When IBM had the personal computer industry in a headlock, the company was able to freeze customers’ plans to purchase competing PCs by releasing fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) in the marketplace. It achieved this goal by announcing its own plans for new products 6-12 months in advance. Sirius XM used its earnings call earlier this month for the same purpose, announcing plans for Satellite Radio 2.0 for Q4 2011. The difference, of course, is that Sirius XM does not control the market for broadcast radio content. In fact, the company is facing competitive pressures from both terrestrial and Internet-based sources. Further diminishing the Satellite Radio 2.0 gambit, is the declining portion of Sirius XM’s revenue and unit volume coming from retail, aftermarket devices. (According to estimates from the Consumer Electronics Association, satellite radio sales to dealers fell to $64M in 2009, with declines forecasted through 2013.) Sirius XM executives stated in the Q2 earnings call plans for the launch of the XM 5 satellite in October and the launch of Sirius 6 in Q4 2011. Also due to arrive in Q4 2011 is the newly touted Satellite Radio 2.0. Sirius XM execs said that SR 2.0 will offer consumers greater capacity and more functionality – both enhancements are intended to stimulate average revenue per user (ARPU). These same execs noted that no additional satellite launches will occur for several years, setting the stage for improved cashflow and profitability. In addition to the satellite and service launches late next year, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) limitations on Sirius XM subscriptions will end in August 2011. All of these indicators are positive for Sirius XM except for the fact that competition has intensified. With the FCC limitations removed, Sirius XM will have a much broader scope of subscription options given the 150+ range of stations to choose from. SR 2.0 promises even more ARPU upside with added channel content and, as Sirius XM execs clearly indicated in their earnings call, a wider use of data for telematics and other applications. It is interesting to hear Sirius XM getting excited about telematics as a potential ARPU contributor, and it is an indication that the company is moving in the right direction and recognizes the shortcomings of the existing service. It is also, no doubt, a response to competitive pressures from HD Radio and Internet radio. The question is whether or not this awakening at Sirius XM is coming too late to matter. HD Radio technology is proliferating as more OEMs adopt the technology and more radio stations join the burgeoning ranks of participating broadcasters. HD Radio is appealing since it operates over the same FM frequencies, though requiring some additional hardware, and it is free. At the same time, more and more OEMs are lining up music service solutions such as Pandora along with Internet radio - via smartphone connectivity in the short-term and embedded solutions in the long run. The success of Pandora is a testament to that company’s ability to deliver a solution that is able to integrate seamlessly with automotive systems. Competitor Slacker’s content-caching music service is not less compelling, but OEMs have not found integration to be nearly as simple. Still, the tide that is lifting Pandora's boat will likely benefit other music services and Internet radio providers, such as ClearChannel's IHeartRadio. The timing and manner of Sirius XM's announcement of Satellite Radio 2.0 suggests that Sirius XM is attempting to prevent OEM defections to HD Radio, music service solutions or Internet radio. OEMs are in the process of making decisions today that will impact vehicle platforms four and five years hence. Sirius XM executives refused to explain exactly what SR 2.0 will be. But given the short launch window, it will no doubt arrive in the retail aftermarket first. The company is currently briefing OEMs regarding its confidential plans. Sirius XM has already lost momentum in the automotive market. Car makers (and aftermarket system makers) have shifted toward offering satellite radio as an option rather than as a standard feature. And both Sirius XM and its OEM customers are using subscription conversion data to determine which cars should and should not be offered with the service. This means that even though Sirius XM has been able to show subscriber gains in its past two quarters, rapid growth is a thing of the past and pales by comparison to the subscriber numbers of a Pandora or Slacker. On the earnings call Sirius XM execs said that availability of satellite radio technology in cars was at approximately 60% of car models with a paid subscription conversion rate of 47%. The company currently claims more than 19.5M subscribers and anticipates somewhat more than 20M by the end of the year. OEMs say that if it weren’t for their multi-year agreements with Sirius XM they might have walked away from the relationship a long time ago. (Several OEMs are also shareholders in Sirius XM.) This sour sentiment does not bode well for Sirius XM moving away from the subsidy model it maintains in the automotive market. This subsidy model also means that the cost of acquiring new subscribers – given the decline of retail satellite radio sales – will continue to rise as the balance between retail and OEM sales continues to shift toward subsidized OEM subs. Further clouding the otherwise rosy long-term outlook for Sirius XM is the mandated switchover to XM. OEMs currently offering Sirius satellite radio service have been told they will have to switch to XM by 2016. The honeymoon for Sirius XM is clearly over. The question now is whether SR 2.0 can save the store. Satellite Radio 2.0 There are three areas where SR 2.0 could help Sirius XM hold onto its existing subscribers while attracting new subscribers. Here are Strategy Analytics’ thoughts on what SR 2.0 will look like: Audio – Sirius XM faces its biggest audio challenge from Internet radio and music services generally and Pandora in particular. All of these services are paid and Internet radio has suffered a blow from the onset of tiered data plans limiting the use of such services. Nevertheless, OEMs have embraced Internet radio because of the powerful consumer demand and awareness – several times the user base of satellite radio and widely and easily accessed on multiple platforms without any additional hardware. The only solution Sirius XM can offer is more or better-targeted audio channels. Ironically, the more channels Sirius XM adds the more difficult it is to use. Expect Sirius XM to update its content search and save capabilities to better replicate an Internet radio experience. Sirius XM can also be expected to enhance its iPhone and iPod integration with song-tagging not unlike HD Radio’s capabilities. Expect Sirius XM to add additional capabilities, along the lines of what iBiquity Digital has been showing in HD Radio demos for the past 2-3 years. Enhancements are likely to include more artist, track, album information; album art; song duration; maybe even reviews or other metadata from suppliers such as Gracenote or Rovi. Traffic – For some reason Sirius’ traffic data services are not comparable to offerings from direct competitors such as ClearChannel’s RDS-TMC. Side-by-side comparisons conducted by this analyst of both XM NavTraffic and the Sirius traffic service have found them to be lacking in comparison to both PND and embedded solutions. The only good news for Sirius is that RDS-TMC is only offered standard by half a dozen car makers. Still, with the proliferation of HD Radio technology, Sirius will soon be up against TPEG traffic data content, putting it further behind the eight ball. Sirius must bring its traffic data services up to a competitive grade. Strangely, the company does not even use the same flow and incident sourcing between its data (Traffic.com) and broadcast traffic services (Westwood One). Expect Sirius XM to do something about the shortcomings in its traffic reporting. OEMs are definitely making comparisons between HD Radio and satellite radio traffic services and making critical long-term decisions. Expect major traffic data improvements in SR 2.0 including the implementation of a standard traffic database system – such as Gewi’s TIC 3 – and/or TPEG traffic information services. Only time will tell if the changes will be enough or will occur soon enough to preserve strong OEM relationships. Even more ominous for Sirius XM is the fact that more and more OEMs are building the cost of traffic into the cost of their vehicles. The $3.99/month traffic subscription for Sirius XM traffic data will not survive this process of commoditization - especially if the data quality is not competitive. Data – Sirius XM’s Travel Link service, offered by Ford, is an impressive voice-driven offering of content such as gas pricing, ski conditions, news, weather, and sports. Expect Sirius XM to bring this offering up to speed with a greater variety of content delivered with improved graphics. The competition here comes mainly in the form of smartphone solutions, so the challenge to compete is steep. Can Sirius XM breathe life into its retail aftermarket position with SR 2.0? Can the company preserve its standing with OEMs, which are more concerned with reducing costs and complexity? For now, Sirius XM is on a path to continue to build its subscriber base, enhance its service and reduce its operating expenses. But the future of the company hinges on whether car makers will continue to tune in beyond 2016. Further insight: http://tinyurl.com/2bz9zq6 - Google, Nokia and New Entrant Positioning in Automotive Infotainment - Lanctot – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/dniNxa - Navigation Heuristic Evaluation: Telmap5 – Schreiner – Automotive Consumer Insights http://bit.ly/95NCoW - Automotive DMB Digital Radio: Marketing Strategies an Increasing Priority – Blight – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/dtRE5C - Automotive Telematics Services: Shifts in Pricing and Monetization Expected – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/bwdwcW - Connected Vehicle and Vehicle Device Connectivity System Database by Feature, Region, and Price 2010 – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/d0aLhq - Connected Vehicle Telematics: Car Maker Profiles – Canali – Aumotive Multimedia and Communications Service

