Next week American Honda Motors will introduce its 2011 Odyssey at the Los Angeles Auto Show. The car comes equipped with what the company calls FM Traffic. This seemingly innocuous announcement marks a shift in the industry with wide ranging implications for both automotive radio and on-board traffic information.

Auto makers are confronting major decisions regarding content delivery to the car and the configuration of the center stack. The battle lines for content delivery divide over the question of embedding a telecommunications module or connecting the driver’s smartphone. Smartphone connectivity shifts the data plan burden onto the driver, while embedding allows wider latitude for vehicle data collection by the OEM.

The radio is the beating heart of the center stack and here a struggle is unfolding between and among traditional AM/FM technology, HD Radio, satellite radio and Internet radio. The battlelines are drawn over content delivery, personalization, localization, monetization and flexibility. Honda’s FM Traffic is based on RDS-TMC, a free (to the consumer) traffic data service delivered over the FM sideband. RDS-TMC represents the state of the art in North America for delivering accurate and timely information on traffic conditions. The Honda solution is unique in that it is supplied by the Broadcast Traffic Consortium (BTC), a nationwide group of broadcasters allied with Navteq.

The industry will have to wait until next week to see how Honda has implemented incident and flow messages, but it is likely that Honda and its supplier, Alpine, have added value to the traffic reporting proposition (http://automobiles.honda.com/traffic/). Alpine will also be bringing the BTC RDS-TMC solution to its aftermarket products. Honda is only the second North American OEM to deploy RDS-TMC from BTC, following Mercedes-Benz. More are expected.

The dominant RDS-TMC supplier in North America is Clear Channel, which is partnered with Inrix. The Clear Channel solution is offered by BMW, Volvo, Mazda and a few other OEMs. Honda’s decision is significant given that the company also offers Sirius XM’s NavTraffic service, which requires a monthly subscription. But Honda’s choice reflects several hard truths for the industry:

Truth #1 – The value of traffic data is declining. Once valued at $1/user/month, traffic data has declined in value to 25 cents/user/month or less at the supplier level. For the consumer, traffic information is perceived as free – especially since so much of it is readily available over radio and television broadcast sources as well as from Depts. of Transportation via the Internet. RDS-TMC traffic information is also free (to the consumer) and, therefore, fits this model and mindset.

Truth #2 – RDS-TMC traffic data is better than good enough. Anyone who has used RDS-TMC-equipped navigation systems in a heavy traffic corridor can attest to its accuracy and reliability. Satellite radio traffic information, by comparison, is not competitive – based on this analyst’s experiences. (Some European RDS-TMC data, Germany in particular, is the exception to this.)

Truth #3 – Traffic information services continue to evolve and improve and service providers must evolve along with them. While HD Radio deployment of TPEG traffic data services will be the next step, it will be followed quickly by solutions based on smartphone integration and, ultimately, embedded traffic data platforms that provide for Internet connectivity. All of this is bad news for Sirius XM. The company is already wrestling two alligators – a transition of existing Sirius users to XM service by 2016 (see http://bit.ly/bIWHJ6) and the introduction of Satellite Radio 2.0 in Q4 2011 (see http://bit.ly/bqiU7F).

While managing these two processes, the company is also justifying its existence on a quarterly basis before its investors as a public company.   Traffic data services are key to Sirius XM because they represent the most successful telematics service the company has been able to deliver. Unfortunately, because of the capacity limitations (traffic data for all cities must be delivered down a single connection leading to data being left out due to capacity limitations or delayed due to the carousel-like data transmission) and one-way nature of the satellite pipe, Sirius XM traffic is poor.  

In fact, Sirius XM traffic, based as it is on Navteq’s Traffic.com, has given Navteq’s data service a bad reputation – through no fault of Navteq’s. (This is not to be confused with the city-by-city audio traffic broadcasts provided by Metro Traffic.) Honda’s selection of BTC RDS-TMC is a shot in the arm for Navteq’s traffic team which is looking to bounce back from its reliance on Sirius XM.  The subscriber volume for satellite traffic has been poor as a result of the poor data. Some OEMs do not even offer satellite traffic for their satellite radio systems. This points to a wider problem for satellite radio. The company has yet to find a successful model for branching out beyond talk and music.  

Both Sirius TV (Chrysler) and TravelLink (Ford) are seen in the industry as failed services due to low subscriber volumes. Of course, the business models were also flawed. Sirius TV only offered three channels of rearseat entertainment, a fatal limitation, and most of the TravelLink services – for parking or inexpensive gas – are available on smartphone apps.  Now Sirius XM is setting the stage for Satellite Radio 2.0. In a report to LibertyMedia shareholders last month, CEO Mel Karmazin tipped his hand a bit by referencing the possibility of transmitting local movie times and/or red-light camera info to drivers via satellite radio. He also mentioned enhanced time-shifting technology, presumably from storing or buffering some satellite content.  Other reports regarding Satellite Radio 2.0 suggest more sophisticated search functions for finding particular artists or songs that may be playing at any given time across the voluminous satellite radio dial. Some industry sources say SR 2.0 is expected to have 25% more capacity. It’s not clear whether any of these SR 2.0 possibilities are true, possible or even compelling to future subscribers. 

But Karmazin has a compelling story for investors. He told them last month that OEM penetration of satellite radio as a percentage of new cars was 60% and that the number of satellite radio factory-enabled vehicles in operation in North America was approximately 30M and on a path to hit 80M by 2015. For this reason, the company is continuing to promote certified preowned vehicle programs for satellite radio re-activation – which is seen as a key to future growth.  Karmazin further notes that Sirius XM has some of the lowest subscriber churn in the media landscape (1.8%), has one of the largest subscriber bases (19.5M, second only to Comcast), and now captures 15% of overall radio revenue ($2.8B) vs. $15B for terrestrial radio, and ~$1B for Internet radio/music services. He also notes that satellite radio’s subscriber revenue is $2.8B vs. ~$300M for Internet radio which translates to per subscriber revenue (annual 2009 est.) of $136 vs. $1.25/user for Internet radio and $10-$20/listener for terrestrial radio. 

Conclusions  It’s worth noting that Karmazin made no reference to either HD Radio or to Sirius XM’s stated transition to XM by 2016. While the present looks promising for Sirius XM in the form of rising vehicle sales and the launch of new certified pre-owned vehicle programs, the long-term outlook is less rosy.  The wider deployment of competing and free traffic services should put the last nail in the coffin of Sirius XM’s telematics ambitions. Embedded telematics services and smartphone connectivity, combined with FM- and HD Radio-based solutions, will obviate the need for any Sirius XM data services.  A new front end to Sirius XM’s audio content will provide a short-term lift in allowing for easier access to specific types of music. And premium sports and personality content remain a demand wild card and, combined with nationwide reception, preserve the satellite value proposition.   But car makers are still not likely to integrate satellite radio into the core of their center stack platforms, meaning satellite radio will remain an add-on, particularly given ongoing system upgrades. In a matter of years, cars will be shifting to Internet connected solutions allowing for personalization and location awareness, two propositions with which satellite radio cannot compete. Additional insights: http://bit.ly/dniNxa - Navigation Heuristic Evaluation: Telmap5 – Schreiner – Automotive Consumer Insights http://bit.ly/95NCoW - Automotive DMB Digital Radio: Marketing Strategies an Increasing Priority – Blight – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/dtRE5C - Automotive Telematics Services: Shifts in Pricing and Monetization Expected – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/bwdwcW - Connected Vehicle and Vehicle Device Connectivity System Database by Feature, Region, and Price 2010 – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/d0aLhq - Connected Vehicle Telematics: Car Maker Profiles – Canali – Aumotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/deumcd -# Traffic Data Quality Will Determine #Telematics Winners - Lanctot - blog - Strategy Analytics

