Threat to Charging Infrastructures – Emergence of New Super-Efficient, Conventionally-Powered Compact Models

The global banking crisis of 2008/9 resulted in many governments transferring debt from the banking sector to the private sector. This has resulted in widespread cuts in public spending, including investment plans for charging infrastructures for electric vehicles, especially in Europe.  As a result of the ongoing financial crisis, consumer demand for pure electric vehicles in certain European countries could potentially be dampened by the lack of charging points.

• The Republic of Ireland is one example of a recent slow-down in implementation.  According to the government plan, some 1,500 charging points and 40 fast-chargers were to be in place by the end of 2011 – but by October 2012, some 860 charging points (around 57 percent of the plan) and 30 fast-chargers were installed.  As one of the European governments under pressure to limit public spending, it is unlikely that further funds would be made available to complete the plan, especially when electric vehicle sales have not met expectations – at just 192 units since 2009.  The cost to Electric Ireland in installing the current network has estimated to be around €3.9m (US$5m).
• Better Place has responded to the lack of demand for electric vehicles by curtailing its infrastructure operations in countries such as Australia and the US and concentrate efforts in Denmark and Israel.
• The only recent announcement to build new infrastructure has been from the UK government.  However, such an investment is limited to covering 75 percent of the total cost of construction by private vehicle purchasers at their homes, local governments for use by apartment residents and at railway stations and government facilities. 
• Very few European countries have announced a charging infrastructure plan.  Major public infrastructure investments are limited to just France and Germany.

The resulting recession from the crisis has also made European consumers even more aware of fuel efficiency in vehicle purchases, but it has also lowered tax revenues among European governments.

• As a means of meeting greenhouse gas emission targets, European governments encourage consumers to purchase vehicles that emit less CO2, by way of purchasing subsidies and taxes (called bonus-malus in France for example) or from a varying annual road tax system (as in the UK for example).
• Other incentives, such as free entry to congestion charge zones, are also offered to low CO2 emitting vehicles, to limit congestion and air pollution in city centers.
• As European consumers try to save money by running vehicles that emit less CO2, then the level of purchase subsidies increase and the receipts from annual road taxes decrease.  Fuel sales are also decreasing in some countries, as drivers seek more efficient vehicles.  For example, in the UK, fuel stations sold 37.67 billion liters of fuel in 2007 but only 34.16 billion liters in 2012.
• As European governments try to limit public spending, then the offering of purchase subsidies and annual road tax discounts are changed to models emitting even less CO2.

Consumers’ desires for more efficient vehicles have yet to benefit EV sales in any large-scale way.  A lack of charging infrastructure and relatively higher costs over conventionally-powered models of the same segment has limited the market.  In addition, a new generation of super-efficient compact models are now entering the European market, which offer consumers many of the benefits of an EV without the drawbacks of high purchasing cost, patchy recharge infrastructure and limited range.

• Since August 2012, the French bonus-malus system now offers a €400 bonus (US$516) to vehicles emitting less than 90 g/km.
• The London Congestion Charge Zone offers free entry for vehicles emitting less than 100 g/km.  Future plans to amend the system are being discussed, which include the lowering of the exemption limit to 80 g/km, adding a group of models for congestion charging that are currently entering the Zone for free.
• The current UK annual road tax exempts vehicles emitting less than 100 g/km.  It is also likely that the tax exemption level will also be lowered to 80 g/km, as receipts from the annual road tax decrease further as British consumers turn to more efficient models that are taxed less.
• While plug-in hybrids, such as the Opel Ampera (Chevrolet Volt) and Toyota Prius PHEV emit less CO2 (27 and 49 g/km respectively), they are costly vehicles that essentially use two powertrains.
• Models benefiting from a change in government policy would be those sub-compact or compact hatchbacks that can be modified by adding stop-start systems, adjusting compact diesel engines with reduced torque and variable vane turbochargers, using manual transmissions with longer gearing (but could also use re-programmed automated transmissions, as on the Peugeot 208), modifying the accelerator pedal mapping, reducing weight, use low rolling resistance tires and better aerodynamic features, such as grille shutters, extended tailgate spoilers and wheel deflectors.
• Included amongst these models are the new Toyota mini-hybrids, with the Hybrid Synergy Drive powertrain modified to suit the smaller model.
• But such modifications must not be at the expense of comfort and convenience features, such as power windows and air conditioning, nor mandated safety features, such as airbags.
• Retail prices for these models are still at an affordable level, of between US$15,000 and US$20,000 (with sales taxes), and compare well against used cars that are more costly to run, as fuel economy of the efficient models reaches 60-67 mpg (US).
• Examples include the Toyota Yaris Hybrid (79 g/km, T-Sprint 85 g/km), the Renault Clio dCi 90 Stop & Start ECO (83 g/km), the Hyundai i20 1.1 CRDi Blue (84 g/km), the Kia Rio 1 1.1 CRDi EcoDynamics (85 g/km), the Peugeot 208 Access+ 1.4 e-HDi Stop and Start EGC 70 (87 g/km), the Ford Fiesta Style ECOnetic 1.6 TDCi Start Stop (87 g/km), the Citroen C3 1.4 e-HDi (87 g/km), the Ford Focus ECOnetic 1.6 TDCi (88 g/km), the Opel Corsa 1.3 CDTi ecoFLEX (88 g/km) and the Skoda Fabia 1.2 TDI CR Greenline II (89 g/km).