The gold standard for telematics success is daily relevance. One of the greatest challenges for companies introducing telematics systems and solutions is to bring daily relevance to their offerings. Human beings are creatures of habit, which means that driving directions are normally not required daily, gas pricing and parking choices are predetermined, and weather and news are available for free over the radio. Movie times, skiing conditions and restaurant reviews are nice to haves. But they are available from other sources – most notably mobile phones – and are an occasional not a daily information requirement. And we all hope we never have to use either automatic crash notification or roadside assistance. Traffic data, on the other hand, is something that is relevant five days a week to a substantial portion of the working public. Companies that get traffic data right have a huge competitive advantage not only in providing traffic data, but also for providing a wide range of data feeds and services. In fact, the very infrastructure required for delivering traffic data – storage and processing facilities and servers and, in some cases, broadcasting capability - is a suitable platform for providing other telematics services. For this reason, traffic data providers Inrix, ITIS Holdings, TomTom and Navteq also serve as content and service aggregators. (It is also one of the reasons for TeleCommunications Systems’ acquisition of Networks in Motion and why TeleNav has a content and services platform.) The opportunity to provide additional telematics services is the brass ring for which traffic data providers are reaching. It is for this reason these companies are seeking to bundle traffic data offerings with traffic-influenced routing, developing mobile apps for smartphones and connected navigation systems, and other initiatives focused on moving up the value chain – ultimately leading to sponsored content, reviews and location-aware advertising and promotion. The daily relevance of traffic data is a powerful elixir for delivering additional location-aware added-value services, including advertising. This is why Google, TeleNav, TCS, Nokia Navteq, RIM and TomTom are moving quickly to introduce or enhance their probe-based (handset GPS) traffic flow solutions to develop their telematics business. The winner(s) to emerge from this marketing scrum will be the company or companies with the highest quality traffic data. Traffic data quality, in turn, is determined by a handful of critical factors including data sources, integration, and delivery. (The quality and nature of the user interface is important as well, but is the responsibility of the device or service designer/manufacturer.) The determining factors within each of these areas are essential to understand: Sources: There are a handful of key sources of traffic data and they include commercial fleet (ie. taxi cabs, trucks, etc. and other types of probes such as GPS handsets, PNDs, etc.), regional departments of transport, embedded and roadside sensors, and incident or journalistic data. A handful of companies – principally TomTom, ITIS Holdings and AirSage - are translating cell tower signaling data for flow data analysis. This technology is currently deployed by both TomTom and ITIS in parts of Europe. ITIS licenses its technology to partners in Australia, Ireland, Russia, South Africa and Singapore. A North American solution has yet to be delivered. TomTom delivers its cellular flow data in HD Traffic for its connected devices in Europe, which still stands as one of the best, if not THE best, live traffic solution in the world. (It is worth noting that HD Traffic received low scores in BMW's QKZ evaluation.) Traffic flow data from these sources is valuable for many use cases and applications including showing traffic on a map and traffic-influenced routing. Journalistic data complements the flow data by providing context about the cause, location and scope of the traffic problem. This is particularly useful to receive as a traffic incident alert before leaving on a journey or to provide context when actually stuck in a traffic jam, as the driver generally can’t safely read a description about an incident while driving.Incident data come from public sources such as emergency responders, department of transportation traffic cameras, or public or private spotters that may be on the ground or observing traffic conditions from some form of aircraft. Much of incident data is public information – some of it freely available to the public - and most is freely available to commercial traffic information providers. There are some private sources, however, including radio and TV stations with their own spotters, cameras or sensors and these include companies such as ITIS Holdings, SmartRoute, Traffic.com and ClearChannel. ClearChannel and ITIS Holdings have emerged as the dominant suppliers of incident data in the U.S. and U.K., respectively. The two companies have the widest market coverage and the broadest roster of clients. Of course, operating a traffic incident collection and reporter network on a national basis (much less internationally) can be extremely expensive and unprofitable, and companies such as Westwood One and Traffic.com operate under the pressure of that expense. Not surprisingly, ClearChannel and ITIS are also distinguished in applying the so-called QKZ traffic quality assessment standards to their solutions. QKZ, which is the name of the index used to evaluate traffic data, is the standard applied by BMW in evaluating different traffic solutions. BMW recently selected MILE Traffic and Travel (ITIS, Infoblu, Mediamobil consortium) to provide a pan-European traffic solution. BMW is already partnered with ClearChannel in the U.S. for their RDS-TMC solution. It is important to note those elements of the traffic data picture that are global in nature vs. local and to make a distinction between flow data and incident data. There are thousands of local sources of incident data and there are local aggregators of that data, but incident data is fundamentally a regional phenomenon. Flow data, in contrast, is ruled by systems that can be applied globally. There are five providers of flow data currently operating across borders and these are ITIS, Inrix, Nokia Navteq, TomTom and TrafficCast. ITIS is unique in using a licensing model. TomTom has yet to find a customer in the automotive or mobile device market for its flow data. TrafficCast has a handful of customers. And Inrix and Navteq currently compete for contracts in North America and Europe. Car makers are most interested in identifying global solutions, while navigation device makers and mobile application developers are content with regional solutions.  Companies such as Waze, Aha Mobile and TrafficTalk are attempting to open up a new channel of user-reported incident data. But the industry is still seeking to determine how to evaluate the quality of these ad hoc sources and integrate their inputs. Integration: The process of data integration produces a picture of traffic flow including not only real-time traffic flow or speeds but also a predictive model based on both historical and real-time data sources. This information is critical for determining accurate travel and arrival times as well as routing or re-routing.The five leading flow data companies distinguish themselves by their processes for integrating and manipulating traffic data, vetting sources and interpreting the different inputs. A virtual duopoly exists between Inrix and Navteq in the U.S. The European market is rapidly evolving from regional traffic providers to pan-European aggregators. TomTom has developed its proprietary HD traffic in a handful of countries, but is only deployed with its own smartphone and connected PND solutions. Navteq has a solution in place with Garmin, but has limited European coverage. Inrix and MILE Traffic and Travel appear to be emerging as powerful challengers in Europe. Delivery: The last link in the chain is delivery and this is the area experiencing the greatest degree of technological change. The most widespread platform for communicating traffic information is radio, but there are multiple radio-based platforms for traffic information delivery. Analog radio is the most dominant and familiar source of traffic data reports and the most widely available traffic data broadcast network in this medium is RDS-TMC. RDS-TMC is widely criticized for the limited amount of information it is capable of broadcasting in a metropolitan area and perceived delays (latency) in delivering the latest information to the embedded or portable navigation system in the car. Emerging digital radio technology enables a richer stream of traffic-related content and maintains the critical local elements. Digital radio is also a superior platform for delivering other forms of content. RDS-TMC is being replaced by TPEG technology. TPEG allows for a wider range of content, a larger volume of information and can be distributed over HD, DAB or cellular networks as it is XML-based. TPEG also encompasses arterial road coverage. Handset-based solutions are promising, though hampered by the smaller screens and challenging in-vehicle user experience associated with mobile phones. While technologies such as Nokia’s Terminal Mode offer the prospect of delivering handset traffic images to in-vehicle displays these solutions will take a few years to reach the market. Many OEMs, however, are in product development now with solutions that use handsets (or are fully integrating embedded GSM/GPRS modules in the vehicle) for sending traffic data and other telematics information to/from the vehicle. Product development is moving briskly in the handset/smartphone space and innovative solutions such as TrafficTalk and Visteon's TrafficCamJam are in the offing. But the companies creating these applications will likely require expensive voice interfaces. Public authorities will likely not accept handset-based applications in cars that require a touch screen interface while the vehicle is in motion. Part of the power of these smartphone-based applications, though, lies in the fact that they are location-aware and sharing location data even as they are reporting traffic conditions. As a result, these devices remain a wildcard in the evolution of traffic data. Sirius XM’s traffic data service in North America, based as it is on a single national stream of broadcast data to a vehicle’s navigation system, is fatally flawed. Based on this correspondent’s own experience with the Sirius feed in Mercedes and the ClearChannel feed in BMW, the lag introduced by the sequential transmission of multiple-market’s worth of traffic information down a single pipeline is the source of Sirius’ downfall. It is no coincidence that BMW offers Sirius' audio content but eschews its traffic offering. And some industry observers believe OEMs are dropping Sirius/XM traffic data services from their roadmaps for MY13 and beyond in favor of connected services over GPRS/GSM. In Sirius XM’s most recent earnings call two weeks ago the company touted its planned introduction in Q4 2011 of Satellite Radio 2.0. Presumably the company will have a fix for the timely delivery of traffic data. Conclusion: The biggest pipeline to the car of all is the embedded telecommunications module. With new embedded solutions set to launch from multiple car makers in multiple geographies over the next 2-3 years, drivers can expect to see vast improvements in traffic information quality. This is at least one reason for optimism regarding the future uptake of telematics services overall. With the emergence of both digital radio technologies worldwide and the proliferation of embedded telematics systems, the expectation is that the companies that will dominate traffic will be those with the highest quality data. What distinguishes these companies today are their processes for validating data quality. If the data is sound the daily relevance will follow as will subscribers. Further insight: http://tinyurl.com/2bz9zq6 - Google, Nokia and New Entrant Positioning in Automotive Infotainment - Lanctot – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Servicehttp://bit.ly/dniNxa - Navigation Heuristic Evaluation: Telmap5 – Schreiner – Automotive Consumer Insightshttp://bit.ly/95NCoW - Automotive DMB Digital Radio: Marketing Strategies an Increasing Priority – Blight – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Servicehttp://bit.ly/dtRE5C - Automotive Telematics Services: Shifts in Pricing and Monetization Expected – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Servicehttp://bit.ly/bwdwcW - Connected Vehicle and Vehicle Device Connectivity System Database by Feature, Region, and Price 2010 – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Servicehttp://bit.ly/d0aLhq - Connected Vehicle Telematics: Car Maker Profiles – Canali – Aumotive Multimedia and Communications Service