The battle is on to capture the most and the most accurate traffic incident data on a global scale. Several strategies are being deployed to collect this information including traditional journalistic traffic reporting and a growing variety of technology-based solutions including GPS-based probe solutions or GPS Floating Vehicle Data (GFVD) from smartphone and connected PND makers and carriers to cellular network-based probes (CFVD), video cameras, mobile phone camera probes and crowdsourcing. GPS-based probe data networks are particularly popular with companies ranging from TomTom and Nokia to Inrix, Google and RIM. The significance of the emergence of probe data is the fact that any organization with connected devices, applications or vehicles on the road is a candidate for delivering probe data. The industry is facing a proliferation of probe data sources encompassing everyone from Waze, Skobbler and Navigon to OnStar, TeleNav and TeleCommunications Systems. The CFVD crowd includes TomTom, AirSage, iTIS Holdings, Cellint, Intellione, TrafficCast and a few others. The inaccuracy of probe data, GPS or otherwise, is stimulating interest in license plate scanners, tolling networks and Bluetooth roadside scanners from companies such as Bluetoad. In fact, TrafficCast has already deployed or received approval to deploy Bluetoad scanners in 20 states. The Bluetoad technology with its range of up to 200 feet picks up signals from passing Bluetooth devices which have become nearly ubiquitous in mobile devices. The beauty of Bluetooth scanners is that they can precisely identify both the roadway and speed, making them ideally suited to creating flow data. The downside, of course, as with all sensor-based sources, is the high cost of deployment – usually borne largely by local DOTs who gain access to the data – and the not infrequent failures to which they are prone. Of course, all of these solutions are only really able to act as proxies for identifying incidents as they can only identify the results and not the causes of backups. That is where cameras and observers and journalistic data from companies such as Clear Channel, Westwood One and Navteq’s Traffic.com come into the picture. Two years ago this analyst was a strong believer in the power that video could bring to the traffic data reporting and interpretation game. When I met the team at TrafficLand I came to believe that I had found the ultimate solution for the driving public: show people what the traffic disturbance is rather than tell them. TrafficLand had – and has – a near monopoly on DOT traffic camera installations, but its real value add is managing those images on the back end. TrafficLand not only captures most of the data but it also serves it up to handheld devices and Websites and, soon, to automotive head units. Alas, a lot can change in two years. Cameras do play an important role in traffic reporting and interpretation, but the cameras that are likely to make a difference are not the ones mounted along highways. Front-facing mobile phone cameras are the new frontier waiting for a clever entrepreneur. More than one industry executive has talked to me about the potential power of a network of camera probes transmitting real-time traffic camera information from the road. The user interface is a potential issue as is the required bandwidth, but what is a market changing proposition without a few challenges? There is more than one way to make such a network come to pass, these executives suggest, including everything from a dedicated dashboard camera to a smartphone-mounted device to a forward-facing camera on a PND or even the use of existing on-board cameras. Solutions already exist. Navigon has shown augmented reality navigation solutions using forward-facing cameras and Imaginyze has a lane-departure warning app based on a similar device. There is even a company, Apollo Video Technology, with an iPhone app to allow transit officials to view live video feeds from buses, trains, police cars and transit vehicles. Even the execs working on the Next Generation 911 solution for the U.S. are looking for ways to integrate video and text reporting of incident information from smartphones or other devices. It shouldn't be too long before a crowd-sourced traffic solution is introduced for smartphones that allows for the automatic uploading of photos and video stills from a dashboard perspective of traffic conditions under predetermined circumstances. To make such a crowd-sourced solution effective requires a sufficiently large and connected network of users and an automated application. In fact, it is almost shocking that neither TomTom nor Nokia have taken the leap into crowd-sourced traffic video feeds. Or is it? While I was a big fan of integrating traffic video feeds into navigation solutions two years ago, with today's emphasis on mitigating distracted driving the idea has lost significant traction. In fact, U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood is on a personal jihad to ban even voice calls while driving. Video is important and can be powerful, but the time is not right and the concepts currently in the oven - including Visteon's TrafficLand app - need more time to reach maturity. What is available today, however, is crowd-sourced traffic data from Inrix via its iPhone app (and soon on Android). The app-based Inrix system is the most complete solution, designed around one-touch incident reporting along with the ability to validate the entries of nearby drivers as well as to share the resulting data with local departments of transportation. Aha Mobile has been combining its own crowd sourced inputs with Inrix flow and Clear Channel incident data since late 2009. In fact, Inrix's approach stands as a model for future crowd-sourced traffic solutions with its tools for ranking participants and identifying "trusted sources" and the integration with local traffic authorities. Since June, 47 of 50 state DOTs in the U.S. have adopted Inrix's agency model for sharing this user-generated data, which the DOTs are able to view on the large screens in their traffic operations centers and then check by dispatching their own responders. Inrix says it is processing these crowd-sourced traffic feeds in real time thereby revolutionizing traffic reporting. In this way, Inrix is distancing itself from the existing competition through the integration of an entirely new source of data and a closed loop approach. The challenge for Inrix, though, is the limited size of its probe network, based on users of the downloadable iPhone app.  To have an impact Inrix, mainly seen as a white box supplier to the industry, will need a little help from its industry friends. Crowd-sourced traffic information has become the new standard and Inrix is setting the bar. Waze may claim to have the largest user population worldwide, but the company has chosen not to integrate other corroborating traffic information sources. Fusion of multiple types of data sources is a critical foundation for using crowd-sourced data, along with building  validation processes. Inrix has the largest North American population of users and has recently rolled out its apps in Europe. It is collaborating with ClearChannel in North America and other incident providers internationally for journalistic data. Crowd-sourcing of traffic data is nothing new. Crowd-sourcing by mobile phone users has been around for decades. It is only recently, though, that smartphone apps have enabled the automation of the process and, now, with Inrix's system, the integration of crowd-sourced data into local DOT traffic feeds - although Inrix traffic app users get the data right away, including inputs from nearby drivers. What is curious is that Inrix, while not the first to market with crowd-sourced traffic, is the first to take it to a level where it is integrated with official traffic feeds. While the crowd inputs are validated or rejected by other users on the network, the local DOT is also involved in the validation process. The open line of communication with local DOTs also means that real time street closings and openings can be transmitted along with incident validation. Inrix is not alone. TeleNav has a crowd-sourcing function for its app and TrafficTalk has been testing a crowd-sourced offering. Harman's Aha Mobile and competing mobile platforms will no doubt seek to bring their own offerings to market as well. Looking at the Inrix model, one has to wonder why TomTom, OnStar, ATX, Google, Nokia, RIM, TCS or TeleNav haven't moved in the same direction. OnStar has its good Samaritan function for reporting accidents, but there is no provision for instantly integrating an OnStar user-reported accident on the in-vehicle navigation/traffic display  - let alone sharing it with public authorities in real-time. The same is true for ATX. Conclusion: The automotive environment is ripe for crowd-sourced applications, which already include the reporting of speed traps (Trapster). The world of thumbs up/thumbs down, check-ins and trusted providers of reviews/data is rapidly proliferating on mobile devices and migrating into embedded automotive solutions. It is fitting that traffic information lead this migration since this form of data is of the highest relevance to drivers and rapidly changing. The power of crowd-sourcing of traffic data has the dual effect of creating a new source of incident data along with its own validation process. One of the greatest challenges to creating reliable traffic information systems is validating journalistic data inputs. The crowd is able to view live traffic data, create new data and validate that data. The next step is to open the taps to other data types from parking and gas pricing to weather and event information. Eventually, crowd-sourced video will work its way into the mix as well - and probably sooner than anyone expects. Additional insights: http://bit.ly/dniNxa - Navigation Heuristic Evaluation: Telmap5 – Schreiner – Automotive Consumer Insights http://bit.ly/95NCoW - Automotive DMB Digital Radio: Marketing Strategies an Increasing Priority – Blight – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/dtRE5C - Automotive Telematics Services: Shifts in Pricing and Monetization Expected – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/bwdwcW - Connected Vehicle and Vehicle Device Connectivity System Database by Feature, Region, and Price 2010 – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/d0aLhq - Connected Vehicle Telematics: Car Maker Profiles – Canali – Aumotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/deumcd -# Traffic Data Quality Will Determine #Telematics Winners - Lanctot - blog - Strategy Analytics