The Strategy Analytics System Demand Forecast, to be updated later in April already includes this increased demand for stop-start systems and for full hybrid systems among Toyota’s compact segments.  But should the European Sovereign Debt Crisis end, likely to be some time in 2014, this growing demand is unlikely to fall away – it is more likely to accelerate deployment of stop-start and other fuel savings features in other regions and in other model segments in greater volumes.  The OEM Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Strategies Report will be updated in September 2013.

This analysis was conducted following recent updates to the EV/HEV Technologies Supply & Fitment Database and the Hybrid Technologies Legislation/Support Database.

On November 6th, Qualcomm briefed the automotive industry on its progress with the HALO inductive charging system for electric vehicles. This blog reports on this briefing, in particular the forthcoming trial of the HALO system in London, and updates on a previous Strategy Analytics post, Qualcomm Inductive Charging – A Possible Solution To Range Anxiety in Electric Vehicles. 

Demonstrations of the HALO system has shown how the system can bring about wider deployment.

On March 19th, Qualcomm presented its inductive charging technology for electric vehicles.  It had recently acquired the company HaloIPT, an offshoot of the University of Auckland, New Zealand, that had developed the technology.

The induction system involves the fitment of a receiving pad connected to a control unit and the vehicle’s battery pack.  On the infrastructure side, a charging pad is fitted to the road surface, inside a parking bay.  Both pads contain wiring coils, with magnetic fields transferring the electrical energy from the infrastructure to the vehicle.

The charging system is capable of full operation even where there is misalignment between the induction pads.  To park accurately to align with the charging pad is very difficult in practice – so user experience issues have been taken into consideration.  There is even tolerance in the vertical alignment, should the EV be an SUV model, should there be additional occupants in the EV or should the charging pad needs to be hidden from view under the tarmac surface, such as for street cleaning purposes.  This is due to the Double-D and Double-D Quadrature coils designed to enable energy transfer over a wider area.

Foreign Object Detection systems are currently being developed to prevent charging taking place where children or animals are present in the recharging area.  Despite the presence of magnetic fields and radio waves, Qualcomm is convinced that inductive charging is safe – thanks to its earlier experience with RF technologies in the mobile handset area.  It claims it is much safer than the use of conductive charging, with the threat of electric shock, and the presence of cables that people can trip over.

Qualcomm claim high charging efficiencies of 90 percent – another area where detractors claimed inductive charging has a weakness.  It earlier tested its inductive charging system on a Citroen C1 EVIE and the Rolls-Royce 102EX concepts.  Both a 3 kW single-phase and 7 kW three-phase system were developed.  On the Lola Drayson B12/69EV racing car, a fast-charging 20 kW three-phase system has also been developed.  Transport for London and other UK-based partners are evaluating the system from 2012 onwards.

At present, the technology is at the pre-commercial stage and is awaiting interest from OEMs and Qualcomm’s Tier 1 and Tier 2 automotive customers to bring about a platform design, which would generate economies of scale to make the hardware affordable for mass market deployment.  The first deployment of inductive charging technology could come as early as 2015.

So far, business models mooted include the free or subsidized charging: Offered by retail corporations, perhaps time limited; Insurance corporations, to monitor vehicle movements to prevent theft; or Combined with toll road usage.

Dynamic charging is also a long-term possibility, where the vehicle is charged as it is being driven, thanks to the misalignment tolerance developed by Qualcomm – although this will depend on how fast charging takes place in order to replace the energy consumed to drive the vehicle.

Strategy Analytics believes that such a charging system has the potential to become a success in serving the plug-in vehicle market.  However, the technology is still dependant on the ability to persuade supporting infrastructure to be developed alongside Qualcomm’s attempt to have the system deployed by OEMs.  The danger is that as conductive charging systems are now being standardized (e.g. ChaDeMo, SAE J1772), Qualcomm’s inductive charging system could be left behind.  Even if OEMs do adopt the system, they may also have to fit a conductive charging system as a back-up to it – which adds unnecessary cost.

To help advance Qualcomm’s case in the short term would be to promote its charging system as a retro-fitment to the fleet market, whereby volume deployment can be generated quickly.  That way, OEMs would have an earlier indication of how successful such a charging system could be.

Otherwise, history may repeat itself when players having the right technology fail to succeed, by not getting it to market ahead of their rivals – Qualcomm has to work fast to promote its system, get infrastructure players involved  and develop a platform for OEM adoption before conductive technologies shut it out of the automotive market.