The cardiac kids at Sirius XM are at it again. After surviving years of multi-million dollar losses, a high-wire, company-saving merger with XM, and the downturn in auto sales, the company reported a strong first quarter in May. With auto sales recovering at the beginning of the year, Sirius was able to report revenue and subscriber increases and later revised its estimate of subscriber additions for the year to approximately 750,000. But now the ultimate test, the switch to XM, is on. The subscriber increase, which pushed the total close to 19M, reflected a net gain of 171,441 vs. a decline of 404,422 in the year-ago period. The numbers looked good, but they obscured the challenges arising from an increasingly competitive radio-listening landscape, the increasing inclination of car makers to make satellite radio an option rather than standard equipment and the impending termination of the Sirius half of the combined Sirius XM satellite network. All of these negatives were either swept from the table by the positive earnings report or were not mentioned at all on the earnings conference call. (In the interest of full disclosure allow me to acknowledge that I am a subscriber to both XM and Sirius services and enjoy the content, as do the members of my family. Each member of my family has his or her favorite stations and it is nice to know that those stations are available anywhere in the U.S.) Strategy Analytics consumer surveys in the U.S. show satellite radio lagging well behind traditional AM/FM as a must have in the car. While AM/FM is described as a must have by 88% of respondents, satellite radio is regarded as a must have by only 14%. Internet radio lags even further behind at 5% - but that is changing. Interestingly, U.K. survey respondents show a higher level of interest in digital radio (DAB or DMB), with 22% describing it as a must have in the car. The lack of enthusiasm for satellite radio reflected in the survey results is just one of several negative indicators. Another such indicator is the fact that the aftermarket for satellite radio products is almost non-existent. Just as car makers have been inclined to make satellite radio optional, makers of aftermarket head units have also tended to introduce systems that are “satellite ready” vs. offering one or the other system built in. And the market for portable devices enabled for satellite radio has been limited thus far. Sirius XM is line extending into the iPhone app marketplace, but here, again, the company will run up against music services and Internet radio. The music services leverage more liberal licensing models for storing and managing music and Internet radio will benefit from the increasing proliferation of programming guides such as Stitcher or RadioTime to access interesting and relevant local content including podcasts. Of course, these services also benefit greatly from having a two-way link. Millions of consumers are turning to music services and Internet radio. Car and handset makers are developing ways to integrate these music services (ie. Slacker, Pandora) and Internet radio (ie. IHeartRadio) into their platforms – while carriers are scrambling to introduce tiered data programs to shield themselves from the burgeoning traffic. While satellite radio is increasingly optional either from the factory or in the aftermarket, HD Radio is increasingly standard equipment on cars. But the real killer for Sirius is unfolding in recent meetings with OEMs. Sirius has told its clients, which include BMW, Mercedes, Chrysler, Ford, Kia, Land Rover, Jaguar and many others, that they must switch to XM by 2016. For the car makers that helped make Sirius XM what it is today, there are no special subsidies, no silver bullet hardware fix or retrofit. There is simply a notification that they must switch from Sirius to XM by 2016. The bottom line, of course, is that the two satellite systems – one based on a satellite in geosynchronous orbit and one on satellites in geostationary orbits and using similar frequencies – require different receivers and antennas. In spite of a legal requirement in the merger agreement that the companies find a solution for interoperability, nothing beyond a combination of the two incompatible receivers and antennas was ever introduced in the market. The quiet announcement of the switch to XM, though long anticipated, is surprising for a number of reasons: 1. The companies must have known this day would come when they originally merged, yet it was never acknowledged until recently that one of the satellite networks would have to be sacrificed. 2. Given the fact that subscriber growth has reached a plateau it is clear that Sirius XM can ill afford to lose half its subscribers. And winning new subscribers in the current competitive environment will be a challenge especially as auto sales – the source of the majority of new subscribers – continue to move sideways, failing to provide the engine satellite radio so desperately needs. 3. Car makers – including several premium marks - are incensed that Sirius is making this unilateral change with little or nothing in the way of guidelines or even a public information campaign strategy. Sirius has made no public statement yet and company representatives have failed to respond to repeated requests for comment. 4. There is also some irony in the fact that Sirius spent many years denegrating XM's solution but in the end has chosen to consolidate on the XM platform. Long term, the good news is that the company selected to preserve XM, the more robust of the two solutions. XM was first to market with data solutions for weather (XM Weather in August 2003), traffic (XM NavTraffic on 2005 Acura RL and XM NavWeather on the Acura TL. Sirius made up some ground with the launch of Travel Link by Ford, but XM’s platform, including its terrestrial repeater network, is better suited to providing a wider range of content and services to drivers. If Sirius can keep car makers on board with a vision of low-cost, nationwide content delivery – and the higher ARPU implied therein – it may emerge profitably and competitively vis-à-vis smartphone and digital radio-based solutions. But the company is changing gears just as these new solutions are gaining momentum and at a time when car makers have little patience for another high-wire act. Further Insight: CES 2010: The Arrival of Converged Automotive Multimedia Products - John Canali -  http://bit.ly/9gq4yo Automotive Bluetooth: Profile Strategy Key to Infotainment Success - Mark Fitzgerald - http://bit.ly/9qEXbU Internet Radio: Ready for Prime Time - Mark Fitzgerald - http://bit.ly/ZBXzd Internet Radio to Vie with Music Services for Automotive Dominance - Lanctot - blog - http://bit.ly/9xm6qR WorldDMB Car Manufacturers Workshop - Munich - July 7 - Arrange meeting with Strategy Analytics - http://bit.ly/aUcqgm

