Change is coming to the automotive industry via U.S. government entities that suddenly have the cash, the power and the public mandate to significantly influence the direction of vehicle design and surface transportation. With multi-billion dollar investments in two of the one-time Big Three automakers, the Federal government suddenly has unprecedented leverage over the industry along with a clearly defined agenda for enhancing safety and reducing vehicle emissions. Just a few years ago industry participants were inclined to eye roll and shake their heads at the plans of connected vehicle (VII, V2X) and HEV/EV advocates, preferring to stick with the prevailing traditional disconnected ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle mentality. In the words of an old American advertising slogan: When something works you stick with it. What a difference a few years, an economic downturn and a massive embarrassing recall can make! Consumers are shifting to 4- and 6- cylinder vehicles. And even without incentives, consumers are turning to HEVs most notably Toyota’s Prius. What were once seen as pie in the sky visions of connected electric vehicles have rapidly become remarkably realistic opportunities – even if substantial EV sales volumes are still somewhat out on the horizon (SA EV/HEV forecast - http://bit.ly/9s3lid). Hundreds of billions of dollars have been invested by federal and local governments – as well as overseas governments – to incent EV development and sales. (Strategy Analytics has a spreadsheet of more than 300 EV/HEV legislative initiatives worldwide -  http://bit.ly/aRdhK8.) At the same time, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has stirred to life stimulated by both a distracted driving crisis (from growing fatalities due to talking and texting drivers) and the Toyota unintended acceleration debacle. NHTSA, which was quite recently focused on fusion safety system technology in cars – making use of multiple sensor inputs to assist drivers in maintaining lanes, monitoring blind spots and avoiding crashes – has firmly shifted to an emphasis primarily on avoiding and surviving crashes. The agency is also seeking data recorder mandates among other initiatives. The crash avoidance portion of NHTSA’s campaign has V2X written all over it. While monitoring blind spots and maintaining a lane are important vehicle applications, true crash avoidance technology can only be achieved with vehicle connectivity to other vehicles nearby and not so nearby as well as to infrastructure using DSRC technology. In fact, at the latest ITS meeting the organization made clear that it is compiling a database of 5.9MHz DSRC providers who will be able to meet the antipated demand for line fit and aftermarket modules. DSRC was heavily touted and endorsed at the latest ITS meeting in Houston. The ITS is on the verge of releasing its roadmaps for V2X implementation. It is worth noting that the organization is expending significant energy on providing for the use of mobile devices and aftermarket boxes to enable connectivity. (Coincidentally, the European Union has announced its endorsement of similar connected vehicle objectives and implementation plans – http://bit.ly/bFaIUm.) The time lines may still be conservative and technical issues remain (see ITS conference concluding presentation http://bit.ly/bYio4k), but the mandate and the mission is increasingly clear on both the emissions reduction and the safety fronts: In the future, connectivity will be king. Still, despite the increased interest in safety among legislators, consumers and the Federal government, safety remains a tough sell with consumers. (SA – Consumers Interested in Safety, but not at Current Prices - http://bit.ly/a56WTM) This is why the increased influence of the government is so important. It will require government mandates to change vehicle designs and force consumer acceptance. Now, more than ever, the Feds have the influence and industry participation they require to bring significant change to pass. This type of mandate applies to EVs as well. The U.S. is unique in the world in its governmental inability to force through the kind of fuel taxes that could change behavior. Lacking this lever, Federal and local governments have turned to incentives to encourage consumers – and car makers – to bring electric vehicles to market. (This and the CAFÉ standards regime - http://bit.ly/cBwp2r - U.S. #CAFE Standards Give Impetus to Wide Range of #Green Technologies.) Here, again, the influence of the government along with growing consumer interest in both HEVs and EVs are approaching a transformative critical mass. Industry observers have questioned the wisdom of fostering EV technology when the current state of technology is as limited as it is. But it is only with this kind of government support that the obstacles of charging infrastructure, battery capacity and price can be overcome. Ray Lood, the director of NHTSA, removed any doubt about the government’s passion for change in the automotive industry when he described his own anti-distracted driving efforts at the recent ITS event in Houston as “a rampage” (http://tinyurl.com/24vzrka). A rampage indeed! Change is coming, probably faster than previously conceived possible. It is coming with government impetus and supervision and it is coming whether the industry likes it or not. Additional Insight: http://bit.ly/bbhqGj - Voice HMI: Connected Car Opportunities and UX Best Practices - Chris Schreiner http://bit.ly/ajzQay - Future Promise of V2X Wireless Comms – Chris Webber http://bit.ly/9qf1Mh - EV/HEV Technologies Supply and Fitment Database – Kevin Mak http://bit.ly/9esI9W - Advanced Driver Assistance Systems: Supply and Fitment Database – Kevin Mak

Denso privately showed an Internet connectivity platform called Blue Harmony at the Detroit Auto Show this week. Despite its name which suggests an emphasis on Bluetooth, Blue Harmony is actually built around a 3G cellular connection enhanced with Wi-Fi for internal and external communication and Bluetooth. It is designed as a center stack solution with full-size, touch-screen display for navigation and other functions. The announcement shows Denso offering its own all-purpose alternative to similar solutions from Continental and Visteon. Blue Harmony's introduction reflects the ongoing efforts being made by Tier One suppliers to provide for smartphone integration and application downloads. Blue Harmony is designed to function with a variety of hardware and software configurations. The positioning of the system is clearly targeted at higher end applications as opposed to simple Bluetooth connectivity offerings such as Ford's Sync. Denso is being specific about the broad range of functionality enabled by the Blue Harmony system, but is being deliberately ambiguous about specific component partners and HMI, leaving these choices to potential customers. The stated objective of Blue Harmony is to enable connected consumer applications including access to music, news and traffic information while enabling safe implementation of social networking applications such as Facebook and Twitter. Flexibility and customizability are critical elements of the system including the ability to download applications capable of enabling services such as Pandora Internet radio. OEMs will be able to target different consumer segments with customized user interfaces or different application portfolios. Blue Harmony will also deploy a wide range of voice-enabled applications such as news readers or messaging. And in addition to Wi-Fi technology, the system also incorporates vehicle-to-vehicle communication capability.