The North American International Auto Show was opened in Detroit on January 9th, 2012.  In comparison to earlier shows, Detroit revealed greater optimism in the automotive industry, following the crippling recession of 2008-2009.  LMC Automotive (formerly JD Power Automotive Forecasting) released its Q4 2011 sales forecast, showing US light vehicle sales rebounding for 2010 and 2011.  However, with the arrival of Volkswagen at Chattanooga, Tennessee, and the growth of Hyundai in the US, such as the Elantra winning the 2012 North American Car of the Year Award, the Detroit-based auto makers face stiffer competition to regain their market shares in their home markets. 

Compact Luxury – The New Battleground
While light truck sales have recovered, the North American market is seeing a particularly faster growth in compact models.  This will result in higher production volumes for them.  According to LMC Automotive, the C-Segment will see the largest unit increase in production from 2011 to 2018, followed by the D-Segment, while the A- and B-Segments will see fastest percentage rise.

• The Show’s top launches were the Cadillac ATS sedan, the Dodge Dart sedan and the Buick Encore compact crossover. 

Not only do the above models come from the compact segments, two of them come from luxury brands.  As many North American consumers downsize, in order to lower their fuel consumption, they still demand a high level of comfort and convenience in their future vehicle purchases – and with this, electronics demand in the North American market will continue to grow.

• The Cadillac ATS aims to compete against more successful German branded sedans, in particular the BMW 3-Series.

Fuel Economy
Growing demand for fuel economy will also result in the adoption of direct injected gasoline engines across the industry, as on the Buick Encore and the Cadillac ATS.  The Dodge Dart, however, will come equipped with the new Tigershark gasoline engine, developed with FIAT’s MultiAir exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) and variable valve timing (VVT) technology, although MultiAir is expected to be deployed on gasoline direct injected engines in the future. 

Ford has made major strides in electrifying the powertrain with the announcement of its roll-out of stop-start systems, starting with the 2013 Ford Fusion.  Ford’s common platforms will also enable its customers to opt for electric, hybrid and plug-in hybrid versions of various models, such as the Ford Focus compact and C-MAX compact minivan.  The GM eAssist mild hybrid system has already been offered on the 2012 Chevrolet Malibu, so perhaps the Buick Encore will follow suit? 

And there may be the possibility that Honda and Toyota may assemble hybrid models in the US – following the unveiling of the Acura NSX sports car equipped with new all-wheel drive hybrid powertrain technology, the auto maker announced that development and future production will occur at its Marysville, Ohio, facility.  The Acura ILX compact sedan also featured a hybrid concept.

• Should tensions in the Arabian Gulf escalate, then demand for hybrids will rise rapidly in the short term.  However, auto makers must bear in mind the revisions to the CAFE mandate, such as proposals by the Obama Administration to raise the level to 54.5 mpg (4.3 l/100 km) by 2025, a level that will certainly require more powertrains to be electrified in the long term, especially if the model segment mix remains unchanged.  An an example of making hybrids more affordable for wider consumer adoption is the Toyota Prius C compact ('Aqua' in Japan).

Comfort and Convenience
Despite their size, the new or recently-launched compact models have many features that would only be offered to larger segments.  Examples of these luxury features include passive keyless entry and start systems (PKE), dual-zone automatic HVAC (heating-ventilation-air conditioning) systems as standard, electric parking brakes (EPB), RLT (rain-light-tunnel) sensing for automated lights and windshield wipers and electrically-adjustable, heated and ventilated seats. 

• Examples of compact models with PKE that are assembled (or will be assembled) in North America include the Acura ILX, the Cadillac ATS, the Chevrolet Cruze, the Dodge Dart, the Hyundai Elantra and the Nissan Tiida.

Infotainment
Consumer demand for connectable systems for smartphones and the use of the Internet as a gateway to various features has led to the development of new all-encompassing, software-based infotainment systems.  The launches at Detroit are no exception, which will further lead to growing electronics demand for Bluetooth, voice control systems and HMI systems controlled by color displays and touch screens. 

• Examples of new infotainment systems include Cadillac CUE, Chrysler UConnect, Ford SYNC, Hyundai Blue Link and Toyota EnTune.  The Cadillac ATS and Dodge Dart are equipped with large color touch screens.

Safety
As side airbags become mandated in North America, the focus for safety applications in new models has been advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). 

Blind spot detection (BSD) and rear cross traffic assist (RCTA) have been key additions in the North American market, as consumers there tend to drive into perpendicular parking spaces and need assistance when backing out of them – the new Cadillac ATS and Dodge Dart will offer radar-based systems. 

Front windshield camera-based systems offer greater value-for-money, offering both distance warning and lane departure warning (LDWS) from the same module – the Cadillac ATS and the Buick Encore are likely to offer the same Magna-supplied system, as already being offered on some GM crossovers. 

Other features making a greater appearance in North America will be adaptive front-lighting systems (AFS) and high intensity discharge (HID) headlamps, as well as head-up displays, as on the Cadillac ATS.  In line with the Kids & Cars mandate, the HMI displays enable the Cadillac ATS and the Dodge Dart to play back park assist cameras.