Stolen vehicle recovery (SVR) suppliers are integrating smartphone and Internet access with remote vehicle control and tracking applications rapidly changing the value proposition for dealers and consumers. The resulting solutions are finding increasing traction as both dealer and port installs and raising the interest of OEMs in offering own-branded SVR solutions.

 

Leading the way in this ongoing integration effort is Guidepoint Systems which has been putting pressure on market leader LoJack. Guidepoint now offers a smartphone integration with remote vehicle control functionality and an Internet portal for determining vehicle location and status – functions which are also supported by the company’s call center.

 

Any confusion as to whether Guidepoint has LoJack in its cross hairs should be removed by the pricing and positioning of Guidepoint’s dealer offer. While LoJack is normally offered at $695 for the basic theft prevention package with a $395 bump for its early warning solution and another $295 for its $5K warranty proposition; Guidepoint has a $795 basic stolen vehicle recovery package with a $395 early theft alert and an additional $5K theft protection plan for $99.

 

Guidepoint’s focus is the automobile dealer channel, but the company has begun closing some direct relationships with OEMs. Competitor Cimble, which showed its products at the Telematics Update event last week, is also pursuing OEM relationships for dealer and port installs.

 

Cimble claims to have port and dealer install programs in the works with Honda, BMW, Subaru and Toyota (for two regions). Mopar is thought to have a similar product offering in the works from an unnamed supplier, due later this year. And Ford offers SmartAlert from Skyway Systems (acquired several years ago by Innelec) as an official licensed Ford product.

 

The importance of these developments is that it shows OEMs seeking to take more control of a valuable piece of dealer aftermarket business. Stolen vehicle recovery has long been the captive realm of LoJack and its RF solution – to the consternation of OEM accessory managers.

 

The arrival of telematics systems with their own stolen vehicle recovery capabilities at OnStar, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and, most recently, Toyota Motor Sales in the U.S., have had only a modest impact on LoJack’s dealer business. OnStar probably had the greatest influence with its vehicle slowdown enhancement. But the new branded accessory solutions, integrating both GPS and cellular technology, may be beginning to get LoJack’s attention.

 

LoJack still has the advantage of being built around stealthy RF technology, which is better able to penetrate a wider range of barriers, and is supported by the installation of tracking equipment by cooperative police forces in 28 states – most recently joined by Utah. But LoJack has been reporting consecutive quarters with losses, including $5.6M in its first quarter reported last month.

 

LoJack’s weaknesses include its inability to offer universal geographic coverage and the lack of a relationship with OEMs. Since OEMs have not been given a “cut” of LoJack’s business, the company has long been seen as an interloper.

 

Perhaps a greater shortcoming of LoJack is its business model. LoJack is a set it and forget it solution. After the initial upfront payment and installation there is no further interaction with the customer. This lack of interaction means there is a limited upsell opportunity.

 

Worse even than this business model, though, is the fact that most LoJack systems are sold as a basic package which requires the customer to report the stolen vehicle to LoJack. (LoJack does offer a step-up keyfob-based service which provides an early warning to the customer if the vehicle is moved without the keyfob.)

 

In contrast, GPS-based products not only provide vehicle locator functionality they also allow, in the case of Guidepoint, for a pro-active call to the customer if the vehicle is moved, violates a geo-fence or if the wireless connection to the vehicle is lost. Guidepoint can then notify the police and the vehicle can be located by Guidepoint.

 

The added functionality afforded by GPS technology means the new OEM-branded offerings allow more flexible pricing and marketing models. Guidepoint is perhaps the most unusual market player in maintaining its own call centers and offering services ranging from roadside assistance and concierge support to the ability to disable a vehicle if it is stolen.

 

Interestingly, Guidepoint also offers a member rewards program and has a relationship with Liberty Mutual and is also active in the buy-here pay-here market for customers with compromised credit. Guidepoint also has a cooperation in aftermarket navigation systems with Rosen Entertainment integrating Guidepoint SVR and concierge functionality via an on-screen button.

 

 Guidepoint privately refers to its offering as “OnStar on steroids,” but the company does not offer automatic crash notification functionality because of liability concerns. The key to the Guidepoint business model is the initial call the customer makes to Guidepoint upon activating the service. Guidepoint call center responders are trained to introduce new customers to the complete range of available service enhancements.

 

The power of the integration of smartphone and Internet interfaces has not been lost on companies in the 12V aftermarket channel, such as CompuStar and Auto Page. Later this year, CompuStar (by Firstech) will introduce an iPhone app which works with the company’s DroneMobile iPhone app/module for remote starting, tracking and security.

