I am now sat in San Antonio airport awaiting my flight back the the UK after the Freescale Technology Forum (FTF).  I haven't attended the event for the last couple of years, so it was interesting for me to compare the way Freescale presented itself this week to the Freescale that I remembered being presented in the past.  Here are a few of my personal thoughts and impressions:

1. A more rounded focus.  At previous FTFs that I haved attended, I have received the impression that Freescale was a processor company with a few other bits and pieces.  The overall impression this year was, to me, more rounded, with the analog side of Freescale's product portfolio getting a much more prominent billing.  The tie-up with Fuji for IGBTs was also mentioned multiple times across a number of briefings with different executives.  I saw a shift towards presenting solutions rather than products.
2. Renewed focus on market share.  Freescale was the #1 automotive semiconductor vendor.  Our semiconductor vendor market share report gave them a leading 10.3% share in calendar year 2007.  In 2011 that had fallen to 7.9% - behind not only Renesas, but also Infineon and ST.  In some of my previous discussions on this topic with Freescale, the conversation seemed to gravitate towards the reasons why: currency effects, the travails of large OEM customers, some gaps in product portfolio etc.  This time around there seemed a greater willingness to engage in what they were going to do about it.  There's a real hunger to be technology leaders, and a stated willingness to look at more deals like the Fuji one where they make sense.
3. Optimism about Japan.  I kept hearing, in many cases unbidden, a sense that Freescale was hoping for big things in Japan.  One stated reason was that they had received feedback from some customers that Renesas was in some senses now too big and too dominant - and there was thus an increased willingess to look beyond traditional partners.
4. SafeAssure everywhere.  Freescale's efforts in the area of functional safety and ISO 26262 were very prominent.  I was interested when I was corrected for referring to Safe Assure as a "brand" - with the Freescale staff member insisting it was instead a "program".  Semantics maybe - but he was very keen to get across his message that there was real substance behind the logo, that it was far more than marketing.

It's really too soon to gauge any impact that new CEO Gregg Lowe has had: he's only been in the job a matter of weeks.  However, the focus on market share came right from him, right from the top.  We'll see!

The North American International Auto Show was opened in Detroit on January 9th, 2012.  In comparison to earlier shows, Detroit revealed greater optimism in the automotive industry, following the crippling recession of 2008-2009.  LMC Automotive (formerly JD Power Automotive Forecasting) released its Q4 2011 sales forecast, showing US light vehicle sales rebounding for 2010 and 2011.  However, with the arrival of Volkswagen at Chattanooga, Tennessee, and the growth of Hyundai in the US, such as the Elantra winning the 2012 North American Car of the Year Award, the Detroit-based auto makers face stiffer competition to regain their market shares in their home markets. 

Compact Luxury – The New Battleground
While light truck sales have recovered, the North American market is seeing a particularly faster growth in compact models.  This will result in higher production volumes for them.  According to LMC Automotive, the C-Segment will see the largest unit increase in production from 2011 to 2018, followed by the D-Segment, while the A- and B-Segments will see fastest percentage rise.

• The Show’s top launches were the Cadillac ATS sedan, the Dodge Dart sedan and the Buick Encore compact crossover. 

Not only do the above models come from the compact segments, two of them come from luxury brands.  As many North American consumers downsize, in order to lower their fuel consumption, they still demand a high level of comfort and convenience in their future vehicle purchases – and with this, electronics demand in the North American market will continue to grow.

• The Cadillac ATS aims to compete against more successful German branded sedans, in particular the BMW 3-Series.

Fuel Economy
Growing demand for fuel economy will also result in the adoption of direct injected gasoline engines across the industry, as on the Buick Encore and the Cadillac ATS.  The Dodge Dart, however, will come equipped with the new Tigershark gasoline engine, developed with FIAT’s MultiAir exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) and variable valve timing (VVT) technology, although MultiAir is expected to be deployed on gasoline direct injected engines in the future. 

Ford has made major strides in electrifying the powertrain with the announcement of its roll-out of stop-start systems, starting with the 2013 Ford Fusion.  Ford’s common platforms will also enable its customers to opt for electric, hybrid and plug-in hybrid versions of various models, such as the Ford Focus compact and C-MAX compact minivan.  The GM eAssist mild hybrid system has already been offered on the 2012 Chevrolet Malibu, so perhaps the Buick Encore will follow suit? 

And there may be the possibility that Honda and Toyota may assemble hybrid models in the US – following the unveiling of the Acura NSX sports car equipped with new all-wheel drive hybrid powertrain technology, the auto maker announced that development and future production will occur at its Marysville, Ohio, facility.  The Acura ILX compact sedan also featured a hybrid concept.

