioning to the customer’s discretion.

 

Road charging, an application already widely deployed in the fleet industry, is coming to passenger cars to reduce emissions, traffic, and accident rates. The volumes for road charging will be significant and suppliers are circling.

 

The eHorizon solutions, in module form, offered by Navteq/Magneti Marelli/ST Microelectronics and lately demonstrated by Intermap/Visteon offer to integrate map and road elevation data into advanced driver assistance applications. The volumes here will grow, but the rate will be slow as consumers gradually come to embrace emerging safety systems.

 

Buy-here-pay-here modules used by both new and used car resellers to track and immobilize customers that miss payments is the most well-established of all the module-related opportunities. Players in the industry have recently coalesced around the Payment Assurance Technology Association (http://www.patassociation.com/index.php) to raise the profile of this vital application as a legitimate segment worthy of attention and respect. No doubt demand has never been higher given current economic decisions.

 

Supplier approaches to module mania range from application specific solutions to all-purpose devices not only suitable to multiple uses but remotely configurable and integrated with Website access. ABS T&T, which has partnered with Continental, distributes a multipurpose module for tracking and telematics applications ranging from shipment tracking to stolen vehicle recovery and telematics.

 

NXP offers its ATOP module which it describes as the world’s first single component on board unit (OBU) capable of supporting ITS applications, stolen vehicle tracking, PAYD applications, last mile tracking (automotive black box) as well as enabling ADAS systems. The device can be configured with a wide range of connectivity including GSM, CAN, near field communication (NFC, USB, and GPS and also enables downloadable applications.

 

Whether purpose-built or all-purpose, module makers are proliferating spurred on by government mandates as well as new and existing commercial opportunities from both the consumer telematics and fleet market segments. This is precisely the right stimulus package for an automotive industry on the mend.

The marketing battle between traffic service providers will continue into 2010. The good news is that 2009 firmly established the value of traffic data. The turning point came with the introduction of multiple mobile phone navigation solutions, most of which arrived through the aegis of the application store model pioneered by Apple. But new, unusual and creative solutions will arrive in 2010 and change the existing balance of power.

 

Users of these new navigation systems and the developers quickly discovered that reliable traffic information was the real killer app that mobile users were seeking. In the process they discovered that to deliver reliable travel times they needed a wide variety of traffic data including real-time, historical, predictive and incident data. Unfortunately, one of the key sources of traffic data – radio and television stations with cameras, ‘copters and spotters to report incident information – have suffered in the current downturn. In fact, there are anecdotal indications that radio stations are dropping traffic reporting. A model for delivering nationwide incident data that was previously fueled by advertising and sponsorships is becoming frayed at the edges as TV and radio advertising suffer.

 

Traffic.com, ClearChannel and Westwood One/SmartRoute, among others, are all seeking new funding, new business models or new owners in a bid to preserve or enhance their market positions. In the meantime, Google has barged into the market with its own traffic data raising questions over the viability of incumbent players. Google’s entry into any market raises these questions, although the reliability or robustness of Google’s traffic solution has yet to be proven. Inrix, on the other hand, has not based its model on sponsorships or advertising and, as a result, has for the most part avoided the negative impact of the downturn in advertising activity. But with Google getting into the traffic data aggregation and algorithm business, no traffic data supplier is safe including Microsoft's ClearFlow.

 

Of more immediate concern than Google entering the traffic market is the changing role of mobile-phone based navigation. Google is a player here as well, but it has more company in the form of Networks in Motion and TeleNav and their carrier partners. (TelMap's efforts in Europe have been hindered by the fragmented nature of the market and the negative impact of roaming charges.) While companies such as Cellint, AirSage, and IntelliOne have been seeking to integrate cell-tower triangulation data for probe traffic inputs, expect the carriers to introduce GPS-based probe data in the new year – representing a key added-value advantage. GPS-based probe data derived from mobile phone handsets will not replace triangulated data, which will always represent the greatest volume of “anonymized” location data, but the GPS data is likely to be more timely and accurate, critical to traffic reporting and analysis. The GPS-based data will likely require opt in participation vs. the triangulated data which to date has been applied involuntarily.

 

Still, good probe data is almost worthless without incident data. Without incident data the system is unable to interpret slowed or stopped traffic – ie. is it weather, volume, construction, a fallen tree limb, an uphill grade? The battle for reliable traffic data will come down to good incident data. This means the industry will see vastly enhanced probe data in 2010, but the gap between reliable flow and reliable incident data will suddenly become much clearer.

 

Through all the enhancements to traffic reporting consumers have been expressing their interest in better and more timely information and, in particular, more real-time incident information. As an example, RDS-TMC is notorious for the 5-10-15-minute delays in incident reporting, sometimes worse. Drivers want to know what is happening in real time.

