On March 19th, Qualcomm presented its inductive charging technology for electric vehicles.  It had recently acquired the company HaloIPT, an offshoot of the University of Auckland, New Zealand, that had developed the technology.

The induction system involves the fitment of a receiving pad connected to a control unit and the vehicle’s battery pack.  On the infrastructure side, a charging pad is fitted to the road surface, inside a parking bay.  Both pads contain wiring coils, with magnetic fields transferring the electrical energy from the infrastructure to the vehicle.

The charging system is capable of full operation even where there is misalignment between the induction pads.  To park accurately to align with the charging pad is very difficult in practice – so user experience issues have been taken into consideration.  There is even tolerance in the vertical alignment, should the EV be an SUV model, should there be additional occupants in the EV or should the charging pad needs to be hidden from view under the tarmac surface, such as for street cleaning purposes.  This is due to the Double-D and Double-D Quadrature coils designed to enable energy transfer over a wider area.

Foreign Object Detection systems are currently being developed to prevent charging taking place where children or animals are present in the recharging area.  Despite the presence of magnetic fields and radio waves, Qualcomm is convinced that inductive charging is safe – thanks to its earlier experience with RF technologies in the mobile handset area.  It claims it is much safer than the use of conductive charging, with the threat of electric shock, and the presence of cables that people can trip over.

Qualcomm claim high charging efficiencies of 90 percent – another area where detractors claimed inductive charging has a weakness.  It earlier tested its inductive charging system on a Citroen C1 EVIE and the Rolls-Royce 102EX concepts.  Both a 3 kW single-phase and 7 kW three-phase system were developed.  On the Lola Drayson B12/69EV racing car, a fast-charging 20 kW three-phase system has also been developed.  Transport for London and other UK-based partners are evaluating the system from 2012 onwards.

At present, the technology is at the pre-commercial stage and is awaiting interest from OEMs and Qualcomm’s Tier 1 and Tier 2 automotive customers to bring about a platform design, which would generate economies of scale to make the hardware affordable for mass market deployment.  The first deployment of inductive charging technology could come as early as 2015.

So far, business models mooted include the free or subsidized charging: Offered by retail corporations, perhaps time limited; Insurance corporations, to monitor vehicle movements to prevent theft; or Combined with toll road usage.

Dynamic charging is also a long-term possibility, where the vehicle is charged as it is being driven, thanks to the misalignment tolerance developed by Qualcomm – although this will depend on how fast charging takes place in order to replace the energy consumed to drive the vehicle.

Strategy Analytics believes that such a charging system has the potential to become a success in serving the plug-in vehicle market.  However, the technology is still dependant on the ability to persuade supporting infrastructure to be developed alongside Qualcomm’s attempt to have the system deployed by OEMs.  The danger is that as conductive charging systems are now being standardized (e.g. ChaDeMo, SAE J1772), Qualcomm’s inductive charging system could be left behind.  Even if OEMs do adopt the system, they may also have to fit a conductive charging system as a back-up to it – which adds unnecessary cost.

To help advance Qualcomm’s case in the short term would be to promote its charging system as a retro-fitment to the fleet market, whereby volume deployment can be generated quickly.  That way, OEMs would have an earlier indication of how successful such a charging system could be.

Otherwise, history may repeat itself when players having the right technology fail to succeed, by not getting it to market ahead of their rivals – Qualcomm has to work fast to promote its system, get infrastructure players involved  and develop a platform for OEM adoption before conductive technologies shut it out of the automotive market.

The North American International Auto Show was opened in Detroit on January 9th, 2012.  In comparison to earlier shows, Detroit revealed greater optimism in the automotive industry, following the crippling recession of 2008-2009.  LMC Automotive (formerly JD Power Automotive Forecasting) released its Q4 2011 sales forecast, showing US light vehicle sales rebounding for 2010 and 2011.  However, with the arrival of Volkswagen at Chattanooga, Tennessee, and the growth of Hyundai in the US, such as the Elantra winning the 2012 North American Car of the Year Award, the Detroit-based auto makers face stiffer competition to regain their market shares in their home markets. 

Compact Luxury – The New Battleground
While light truck sales have recovered, the North American market is seeing a particularly faster growth in compact models.  This will result in higher production volumes for them.  According to LMC Automotive, the C-Segment will see the largest unit increase in production from 2011 to 2018, followed by the D-Segment, while the A- and B-Segments will see fastest percentage rise.

• The Show’s top launches were the Cadillac ATS sedan, the Dodge Dart sedan and the Buick Encore compact crossover. 

Not only do the above models come from the compact segments, two of them come from luxury brands.  As many North American consumers downsize, in order to lower their fuel consumption, they still demand a high level of comfort and convenience in their future vehicle purchases – and with this, electronics demand in the North American market will continue to grow.

• The Cadillac ATS aims to compete against more successful German branded sedans, in particular the BMW 3-Series.

Fuel Economy
Growing demand for fuel economy will also result in the adoption of direct injected gasoline engines across the industry, as on the Buick Encore and the Cadillac ATS.  The Dodge Dart, however, will come equipped with the new Tigershark gasoline engine, developed with FIAT’s MultiAir exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) and variable valve timing (VVT) technology, although MultiAir is expected to be deployed on gasoline direct injected engines in the future. 

Ford has made major strides in electrifying the powertrain with the announcement of its roll-out of stop-start systems, starting with the 2013 Ford Fusion.  Ford’s common platforms will also enable its customers to opt for electric, hybrid and plug-in hybrid versions of various models, such as the Ford Focus compact and C-MAX compact minivan.  The GM eAssist mild hybrid system has already been offered on the 2012 Chevrolet Malibu, so perhaps the Buick Encore will follow suit? 