• Should tensions in the Arabian Gulf escalate, then demand for hybrids will rise rapidly in the short term.  However, auto makers must bear in mind the revisions to the CAFE mandate, such as proposals by the Obama Administration to raise the level to 54.5 mpg (4.3 l/100 km) by 2025, a level that will certainly require more powertrains to be electrified in the long term, especially if the model segment mix remains unchanged.  An an example of making hybrids more affordable for wider consumer adoption is the Toyota Prius C compact ('Aqua' in Japan).

Comfort and Convenience
Despite their size, the new or recently-launched compact models have many features that would only be offered to larger segments.  Examples of these luxury features include passive keyless entry and start systems (PKE), dual-zone automatic HVAC (heating-ventilation-air conditioning) systems as standard, electric parking brakes (EPB), RLT (rain-light-tunnel) sensing for automated lights and windshield wipers and electrically-adjustable, heated and ventilated seats. 

• Examples of compact models with PKE that are assembled (or will be assembled) in North America include the Acura ILX, the Cadillac ATS, the Chevrolet Cruze, the Dodge Dart, the Hyundai Elantra and the Nissan Tiida.

Infotainment
Consumer demand for connectable systems for smartphones and the use of the Internet as a gateway to various features has led to the development of new all-encompassing, software-based infotainment systems.  The launches at Detroit are no exception, which will further lead to growing electronics demand for Bluetooth, voice control systems and HMI systems controlled by color displays and touch screens. 

• Examples of new infotainment systems include Cadillac CUE, Chrysler UConnect, Ford SYNC, Hyundai Blue Link and Toyota EnTune.  The Cadillac ATS and Dodge Dart are equipped with large color touch screens.

Safety
As side airbags become mandated in North America, the focus for safety applications in new models has been advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). 

Blind spot detection (BSD) and rear cross traffic assist (RCTA) have been key additions in the North American market, as consumers there tend to drive into perpendicular parking spaces and need assistance when backing out of them – the new Cadillac ATS and Dodge Dart will offer radar-based systems. 

Front windshield camera-based systems offer greater value-for-money, offering both distance warning and lane departure warning (LDWS) from the same module – the Cadillac ATS and the Buick Encore are likely to offer the same Magna-supplied system, as already being offered on some GM crossovers. 

Other features making a greater appearance in North America will be adaptive front-lighting systems (AFS) and high intensity discharge (HID) headlamps, as well as head-up displays, as on the Cadillac ATS.  In line with the Kids & Cars mandate, the HMI displays enable the Cadillac ATS and the Dodge Dart to play back park assist cameras.

Implications
According to the latest (January 2012) edition of Strategy Analytics’ Automotive Electronics System Demand Forecast (2009 to 2018), North American demand for the above applications will grow the fastest, mirroring the trends seen at the Detroit Show.

• Among the fastest growing applications were Collision Warning (+26.9 percent CAAGR by $M value), Passive Keyless Entry (+15.8 percent) and Engine Control (+14.9 percent).

Despite vehicle downsizing, demand for automotive electronics in the North American industry remains strong.

The Automotive Electronics System Demand Forecast 2009 to 2018 – January 2012 Update, can be downloaded at: http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=6985.

Updates on the following databases will be published in February / March 2012:
- ADAS Supply & Fitment
- Advanced Entry and Start System Supply and Fitment
- EV/HEV Technologies Supply & Fitment
- Hybrid Technologies Legislation/Support

As someone who spends a reasonable amount of time aboard aircraft, I have a certain interest in air safety. I recently came across an article on MSNBC titled "Are airline pilots forgetting how to fly?" This essentially argues that some recent fatal crashes have been caused by pilots being unfamiliar with how to operate the airplane when the automatic systems fail.

The automotive industry is clearly well behind aerospace in the levels of automation offered.  The article states that it is commonplace for the crew to only manually fly the aircraft for 90 seconds at each of take-off and landing.  However, with the increasing level of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) and other support, do we risk de-skilling drivers?

What will the driver who has relied on their automatic parking system do when it fails?  What will the driver used to autonomous cruise control do when driving a rental car without it?  I know from my own experience the momentary confusion that can often arise when switching to and from vehicles with manual and automatic transmission.

The industry is progressing upon generally sensible lines.  For example, the Volvo City Safety system, which can apply emergency braking effort automatically, offers no audio/visual warning to the driver.  This is deliberate, the thinking being that if it did, drivers may begin to rely on the system to keep an eye out for them.  The system intervention is deliberately late and harsh, so that it is truly an emergency aid only.

However, we regularly see examples of people taking dangerous and unsuitable roads because their sat-nav told them to.  Some seem to have already delegated navigation responsibilities to a machine, and will obey it blindly.