 

According to a report in CEOutlook (http://ceoutlook.com) the CompuStar solution works with remote starters from multiple companies and allows users to lock and unlock the car, release the trunk, remote start the vehicle, control sliding doors and heated seats, track the car and control the security system from their phone.

Users can also view the car’s battery voltage, temperature and alarm status and can set geo-fenced areas. CEOutlook says the DroneMobile DR-1000 will be available in two packages: $549.99 suggested list including basic installation or a $349 package available without the remote starter. Users get one year of basic service. GPS tracking requires a premium service plan. Auto Page is another company that has taken the iPhone plunge.

 

As for LoJack, the company reported in Q1 that “penetration rates are consistent with those of the fourth quarter of 2009, demonstrating that our business has not been negatively impacted by any competing technology.” LoJack says its U.S. unit volumes increased each month of the first quarter with March delivering a double-digit increase. .

 

In the words of one LoJack executive on the company’s earnings call: “As the U.S. auto market recovers, we expect that our installations will increase in a manner that is consistent with the broader domestic auto market trends. We are cautiously optimistic about the broader U.S. auto market based on recent projections that indicate new vehicle sales may exceed prior expectations of 11 to 11.5 million units.”

 

LoJack clearly anticipates healthy business as usual, but even in an environment where theft rates are on the rise, the company may be challenged by the growing influx of GPS/cellular-based solutions - especially as car makers seek to take back the SVR business. The added enhancement of smartphone integration and remote functionality may ultimately force the company to reconsider its RF-only proposition.

Further Insight: http://bit.ly/aIm4vK - Global Automotive OE Telematics Market 2008-2016 - Joanne Blight

Where some see nothing but travail, others see opportunity. TomTom is among those in the latter group. As both TomTom and chief rival Garmin, in their recent earnings reports, admitted to flattening sales of standalone PNDs, the two have set out on divergent strategies.

 

For Garmin, the strategy is diversification emphasizing marine, aviation and outdoor recreation. TomTom, on the other hand, like an embattled ship captain at sea, is turning towards enemy fire – narrowing its focus on providing the best navigation/routing/traffic solution with connectivity as a wild card. In spite of the brilliance of its European strategy, though, the U.S. remains an Achilles heel for TomTom.

 

This week TomTom clarified its plans to implement a new open platform and push its connected device strategy. TomTom’s approach is not without risk, but no one can fault the company for being bold. When Google is breathing down your neck it is certainly time to be bold.

 

The cornerstone of the company’s new strategy is a reduction in the monthly fee for TomTom’s HD Traffic subscriptions from 9.95 Euro/month to 5 Euro/month. But there is much more to the campaign than a simple price cut.

 

First of all, TomTom is able to adjust its pricing because of a new deal with Vodafone. Where Vodafone had a revenue share in the past, it now receives a flat fee from TomTom. While the revenue share may have been satisfactory – as TomTom recruited 700,000 Live Service subscribers – the thinking is that the flat fee will make more sense for both parties as TomTom engages in a broad PND/navi connectivity campaign.

 

As part of the new campaign, purchasers of TomTom connected PNDs – beginning early in June (in Europe) -  will get a full year of free access to HD Traffic data. After that first free year, customers can subscribe at 5 Euro/month or annually for 49.99, a 10 Euro savings on the monthly subscription.

 

TomTom’s objective in launching this program is to increase the purchasing percentage of connected devices from 40% in 2010 to 60% in 2011 and 80% in 2012. Given the fact that the average PND/navi – by TomTom estimates – lasts 3-4 years before replacement, the company expects that 90% of its customers could be connected by 2014.

 

By TomTom’s estimates, that means a user population of more than 25M units reporting GPS probe data for traffic analysis on top of the existing Vodafone cellular hand-off data. TomTom and Strategy Analytics are certainly in agreement on a few things, chief among which is that traffic data is the single most important data element to navigation device users.

 

This analyst believes that TomTom’s HD Traffic is the industry standard for accurate traffic data. TomTom, not surprisingly, also believes this to be true and is expanding the scope of HD Traffic data to 16 European countries from 7, although the timeframe is unclear. Live Services will also be offered to a wider base of 14 European countries.

TomTom is a little unclear on which countries will get HD Traffic or Live Services and when. The company actually has a total of 30 countries set for Live Services launch within the next 12 months, 17 of which are expected to get HD Traffic.

 

Clearly, HD Traffic has become a key to TomTom’s strategy. It is a critical differentiator. But TomTom recognizes that competitors are working aggressively to integrate both their own cellular hand-off data inputs and GPS probe data. The new TomTom strategy appears to be targeted at cementing the company’s existing traffic leadership position ahead of the arrival of competitors.

 

TomTom’s Vodafone relationship is unique “force multiplier” for TomTom. The hand-off data not only gives TomTom an industry-leading traffic solution, it also opens doors to logistics business opportunities such as billboard, cell tower and store location and municipal and regional traffic management.

 

But TomTom’s ability to extend this advantage to the U.S. has run into intransigent U.S. carriers and existing players – AirSage and IntelliOne – that have already negotiated their own access to cellular hand-off data. This impasse is evidenced in the TomTom product plan which includes devices with “local” and “Euro-wide” data, but only a handful of models that merit a mention of U.S. data.

 

TomTom says its new campaign will eschew “ultra-low margin” products and price points and focus on mid-high segment products targeted at replacement buyers. The strategy appears to be an acknowledgement of two key issues:

 

#1 – PND/navi buyers are a unique breed and prone to replacement purchases. TomTom claims a high customer loyalty rate (80%) and clearly wants to win over Garmin customers.

#2 – Most of the growth in navigation is coming from mobile/smartphone and embedded navigation customers.

 

Which brings us to the final “fly-in-the-ointment” for TomTom. TomTom’s own market survey’s show traffic as the single most popular application for navigation customers, a finding corroborated by Strategy Analytics studies. TomTom also acknowledges in its own research that Google Search is the second most popular application.

 

While TomTom has opened up its platform – via its implementation of the Webkit OS – and plans to open an application store, the company will eventually have to reckon with Google. TomTom has no answer to the bottomless pit of POI data resident within Google.

 

TomTom’s community-based approach to map updates and POI data is a powerful answer to the strategies of OpenStreetMaps and Waze. But unless TomTom can find a POI or search partner to counter Google its bold new marketing campaign may come to naught.