Implications
According to the latest (January 2012) edition of Strategy Analytics’ Automotive Electronics System Demand Forecast (2009 to 2018), North American demand for the above applications will grow the fastest, mirroring the trends seen at the Detroit Show.

• Among the fastest growing applications were Collision Warning (+26.9 percent CAAGR by $M value), Passive Keyless Entry (+15.8 percent) and Engine Control (+14.9 percent).

Despite vehicle downsizing, demand for automotive electronics in the North American industry remains strong.

The Automotive Electronics System Demand Forecast 2009 to 2018 – January 2012 Update, can be downloaded at: http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=6985.

Updates on the following databases will be published in February / March 2012:
- ADAS Supply & Fitment
- Advanced Entry and Start System Supply and Fitment
- EV/HEV Technologies Supply & Fitment
- Hybrid Technologies Legislation/Support

According to an interview with Auto Express magazine in November 2011, Koji Sato, deputy chief engineer for product planning said: “We are working on a number of solutions to offer low CO2 emissions and these include a small hybrid.”

At present, the E-Segment hybrid model in the Lexus line-up is the newly-launched GS 450h, with a 3.5-liter V6 gasoline engine, capable of 0-100 km/h (62 mph) acceleration in 5.9 seconds.  However, most luxury sedans sold in the European market need to lower their carbon dioxide emissions in order to lower the annual road, company car and registration tax burden on their purchasers. 

• An example includes the BMW 520d.  It is priced competitively, at £30,030 in the UK (US$47,000), capable of a respectable 0-100 km/h time of 8.1 seconds.  Its combined cycle (EU) fuel economy is a segment leading 4.7 l/100 km (50.0 mpg) and emits 123 g/km of CO2 with the optional 8-speed automatic transmission.
• In comparison, the GS450h is more expensive at £44,615.00 in the UK (US$69,500), and can only achieve 7.7 l/100 km (30.5 mpg) and a higher 179 g/km of CO2 emissions.
• The result for a UK purchaser is that the annual road tax for the BMW 520d is £115 (US$180) less than for a Lexus GS 450h.  Savings for company car usage is even greater, at 18% Company Tax instead of 26% (based on Benefit-In-Kind rates) in the UK.

Lexus needs to make its GS sedan more competitive, not just in Europe but worldwide, as all consumers seek fuel efficiency to cope with the rising cost of fuel.  The brand has to broaden from its high performance-led strategy and embrace smaller, more economical and low emitting powertrain options for its hybrid models. 

• This has already begun with the launch of the smaller CT and HS hybrids, based on the powertrain platform of the Toyota Prius.

Lexus has indicated that it will not expand diesel powertrains to other models.

The brand has only one diesel model in its line-up, the IS 200d in Europe, equipped with the Toyota AD Series 2.2-liter turbocharged diesel engine.  Toyota does not assemble a larger diesel engine, except for the commercial vehicle segments.

It is likely that it will deploy a smaller capacity, four-cylinder gasoline engine to its hybrid platforms to meet the new strategy.

• The Lexus/Toyota hybrid platform is mostly integrated in its transmission modules, involving two electric motors, and can thus be mated to any combustion engine.
• The smallest gasoline engine in the Lexus line-up, in the IS 250, is too powerful to bring about the fuel economy needed by the new strategy.  This is a V6 2.5-liter unit producing 153 kW (208 bhp).
• A likely choice would be a modified 3ZR (four-cylinder 2.0-liter) engine from Toyota, to match the 135 kW (184 bhp) generated by the diesel engine in the BMW 520d. 
• Another candidate is the 1.8-liter Atkinson Cycle engine in the Toyota Prius, but uprated to match the performance required by the Lexus brand.
  The final decision on the new engine will be announced in the summer of 2012, before sales begin for the GS sedan in Europe.

Strategy Analytics has analyzed the decision to pursue an all-hybrid approach to the Lexus’ dilemma and believes the brand has taken the correct course of action.

The reasons are:

• Lexus is experienced in the development of hybrid powertrain technology and is well-known among consumers for it.  Sato said: “Lexus has a strong association with hybrid and we want to continue to develop this.”
• With current hybrid platforms in place, it would be more cost effective to develop less-powerful but more economical hybrids than to develop new diesel models virtually from scratch.
• By widening its hybrid offerings, it can also raise volume in hybrid powertrain production and bring about economies of scale across the hybrid line-up.
• Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission standards have been tightened in recent mandates, involving the adoption of new emission control strategies for large segment diesel models, such as the injection of AdBlue in the exhaust to meet Euro-6.  Although not as complicated as hybrid powertrains, the fear is that NOx controls would become too severe, and thus too costly, for Lexus to develop on its own.
• If Lexus is unable to develop new diesel powertrains, by sourcing from outside suppliers it would undermine the brand’s reputation and lose control of its powertrain design.
• The volumes required for the new strategy may be limited, given that Lexus is a luxury brand, and may not justify the additional investment needed to develop new diesel powertrains – Infiniti are to source from Mercedes-Benz and the Chrysler 300 features a V6 diesel engine supplied by VM Motori (a joint venture with FIAT and General Motors), but only in limited volumes.
• Away from Europe, the new strategy is relevant in North America where the CAFE fuel economy mandate has got tougher (for 2025) and following the lower uptake of diesel there.
• Diesel powertrains are increasingly being threatened by the development of new, more efficient gasoline powertrains, such as stratified combustion, which would negate any investment in new diesel powertrains.
• Hybrid powertrains are perceived to be more refined and relevant for the Lexus brand than diesel powertrains.
• Zero-emission drive, although for very short distances, can give Lexus the advantage should Chinese and European mandates appear to ban combustion-driven vehicles from city centers, as already seen for motorcycles in Beijing.

While competing luxury brands are already successful with diesel powertrains, this does not mean they should follow the Lexus strategy – It is a problem unique to Lexus, which requires a strategy that is unique to Lexus.

For further information relevant to diesel and hybrid powertrain strategies, please refer to the following products from Strategy Analytics:

EV/HEV Technologies Supply & Fitment Database
http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=6729

Hybrid Technologies Legislation/Support
http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=6726

Analog Semiconductor To Get Market Boost From HEV/EV Growth
http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=6623

Economies of Scale - Driving Affordability In Electric and Hybrid Vehicles
http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=6244

Auto Shanghai 2011: Domestic Car Makers Face Tougher Battle Ahead (commentary on the BMW 5-Series plug-in hybrid)
http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=6324

Automotive Gas Sensors: Emission Mandates Boost Demand
http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=5981

Hybrid and Electric Vehicles: OEM Strategies Reviewed
http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=5365

Sensors for Advanced Powertrains: Efficiency Solutions Drive Demand
http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=4435

HCCI: The Single Solution For Combating Both CO2 And NOx (commentary on stratified combustion technologies)
http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=3614

Diesel Challenges Hybrids in the US
http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=3368

BMW Sets The Pace in Engine Efficiency
http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=3250

Strategy Analytics previously reported (in the blog, Automotive Electronic Design Heads East) on the expansion in research and development to support the recovery in the automotive industry during 2010 and the growth in the emerging markets.  However, caution was advised because of growing uncertainty in 2011, such as the ending of government incentives, rising inflation in China and the threat of a currency crisis occurring in Europe.

While the demand continues to grow, albeit at a lower rate, in the emerging markets, Tier 1 vendors are turning more of their attention towards diversifying their customer base and towards growth application areas, such as ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) and electrified powertrains.

Tier 1 vendors are keen on diversifying their customer base, in order to increase revenue and to lower the risk of a future economic downturn. 

• The 2009 recession heavily affected North American operations, particularly the “Detroit Three” car makers and their suppliers. 
• In 2011, the earthquake has heavily affected the Japanese car makers and their suppliers.  By spreading business on a more global scale, the Tier 1 vendor is able to offset the loss of business in one region.  It could also be argued that Japanese suppliers would not have been disrupted as badly if they could transfer production capacity to operations outside of the affected areas in Japan.

Evidence of this trend, over the last six months, can be seen in the latest Strategy Analytics "Tier 1 Vendor Regional Design Center Database".

Examples of diversifying the customer base include the opening of new technical centers outside the home market and the expansion of existing ones:

• Bosch recently completed an expansion of its Kanagawa facility, where it develops braking systems, ECUs and gasoline fuel injection systems for Japanese customers. At Memanbetsu, it intends to expand its capabilities in developing stability controls systems, to be completed by 2013.
• Garmin opened a new technical center in Novi, Michigan, having made its OEM navigation business a strategic priority - to bring about global opportunities and to win new business, such as the uConnect system for Chrysler, the integrated navigation system on the new Aston Martin Virage and navigation software for Daimler.  With an initial 20 staff, it aims to build relations with the auto makers before expanding the facility.  The company is already a leading brand in PNDs (Portable Navigation Devices).
• Johnson Controls completed its expansion of its European headquarters in Burscheid, Germany, to raise its technical competence in order to increase its business from European customers.

Examples of growth application areas affecting technical centers include:

• Bosch, in its collaboration with the Reutlingen University of Applied Sciences and the University of Stuttgart, opened a new technical center to develop power electronics for electrified powertrains in return for students attaining their PhD degrees.
• Continental recently acquired the Ottobrunn technical center from Magna International, which develops automotive radars.  It also expanded its capability in transmission control systems by opening a new center in Nuremberg, where it has also hired another 240 staff from a US$100 million investment in expanding its existing facilities in the same city, some of whom will be developing systems for electrified powertrains.
• Valeo is planning to expand its facility in Tuam, Ireland, over the next three years.  The center specializes in developing software for camera-based ADAS systems, as in the optional 360Vue system fitted to the BMW 7-Series.