Europe is one of the most competitive markets for traffic data and TomTom claims pan-European market leadership by virtue of its HD Traffic solution. The power of HD Traffic lies in its use of cell signaling data to identify traffic jams and notify drivers who may need to be rerouted or who may want to change their driving plans completely. This analyst is a big fan of HD Traffic, having used it in recent European travels, but the company makes a claim in its latest press announcements that raise questions about HD Traffic even as they call attention to the power of the solution. Taken along with TomTom’s Traffic Manifesto (http://bit.ly/9IHHDj) one wonders if the company is more interested in bravado than actually advancing the art and science of properly interpreting traffic data. It is no small feat for TomTom to be such a standout player in the European market. There are multiple market players in Europe with GPS probe-based solutions, cell signaling solutions and all manner of offerings based on public, private, historic and real-time data “algorithmed” into elegant predictive models. And new predictive models and routing schemes seem to emerge on a regular basis. But TomTom was first on the continent with a multi-country cell signaling solution – HD Traffic – and the company has had it in devices and in use for more than two years with admirable results. Competitors, most notably iTIS Holdings in the cell signaling space, and Nokia Navteq and Inrix with probe-based solutions, are threatening, but the TomTom HD Traffic solution, thus far, remains dominant. All three competitors also integrate other real-time and historical traffic data. At the Paris Auto Show two weeks ago, TomTom announced the release of its next generation traffic data system across Europe. Called HD Traffic 4.0, TomTom says it is the first pan-European solution to use historic, real-time and predictive traffic data to deliver the most accurate traffic navigation available. While there are other traffic providers in Europe that use cell signaling data and similar data sources and types as TomTom, the company remains the only one with its scope of market coverage and with a commercially available retail product. The company says HD Traffic 4.0 covers more of the road network and reports traffic jams with more accuracy, giving drivers the most precise traffic information in Europe. The company says existing HD Traffic customers “will experience the benefits immediately, without the need for any software upgrade.” But at this point in the TomTom press release, the company introduces a bit of murk that both shines a light on its technology and raises questions. TomTom says its real-time and predictive traffic technology “now detects traffic jams that other services are unable to:”“HD Traffic 4.0 reports traffic jams with higher accuracy, reporting up to 200% more traffic jams during rush hours than previously, in particular on urban roads.” –TomTom press release. This claim raises a host of questions about the relative merits of cell signaling data and the very definition of a traffic jam or the quality and accuracy of congestion detection. The critical determining evaluative criterion both academically (see BMW’s Qkz traffic quality standard methodology) and intuitively is: Does this traffic solution detect what I am or what I, as a driver, may experience/perceive/consider to be “congestion?” Cell signaling data, based on triangulation of handset signal strength, is some of the most powerful available traffic data for reasons related to the ubiquity of handsets and the universality of cell signaling. Anyone with a mobile handset that is within range of a cell tower is automatically transmitting location data, which can be interpolated from the cell signals. While advocates of probe data are quick to point out the low level of accuracy of this signal interpolation – perhaps as poor as 100-200 meters – suppliers continue to refine their models and algorithms. The proof is in the pudding. AirSage in the U.S., TrafficCast in China, IntelliOne in Toronto, Cellint in Israel and TomTom and iTIS Holdings in Europe have all produced usable and commercially available traffic flow solutions based on cell signaling. (In fact, the data is not just used in traffic solutions for drivers it is also used in urban planning and in the selection of locations for billboards, stores and cell towers, among numerous other applications.) In contrast, handset GPS probe data not only requires the presence of a GPS module in the handset, but also requires the user to turn the GPS receiver on. The rapid battery consumption of GPS modules guarantees that GPS based solutions, though more accurate, will necessarily be based on a smaller data set.In this context the TomTom claim breaks down two ways. Either TomTom is claiming that it is capable of detecting 3X more (+200%) traffic/congestion incidents than competing solutions on THE SAME roads, or it is claiming to detect 3X more traffic/congestion incidents because its roadway coverage is broader. Further, it appears that the claim is associated with HD Traffic 4.0, which is most likely an enhancement of the existing data interpretation algorithm. Since TomTom appears to be mainly concerned with detecting jams on major roadways, the claim is clearly associated with detecting 3X as many jams on those roads as the competition. The fundamental problem with this claim is that it exposes the single weakest aspect of cell signaling data: FALSE POSITIVES. Because of the combination of the huge volume and low accuracy of cell signaling data, the technology has always been prone to generating false positives. False positives are indications of traffic jams that, in fact, do not exist and are actually misinterpretations of the cell signaling – ie. parked cars mistaken for a jam. In this analysts’ experience, TomTom devices identify multiple jams on the roadway ahead (something not all technologies or devices are able to do) which, more often than not, disappear before the driver arrives at the identified location. In other words, it is not clear whether the multiple congestion points being reported ever really existed. Other detection technologies are equally vulnerable to false positives, but it is the volume of data and the number of false positives that uniquely distinguishes cell signaling-based solutions. To look at the TomTom claim with an even more cynical eye, it is possible to suggest that TomTom simply changed its definition of an accident in order to claim a threefold increase in reported jams. BMW’s Qkz traffic quality standard uses 50Km/h as a measure of congestion detection accuracy. If the standard were raised to 60Km/h, the number of detected points of congestion would increase in a corresponding fashion. TomTom wants to get drivers to their destinations faster by helping them avoid jams. The company claims a 15% improvement in travel time based on its technology. It is time for TomTom to close the gap in logic and explain more precisely and honestly how it is achieving travel time improvements, if it is in fact doing so. By now, most drivers know from painful experience that traffic, like a balloon, is a zero sum game – squeeze it on one side and it simply bulges out the other. It would be good to know whether TomTom’s claims are something more than hot air. Additional insights:http://tinyurl.com/2bz9zq6 - Google, Nokia and New Entrant Positioning in Automotive Infotainment - Lanctot – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/dniNxa - Navigation Heuristic Evaluation: Telmap5 – Schreiner – Automotive Consumer Insights http://bit.ly/95NCoW - Automotive DMB Digital Radio: Marketing Strategies an Increasing Priority – Blight – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/dtRE5C - Automotive Telematics Services: Shifts in Pricing and Monetization Expected – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/bwdwcW - Connected Vehicle and Vehicle Device Connectivity System Database by Feature, Region, and Price 2010 – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/d0aLhq - Connected Vehicle Telematics: Car Maker Profiles – Canali – Aumotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/deumcd -# Traffic Data Quality Will Determine #Telematics Winners - Lanctot - blog - Strategy Analytics