 

Additional insights:

http://bit.ly/bMeg36 - Global Mobile Handset Navigation Forecast 2004-2014 – Nitesh Patel - Navigation and Location Opportunities http://bit.ly/aoQdpd - North America Mobile Handset Navigation Forecast 2004-2014 – Nitesh Patel – Wireless Media Strategies http://bit.ly/aHhWeV - Nokia & Google Shake Up $3.8 B Handset Navigation Market - Nitesh Patel - Wireless Media Strategies http://bit.ly/cc6O9K - PND Owners Unlikely to Discontinue Using Their Device - Chris Schreiner - Automotive Consumer Insights http://bit.ly/c5f65I - Automotive and Portable Navigation Market Forecast 2008-2016 - Joanne Blight - Automotive Multimedia and Communications Systems http://bit.ly/b5W8ZS - Nokia and RIM Push Into Automotive as ‘Apps’ Competition Mounts - Joanne Blight - Automotive Multimedia and Communications Systems http://bit.ly/9NoM13 - From Probes to Crowd to Community to Ads – Traffic Data Evolving Rapidly - Roger Lanctot - blog - Global Automotive Practice

The business of capturing and reporting real-time traffic data is on the verge of a deluge of data from millions of GPS probes. From Google to RIM to TCS, TeleNav, Nokia/Navteq and others, the integration of handset GPS data feeds will transform the industry and alter consumer acceptance of traffic data. The importance of this development is the fact that consumers surveyed by Strategy Analytics, time and again, indicate that traffic data is the single most important application on their portable device followed closely by navigation. This is no surprise to marketers who are keen to target customers potentially on the move from one place of business to another and seeking to get there in the most efficient manner possible - which is to say, the supplier that delivers the highest quality real-time traffic data will have a privileged marketing platform for delivering advertising messages. But the onset of traffic data enhancements, though happening swiftly, will unfold as part of an evolution of traffic data that will progress from the combination of public and fleet data of today, to the aggregation of GPS data and crowd-sourced inputs, to the traffic “communities” of the near future. This transition will test the current market leaders and could shuffle the leadership ranks, but it will also reveal new opportunities for information and content sharing. Among the industry leaders watched most closely is Nokia Navteq. With the largest number of mobile devices deployed, Nokia is in the most powerful position to leverage GPS probe data. (Editor's note: updated info from Nokia Navteq follows) Navteq is using GPS probe data to enable accelerated expansion of its Navteq Traffic coverage including primary and secondary roads. The company says probe data is an integral part of its global probe data strategy. Navteq is currently collecting and integrating Nokia probe data records for Navteq Traffic in Belgium, Brazil, France, Finland, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada with plans to expand. The company expects to benefit from the growing variety of connected devices also using Navteq data and services. Navteq says that nearly 23M processed probe records are integrated into Navteq Traffic monthly in the U.S. in major metropolitan areas including Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, New York, Orlando, San Francisco and Seattle. Worldwide, Navteq is collecting 3B probe records including Nokia data and anticipate a doubling of that figure by the end of 2010. Most executives in the industry now agree that TomTom’s HD Traffic solution, built around cellular signaling data and TomTom’s Live Service subscriber probe data, is the state of the art for real-time traffic data. The service is available in six European countries including Germany, where this analyst has used it side-by-side with RDS-TMC data. Nothing this analyst has seen has come close to the apparent completeness and accuracy of the real-time traffic data reporting on a connected TomTom. Long accustomed to incorrect traffic information delivered on a variety of embedded and mobile devices, I found the HD Traffic solution to be a revelation. In several days of driving on autobahns throughout Northern Germany it never once told me I was in a “stau” when I wasn’t or vice versa. Traffic information that contradicts reality continues to be the industry bugaboo. Just as important, the TomTom solution doesn’t rely solely on color-coded roads. The key interface is the barometer on the right hand side of the screen which shows the distance to the next point of traffic congestion and the anticipated delay. At this point in the evolution of traffic information delivery, color codes don’t cut it. They are nothing more than a distraction. With the arrival of mobile phone navigation applications the industry is poised to take a leap forward and sideways at the same time. The leap forward is the potential to replicate the HD Traffic experience on more navigation platforms. The sideways move is that this leap is taking place in connection with a device offering a much smaller screen for delivering up-to-date traffic information to drivers. In addition, with so many new players integrating new data sets for the first time there is bound to be confusion and user interface missteps. After all, if it were easy to convert mobile phone data into real-time traffic feeds this problem would have been solved a long time ago. To remove any doubts about the rising influence of mobile phone navigation, one need look no further than the recent financial reports of TeleCommunications Systems (TCS) – which acquired Networks in Motion – and TeleNav – which completed its initial public offering last week. In its earnings call, TCS said it expects $55-$65 million in mobile phone navigation subscription/sales revenue in 2010 and ongoing revenue growth of 30 percent/year going forward. TeleNav reported that it had 14.5M navigation subscribers/customers (up from 11M at the end of September 2009) and revenue of $122M for the nine month period ended March 30^th, a growth rate of 59 percent. While TCS says it has 5-6 percent penetration of its addressable carrier customer base and anticipates increasing that to 30-50 percent, TeleNav claims a 20-25 percent rate of penetration. TeleNav, TCS and TomTom are all seeking to build their subscription bases as swiftly as they can which has led to discounting and bundling, thereby impacting average revenue per user (ARPU). All three companies have indicated a disinclination to share their ARPU figures. TCS has been coy about disclosing the size of its subscriber base. It remains to be seen if TeleNav and TomTom will continue to be forthcoming about their subscriber numbers. All of these numbers are vital to discerning consumer preferences for different business models and could serve as a competitive advantage for these early movers. The integration of anonymous handset signaling data currently used by TomTom, is likely to be supplanted by handset GPS data feeds. And the availability of GPS data feeds has greatly lowered the barriers to entry to the traffic business. Any company from industry titans such as Inrix and rising heavyweight Google to scrappy start-ups like Skobbler (which recently became the first navigation supplier to use OpenStreetMaps) can introduce a mobile phone application that will immediately start reporting GPS data for integration in a real-time traffic platform. Industry executives agree that the GPS data is more accurate an easier to process than hand-off data. That does not mean that signaling data will go away, especially since TomTom continues to use it, but it does represent a change that could ultimately manifest in changing user preferences if the “quality” or accuracy of one type of data is found to be or perceived to be superior to the other. Miles Traffic and Travel – a consortium of ITIS Holdings (U.K.), Infoblu (Italy) and MediaMobil (France) – is also making use of cellular hand-off data and has been chosen by BMW as its traffic data provider for Europe. MT&T is positioning itself as the first challenger to TomTom’s HD Traffic solution. All industry participants agree that the aggregation and integration of hand-off data is a non-trivial exercise. Case in point, AirSage and IntelliOne have been trying to deliver anonymous hand-off data in a commercial solution for years with no success to date. But even the arrival of handset data will not represent the “end of the road” in the evolution of real-time traffic data. The next step is already apparent in the quiet emergence of aha mobile, Telmap, Waze, TrafficTalk and other potential players seeking to build communities around the delivery of traffic and routing information. Aha mobile’s content and services aggregation platform serves as a front end for the full range of Internet-accessible content, including traffic and navigation information. Aha mobile’s traffic solution, though, allows drivers to share geo-coded traffic observation inputs with one another – in other words, an aha mobile user could literally share with fellow travelers what he or she is seeing out the car window. The aha mobile solution represents the same kind of ultra-local location data that Telmap is  trying to provide with the location aware services that are part of its navigation application. Waze also creates a community around traffic, navigation and the creation of the navigation map. For its part, TrafficTalk is seeking to build user communities around specific commuting corridors where drivers can share voice inputs regarding traffic conditions in their immediate vicinity. Today, the industry is poised for the next round of the shoot out at the OK Traffic Corral. All the major players have new ammunition in the form of handset GPS data and the emergence of this new source of data is creating new competitors and new opportunities. But this enhancement to traffic information is just another bend in the road which will lead to traffic information communities sharing on-the-ground information which will transform the industry yet again and set the stage for the next advance. Additional Insights: http://bit.ly/bMeg36 - Global Mobile Handset Navigation Forecast 2004-2014 – Nitesh Patel - Navigation and Location Opportunities http://bit.ly/aoQdpd - North America Mobile Handset Navigation Forecast 2004-2014 – Nitesh Patel – Wireless Media Strategies http://bit.ly/aHhWeV - Nokia & Google Shake Up $3.8 B Handset Navigation Market - Nitesh Patel - Wireless Media Strategies http://bit.ly/cc6O9K - PND Owners Unlikely to Discontinue Using Their Device - Chris Schreiner - Automotive Consumer Insights http://bit.ly/c5f65I - Automotive and Portable Navigation Market Forecast 2008-2016 - Joanne Blight - Automotive Multimedia and Communications Systems http://bit.ly/b5W8ZS - Nokia and RIM Push Into Automotive as 'Apps' Competition Mounts - Joanne Blight - Automotive Multimedia and Communications Systems