Meanwhile, new technical centers are continuing to open in the emerging markets.

• China has seen at least seven new centers being opened.  Bosch, Faurecia and Key Safety Systems have opened new facilities in Shanghai, while TRW is planning a larger replacement center to open in 2013.  UAES (a Bosch joint venture) has opened a new center in Chongqing, while Valeo’s Interior Controls division aims to double the staffing levels at its newly-transferred Shenzhen center.
• In India, Bosch is to add Diesel and Gasoline Systems Electronic Controls (DGS-EC) capability to its Bangalore center.  The expansion will be completed by 2013, culminating in the hiring of 800 additional staff.  Panasonic has recently opened a technical center in Gurgaon to develop energy management and infotainment systems to its Indian customers.
• Visteon has also expanded operations at its Guarulhos facility in São Paulo State, Brazil.

Strategy Analytics believes that with increasing competition, development activity will expand towards a more global scale, not just to service the needs of new customers in new markets but also to utilize a wider pool of talent and to speed up the rate of development in a race against rivals.  However, such investments will be costly and may require collaboration with other vendors, as is the case with OEMs in electrified powertrains.

Raw Material Threat To Semiconductors – Resulting In Disruption To Suppliers and OEMs

The overall impact of the earthquake and tsunami is yet to be played out for Japan.  What is clear is there is great uncertainty regarding the full impact on the automotive electronics supply chain and potential disruption for vehicle OEM production.  Damage to lower tier supplier facilities, particularly to the semiconductor and suppliers to the semiconductor industry, varies considerably and are causing knock-on effects that will affect upper tiers and OEMs on a wider scale.  Even undamaged facilities are being impacted by rolling electricity blackouts and some water shortages.

• Immediate damage to operations has lasted for two weeks since the disaster struck (by March 25th), mainly confined to the affected Tohoku region.  This is to ensure safety inspections are carried out following a major earthquake.  Limited operations have now resumed in many facilities.  Certain upper tier vendors have also transferred some production to areas unaffected by the disaster, such as in the west of Japan.
• Full production is likely to resume four weeks or one month after the disaster struck (by April 11th), although facilities that have suffered direct damage may be closed for longer, perhaps for another two or three months.  Aftershocks in Tohoku have prevented the reopening of several plants. 
• Even when production operations resume, the immediate challenge is the lack of a continuous supply of electricity, gas and water

• Fujitsu’s wafer fabs have been idled and will not proceed to full production capacity due to a lack of water and electricity, perhaps three or four weeks later.  The facilities that have restarted production in other companies have had to operate with limited lighting to conserve power.
• Furthermore, restrictions on fuel supply and damage to transport infrastructure will mean the difficulty of transporting components, systems and finished vehicles – although Mitsubishi Motors can assemble vehicles, it is having difficulty transporting them to customers because of damaged roads, resulting in a further shut down. 
• The plants that have received direct damage from the disaster include a Toyota plant supplying batteries for electric and hybrid vehicles, causing delay to launches of new hybrid models; and the Nissan engine assembly plant in Iwaki – possible alternative supplies for Japanese vehicle assembly plants could be sourced from Decherd, Tennessee, USA. 
• Among the worst affected Tier 1 vendors include Alpine and Yazaki, where one facility remains evacuated being located close to the Fukushima power station, and Hitachi Automotive. 

However, particular concerns in the potential lack of raw materials reaching the semiconductor vendors will have a longer effect on the automotive supply chain.

• Nearly all of the world’s supply of BT (bismaleimide triazine) resin, an epoxy resin used in the packaging of some chips, comes from two plants located in Fukushima and owned by Mitsubishi Gas Chemical.  These were directly damaged by the disaster and could take three months to repair and bring back into service.  Qualcomm, meanwhile, is using its buffer stock and is making adjustments to its near-term material mix as a result.
• Hitachi Chemical also supplies 50 percent of the world’s ACF (anisotropic conductive adhesive), used in panel module driver ICs and silicon wafers, according to the China Times.
• New supplies of copper-clad laminate, which is needed in the production of printed circuit boards, have been delayed following disruption in two chemical supply companies: Mitsubishi Gas Chemical and Hitachi Kasei Polymer.  These suppliers amount to 70 percent of the world’s supply of the material. 
• Silicon wafers supply has also been disrupted. Two major plants, Shin-Etsu Chemical's Shirakawa and MEMC Electronic Materials’ Utsunomiya facilities, have stopped production. These plants reportedly accounted for 25 per cent of the global supply of silicon wafers.

A raw material shortage will restrict the production of semiconductor components and delay assembly of systems, all the way to vehicle assembly, no matter where these are assembled. 