At a time when radio struggles with its role as the red-headed stepchild of the broadcast industry it was refreshing to discover a group of enthusiastic radio marketing executives discussing what the organizers of the event described as the arrival of the fourth golden age of radio. The discussion was occurring at the RAIN (Radio and Internet Newsletter) Summit in connection with the Radio Advertising Bureau event in Washington, DC., this week. Kurt Hanson, CEO of AccuRadio.com and Publisher of RAIN, defined the vision of the fourth golden age of radio as that period following the first (1935-55), second (1960-75 = Top 10, emergence of FM), and third (1976-99, listener fatigue, consolidation). Hanson pointed to Internet radio as a transformative force creating new value for radio advertising and content. For these executives, the hand-wringing regarding the impact (read: threat) of Internet radio is past, replaced by an intensifying embrace of a technology that is transforming the industry. Broadcasters left the event with the newfound conviction that Internet radio was a valuable tool for enhancing their influence and reinforcing their ties to listeners – and the mobile phone and the automobile are increasingly important venues via which to pursue that opportunity. For these broadcasters, the so-called fourth golden age of radio is characterized by the emergence of Internet radio and five aspects defined by the event organizer as: 1.                   Personalization and control manifested in pause, fast forward and thumbs up/thumbs down functionality; 2.                   Variety in the form of thousands of available stations targeted at all forms of regional and genre/sub-genre-based interest; 3.                   Lower spot load – ie. fewer ads – but better targeting of ads – and the corollary of more detailed and accurate metrics; 4.                   Ubiquity – Internet radio is accessible via televisions, mobile phones, standalone radios and, soon, automobiles; 5.                   Global/National reach vs. local – after all, listeners can be anywhere. Internet radio use currently stands at a 3.8% share of radio listening, according to data from Ando Media referenced at the event, representing the equivalent share of radio listening captured by FM radio in 1971. Arbitron data shows the percentage of online radio listening (% who have listened to online radio in the past week) as steady at 17% between 2009 and 2010 (equivalent to 43M listeners). Pandora, the most successful online music provider to date, showed an increase in # of listeners per average quarter hour (AQH) from 257K in January to 366K in July. At the same time the total AQH for the top 20 online radio sources was 780K and the total online radio listening figure was 1.3M. The numbers indicate that Pandora has a 28% share of all online radio listening, according to Hanson, and an overall radio listening market share of 1% - equivalent to 1% of listening in every market in the U.S. The trend, according to Pandora’s own data, continues upward with the number of hours of listening on Pandora growing from 200M in January to 275M in July. And the majority of the increase is coming from mobile users, who now account for more than half of those listening hours. Pandora’s overwhelming brand recognition in the space was reflected both in the listener data and in research presented by Coleman Insights which found Pandora, Slacker and iHeartRadio as the only brands with any significant unaided recognition. The larger message from the Coleman study was that Pandora may have strong recognition but does not yet have a dominant image in the minds of consumers – ie. the market is still fairly fragmented and an open opportunity. The implications for the automotive and mobile device markets come through loud and clear here and in Strategy Analytics’ own data where interest in and usage of Internet radio on mobile devices is on the rise. Not surprisingly, auto makers are seeking to capitalize including front runners BMW, Ford and Mercedes-Benz. Only a year ago, Internet radio in the car was greeted with skepticism and derision for a variety of reasons including: 1.                   Cost – As unlimited data plans begin to disappear, the perception is that Internet radio will become prohibitively expensive to mobile users; 2.                   Network capacity – Cell towers have limited ability to support an unlimited number of data users, which is what Internet radio users are; 3.                   User experience – Capacity and signal issues have created a listening environment carried by drop outs and lost signals. All of these objections have either been resolved or will soon be resolved: 1.                   Cost – Do the math. Taking AT&T’s tiered plan as an example, the $30 for 2.4GB likely represents MUCH more than enough time and bandwidth for all but the most out-of-control mobile listener. Cost is NOT an issue. 2.                   Network capacity – Carriers are adding smaller cells and Wi-Fi access points in major metro areas to alleviate the capacity issues. AT&T complaints have almost (I say “almost.”) completely stopped. 3.                   User experience – There will always be challenges in delivering music consistently, but the creators of these solutions are providing for caching and buffering at the receiving end while broadcasters are filtering content to lower-bandwidth alternatives at the broadcast end. The dominant mode of delivery for Internet radio in the car will be the smartphone in the short term. And with a growing population of smartphones in the marketplace, the opportunity is large and growing. But the concept of an embedded telematics infotainment system with access to Internet radio is no longer anathema in the industry. In fact, the Mercedes-Benz MyComand concept of such an embedded solution shown a year ago at Telematics Munich now looks not only doable but downright prescient. Some bumps in the road remain.  Music service-type Internet radio, such as Pandora and Slacker, will have a user experience advantage over true Internet radio platforms such as RadioTime and vTuner. Because of their personalized nature, Pandora and Slacker will have the advantage of leveraging buffering and caching to preserve the listening experience where cell connections are lost. (Slacker, of course, is primarily a caching-based service and, by definition, won’t lose connection mid-song.) Nevertheless, with carrier network improvements and the transition to LTE technology, the radio aggregators such as RadioTime and vTuner may gain the upperhand by facilitating access to a wider range of content with more creative means to manage and discover new music. RadioTime, for example, has deployed a song search feature able to locate a song being played on any of its participating radio stations. These aggregators also have the advantage of making podcasts and other non-radio content available while also integrating terrestrial sources such as analog AM/FM and HD Radio sources using location data. Competing Radio Platforms It is no coincidence that Sirius XM is making its content available via the Internet. Sirius XM clearly recognizes the competitive threat posed by Internet radio. To respond to the content searching and sorting functions of some Internet radio services and the ability to store or buffer some music, however temporarily, Sirius XM can be expected to bring content management enhancements to its Satellite Radio 2.0 platform due late in 2011. (Sirius XM has raised its subscriber guidance, forecasting 20.1M U.S. subscribers by the end of 2011.) Sirius XM already offers smartphone app functionality already widely deployed by Internet and terrestrial broadcasters. (In fact, much of the talk at RAB revolved around leveraging these apps for advertising and promotional engagement with the listener.) But with the enhancements in satellite radio requiring further hardware investments by OEMs, Sirius XM will have to continue to subsidize its OEM customers. HD Radio will continue to see widening deployment via automotive OEMs, especially since the required hardware investment is substantially less than for satellite radio. According to a recent Twice magazine report HD Radio is built into 5% of new cars sold in the U.S. reflecting deployment by 15 brands on 86 vehicle lines and as standard equipment on 36 car models. There are 2,085 converted stations and 1,226 multicast channels. More than  3M HD systems of all types have been shipped, according to iBiquity Digital, and efforts are underway to see HD Radio technology integrated in handsets. Conclusions The two challenges for OEMs will be to monetize the Internet radio opportunity and to solve the user interface challenge of accessing multiple radio sources safely in a vehicle. From a monetization standpoint, the goal will be to enable users to purchase songs and to enable access to premium content. In addition, the integration of Internet radio into embedded systems will make a powerful and positive contribution to the perceived value of telematics infotainment systems. Smartphone integration continues to advance and a variety of approaches will be tried, no single one of which is likely to dominate. As an example, BMW’s Mini Connect integration reproduces the smartphone display in the instrument cluster, while the solution in the 1 Series lets the driver use the smartphone’s interface. The latter approach is used by Mercedes in its Smart integration product. The bottom line is that Internet radio in the car is much closer to a reality than it appeared just 12 months ago, and it will likely contribute positively to convincing consumers to pay for telematics systems. http://bit.ly/c0OLhT - Consumer Implications for Smartphone-Vehicle Connectivity  - Chris Schreiner - Automotive Consumer Insights http://bit.ly/c1nvTq - Consumer Interest High for Connected Safety and Security Services - Chris Schreiner - Automotive Consumer Insights http://bit.ly/aGJHDj - Smartphone Market Evolution and the Automotive Opportunity Implications -Fitzgerald - Automotive Multimedia & Communications http://bit.ly/bD5RzL - Automotive DMB Digital Radio: Marketing Strategies an Increasing Priority - Blight - Automotive Multimedia & Communications