Audiovox Corporation reported a profitable fourth quarter and fiscal year today suggesting a significant turnaround fueled by the resurgent automotive industry generally and recovering satellite radio and rearseat entertainment categories specifically. The report was terrific news for Audiovox, which held its earnings call this morning, but the good news seemed somewhat empty in view of a lack of innovative new solutions or even a stated vision of vehicle connectivity from the normally creative electronics supplier.The company built upon the good earnings news by announcing that it foresees developing a $100M OE portfolio for fiscal 2011 thanks to the addition of Qualcomm’s in-vehicle Flo-TV business and the acquisition of RSE supplier Invision and remote start/vehicle security player Omega. Invision’s existing RSE deals with GM and Toyota represented a solid shot in the arm to Audiovox’s own aftermarket business. The electronics segment of Audiovox’s business saw a revenue decline in fiscal 2010 due to reductions in inventory and the exit from several product lines including flat panel televisions and portable navigation devices. Combining the Invision RSE line with its own aftermarket RSE business, Audiovox now boasts relationships with GM, Ford, Chrysler, Nissan, Hyundai, Porsche, Kia, BMW, Toyota, Subaru and Mazda. With expectations of 11M cars being sold in calendar 2010 in the U.S., Audiovox expects the current boost in its fortunes to continue. The electronics segment’s sales were $375M for fiscal 2010, down 16.6% vs. the year-ago period due mainly to the decline in automobile sales and the recessionary economic environment. The company pointed to the positive impact from new programs with Sirius XM, Sony (PS3 integration with RSE system) and Flo-TV and noted that the acquisition of Invision has been instrumental in positioning the company to build on its existing OE relationships. Many of Audiovox’s existing relationships derive from the support of its own expeditor network, one of the largest and most effective installer networks in the industry. In its earnings call, Audiovox said mobile sales were up over the fiscal 2009 fourth quarter due primarily to increases in satellite radio, security and multi-media products, and the addition of new sales from Invision, Omega and Flo-TV. As a percentage of net sales, Electronics represented 71.4 percent of sales for the fiscal 2010 fourth quarter as compared to 62.3 percent for the comparable period in fiscal 2009 - demonstrating the increased importance of mobile electronics sales.

Audiovox is uniquely positioned for a range of significant automotive business opportunities including remote vehicle connectivity and security and video distribution within the car. The company does offer a range of head unit products that provide for multiple connectivity options and continues to offer non-desktop computing platforms suitable to automotive applications. The onset of connectivity and social networking present a range of potentially profitable opportunities awaiting a solution from Audiovox..

 

If there was anything missing from the earnings call it was a statement of strategy vis a vis social networking applications and Audiovox’s plans to capitalize on the trend. The partnership with Qualcomm for Flo-TV represents one avenue for Audiovox to connect with the rapidly growing smartphone market. The company introduced the Jensen Anyware Ultra-Mobile PC last fall, but there was no mention of the product on today’s earnings call, nor was their mention of Audiovox’s range of head unit offerings under multiple brands. Perhaps the next earnings call will bring news of more creative mobile initiatives and a vision of future vehicle connectivity.

TomTom interrupted the epitaph writers last week with a spunky earnings call and a stunning customer presentation ushering in a new portable navigation device architecture and strategy modeled on the mobile phone market. The earnings report was significant both for the company’s ability to parry analyst skepticism and its self bestowal of the title: “fastest growing European telematics company.”

 

Skepticism surrounding TomTom’s ability to continue to grow and do so in a profitable manner was laid to rest by the Q1 2010 report which showed a 26% increase in revenue and a profit. The revenue gain came in spite of declining PND sales overall with TomTom claiming market share gains in Europe and North America.

 

The skepticism was expressed by multiple analysts on the earnings call repeatedly questioning the short- and long-term impact on TomTom of smartphone navigation. TomTom executives were quick to point out that 10M navigation application downloads, as reported by Nokia, did not directly translate into regular, daily use of smartphones for navigation.

 

TomTom’s broader survival strategy became clearer from a quick review of the earnings report which showed its non-consumer lines of business – a newly created categy – capturing 31% of revenue in Q1 ’10, up from 24% in ’09. The non-consumer segments consist of TomTom Work, licensing and the automotive business. (TomTom reports a 40% attach rate for its solution at Renault and claims 10% automotive market share as its solution is extended to additional Fiat and Renault models.)

 

TomTom Work showed 41% subscriber growth year-on-year to 104,000, well short of the 300,000 subscribers targeted for 2011, but enough to justify TomTom’s claim of being the “Fastest Growing Telematics Company in Europe.” The figure is even more important when one considers this is one of the highest gross margin businesses in TomTom’s portfolio, according to the company.

 

To round out the rosy picture TomTom pointed to the 700,000 Live Service enabled devices currently in use by consumers enabling a range of service and content transactions (including sharing of traffic and speed cam data), all of which are also exceptionally profitable to TomTom, again according to the company. With its newly announced webkit architecture strategy and adoption of the smartphone app store model (http://bit.ly/9q1jIV), TomTom hopes to build this user base.

 

An interesting note to this effort to build the TomTom user base is the fact that TomTom says it will no longer provide quarterly reports of device unit sales or average selling prices. The reason for this reticence is the company’s stated intention to alter its business model to build the base of users. Clearly TomTom is alluding to the potential for subsidizing sales of PNDs along the mobile phone model – a strategy long toyed with by the industry but never fully adopted.

 

TomTom did not specifically confirm its intention to subsidize PND sales. But this interpretation is supported by the somewhat ambiguous comments expressed in the earnings call and in the context of its plans to build its subscriber base.

 

Once TomTom has brought its open platform and app store model completely into the marketplace, expect subsidized devices, particularly among the new, simplified TomTom Ease line. The objective is to build a larger user base producing a wider range of shared location information which will become increasingly accurate (traffic) and useful (user evaluations) as the subscriber community grows.

