Among the many untold stories in the telematics industry, the tale of Volvo OnCall and Orbcomm stands out, especially in the context of this week’s SISTER workshop on satellite communications and intelligent transport technologies, which took place in Brussels. What might, for Volvo, have become a visionary hybrid implementation of satellite and cellular technology for a telematics system for the U.S. market was undone by Orbcomm’s bankruptcy filing in 2000.   In retrospect, it is both understandable and deeply disappointing that no other automotive telematics planner chose to follow the Volvo path. Maybe decision makers saw the Volvo experience as a cautionary tale instead of as the inspiration that it actually represented.   Maybe if the European Union had taken a closer look at what Volvo was dreaming up they might have included satellite technology in their eCall plans. Alas, the EU did not include satellite technology in eCall which may be why the SISTER initiative was founded as the first association with the mandate to evaluate the possibility of integrating satellite technology to enhance the complete range of ITS technologies including eCall, road user charging, map updating, dangerous goods monitoring and enhanced Galileo services. SISTER concludes its research activities and will publish its recommendations next month.   Back in the mid-1990’s, Volvo was considering the inclusion of Orbcomm’s low-earth orbit satellites as a backup communication channel to cellular TDMA and Amps technologies. The company was willing to include satellite in spite of the obtrusiveness of the required antenna technology of the time.   Today, Volvo offers cellular-only telematics throughout Europe with short-term plans for a U.S. launch of a similar system. Orbcomm, meanwhile, has recovered and is a supplier of telematics technology to Volvo Trucks under the Dynafleet brand. Orbcomm is in fact a leader in the modest but growing hybrid – satellite-cellular - connectivity business.   The absence of satellite technology from existing automotive telematics solutions, especially for emergency applications, is extraordinary given the purpose of such systems. The EU regularly makes inflated claims of the life-saving ability of eCall systems to summon assistance from emergency responders. Chief critics of eCall are quick to point out that passing motorists frequently make the first reports of accidents rendering eCall messages redundant.   Where eCall could have an impact, though, is in the event of accidents occurring in rural areas, where cellular coverage is wanting. In fact, some say that the most severe accidents and injuries often occur in these circumstances. This is obviously where satellite technology could make a difference.   The good news is that the EU is finally looking at the integration of satellite technology at least as an idea, if not as part of the existing eCall specification. Even better news lies in the fact that this consideration is taking place after the demise of Worldspace and following the allocation of spectrum for DVB-SH satellite technology. The SISTER program is also taking place at the very onset of the European Galileo system which has direct application for all location-related ITS applications. In fact, satellite navigation is the most widespread of current satellite applications and is expected to lead the way in satellite integration into a wider range of services. The arrival of Galileo promises to deliver better than 10cm location accuracy potentially suitable for road pricing and lane keeping applications and possibly for map updating. SISTER workshop representatives foresee $43B in cumulative financial benefits - combined revenue and savings - from the integration of enhanced satellite navigation technology. Potential sources of these gains include: fuel consumption reduction, travel time reduction, air pollution reduction, CO2 emission reduction, cost savings due to congestion reduction and cost savings from decreased injuries. Current satellite technologies available in Europe, and elsewhere around the world, offer both superior location information delivery but also the ability to deliver audio and video content. Outside of Volvo, the only other company to foresee the arrival of this value proposition was Hughes Telematics.   Hughes proposed a hybrid satellite-cellular telematics system nearly five years ago that not-coincidentally included a DVB-SH component originally to be provided by Ico Global Communications. These plans were interrupted, at least in part, by Ico’s filing for bankruptcy. (Sound familiar?)   Nevertheless, the Hughes vision called for a consumer-targeted telematics system integrating emergency response, roadside assistance and concierge services along with entertainment content delivery. In fact, Ico was making its own plans to introduce aftermarket and portable devices for audio and video content. Ico has two DVB-SH competitors in the U.S., TerreStar and SkyTerra, both of whom will eventually be in position to offer the same telematics and infotainment solutions envisioned by Ico. Like Ico, TerreStar has a satellite deployed and in its final phase of testing. The large TerreStar satellite - which allows for smaller footprint device antennas - is capable of spot-beam coverage of the U.S. for two-way voice and data. The TerreStar satellite is suitable to eCall and commercial applications or for rural areas that lose terrestrial cellular networks during natural disasters. Sirius XM's satellite network has also been put to use for telematics applications including traffic and weather. Sirius XM also recently acquired the assets of Worldspace, meaning the European satellite radio provider could some day participate in telematics opportunities. Worldspace competitor Ondas has deals in place with several European OEMs, but no satellites. It’s been a long road, but the reality has finally caught up with the vision. The so-called S-band DVB-SH spectrum allocation for Europe was awarded to Eutelsat and a joint venture partner SES Astra. (Ico was one of the other bidders and is still mounting a legal challenge to the award.)   DVB-SH offers the ability for bi-directional communications for low-bandwidth ITS applications – available by the end of 2010 – along with some limited two-way communications to be launched in 2011. But DVB-SH expects to realize the prospect of entertainment content delivery for embedded, aftermarket and portable devices. This capability is important given that several SISTER participants expect that telematics services will have to be bundled with entertainment content to be attractive to consumers.   The recommendation of at least one presenter at the SISTER workshop was that all vehicles operated by public authorities should be connected via satellite, that all commercial fleet vehicles should be similarly connected and that, ultimately, all consumer vehicles should be linked via satellite. Some combination of public and private funding will surely be necessary, but the anticipated benefits to road safety and traffic management have already been proven by SISTER’s experiments.