When IBM had the personal computer industry in a headlock, the company was able to freeze customers’ plans to purchase competing PCs by releasing fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) in the marketplace. It achieved this goal by announcing its own plans for new products 6-12 months in advance. Sirius XM used its earnings call earlier this month for the same purpose, announcing plans for Satellite Radio 2.0 for Q4 2011. The difference, of course, is that Sirius XM does not control the market for broadcast radio content. In fact, the company is facing competitive pressures from both terrestrial and Internet-based sources. Further diminishing the Satellite Radio 2.0 gambit, is the declining portion of Sirius XM’s revenue and unit volume coming from retail, aftermarket devices. (According to estimates from the Consumer Electronics Association, satellite radio sales to dealers fell to $64M in 2009, with declines forecasted through 2013.) Sirius XM executives stated in the Q2 earnings call plans for the launch of the XM 5 satellite in October and the launch of Sirius 6 in Q4 2011. Also due to arrive in Q4 2011 is the newly touted Satellite Radio 2.0. Sirius XM execs said that SR 2.0 will offer consumers greater capacity and more functionality – both enhancements are intended to stimulate average revenue per user (ARPU). These same execs noted that no additional satellite launches will occur for several years, setting the stage for improved cashflow and profitability. In addition to the satellite and service launches late next year, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) limitations on Sirius XM subscriptions will end in August 2011. All of these indicators are positive for Sirius XM except for the fact that competition has intensified. With the FCC limitations removed, Sirius XM will have a much broader scope of subscription options given the 150+ range of stations to choose from. SR 2.0 promises even more ARPU upside with added channel content and, as Sirius XM execs clearly indicated in their earnings call, a wider use of data for telematics and other applications. It is interesting to hear Sirius XM getting excited about telematics as a potential ARPU contributor, and it is an indication that the company is moving in the right direction and recognizes the shortcomings of the existing service. It is also, no doubt, a response to competitive pressures from HD Radio and Internet radio. The question is whether or not this awakening at Sirius XM is coming too late to matter. HD Radio technology is proliferating as more OEMs adopt the technology and more radio stations join the burgeoning ranks of participating broadcasters. HD Radio is appealing since it operates over the same FM frequencies, though requiring some additional hardware, and it is free. At the same time, more and more OEMs are lining up music service solutions such as Pandora along with Internet radio - via smartphone connectivity in the short-term and embedded solutions in the long run. The success of Pandora is a testament to that company’s ability to deliver a solution that is able to integrate seamlessly with automotive systems. Competitor Slacker’s content-caching music service is not less compelling, but OEMs have not found integration to be nearly as simple. Still, the tide that is lifting Pandora's boat will likely benefit other music services and Internet radio providers, such as ClearChannel's IHeartRadio. The timing and manner of Sirius XM's announcement of Satellite Radio 2.0 suggests that Sirius XM is attempting to prevent OEM defections to HD Radio, music service solutions or Internet radio. OEMs are in the process of making decisions today that will impact vehicle platforms four and five years hence. Sirius XM executives refused to explain exactly what SR 2.0 will be. But given the short launch window, it will no doubt arrive in the retail aftermarket first. The company is currently briefing OEMs regarding its confidential plans. Sirius XM has already lost momentum in the automotive market. Car makers (and aftermarket system makers) have shifted toward offering satellite radio as an option rather than as a standard feature. And both Sirius XM and its OEM customers are using subscription conversion data to determine which cars should and should not be offered with the service. This means that even though Sirius XM has been able to show subscriber gains in its past two quarters, rapid growth is a thing of the past and pales by comparison to the subscriber numbers of a Pandora or Slacker. On the earnings call Sirius XM execs said that availability of satellite radio technology in cars was at approximately 60% of car models with a paid subscription conversion rate of 47%. The company currently claims more than 19.5M subscribers and anticipates somewhat more than 20M by the end of the year. OEMs say that if it weren’t for their multi-year agreements with Sirius XM they might have walked away from the relationship a long time ago. (Several OEMs are also shareholders in Sirius XM.) This sour sentiment does not bode well for Sirius XM moving away from the subsidy model it maintains in the automotive market. This subsidy model also means that the cost of acquiring new subscribers – given the decline of retail satellite radio sales – will continue to rise as the balance between retail and OEM sales continues to shift toward subsidized OEM subs. Further clouding the otherwise rosy long-term outlook for Sirius XM is the mandated switchover to XM. OEMs currently offering Sirius satellite radio service have been told they will have to switch to XM by 2016. The honeymoon for Sirius XM is clearly over. The question now is whether SR 2.0 can save the store. Satellite Radio 2.0 There are three areas where SR 2.0 could help Sirius XM hold onto its existing subscribers while attracting new subscribers. Here are Strategy Analytics’ thoughts on what SR 2.0 will look like: Audio – Sirius XM faces its biggest audio challenge from Internet radio and music services generally and Pandora in particular. All of these services are paid and Internet radio has suffered a blow from the onset of tiered data plans limiting the use of such services. Nevertheless, OEMs have embraced Internet radio because of the powerful consumer demand and awareness – several times the user base of satellite radio and widely and easily accessed on multiple platforms without any additional hardware. The only solution Sirius XM can offer is more or better-targeted audio channels. Ironically, the more channels Sirius XM adds the more difficult it is to use. Expect Sirius XM to update its content search and save capabilities to better replicate an Internet radio experience. Sirius XM can also be expected to enhance its iPhone and iPod integration with song-tagging not unlike HD Radio’s capabilities. Expect Sirius XM to add additional capabilities, along the lines of what iBiquity Digital has been showing in HD Radio demos for the past 2-3 years. Enhancements are likely to include more artist, track, album information; album art; song duration; maybe even reviews or other metadata from suppliers such as Gracenote or Rovi. Traffic – For some reason Sirius’ traffic data services are not comparable to offerings from direct competitors such as ClearChannel’s RDS-TMC. Side-by-side comparisons conducted by this analyst of both XM NavTraffic and the Sirius traffic service have found them to be lacking in comparison to both PND and embedded solutions. The only good news for Sirius is that RDS-TMC is only offered standard by half a dozen car makers. Still, with the proliferation of HD Radio technology, Sirius will soon be up against TPEG traffic data content, putting it further behind the eight ball. Sirius must bring its traffic data services up to a competitive grade. Strangely, the company does not even use the same flow and incident sourcing between its data (Traffic.com) and broadcast traffic services (Westwood One). Expect Sirius XM to do something about the shortcomings in its traffic reporting. OEMs are definitely making comparisons between HD Radio and satellite radio traffic services and making critical long-term decisions. Expect major traffic data improvements in SR 2.0 including the implementation of a standard traffic database system – such as Gewi’s TIC 3 – and/or TPEG traffic information services. Only time will tell if the changes will be enough or will occur soon enough to preserve strong OEM relationships. Even more ominous for Sirius XM is the fact that more and more OEMs are building the cost of traffic into the cost of their vehicles. The $3.99/month traffic subscription for Sirius XM traffic data will not survive this process of commoditization - especially if the data quality is not competitive. Data – Sirius XM’s Travel Link service, offered by Ford, is an impressive voice-driven offering of content such as gas pricing, ski conditions, news, weather, and sports. Expect Sirius XM to bring this offering up to speed with a greater variety of content delivered with improved graphics. The competition here comes mainly in the form of smartphone solutions, so the challenge to compete is steep. Can Sirius XM breathe life into its retail aftermarket position with SR 2.0? Can the company preserve its standing with OEMs, which are more concerned with reducing costs and complexity? For now, Sirius XM is on a path to continue to build its subscriber base, enhance its service and reduce its operating expenses. But the future of the company hinges on whether car makers will continue to tune in beyond 2016. Further insight: http://tinyurl.com/2bz9zq6 - Google, Nokia and New Entrant Positioning in Automotive Infotainment - Lanctot – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/dniNxa - Navigation Heuristic Evaluation: Telmap5 – Schreiner – Automotive Consumer Insights http://bit.ly/95NCoW - Automotive DMB Digital Radio: Marketing Strategies an Increasing Priority – Blight – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/dtRE5C - Automotive Telematics Services: Shifts in Pricing and Monetization Expected – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/bwdwcW - Connected Vehicle and Vehicle Device Connectivity System Database by Feature, Region, and Price 2010 – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Service http://bit.ly/d0aLhq - Connected Vehicle Telematics: Car Maker Profiles – Canali – Aumotive Multimedia and Communications Service