Audi's announcement of an optional Google Earth-enabled navigation system for the 2011 A8 due in mid-2010 has raised a question for competitors: To 3G or NOT to 3G? Having just put a messy transition from analog to digital technology in the rearview mirror, the automotive industry is facing yet another key point of inflection between 2.5G, 3G and 4G wireless technologies for embedded telematics solutions. Several automakers have already taken some preliminary decisions leading down the 2.5G path for their future telematics platforms focusing on safety and security. The belief is that additional functionality can be handled via the customer’s smartphone – and that the primary function of automotive telematics remains automatic crash notification and, perhaps, navigation. Some OEMs are targeting the wider spectrum of location-based applications with their related revenue opportunities enabled by 3G technology. And QNX and Alcatel-Lucent have partnered to prepare the market for a 4G LTE future. It is worth noting that QNX is a strategic partner with Audi as is Elektrobit, both of whom are developing cloud-based, location-based solutions for cars. Big decisions await the industry in 2010. Car makers will want to avoid the cost of a 3G module. They will also want to avoid the cost of data plans, hoping to tag along on the customer's data plan via a physical or Bluetooth connection to the smartphone. This strategy will work in the short term, but Audi is one OEM pointing the way to a 3G future with its announcement of a Google Earth-enabled navigation system for the 2011 A8. Initially built around a GPRS/EDGE platform, the car maker has announced its intention to bring UMTS on board. This decision will put Audi into the telematics forefront where it can be expected to be joined by Mercedesand BMW. The key to success will be leveraging location-based technology to deliver a superior value proposition to the driver. With 3G, the full spectrum of content and services and related business models will be at the company's disposal and not dependent on the capabilities of the customer's smartphone or a flaky Bluetooth connection, though Bluetooth will have a role to play. Ford will have the sexiest solutions at next week's CES event in Vegas, but Audi has served notice that it is stepping into the telematics ring and will be a contender. By this time in 2010, the luxury segment may have a new technology leader.

QNX Software Systems has more or less quietly taken control of the luxury car market for embedded infotainment operating system software and, increasingly, application-level software in the head unit as well. The month-long, nationwide tour coordinated with Alcatel-Lucent to show off the now-famous LTE-enabled Toyota Prius has sent a clear message that QNX has tomorrow's automotive infotainment solutions ready today. The LTE implementation shows QNX at the peak of its game. In fact, QNX and Microsoft virtually pushed VxWorks out of the automotive operating system market and the two are virtually unchallenged aside from M-itron, which is dominant among Asian OEMs. Could QNX be poised for further gains or is the company's position more vulnerable than it seems? The demonstration of the LTE car, most recently featured at the Rock Financial Showplace in Novi, Mich., reveals an in-dash system with two front-seat screens along with back-of-headrest screens for rearseat entertainment. As a concept demonstration, the vehicle of course violates existing limitations on frontseat, in-dash video, but the point is that virtually any kind of audio, video or game content is available via any screen each of which can be personalized to the passenger in that position. The basic options displayed in the demos are Games, Communications, Internet,  Entertainment, Vehicle and Navigation. Of course, these six choices could be whatever the developer prefers and users are able to customize the sub-directories as they would radio stations. For example, within Internet the options include: Chumby, Browser, Fanbase, Home Control, Internet Video, Kabillion, Weather, YouTube, QStore, Pandora and Local Search. A similar rich mix of options is available under vehicle where QNX has realized the vision of the virtual user manual with vehicle schematics tied to on-board sensors. And, of course, QNX has enabled several on-board application stores. There are several implications to the QNX design. First of all, the system is a cloud-ready solution. A vehicle equipped with the QNX software is location aware, capable of tapping into the Internet for its information needs or the information needs of the driver and/or connecting with the driver's phone to access contact or scheduling information. Secondly, the QNX system shows how comprehensive connectivity almost completely obviates the need for a call-center-type telematics service provider. The driver can access almost anything he or she needs via voice commands and the vehicle, with appropriate software enhancement, is capable of anticipating or responding to most requirements. Lastly, the LTE demonstration is a warning to auto makers that emerging network deployments may be closer than they appear in their rearview mirror. Verizon says that by 2013 its LTE network deployment will be equivalent to its 2009 3G deployment - ie. nearly ubiquitous. Those modules may be expensive, but they're coming fast and those prices will fall correspondingly. Enabling this level of functionality is QNX's so-called abstraction layer of software for