Safety and support system designers will need to keep a close eye on ensuring that they do not unintentionally de-skill drivers and leave them in situations that they no longer have the talents to deal with.

In association with DSK Toyota, KPIT Cummins has developed CLICKSERVICESMILE.com, an internet-based information system that will make car ownership easier for Indian consumers. 

The service aims to provide consumers with:

• Accurate information for fault detection.

• Locations of the nearest dealers for servicing.

• Ability to specify the time and date for servicing.

• Accurate estimates of servicing costs include retail prices for spare parts.

• Accurate information on vehicle data and service history, assisting the sales of used cars.

• Convenient methods of payment and accurate billing information.

The dealer pays a Rs 50,000-150,000 (US$1,100-3,200) fee a year, or in monthly instalments, but the consumer pays nothing.  The system is being trialled in Pune, India, but essentially this system could operate anywhere in the world and is later going to be rolled out to motorcycle owners as well.

This development is significant for the company as it is its first consumer-based product.

The reasons why are: 

• While its embedded software business to global players is guaranteed to grow (mainly in safety systems, efficient low-emission powertrains and infotainment), its business in the burgeoning Indian automotive industry has yet made much headway.  KPIT Cummins may receive more domestic business from vendors wanting to enter the CLICKSERVICESMILE.com market place.  In 2007, KPIT Cummins sales by region were US 61.9 percent, UK 29.2 percent and Rest of the World 8.9 percent. 

• The Indian car market is set to grow further with the recent arrival of the Tata Nano and other low-cost models, and thus expand the used car market as well - this will require a more convenient, safer and cost effective means of purchasing and servicing vehicles for consumers who are likely to be new to owning a car.  JD Power has forecasted an increase in Indian car production from 2.4m units in 2009 to 4.0m units in 2016. 

• For the OEM customer and for the dealer, CLICKSERVICESMILE.com gives it an advantage over rivals.  As electronic content grows in emerging market vehicles, so more specialised help is required from dealers.  KPIT Cummins' strength in automotive embedded software will enable it to offer dealers the expertise in dealing with this.

KPIT Cummins' industry-based approach and new vertical focus strategy have led to a consumer-based product as a means to tap into domestic demand for automotive embedded software. At present, around a third of KPIT Cummins' business covers automotive and over 90 percent comes from sales in the mature markets.  As a result of this approach, it is attempting to diversify its business geographically and to expand its automotive business further.

Strategy Analytics has published an earlier report on the Indian automotive market: http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=3251 and on the low-cost car market: http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=4038.  Also its recent System Demand Forecast highlights demand levels for specific electronic systems in India and elsewhere: http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=5073.

Strategy Analytics (SA) has been tracking the deployment of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) since some its earliest deployment and has been speaking to a number of leading players in the camera industry regarding the latest product developments.   From its research, SA concludes that these new developments will lead to an expanded opportunity and growth in automotive cameras - and predicts annual demand at 50 million units by 2016. As a result, cameras represent one of the fastest growing sensor technologies in the automotive industry.  New developments include:

• The development of more compact, lower cost camera module designs but with increased levels of performance.
• Greater ease in adding new image based systems to the vehicle, thanks to increased deployment of flat panel screens used in primary instrument clusters, center stacks, and even small displays integrated into rear view mirror, in more new vehicle designs.
• The development of new ADAS features that require the use of multiple cameras, such as the surround vision systems and corner view junction cameras that are being fitted on some Japanese minivan models, or the use of cameras to provide additional support to other sensors used in ADAS, such as object detection and identification in Adaptive Cruise Control and Pre-Crash Safety systems.
• Improved ability to use the same imaging camera to feed its information to multiple ADAS features, thus raising the benefit-to-cost proposition of the camera.  One example is the multi-functional windshield camera, now deployed on some European sedans, used to input to several safety features.
• Growth in designs of new car models that are much sleeker and coupe-like which, while they appeal to consumers viewed from the outside they offer poor visibility to the driver from the inside; Also, production of large minivan and SUV models with significant blindspots represent a sizeable proportion of the industry's total - both these vehicle segments can benefit from additional camera based park assistance.
• There is a high possibility that government mandates will require fitment of cameras on future models.  In the US, the Gulbransen Act has forced NHTSA to look into park assistance systems such as cameras to prevent deaths of children when drivers are backing-up.  Similar mandates have already been legislated on heavy duty and light commercial vehicles to prevent back-up and blindspot collisions in Europe, Japan and North America. 

For clients wanting to see the full report and market forecast on automotive cameras and systems using cameras, please go to http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=5221 to download the relevant Viewpoint, and the accompanying ADAS supply database can be downloaded at http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=5220. 