• For example, disruption in the supply of electronic components has delayed the assembly of diesel engines at PSA Peugeot Citroën in France.
• General Motors has also blamed the shortage of parts from Japan that led to the suspension of engine assembly operations at Tonawanda, New York, and of vehicle assembly operations at Shreveport, Louisiana. 
• GM has halted or slowed production of some model due to shortages of Mass Air Flow (MAF) sensors supplied by Hitachi Automotive.
• Overtime and other shifts have been cut at other assembly plants.  For example, the supply of some infotainment systems could bring disruption to some OEMs assembling outside of Japan.
• Should problems persist with the semiconductor supply chain, knock-on disruption to OEMs may worsen by early- or mid-April, when inventories run dry.
• Leading automotive semiconductor vendor Renesas has been badly affected and is issuing regular updates on progress on restarting its worst affected wafer fabs.

A further impact will be on Japanese OEMs that have a large proportion of exports sold in North America, especially with models assembled exclusively in Japan.

• The absence of Acura, Infiniti and Lexus-branded models will enable rivals to increase their market share in profitable luxury segments.
• Volume sales of compact models, such as the Honda Fit and Scion models, will also impact on sales turnover.  By the end of March, lost car production could amount to 450,000 units in Japan and 10,000 units overseas.

The vulnerability in the electronic supply chain may bring about the substitution of raw materials or the localization of raw material production to different regional markets (away to Europe and North America).  And flexibility may also be required from the lower tiers, to bring about contingency plans to their production capabilities.

The situation at suppliers can be expected to remain fluid for weeks to come with perhaps some acute shortages coming into sharper focus.  Although this is an exceptional event, vehicle OEMs and their tier suppliers are likely to review future supply policies in light of its impact on their business. 

Recent reports suggest that fuel economy mandates, such as Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE), may soon be implemented in more emerging markets, while the US is to impose tougher mandates for the long term.

• There have been conflicting reports on how China will set future fuel economy standards, but at present, minimum fuel economy standards are set for 16 different weight categories.  Plans for the next phase are to set tougher minimum levels for an averaged equivalent of 42.2 mpg (5.6 l/100 km) by 2015 (an 18 percent improvement), with reports suggesting an averaged equivalent of 52.3 mpg (4.5 l/100 km) by 2020.
• India will also be planning a fuel economy mandate on car makers, also with varying limits depending on the weight of the vehicle.  This will replace the current Vehicle Excise Duty that varies on the size and engine capacity of the vehicle.  The change marks a shift in government policy, to persuade car makers to use technology to raise efficiency than merely to force consumers to buy smaller vehicles.
• The US Department of Transportation and the Environmental Protection Agency are planning to raise US CAFE levels to 62 mpg by 2025, having recently implemented the 35.5 mpg level for 2012.  Consultations are under way for a possible, additional carbon dioxide (CO2) emission mandate.
• Japan and Korea have also implemented fuel economy mandates based on vehicle footprint, while Europe has corporate average mandates on CO2 emissions.

Should more fuel economy mandates be implemented in emerging markets, this will mean that vendors have to quickly prepare to offer fuel efficiency systems at a lower cost and in greater volumes than is presently been offered to mature markets.

• Stop-start is now being featured on almost every new model launched in Europe, since the summer of 2010, realizing greater volumes and cost reductions through economies of scale.  According to the Strategy Analytics System Demand Forecast (Q3 2010), penetration rates for these systems are rising rapidly.
• As a result of these and other improvements, OEMs, such as FIAT and Toyota, are likely to lead the way in meeting the first European CO2 target of 130 g/km by 2012.  This is according to a report on new cars manufactured in 2009 by the European Federation for Transport and Environment. 
• The recently-launched tandem starter-alternator from Denso promises a more compact solution over current belt-driven systems.  Denso’s new stop-start starter motor is also lighter than its predecessor.
• Johnson Controls and its subsidiary, VARTA, are offering a more cost effective Enhanced Flooded Battery (EFB) as well as their current Absorbent Glass Mat (AGM) battery for stop-start applications.
• In North America, the General Motors eAssist mild hybrid system was previewed on the Buick LaCrosse. It uses a smaller battery pack and electric motor to realize a 25 percent fuel saving over the conventional four-cylinder version.  As more unit sales come from China than from the US for GM, then eAssist may see wider deployment there.
• At the same time, more hybrid and electric concepts are being previewed.  Chinese domestic car makers, such as Jianghuai (JAC), have launched EV models on the back of the Chinese government’s US$15bn plan to promote EV technology.  As consumers have less disposal income to purchase vehicles in China than elsewhere, then developments in hybrid and electric vehicles will be more cost driven.  For further details, go to the Strategy Analytics report, China Aims High For Plug-In Electric Vehicles.

This analysis is drawn from the latest Strategy Analytics EV/HEV Technologies Supply & Fitment Database and Hybrid Technologies Legislation/Support database.

From the model launches in 2010, Passive Keyless Entry (PKE) systems are increasingly found in compact models outside Japan.