TomTom CEO Harold Goddijn must be reading this blog or we are reading his mind. In a post on March 6th (http://bit.ly/aVONfo), we suggested TomTom needed to open its platform to developers and adopt the app store model on a wider scale. TomTom announced its intention to take these very steps at its customer event this week - embracing the app store approach and offering apps to customers by the end of the year, according to a report on pocket-lint.com (http://bit.ly/b5t6jh). It is worth noting that TomTom was the first and only PND maker to create a connected community of users able to share content and map updates. TomTom's Home application also allowed users to purchase applications online. But the platform was closed to third parties, even though TomTom users could record and share their own navigation voices and favorite routes. The new initiative represents a radical shift and a bold gamble on an entirely new business model and hardware and software platform that brings TomTom into more direct alignment with the mobile industry. It also represents a further departure from chief rival Garmin which will still have a closed platform. The report quotes Goddijn: "What is happening here is a break from the past. We have a great infrastructure, but in 2009 we decided it wasn't good enough moving forward. We decided to break the code and move on to new architecture both on the device and the backend." According to the report, the strategy calls for deployment of a webkit-based operating system and the introduction of new technologies in all new TomTom devices in the coming month to "create a platform for ... both the consumer and automotive market." The plans represent a major overhaul of how TomTom offers its services and delivers its navigation software and a direct response to pressure from the mobile phone market where application stores have become the de facto standard for application and content distribution. The new TomTom platform, based on the open source webkit browser engine is to arrive before the end of 2010, though TomTom did not specify a date. The choice of Webkit is significant given TomTom's plans to broaden its footprint in the automotive market where an open platform will facilitate integration with automotive systems. The Pocket Lint report further notes that a separate TomTom presentation described how the company is already evangelising how apps like Wikipedia, tourist guides like Time Out and others, such as piste maps, might help people get a better idea of where they are going. And the company said it was looking at the possibility of adding augmented reality to the mix possibly as a third party offering via the anticipated app store. On the hardware side, the company is preparing the launch of the first device built around the new architecture: the TomTom Go Live 1000. In a drive to keep costs down, Pocket Lint reports that TomTom has opted for the ARM 11 500Mhz processor and a separate Broadcom GPS chip rather than a Qualcomm Snapdragon processor that promises to do it all. Pocket Lint says TomTom hopes to leverage relationships with Volkswagen, BMW, Fiat, Ford, Renault, Toyota and Daimler. TomTom says it will be able to allow car makers to customise the UI, use webkit to provide a "great" programming environment that makes it easier to talk to the other systems of the car (like the heating or air conditioning), as well as deliver over the air (OTA) updates thanks to built-in connectivity (ie a SIM card), something that will no doubt appeal to car makers, normally slow to implement new technologies in the latest models.

The pressure to reduce vehicle carbon emissions is exacting an influence on the automotive industry beyond the handful of ultra-compact and EV/HEV announcements around the world. The calendar year 2009 installation rate for gas hungry V-6 and V-8 engines, for example, fell to 57.1% from 63.9% in 2008 in the U.S., according to Ward’s Automotive, continuing a five-year decline from a peak of 76.2% in 2004.