 

TomTom’s aim is to achieve daily relevance from daily usage by a wide subscriber base. To further hedge its bets TomTom is adding new automotive relationships – such as Ford’s announced intention to use TomTom maps and content – and continuing its expansion into emerging markets (Ukraine, Morocco, Mexico, and India) where further PND growth is expected. The pieces are falling into place for Europe’s fastest growing telematics company, which has chased away the skeptics once again.

 

Further Insight:

 

http://bit.ly/cMw4f1 - Solid Q4 for PNDs, but 'Free' Navigation is Shaking Up Monetisation - John Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communication Service

 

http://bit.ly/bMeg36 - Global Mobile Handset Navigation Forecast 2004-2014 - Nitesh Patel – Navigation and Location Opportunities

 

http://bit.ly/8Yo4U6 - Nokia & Google Shake Up $3.8 B Handset Navigation Market - Nitesh Patel – Navigation and Location Opportunities

TomTom was once the darling of the portable navigation market, charging onto the scene with innovative marketing and product offerings and buoyed by strong market growth driven by Europe’s world-leading embrace of navigation devices. The latest earnings results from both TomTom and chief rival Garmin, however, paint a picture of a hot hardware market segment hitting a plateau.

 

Is it game over for TomTom? How did the company peak so soon? Where has the growth in the PND segment gone? It is my contention that one reason for the current decline in prospects derives from the company’s shift to a closed platform back in 2005 more aligned with rival Garmin.

 

TomTom captured the imagination of consumers and industry observers in the early days of the PND market with innovative solutions that included one of the first major crowd sourcing exercises in the form of its TomTom Live services which included map updates provided by users. The power of the TomTom Live platform was such that TomTom was able to build a more than million-strong user community whose enthusiasm was reflected in both the millions of map updates and corrections they contributed along with the navigation voices they recorded and shared.

 

It’s hard to overstate the power of the kind of customer connection TomTom achieved with the TomTom Live service. In effect, TomTom solved the challenge of map updating years before any other organization in any other segment had come up with an answer - with the exception of server-based solutions. In the most recent earnings call, the company says it intends to offer map updates on a 48-hour cycle, instead of the industry-standard quarterly updates – once again, setting an industry standard.

 

TomTom continued to build momentum – let’s call it “mojo” - by capitalizing on the critical importance of traffic and routing applications adding its HD Traffic and IQ Routes enhancements. The company led the way in connected PNDs claiming 900,000 units sold in the past fiscal year and laying claim to 400,000 combined paying or on-trial-period subscribers, admittedly below company objectives.

 

But something fell apart in the past year. Evidence of the performance shortfall included the inability to successfully convince a sufficient number of consumers to pay 10 Euro/month for traffic data, even if it was demonstrably superior to competing traffic data. But the one-two punch of flattening sales and declining ASPs in 2009 have combined to deflate TomTom’s (and Garmin’s) prospects forcing the company to turn more aggressively toward non-PND sources of revenue including embedded and smartphone-based solutions.

 

Both Garmin and TomTom reported tepid financial results two weeks ago and offered cautious forecasts for flat PND sales in 2010. Both Garmin and TomTom attempted to dismiss to some extent the impact of smartphone-based navigation solutions. TomTom, in particular, claimed the three different navigation platforms – embedded automotive, smartphone and PND – are not “mutually exclusive” and “somehow strengthen each other.”

 

Both Garmin and TomTom are targeting mobile applications with TomTom making its traffic solution available for the iPhone along with an iPhone mounting kit for in-vehicle use – a wise strategy of embracing rather than confronting competition. Both companies are also pursuing automotive opportunities with TomTom’s most recent design wins coming at Renault and Fiat. Interestingly, Fiat showed new TomTom solutions at the Geneva Motor Show while also showing a mobile phone mount concept from Magneti Marelli for Nokia navigation phones.

 

Very much overlooked in TomTom’s run up to its dominant position in the European PND market was the company’s offering of a software developer kit. But the company abandoned the open platform approach in 2005, while driving innovation almost entirely internally along with some targeted acquisitions.

 

TomTom was first in developing a connected user community willing to correct map data and POIs and share favorite routes and voices. These users also demonstrated that there was a market for content that could be downloaded to TomTom devices. Sound familiar? This is exactly the model adopted by most major handset makers in the past year following the wildly successful Apple iPhone.

 

The big difference between these handset makers and TomTom is that smartphones are based on open platforms for which independent software developers can create new applications. It probably isn’t too late for TomTom to change its approach to the market, opening up its platform to third-party content and application developers. This could well be the key to turning around the bleak numbers reported in the most recent quarter.

 

A growing range of new applications from third-party suppliers can add functionality and value to a TomTom device over time, in contrast to the usual perceived decline in value over time of a typical consumer electronic product. Apple, Google and others are demonstrating daily that there is mojo in open platforms. It’s not too late for TomTom to dial in.

CSR is capitalizing on the strength of its GPS line up acquired from SiRF to garner automotive segment wins for its Bluetooth and Wi-Fi solutions, according to the company’s latest earnings report. In its fourth quarter and full year earnings report last week, CSR reported a revenue increase of 149% for its automotive and PND segment. With the addition of SiRF, the combined automotive and PND division now accounts for 21% of total company revenue vs. 7% in the prior year. CSR said fourth quarter demand was strong as a result of the increasing volume of new cars being built and a general move to embed more connectivity and location technologies in those new cars. CSR, which is better known for its dominant position in the handset Bluetooth market, claims combined Bluetooth and GPS leadership in the automotive market. The company also noted it had secured a design-win at a Tier 1 automotive supplier for its latest generation Wi-Fi, the UF6000. The company noted weak PND demand in Europe and the U.S. which was compensated for by increased levels of demand in the Far East and the developing world. CSR announced a design-win for a leading North American electronics manufacturer’s new connected PNDs where CSR is providing both GPS and Bluetooth. In Europe, CSR secured a design-win with Vincotech for new GPS modules and telematics product platforms. CSR says its SiRFPrima high-end SoC platform focused on the in-dash automotive market also received two design-wins in China expected to lead to significant volumes. Overall, CSR says its has begun mass production and shipping of its Wi-Fi/BT/FM connectivity platform; a GPS design win for a N. Am. smartphone maker; and BT and FM design wins for Tier One handset makers. CSR sees “positive trends” in the adoption of wireless connectivity technologies by the automotive sector.  Many vehicles already feature Bluetooth and GPS and the company believes Wi-Fi is a next step. The most important development for CSR in 2009 was that automotive emerged as a substantial third market segment, picking up slack from the company’s audio and consumer segment which saw revenue nearly halved during the year. CSR is now poised to leverage its complete wireless portfolio of Bluetooth, GPS, FM, NFC and Wi-Fi to address emerging automotive opportunities. For additional Strategy Analytics perspectives on in-vehicle connectivity: Global Automotive Vehicle-Device Connectivity Forecast 2008-2016 - http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportFormatsViewer&a0=5289 Vehicle-Device Connectivity to Drive Adoption of CD-Less Systems - http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=5293