TRW has announced the establishment of its second North American Driver Assist Systems Engineering Center at the Company's Livonia, Michigan headquarters. The new engineering center will focus on the development and testing of advanced radar applications to support TRW's North American customers.  http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/trw-establishes-driver-assist-systems-engineering-center-in-north-america-69750272.html  Strategy Analytics has been noting increasing interest in Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) in the North American market  and sees the move as part of TRW's aim to broaden its portfolio of products away from more commoditized areas such as braking, steering and suspension systems – areas that have been badly hit by the recession.  The reasons behind TRW's move are: 

• The company has a strong presence in airbags,  seat belt systems and chassis electronics , all mature areas where growth is flattening but all being foundation elements upon which to build an ADAS business.
• Raising new business, particularly high-end automotive systems that command better profit margins and potential expansion of sales across OEM platforms.
• North America is a key market for ADAS adoption:  U.S. authorities typically have a higher propensity to mandate vehicle safety system implementation than other regions - the latest is the forthcoming NHTSA mandate on backing-up systems based on the Gulbransen "Kids and Cars" bill;  There is growing consumer awareness;  There is increasing ADAS deployment by North American  vehicle  OEMs  - that include the new Ford "Cross Traffic Alert" radar-based system, which enables drivers to monitor their blindspot when changing lanes and when backing out of parking spaces.
• Growing moves towards "sensor fusion", namely to combine input from different sensor types, in order to enhance the performance of ADAS systems.  Such systems that could see the benefits of "sensor fusion" include ACC (Adaptive Cruise Control) and PCS (Pre-Crash Safety) , as cameras are deployed for object classification while radars are deployed for accurate, long-range, all-weather object detection.  The sensor fusion approach requires much development to achieve commercial and performance optimization, hence the new TRW radar design center will make collaborative developments with its earlier camera counterpart inFarmington Hills, MI., which has already launched its camera-based Lane Departure Warning System (LDWS).

The focus behind the new design center in Livonia, MI., is the development of new radar-based ADAS systems, which may include the newly-launched, cost competitive 24 GHz radar system for ACC and PCS systems.  Current TRW ACC/PCS radar customers include Volkswagen, which is planning to expand its North America based manufacturing and start assembly of a mid-sized sedan in the U.S.  TRW is also hoping to extend its customer base further.   However, the ADAS supply scene is becoming more crowded and TRW has to act fast in order to stand out from the other players in the market - see Strategy Analytics ADAS Supply and Fitment Database:  http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=4642.  Despite the current woes of the automotive industry, which are now beginning to ease, Strategy Analytics has seen continued investment in new engineering development centers in North America and elsewhere, which it has documented in its latest "Tier 1 Vendor Regional Design Center Database ": http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=4982.�

Two key themes have emerged at the VDI Baden Baden event this year.  The first is perhaps the expected: reducing vehicle CO2 emissions.  Numerous technical sessions have detailed developments in areas such as high-voltage networks and battery systems. 

Baden Baden has also dealt with the pragmatic, however, with as much time seemingly given to the less high-profile but much higher volume start-stop technology.  This mixture of developments for the future and practical solutions for now seems to hit the right mark.  It's easy to get carried away on the hype of electric vehicles, but the reality is they'll make negligible impact on global vehicle emissions for many years to come.  Stop start is almost the opposite - a technology that is growing incredibly fast with no hype at all. This pragmatism extended into and even dominated the final panel discussion, with delegates (largely engineers) being encourage to and tell the world about the severe difficulties in EV development, and puncture some of the hype - a siginificant difference in tone from the more public-facing IAA Frankfurt Motor show of a few weeks back!

The second main theme is a topic previously highlighted by Strategy Analytics in relation to its ongoing in-vehicle infotainment analysis: HMI.  Although HMI issues have been bubbling in the background for a while, they have come to the fore at Baden Baden, with the significant challenge of reducing the apparent complexity of the vehicle to the driver at the same time as that complexity is growing faster than ever.  There seems no firm agreement on the way forward: touchscreens have been both praised and dismissed as an important part of the solution!  HMI touches also on the main theme of energy efficiency, in the the driver needs to be informed about how they are driving.  This becomes vital in the electric vehicle, where the limited power on board means that decisions as to temperature, entertainment and cruising speed may make the difference between reaching your destination and not.

Other streams looked at areas including safety, vehicle architectures and AUTOSAR, but the two themes above highlight the essence of the event, as does the mix of the aspirational and pragmatic - with the emphasis on the latter. 

The German auto industry may not have all the answers, but it has put out a believable vision of the future, and a potentially viable path to get there.