The gold standard for telematics success is daily relevance. One of the greatest challenges for companies introducing telematics systems and solutions is to bring daily relevance to their offerings. Human beings are creatures of habit, which means that driving directions are normally not required daily, gas pricing and parking choices are predetermined, and weather and news are available for free over the radio. Movie times, skiing conditions and restaurant reviews are nice to haves. But they are available from other sources – most notably mobile phones – and are an occasional not a daily information requirement. And we all hope we never have to use either automatic crash notification or roadside assistance. Traffic data, on the other hand, is something that is relevant five days a week to a substantial portion of the working public. Companies that get traffic data right have a huge competitive advantage not only in providing traffic data, but also for providing a wide range of data feeds and services. In fact, the very infrastructure required for delivering traffic data – storage and processing facilities and servers and, in some cases, broadcasting capability - is a suitable platform for providing other telematics services. For this reason, traffic data providers Inrix, ITIS Holdings, TomTom and Navteq also serve as content and service aggregators. (It is also one of the reasons for TeleCommunications Systems’ acquisition of Networks in Motion and why TeleNav has a content and services platform.) The opportunity to provide additional telematics services is the brass ring for which traffic data providers are reaching. It is for this reason these companies are seeking to bundle traffic data offerings with traffic-influenced routing, developing mobile apps for smartphones and connected navigation systems, and other initiatives focused on moving up the value chain – ultimately leading to sponsored content, reviews and location-aware advertising and promotion. The daily relevance of traffic data is a powerful elixir for delivering additional location-aware added-value services, including advertising. This is why Google, TeleNav, TCS, Nokia Navteq, RIM and TomTom are moving quickly to introduce or enhance their probe-based (handset GPS) traffic flow solutions to develop their telematics business. The winner(s) to emerge from this marketing scrum will be the company or companies with the highest quality traffic data. Traffic data quality, in turn, is determined by a handful of critical factors including data sources, integration, and delivery. (The quality and nature of the user interface is important as well, but is the responsibility of the device or service designer/manufacturer.) The determining factors within each of these areas are essential to understand: Sources: There are a handful of key sources of traffic data and they include commercial fleet (ie. taxi cabs, trucks, etc. and other types of probes such as GPS handsets, PNDs, etc.), regional departments of transport, embedded and roadside sensors, and incident or journalistic data. A handful of companies – principally TomTom, ITIS Holdings and AirSage - are translating cell tower signaling data for flow data analysis. This technology is currently deployed by both TomTom and ITIS in parts of Europe. ITIS licenses its technology to partners in Australia, Ireland, Russia, South Africa and Singapore. A North American solution has yet to be delivered. TomTom delivers its cellular flow data in HD Traffic for its connected devices in Europe, which still stands as one of the best, if not THE best, live traffic solution in the world. (It is worth noting that HD Traffic received low scores in BMW's QKZ evaluation.) Traffic flow data from these sources is valuable for many use cases and applications including showing traffic on a map and traffic-influenced routing. Journalistic data complements the flow data by providing context about the cause, location and scope of the traffic problem. This is particularly useful to receive as a traffic incident alert before leaving on a journey or to provide context when actually stuck in a traffic jam, as the driver generally can’t safely read a description about an incident while driving.Incident data come from public sources such as emergency responders, department of transportation traffic cameras, or public or private spotters that may be on the ground or observing traffic conditions from some form of aircraft. Much of incident data is public information – some of it freely available to the public - and most is freely available to commercial traffic information providers. There are some private sources, however, including radio and TV stations with their own spotters, cameras or sensors and these include companies such as ITIS Holdings, SmartRoute, Traffic.com and ClearChannel. ClearChannel and ITIS Holdings have emerged as the dominant suppliers of incident data in the U.S. and U.K., respectively. The two companies have the widest market coverage and the broadest roster of clients. Of course, operating a traffic incident collection and reporter network on a national basis (much less internationally) can be extremely expensive and unprofitable, and companies such as Westwood One and Traffic.com operate under the pressure of that expense. Not surprisingly, ClearChannel and ITIS are also distinguished in applying the so-called QKZ traffic quality assessment standards to their solutions. QKZ, which is the name of the index used to evaluate traffic data, is the standard applied by BMW in evaluating different traffic solutions. BMW recently selected MILE Traffic and Travel (ITIS, Infoblu, Mediamobil consortium) to provide a pan-European traffic solution. BMW is already partnered with ClearChannel in the U.S. for their RDS-TMC solution. It is important to note those elements of the traffic data picture that are global in nature vs. local and to make a distinction between flow data and incident data. There are thousands of local sources of incident data and there are local aggregators of that data, but incident data is fundamentally a regional phenomenon. Flow data, in contrast, is ruled by systems that can be applied globally. There are five providers of flow data currently operating across borders and these are ITIS, Inrix, Nokia Navteq, TomTom and TrafficCast. ITIS is unique in using a licensing model. TomTom has yet to find a customer in the automotive or mobile device market for its flow data. TrafficCast has a handful of customers. And Inrix and Navteq currently compete for contracts in North America and Europe. Car makers are most interested in identifying global solutions, while navigation device makers and mobile application developers are content with regional solutions.  Companies such as Waze, Aha Mobile and TrafficTalk are attempting to open up a new channel of user-reported incident data. But the industry is still seeking to determine how to evaluate the quality of these ad hoc sources and integrate their inputs. Integration: The process of data integration produces a picture of traffic flow including not only real-time traffic flow or speeds but also a predictive model based on both historical and real-time data sources. This information is critical for determining accurate travel and arrival times as well as routing or re-routing.The five leading flow data companies distinguish themselves by their processes for integrating and manipulating traffic data, vetting sources and interpreting the different inputs. A virtual duopoly exists between Inrix and Navteq in the U.S. The European market is rapidly evolving from regional traffic providers to pan-European aggregators. TomTom has developed its proprietary HD traffic in a handful of countries, but is only deployed with its own smartphone and connected PND solutions. Navteq has a solution in place with Garmin, but has limited European coverage. Inrix and MILE Traffic and Travel appear to be emerging as powerful challengers in Europe. Delivery: The last link in the chain is delivery and this is the area experiencing the greatest degree of technological change. The most widespread platform for communicating traffic information is radio, but there are multiple radio-based platforms for traffic information delivery. Analog radio is the most dominant and familiar source of traffic data reports and the most widely available traffic data broadcast network in this medium is RDS-TMC. RDS-TMC is widely criticized for the limited amount of information it is capable of broadcasting in a metropolitan area and perceived delays (latency) in delivering the latest information to the embedded or portable navigation system in the car. Emerging digital radio technology enables a richer stream of traffic-related content and maintains the critical local elements. Digital radio is also a superior platform for delivering other forms of content. RDS-TMC is being replaced by TPEG technology. TPEG allows for a wider range of content, a larger volume of information and can be distributed over HD, DAB or cellular networks as it is XML-based. TPEG also encompasses arterial road coverage. Handset-based solutions are promising, though hampered by the smaller screens and challenging in-vehicle user experience associated with mobile phones. While technologies such as Nokia’s Terminal Mode offer the prospect of delivering handset traffic images to in-vehicle displays these solutions will take a few years to reach the market. Many OEMs, however, are in product development now with solutions that use handsets (or are fully integrating embedded GSM/GPRS modules in the vehicle) for sending traffic data and other telematics information to/from the vehicle. Product development is moving briskly in the handset/smartphone space and innovative solutions such as TrafficTalk and Visteon's TrafficCamJam are in the offing. But the companies creating these applications will likely require expensive voice interfaces. Public authorities will likely not accept handset-based applications in cars that require a touch screen interface while the vehicle is in motion. Part of the power of these smartphone-based applications, though, lies in the fact that they are location-aware and sharing location data even as they are reporting traffic conditions. As a result, these devices remain a wildcard in the evolution of traffic data. Sirius XM’s traffic data service in North America, based as it is on a single national stream of broadcast data to a vehicle’s navigation system, is fatally flawed. Based on this correspondent’s own experience with the Sirius feed in Mercedes and the ClearChannel feed in BMW, the lag introduced by the sequential transmission of multiple-market’s worth of traffic information down a single pipeline is the source of Sirius’ downfall. It is no coincidence that BMW offers Sirius' audio content but eschews its traffic offering. And some industry observers believe OEMs are dropping Sirius/XM traffic data services from their roadmaps for MY13 and beyond in favor of connected services over GPRS/GSM. In Sirius XM’s most recent earnings call two weeks ago the company touted its planned introduction in Q4 2011 of Satellite Radio 2.0. Presumably the company will have a fix for the timely delivery of traffic data. Conclusion: The biggest pipeline to the car of all is the embedded telecommunications module. With new embedded solutions set to launch from multiple car makers in multiple geographies over the next 2-3 years, drivers can expect to see vast improvements in traffic information quality. This is at least one reason for optimism regarding the future uptake of telematics services overall. With the emergence of both digital radio technologies worldwide and the proliferation of embedded telematics systems, the expectation is that the companies that will dominate traffic will be those with the highest quality data. What distinguishes these companies today are their processes for validating data quality. If the data is sound the daily relevance will follow as will subscribers. Further insight: http://tinyurl.com/2bz9zq6 - Google, Nokia and New Entrant Positioning in Automotive Infotainment - Lanctot – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Servicehttp://bit.ly/dniNxa - Navigation Heuristic Evaluation: Telmap5 – Schreiner – Automotive Consumer Insightshttp://bit.ly/95NCoW - Automotive DMB Digital Radio: Marketing Strategies an Increasing Priority – Blight – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Servicehttp://bit.ly/dtRE5C - Automotive Telematics Services: Shifts in Pricing and Monetization Expected – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Servicehttp://bit.ly/bwdwcW - Connected Vehicle and Vehicle Device Connectivity System Database by Feature, Region, and Price 2010 – Canali – Automotive Multimedia and Communications Servicehttp://bit.ly/d0aLhq - Connected Vehicle Telematics: Car Maker Profiles – Canali – Aumotive Multimedia and Communications Service