Alarms, Audio, SOS, Phone, GPS, Net and CAN. This abstraction layer acts as an interface between the embedded systems and the application layer. The applications "subscribe" to the objects in the abstraction layer which receive their updates from the embedded software. The only bad news for QNX is that this LTE solution is ill-suited for the volume segment of the automotive market. While QNX has taken charge of the high end of the market, the high end of the market is characterized by low margins and low volumes. Microsoft, another contender for luxury segment business, has made a name for its self in the volume segment of the market where both margins and volumes are superior. The question facing QNX is whether it can leverage its high-end success with mass market solutions. Given the fact that it is already well positioned with relationships with key players such as Hyundai and Volkswagen prospects are positive. But with a swarm of small cars hitting the market it is likely that Microsoft is better positioned to benefit the most from emerging opportunities. In spite of the elegance of the LTE showcase, QNX is an industry shark that needs to find a way to swim like a minnows. If there is a segment(s) on the rise it is A/B.

Mercedes-Benz launches its Mbrace 3G-based telematics system today as standard equipment on all models except the GLK, the E-Coupe, the SLK and C-Class cars. It is an option on those models. The first six months of service are free and $280 a year after that. Keeping the concierge service costs $20 a month. The new system sets a new standard for smartphone integration, upgradability, voice recognition, dealer-customer integration, car-phone-PC integration, and customer support via three call centers one each for roadside assistance, concierge and emergency calls. Mercedes has been quoted as saying that it plans to add an application store and is also looking at enabling access to concierge and other services via the customer's phone, independent of the car. The bottom-line is the system is intended to be future-proof. The announcement marks the beginning of a transition by Mercedes away from current TeleAid telematics service provider ATX toward Hughes Telematics. The Hughes Telematics vision of service provision ultimately includes satellite and Wi-Fi connectivity, but the Mercedes system launches with 3G cellular connectivity. (Hughes' plan also calls for Website management of vehicle status and diagnostics. It is not clear how much of this capability, if any, will be available at launch.) The significant aspects of this industry changing announcement includes: -> VoiceBox natural language understanding voice engine. - Mercedes is the second OEM, after Lexus, to implement this technology which allows users to make naturally spoken requests for information and assistance either for controlling the car or for location information. The voice recognizer can speed access to information regarding weather or location data, for example, by eliminating the need to connect with an operator, but the operator is still available if the voice recognition fails. -> Three call centers for processing different types of calls. - Most telematics systems use a single call center for processing all types of calls. The Hughes system behind Mbrace has separate call centers for ACN or emergency calls, roadside assistance, and concierge services. -> Upgrade and updatability - Applications can be added wirelessly or at the dealer. -> Connectivity to customer phone - Vehicle doors can be locked or unlocked remotely via smartphone. The vehicle can be located in a crowded partking lot via smartphone app. If the vehicle is stolen, the user can be notified via text message. Additional smartphone functions will be available and an "app store" is in the works. Bluetooth connectivity is also provided for. -> Access to off-board information - Routes and POIs can be sent from Google to the car. (The Hughes vision ultimately calls for Website management of vehicle status and content ranging from audio and video files to service status and remote diagnostics. Mercedes will either be enabling these capabilities at launch or shortly thereafter.) -> Dealer connect - The system will connect the nearest Mercedes dealer if there is a problem. -> Automotic collision notification - Activated in the event of an airbag deployment or by a press of the SOS button, a Mercedes operator will get on the line, notify 911 and stay on the line until help arrives using vehicle coordinates. -> Real-time weather and traffic reports - Also provides real-time assistance in the event of a disaster. An operator will help locate shelter or alert family members. -> Concierge service - Access to a representative who will help make dinner reservations, order flowers, buy tickets to the opera, or book a flight. -> Access to services via phone - Mercedes may eventually allow access to services via phone independently of the car. Link to Wired News story: http://www.wired.com/autopia/2009/11/mercedes-mbrace-telematics/ Related Strategy Analytics reports: Telematics as a Downloadable App Arrives - http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=4973 App Stores Coming to the Automotive Market - http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=4802 27M Users of eCall and Infotainment Services by 2015 - http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=4428 Economic Climate Demands Sharper Connected Vehicle Business Models - http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=4425