 

But the impacts are more wide ranging, as detailed by the president of the Association of International Automobile Manufacturers at a luncheon of the Washington Automotive Press Association this week. AIAM quotes U.S. government estimates that automobiles are responsible for 20% of carbon emissions.

 

Most governments around the world seek to discourage driving and thereby reduce carbon emissions with taxes on gasoline or via road charging – a solution being pursued most recently in The Netherlands. The U.S. is unique in the world in mandating Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency standards – known as CAFÉ.

 

With the ultimate goal in mind of reducing vehicle emissions to near zero carbon, the CAFÉ standards were recently updated (May 9, 2009) by the Obama administration in the U.S. to a 2016 target of 35.5 miles per gallon. The mandate became law April 1 and partially harmonized ruled from the Department of Transportation, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the Environmental Protection Administration.

 

One of the more unusual elements of CAFÉ is the different goals for each OEM as well as its basis in vehicle footprint – originally defined and codified in 2007. The vehicle footprint is defined as the vehicle’s wheelbase multiplied by its track width – or the area enclosed by the points at which the wheels meet the ground. The new guidelines will show Porsche needing to improve its overall efficiency by 9.9 miles per gallon by 2016 while the overall average improvement per OEM will be 7.4 miles per gallon, based on existing forecasts of production and sales.

 

Using this footprint attribute, the government has been able to define targets by vehicle type as a way to get around the need for OEMs to offset sales of larger cars with sales of smaller cars. Each vehicle footprint has its own efficiency targets under the current guidelines and all face their own requirements to improve between 2012 and 2016.

 

Complete harmonization of all government green house gas (GHG) reduction policies has not yet been achieved. CAFÉ is defined by the Energy Policy and Conservation Act while CO2 emissions are also governed by the Clear Air Act. The EPCA concerns itself with vehicles as they are produced, for example, while the CAA concerns itself with the emissions of vehicles during their entire operating life.

 

The impact of these efforts are, in fact, pushing car makers to improve efficiency and technologies that respond to that need will benefit from these initiatives. Everything from stop/start to clean diesels and EVs are expected to see wider deployment and consumer acceptance. Strategy Analytics research shows consumers in Europe and the U.S. are more interested in electric vehicles than they are in shifting to smaller vehicles.

 

With that goal in mind, AIAM described the range of fuel efficiency initiatives reflected in the government guidelines as including:

 

Types of Engine Technology:

-         Low friction lubricants

-         Reduction of engine friction losses

-         Cylinder deactivation

-         Variable valve timing

-         Discreete variable valve lift

-         Stoichiometric gasoline direct-injection technology

-         Combustion restart

-         Turbocharging and downsizing

-         Exhaust-gas recirculation boost

-         Clean diesel engines

Types of Transmission Techology:

-         Improved automatic transmission controls

-         Six-, seven-, eight-speed automatic transmissions

-         Dual clutch or automated shift manual transmission

-         Continuously variable transmission

-         Manual 6-speed transmission

Vehicle Technologies Considered:

-         Low rolling resistance tires

-         Low drag brakes

-         Front or secondary axle disconnect for four wheel drive systems

-         Aerodynamic drag reduction

-         Mass reduction and material substitution

Electrification/Accessory and Hybrid Technologies:

-         Electric power steering

-         Improved accessories

-         Air conditioner systems

-         12-Vole micro-hybrid (MHEV)

-         Higher Voltage stop-start/belt integrated starter generator (BISG)

-         Integrated motor assist (IMA)/Crank integrated starter generator (CISG)

-         2-Mode hybrid (2MHEV)

-         Power-split hybrid (PSHEV)

-         Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV)

-         Electric vehicles

 

Longer-Term Technology Solutions Include:

 

Plug-In Hybrids:

-         Battery R&D is still critical

-         Cost and durability are factors

-         Plug-in HEVs need about 5-8 times the battery capacity of a current HEV

-         Current goal is up to a 40 mile all-electric range

Battery EVs:

-         Remain an attractive target

-         Need battery capacity of 12-15 times a current HEV to provide adequate range

-         Same battery issues (cost, durability) plus operation in extreme weather (hot and cold temperatures)

-         Nissan has announced having BEVs in California market in 2010. White House regarding removing barriers

Fuel Cells:

-         Use hydrogen to generate electricity to run the vehicle, so they are a type of EV

-         Internal combustion engines can also be designed to use hydrogen

-         There are major hydrogen infrastructure issues – where do we get it; hot to distribute it?