The recent Strategy Analytics report Automotive DMB Digital Radio: Marketing Strategies an Increasing Priority Jul-10 provides an assessment of the automotive digital radio market outlook for Europe, and identifies some key issues that need to be addressed if automotive opportunities are to be realised. Digital radio is set to become a yet another feature within automotive multimedia and infotainment `mix'.  This will increasingly introduce product complexity for automotive companies as they plan for embedded infotainment systems and vehicle-device interfaced product solutions.  Despite the challenges of planning for the ‘mix’, there will be major opportunities to leverage and differentiate automotive multimedia solutions from device based products, and a device based multimedia experience. Top of the list of differentiating features that should be a key focus in automotive planning are HMI and safety of use, screens and displays, and cockpit attractiveness, quality of sound, and integration with other automotive centric features, such as air conditioning, heating and ventilation. Smartphones and portable devices, such as iPods, are also changing the multimedia competitive landscape, in terms of consumer expectations of the user interface and the user experience.  As the gap continues to widen between a consumer’s multimedia experience on a device versus his/her experience in the vehicle, there is a increasing need for automotive companies to get to grips with HMI issues and plan products for entry level, mainstream and high end vehicles. Some automotive companies can be applauded for their focus on the massive HMI challenge in an increasingly dynamic multimedia market, for example,- MyFord Touch Provides Mixed Bag of Changes to Speech Interface Jul-10  But many other automotive companies will be left in poor competitive positions unless they embrace the HMI planning complexities more fully. Strategy Analytics will be presenting a keynote paper at the IQPC international conference Automotive Cockpit HMI (20 - 22 September, 2010, Steigenberger Graf Zeppelin, Stuttgart), and invites you to meet with our automotive analyst. The Strategy Analytics paper “Future HMI Trends and Challenges: The Automotive Cockpit of the Future” will cover:

• Assessing the latest technology challenges and trends
• Consumer expectations in different market segments
• Outlook on the development of HMI design

Jo Blight

The transition to digital radio has been slow, but no one should have any doubt about its inevitability. One of the greatest challenges in ushering digital radio into the market, aside from differing standards (in Europe) and analog radio shut off issues, is the user interface. Digital radio opens up a new world of location-relevant information including both data and content all of which means opportunity for system designers to compete and differentiate. Digital radio is forcing designers to change the way they think about broadcast content and how consumers will access and “discover” new sources and types of content – from traffic and weather information to podcasts and enhancements such as slideshow functionality and conditional access. While the fundamentals of frequencies (in the U.S.) and station names (Europe) remain unchanged, the ability to search for specific content or location information is transforming the radio experience. Digital radio is ideally suited to the emerging cloud-based content and service delivery world confronting the automotive industry. This convergence of radio and the cloud is manifested most obviously in so-called hybrid radio (promoted by RadioDNS www.radiodns.org) which brings together broadcast signals with online content enhancements such as album art. Of course, hybrid radio is still just an idea today, although broadcasters and content providers are building the necessary databases to support the technology. (Strategy Analytics data shows FM radio technology forecasted to be available on 60% of handsets sold in the U.S. by 2014.) Meanwhile, electronic programming guides – such as RadioTime – have already made search and location relevance a reality. The unspoken facilitating technology is the smartphone. The growing popularity of smartphones and the corresponding rise of automotive smartphone connectivity and application stores have facilitated the introduction of Internet radio and music services into cars. The integration of this access with on-board systems will add yet another layer of added value for the consumer. Even more significant is the emergence of interactivity and conditional access to radio content. The proliferation of music services is turning music consumption into a thumbs-up/thumbs-down proposition allowing consumers to customize their experience..Among the music services enabling this customized experience are Pandora (streaming), Slacker (cached), Mog, Rhapsody and Thumbplay. But unlike digital radio, none of these services are completely free for a commercial-free experience. Digital radio stands alone as a ubiquitous, free-over-the-air offering increasingly built into OEM and aftermarket solutions. Of greatest importance, from a user interface perspective, is the fact that the OEM can control, leverage or drive the digital radio experience, unlike Internet radio, which is connectivity based. The march toward digital radio was manifest at last week’s WorldDMB conference in the form of software defined radios capable of supporting DAB, DAB+, DMB and HD Radio systems. Companies showing such solutions included ST Microelectronics, Maxim and EtherWaves. Frontier Silicon laid claim to market leadership in digital radio implementations in its comments at the event. Frontier made a distinction between higher cost software defined radio solutions that provide for flexibility and upgradability and hardware radios that are lower cost and less flexible, while offering a third path of hybrid radio (not to be confused with the RadioDNS technology) offering an optimal mix of lower cost and flexibility. Panasonic Electronic Devices also showed multiple-format modules at the conference. The overall tenor of the WorldDMB gathering was oriented toward overcoming transition issues for the implementation of digital radio throughout Europe. Of course, the industry can only progress as quickly as the systems can reach the market. Hardware and software companies are still scrambling to bring all of the capabilities of digital radio into being. This is most clear from the progress of iBiquity Digital in the U.S., key sponsor of HD Radio technology. This week the company reported that 18% of aftermarket systems sold in the U.S. this year came with HD Radio. The company also reports steady progress in recruiting OEMs to implement HD Radio, which is increasingly standard. But none of the implementations currently on the market are able to take advantage of the complete range of available digital radio applications. So, the content is available in the form of hundreds of broadcasters and the receivers are in place in line-fit and aftermarket solutions, but complete technology deployment is still in progress at the silicon level. Nevertheless, governmental authorities are aggressively pursuing awareness campaigns and contests intended to drive digital radio adoption. The numbers are still modest, typically in the hundreds of thousands of units, but at least these representatives recognize that digital radio will require active efforts to stimulate consumer interest. At the same time, new capabilities will mean new business models and new user interfaces. One of the essential reasons for the introduction of digital radio is to open up congested airwaves to more broadcasters and more broadcast content. This will stimulate additional advertising and revenue opportunities and confusion. But these are early days for digital radio. The inevitability of digital radio was clear at the WorldDMB conference where country rollout status reports were shared including some hard digital switchover dates, such as the U.K.’s 2015 deadline. (France was notable by its absence at the event - due to logistical issues. But France’s mandate for DMB leaves no room for doubt regarding its transition to digital radio.) Whether or not digital radio replaces analog radio over the long run, the automotive industry is in the forefront of the movement and stands to reap the greatest rewards. It remains to be seen which OEMs or suppliers will lead the way but the race is on to deliver a new level of value to consumers. Further insight: http://bit.ly/8Z8HZh - Automotive Connectivity: Beyond Bluetooth Solutions - Automtive Multimedia Communications - Mark Fitzgerald http://bit.ly/b5W8ZS - Nokia and RIM Push Into Automotive as 'Apps' Competition Mounts - Automotive Multimedia & Communications - Joanne Blight http://bit.ly/blAHUC - Handset Sales by Type: Smartphone, Feature Phone and Basic Phone - Wireless Device Strategies - Alex Spektor http://bit.ly/9jANwu - Global Smartphone Sales Forecast by Country Western Europe and North America - Wireless Smartphone Strategies - Thomas Kang