• Ford in Europe have launched many compact models, such as the Fiesta, with its "Key-Free System".  Ford in North America will follow suit with the MY 2011 Fiesta and MY 2012 Focus.
• The Nissan Juke is a compact SUV assembled in the UK - the Tekna trim level comes with the "Intelligent Key" system. 
• The Volkswagen Golf comes with "KESSY" - the system only activates on the front doors in order to lower cost. 

Evidence of this trend, over the past year, can be seen in the latest Strategy Analytics "Advanced Entry and Start System Supply and Fitment Database": http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=5942. This shows that certain OEM and supplier strategies aim to spread the availability of PKE, in the hope of raising volumes and lowering cost through economies of scale. And in assisting cost reductions, suppliers, both at system and at semiconductor level, aim to integrate components and functionality in order to reduce module size.

• TRW launched a module that can combine the RF functionality for a PKE system with that for a Tire Pressure Monitoring System (TPMS).  The latter system is mandated in many markets, thus the module can offer additional functionality at minimal cost.
• Atmel has integrated the immobilizer functions onto the same chip for a PKE system, as well as transceiver ICs integrating remote start and TPMS functions.
• Continental and Kathrein have developed an integrated antenna for all kinds of features, such as radio and navigation, as well as PKE.
• Maxim's MAX1441 touch sensor IC has 5 passive components instead of the 16 used by competitors. 

Furthermore, some RKE designs are using push button engine starts as a base for their PKE designs:

• The MY 2009 Audi A4 has a slot with which the RKE fob is pushed further in to start the engine.  Slots for PKE systems are used when the battery in the fob is depleted.
• Established brands with this kind of RKE system, and can also come with similar PKE systems, include BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Renault, Volvo and the Volkswagen Passat.  Some of these models may have a separate starter button for both RKE and PKE systems.

But despite this, almost all PKE systems are offered as an additional cost option to the consumer and because of its higher cost, few are deployed.

• According to Strategy Analytics, only 8.1 million units of PKE (equating a penetration rate of around 11 percent) are being deployed for 2010.

Forecast data can be found in the "Automotive Electronics System Demand Forecast 2008 to 2017: Q3 Update": http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=5815.   Strategy Analytics believes that further cost reductions are needed before PKE can see widespread deployment.

Recent Tier 1 design center openings in Asia suggest the market has moved eastwards to where car sales and production are growing.  Evidence of this trend, over the past year, can be seen in the latest Strategy Analytics "Tier 1 Vendor Regional Design Center Database": http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=5943.  Examples of new openings include:  China Bosch is to open a technical center and manufacturing facility in Changsha, Hunan, by 2012.Hangsheng-Intel joint venture will develop and supply of remote keyless entry systems from Shenzhen, Guangdong.Harman is to open two technical centers in Dandong, Liaoning and Suzhou, Jiangsu.

• Furthermore, new players in the global automotive industry have arrived, in the form of Delphi divestments: BWI (Beijing West Industries) - the former braking and suspension business; Nexteer - the former steering business was recently acquired by Pacific Century Motors.

India Denso is to open a technical center in December 2011 at its facility in Gurgaon, Haryana.  Japan Autoliv has recently expressed its intention for a possible acquisition in Japan.  Gentex opened its Kitakyushu technical center to offer electro-chromic mirrors and high beam assist systems to its Asian customers.

• Furthermore, Bosch has opened two software development centers in India (Bangalore and Coimbatore) and another in Vietnam by 2015.

Strategy Analytics has linked the increased R&D activity with growing car production in Asian markets: 

• According to JD Power, both sales and production volumes in China will increase dramatically - destined to become the world's largest market by volume. 
• India, a fellow emerging market, is also experiencing increased activity.  This includes: the launch of the market-specific Ford Figo and Toyota Etios models; the OEM expansions that have taken place with General Motors (engine plant in Talegaon) and Toyota (assembly plant in Bidadi) and those that have been planned by Ford, Kia and Maruti-Suzuki; as well as the Tier 1 vendors who will supply this expansion, such as new assembly plants from Autoliv and Brose.

Some renewed activity has also been observed in Japan and Korea.  Foreign Tier 1 vendors are making further in-roads at supplying Japanese OEMs, while Korean OEMs are keen to expand their market shares in Europe and North America.  As with Chinese OEMs, albeit on a larger scale, Korean OEMs like Hyundai-Kia are adding more electronic features.  The Strategy Analytics report "Chinese OEMs: Rapid Advance In Quality Bodes Well For Automotive Electronics", covers the rise in automotive electronic demand among Chinese OEMs: http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=5501, while worldwide electronics demand is covered by the "Automotive Electronics System Demand Forecast 2008 to 2017: Q3 Update": http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=5815.    While there is a rush to bring R&D capability in order to serve their customers' needs, Tier 1 vendors need to be aware that such growth will be more uncertain for 2011 - Incentives in certain markets will be curtailed and thus affect car production growth.  For example, the sales tax reduction for engine capacities below 1.6-liters will not continue in China beyond December 31, while the incentive for fuel efficient vehicles in Japan has already ended.    Strategy Analytics advises caution before vendors commit to further expansion.