Alternate Fuels:

-         Compressed natural gas

-         Ethanol – CAFÉ credit

 

Further Strategy Analytics insights:

 

http://bit.ly/cP39II - Hybrid Technologies Legislation/Support - Kevin Mak

http://bit.ly/bplBqV - EV/HEV Technologies Supply & Fitment Database - Kevin Mak

http://bit.ly/bv3Q0B - Hybrid and Electric Vehicles: OEM Strategies Reviewed - Kevin Mak

Reflecting Airbiquity’s rising star in the automotive telematics market, the company and partner Hitachi Automotive Systems, Ltd. have announced a partnership to provide telematics services for electric vehicles (EVs) globally. The announcement clearly positions Airbiquity – given its existing relationships with Toyota, Ford and OnStar – as the dominant telematics service provider of the future. The announcement emphasizes the global nature of the network and relationship between Hitachi Automotive and Airbiquity. The magnitude of this relationship is substantial, therefore, encompassing as it likely does, not only potentially the launch of the Leaf EV in North America but also perhaps lining up Airbiquity as a candidate to serve as the technology and infrastructure behind Renault-Nissan’s wider EV agenda including Europe, South America and Asia-Pacific. (Airbiquity had no comment on any potential relationship with Nissan or any other OEMs.) While Airbiquity is known for its so-called data over voice solution, the Leaf relationship is related to Airbiquity's Viaaq technology. Viaaq is serving as the back-end infrastructure for some Smart-grid implementations, paving the way for a next-generation role for Airbiquity in the telematics eco-system. The Airbiquity platform is well-suited to the task of supporting the needs of an electric vehicle to communicate vehicle location and battery charge. This relatively low bandwidth, data over voice, solution provides more than enough capacity both for battery-related information communication as well as safety and security and even eCall support. But the tie up with Hitachi is targeted at a broader IT infrastructure play. The only competing solution provider with an equivalent global footprint in telematics is WirelessCar, which already boasts relationships with Volvo Trucks, Volvo and BMW. In many ways, the WirelessCar solution represents a next generation answer to telematics service provision, emphasizing Internet protocol communications and voice-over-data technology. Where the global ambitions of Hitachi and Airbiquity may fall short is in extending the vehicle pipeline they currently offer to smart-grid applications and a deeper relationship with Nissan. The current point of leverge with Nissan derives from Hitachi Automotive's IT work in Japan in support of Nissan's telematics offerings in that country. The prospect of moving beyond "pipes to cars" and into the back-end systems represents a major leap for Airbiquity and puts the company in contention with IBM and other back-end integrators including Microsoft (Hohm) and Google. Unfortunately for Airbiquity, Ford has already announced its partnership with Microsoft for Smart-grid integration. OnStar has announced its intention to provide similar Smart-grid capabilities, but has not announced an IT partner. Hitachi and Airbiquity say their platform forms a central hub in the smart-grid network. They say the partnership paves the way for creating gateway infrastructures that can be linked with smart-grid systems. This will increase the footprint of both companies in the field of global connected vehicle services, and help automotive manufacturers worldwide quickly implement EV solutions, creating efficiencies and optimizing the costs of their service operations. Airbiquity has already made great progress in bringing the platform to a wider audience. The relationship with Hitachi also has implications for Ford Motor Company, for whom Hitachi/Clarion is a major manufacturing partner. Ford has implemented the Airbiquity platform as have OnStar and Toyota. All four OEMs have global ambitions for electric vehicles and telematics. Ford, for example, is expected to bring Sync to Europe soon. While several of these relationships are relatively new, it is fair to say that Airbiquity is poised to become the telematics service industry leader in the coming years. It is worth noting, however, how fleeting such leadership can be. It has been just three years since Continental acquired Motorola’s telematics business which at the time included contract manufacturing of the Ford Sync and OnStar modules. Within two years the OnStar business had shifted to LG Electronics and the Sync manufacturing relationship had shifted to Flextronics. But given its relationships with four of the largest car makers in the world, Airbiquity may have finally found  recipe for a more enduring position at the top of the industry. Further Insight: http://bit.ly/aIm4vK - Global Automotive OE Telematics Market 2008-2016 - Joanne Blight