 

In 2010, drivers will begin to get real-time information. Whether that information comes from Twitter, TrafficTalk, Aha Mobile, Waze, TrafficLand or some other solution is not clear. What is clear is that drivers want to know BOTH what has happened in the past and what is happening now. But what they really want to know is what is happening right in front of them.

 

The solutions will come in 2010 from three key sources: mobile-phone-based crowd-sourced info, traffic cameras and, perhaps, vehicle-mounted cameras. The challenges to delivery include the creation of traffic reporting “crowds,” something TrafficTalk, Waze and Aha Mobile are working on; and camera input interpretation and delivery platforms. Developments in 2009 clearly indicated that drivers must spend less time looking away from the road to navigation interfaces. More information must be conveyed via voice.

 

Traffic information suppliers will still be looking at a combination of subscription-based and sponsored traffic information. Consumers have clearly indicated a willingness to pay for traffic data, both in Strategy Analytics surveys and in the combined 10 million subscribers to Networks in Motion, TeleNav and XM/Sirius traffic information.

 

The industry will see some outlandish innovations ranging from delivering traffic camera info to mobile phones to – in 2-3 years – aftermarket in-vehicle cameras to capture traffic incidents. Two things are clear. Better incident data is required and solutions are in the pipeline.

QNX Software Systems has more or less quietly taken control of the luxury car market for embedded infotainment operating system software and, increasingly, application-level software in the head unit as well. The month-long, nationwide tour coordinated with Alcatel-Lucent to show off the now-famous LTE-enabled Toyota Prius has sent a clear message that QNX has tomorrow's automotive infotainment solutions ready today. The LTE implementation shows QNX at the peak of its game. In fact, QNX and Microsoft virtually pushed VxWorks out of the automotive operating system market and the two are virtually unchallenged aside from M-itron, which is dominant among Asian OEMs. Could QNX be poised for further gains or is the company's position more vulnerable than it seems? The demonstration of the LTE car, most recently featured at the Rock Financial Showplace in Novi, Mich., reveals an in-dash system with two front-seat screens along with back-of-headrest screens for rearseat entertainment. As a concept demonstration, the vehicle of course violates existing limitations on frontseat, in-dash video, but the point is that virtually any kind of audio, video or game content is available via any screen each of which can be personalized to the passenger in that position. The basic options displayed in the demos are Games, Communications, Internet,  Entertainment, Vehicle and Navigation. Of course, these six choices could be whatever the developer prefers and users are able to customize the sub-directories as they would radio stations. For example, within Internet the options include: Chumby, Browser, Fanbase, Home Control, Internet Video, Kabillion, Weather, YouTube, QStore, Pandora and Local Search. A similar rich mix of options is available under vehicle where QNX has realized the vision of the virtual user manual with vehicle schematics tied to on-board sensors. And, of course, QNX has enabled several on-board application stores. There are several implications to the QNX design. First of all, the system is a cloud-ready solution. A vehicle equipped with the QNX software is location aware, capable of tapping into the Internet for its information needs or the information needs of the driver and/or connecting with the driver's phone to access contact or scheduling information. Secondly, the QNX system shows how comprehensive connectivity almost completely obviates the need for a call-center-type telematics service provider. The driver can access almost anything he or she needs via voice commands and the vehicle, with appropriate software enhancement, is capable of anticipating or responding to most requirements. Lastly, the LTE demonstration is a warning to auto makers that emerging network deployments may be closer than they appear in their rearview mirror. Verizon says that by 2013 its LTE network deployment will be equivalent to its 2009 3G deployment - ie. nearly ubiquitous. Those modules may be expensive, but they're coming fast and those prices will fall correspondingly. Enabling this level of functionality is QNX's so-called abstraction layer of software for Alarms, Audio, SOS, Phone, GPS, Net and CAN. This abstraction layer acts as an interface between the embedded systems and the application layer. The applications "subscribe" to the objects in the abstraction layer which receive their updates from the embedded software. The only bad news for QNX is that this LTE solution is ill-suited for the volume segment of the automotive market. While QNX has taken charge of the high end of the market, the high end of the market is characterized by low margins and low volumes. Microsoft, another contender for luxury segment business, has made a name for its self in the volume segment of the market where both margins and volumes are superior. The question facing QNX is whether it can leverage its high-end success with mass market solutions. Given the fact that it is already well positioned with relationships with key players such as Hyundai and Volkswagen prospects are positive. But with a swarm of small cars hitting the market it is likely that Microsoft is better positioned to benefit the most from emerging opportunities. In spite of the elegance of the LTE showcase, QNX is an industry shark that needs to find a way to swim like a minnows. If there is a segment(s) on the rise it is A/B.