The cardiac kids at Sirius XM are at it again. After surviving years of multi-million dollar losses, a high-wire, company-saving merger with XM, and the downturn in auto sales, the company reported a strong first quarter in May. With auto sales recovering at the beginning of the year, Sirius was able to report revenue and subscriber increases and later revised its estimate of subscriber additions for the year to approximately 750,000. But now the ultimate test, the switch to XM, is on. The subscriber increase, which pushed the total close to 19M, reflected a net gain of 171,441 vs. a decline of 404,422 in the year-ago period. The numbers looked good, but they obscured the challenges arising from an increasingly competitive radio-listening landscape, the increasing inclination of car makers to make satellite radio an option rather than standard equipment and the impending termination of the Sirius half of the combined Sirius XM satellite network. All of these negatives were either swept from the table by the positive earnings report or were not mentioned at all on the earnings conference call. (In the interest of full disclosure allow me to acknowledge that I am a subscriber to both XM and Sirius services and enjoy the content, as do the members of my family. Each member of my family has his or her favorite stations and it is nice to know that those stations are available anywhere in the U.S.) Strategy Analytics consumer surveys in the U.S. show satellite radio lagging well behind traditional AM/FM as a must have in the car. While AM/FM is described as a must have by 88% of respondents, satellite radio is regarded as a must have by only 14%. Internet radio lags even further behind at 5% - but that is changing. Interestingly, U.K. survey respondents show a higher level of interest in digital radio (DAB or DMB), with 22% describing it as a must have in the car. The lack of enthusiasm for satellite radio reflected in the survey results is just one of several negative indicators. Another such indicator is the fact that the aftermarket for satellite radio products is almost non-existent. Just as car makers have been inclined to make satellite radio optional, makers of aftermarket head units have also tended to introduce systems that are “satellite ready” vs. offering one or the other system built in. And the market for portable devices enabled for satellite radio has been limited thus far. Sirius XM is line extending into the iPhone app marketplace, but here, again, the company will run up against music services and Internet radio. The music services leverage more liberal licensing models for storing and managing music and Internet radio will benefit from the increasing proliferation of programming guides such as Stitcher or RadioTime to access interesting and relevant local content including podcasts. Of course, these services also benefit greatly from having a two-way link. Millions of consumers are turning to music services and Internet radio. Car and handset makers are developing ways to integrate these music services (ie. Slacker, Pandora) and Internet radio (ie. IHeartRadio) into their platforms – while carriers are scrambling to introduce tiered data programs to shield themselves from the burgeoning traffic. While satellite radio is increasingly optional either from the factory or in the aftermarket, HD Radio is increasingly standard equipment on cars. But the real killer for Sirius is unfolding in recent meetings with OEMs. Sirius has told its clients, which include BMW, Mercedes, Chrysler, Ford, Kia, Land Rover, Jaguar and many others, that they must switch to XM by 2016. For the car makers that helped make Sirius XM what it is today, there are no special subsidies, no silver bullet hardware fix or retrofit. There is simply a notification that they must switch from Sirius to XM by 2016. The bottom line, of course, is that the two satellite systems – one based on a satellite in geosynchronous orbit and one on satellites in geostationary orbits and using similar frequencies – require different receivers and antennas. In spite of a legal requirement in the merger agreement that the companies find a solution for interoperability, nothing beyond a combination of the two incompatible receivers and antennas was ever introduced in the market. The quiet announcement of the switch to XM, though long anticipated, is surprising for a number of reasons: 1. The companies must have known this day would come when they originally merged, yet it was never acknowledged until recently that one of the satellite networks would have to be sacrificed. 2. Given the fact that subscriber growth has reached a plateau it is clear that Sirius XM can ill afford to lose half its subscribers. And winning new subscribers in the current competitive environment will be a challenge especially as auto sales – the source of the majority of new subscribers – continue to move sideways, failing to provide the engine satellite radio so desperately needs. 3. Car makers – including several premium marks - are incensed that Sirius is making this unilateral change with little or nothing in the way of guidelines or even a public information campaign strategy. Sirius has made no public statement yet and company representatives have failed to respond to repeated requests for comment. 4. There is also some irony in the fact that Sirius spent many years denegrating XM's solution but in the end has chosen to consolidate on the XM platform. Long term, the good news is that the company selected to preserve XM, the more robust of the two solutions. XM was first to market with data solutions for weather (XM Weather in August 2003), traffic (XM NavTraffic on 2005 Acura RL and XM NavWeather on the Acura TL. Sirius made up some ground with the launch of Travel Link by Ford, but XM’s platform, including its terrestrial repeater network, is better suited to providing a wider range of content and services to drivers. If Sirius can keep car makers on board with a vision of low-cost, nationwide content delivery – and the higher ARPU implied therein – it may emerge profitably and competitively vis-à-vis smartphone and digital radio-based solutions. But the company is changing gears just as these new solutions are gaining momentum and at a time when car makers have little patience for another high-wire act. Further Insight: CES 2010: The Arrival of Converged Automotive Multimedia Products - John Canali -  http://bit.ly/9gq4yo Automotive Bluetooth: Profile Strategy Key to Infotainment Success - Mark Fitzgerald - http://bit.ly/9qEXbU Internet Radio: Ready for Prime Time - Mark Fitzgerald - http://bit.ly/ZBXzd Internet Radio to Vie with Music Services for Automotive Dominance - Lanctot - blog - http://bit.ly/9xm6qR WorldDMB Car Manufacturers Workshop - Munich - July 7 - Arrange meeting with Strategy Analytics - http://bit.ly/aUcqgm