And there may be the possibility that Honda and Toyota may assemble hybrid models in the US – following the unveiling of the Acura NSX sports car equipped with new all-wheel drive hybrid powertrain technology, the auto maker announced that development and future production will occur at its Marysville, Ohio, facility.  The Acura ILX compact sedan also featured a hybrid concept.

• Should tensions in the Arabian Gulf escalate, then demand for hybrids will rise rapidly in the short term.  However, auto makers must bear in mind the revisions to the CAFE mandate, such as proposals by the Obama Administration to raise the level to 54.5 mpg (4.3 l/100 km) by 2025, a level that will certainly require more powertrains to be electrified in the long term, especially if the model segment mix remains unchanged.  An an example of making hybrids more affordable for wider consumer adoption is the Toyota Prius C compact ('Aqua' in Japan).

Comfort and Convenience
Despite their size, the new or recently-launched compact models have many features that would only be offered to larger segments.  Examples of these luxury features include passive keyless entry and start systems (PKE), dual-zone automatic HVAC (heating-ventilation-air conditioning) systems as standard, electric parking brakes (EPB), RLT (rain-light-tunnel) sensing for automated lights and windshield wipers and electrically-adjustable, heated and ventilated seats. 

• Examples of compact models with PKE that are assembled (or will be assembled) in North America include the Acura ILX, the Cadillac ATS, the Chevrolet Cruze, the Dodge Dart, the Hyundai Elantra and the Nissan Tiida.

Infotainment
Consumer demand for connectable systems for smartphones and the use of the Internet as a gateway to various features has led to the development of new all-encompassing, software-based infotainment systems.  The launches at Detroit are no exception, which will further lead to growing electronics demand for Bluetooth, voice control systems and HMI systems controlled by color displays and touch screens. 

• Examples of new infotainment systems include Cadillac CUE, Chrysler UConnect, Ford SYNC, Hyundai Blue Link and Toyota EnTune.  The Cadillac ATS and Dodge Dart are equipped with large color touch screens.

Safety
As side airbags become mandated in North America, the focus for safety applications in new models has been advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). 

Blind spot detection (BSD) and rear cross traffic assist (RCTA) have been key additions in the North American market, as consumers there tend to drive into perpendicular parking spaces and need assistance when backing out of them – the new Cadillac ATS and Dodge Dart will offer radar-based systems. 

Front windshield camera-based systems offer greater value-for-money, offering both distance warning and lane departure warning (LDWS) from the same module – the Cadillac ATS and the Buick Encore are likely to offer the same Magna-supplied system, as already being offered on some GM crossovers. 

Other features making a greater appearance in North America will be adaptive front-lighting systems (AFS) and high intensity discharge (HID) headlamps, as well as head-up displays, as on the Cadillac ATS.  In line with the Kids & Cars mandate, the HMI displays enable the Cadillac ATS and the Dodge Dart to play back park assist cameras.

Implications
According to the latest (January 2012) edition of Strategy Analytics’ Automotive Electronics System Demand Forecast (2009 to 2018), North American demand for the above applications will grow the fastest, mirroring the trends seen at the Detroit Show.

• Among the fastest growing applications were Collision Warning (+26.9 percent CAAGR by $M value), Passive Keyless Entry (+15.8 percent) and Engine Control (+14.9 percent).

Despite vehicle downsizing, demand for automotive electronics in the North American industry remains strong.

The Automotive Electronics System Demand Forecast 2009 to 2018 – January 2012 Update, can be downloaded at: http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=6985.

Updates on the following databases will be published in February / March 2012:
- ADAS Supply & Fitment
- Advanced Entry and Start System Supply and Fitment
- EV/HEV Technologies Supply & Fitment
- Hybrid Technologies Legislation/Support

Back in 2007, I did an analysis of the then-new BMW 5-Series sedan, which showed the class-leading efficiency of its 6-cylinder gasoline engines. It can be seen in full here. This showed the significant lead that BMW enjoyed over many of its competitors. Over three years on, I’ve just repeated the analysis of fuel efficiency in automatic transmission E-Segment sedans, which also include the Mercedes E-Class and Audi A6. To compare apples-with-apples, only models on sale in Europe, and thus with a European drive cycle fuel economy figure published, were looked at. The results were perhaps surprising. Gasoline powered models have seen a very modest increase in efficiency, but have seen outputs rise more sharply. The overall unweighted average fuel economy of the models surveyed improved by around 5% from 10.1 to 9.6 l/100km, while power output rose by over 13% from 193 to 219 kW. The story for diesel was somewhat different: the overall average economy of the models surveyed rose improved by over 15%, from 7.3 to 6.2 l/100km. Power outputs were up by less than 8%, from 140 to 150 kW. This is arguably because manufacturers have focused their economy efforts on the models which buyers who care about economy purchase – which are typically the diesels. Gasoline models are more popular in non-European markets, such as the USA, where fuel is cheaper, and where E-Segment sedan buyers have traditionally been far less concerned with fuel economy than performance. My prediction will be that the next 3-4 years will see significant increases in overall gasoline engine efficiency in this segment, with many more 4-cylinder DI forced induction units being used, along with a much wider penetration of stop-start. This will be to meet the demand of those buyers in Europe in this segment who still choose gasoline - but also as a recognition that fuel economy is now firmly on the agenda in the USA and Asia, even for luxury sedan buyers. There's still room for improvement.

On June 4th, KPIT Cummins and Bharat Forge announced the formation of a joint venture to offer the REVOLO hybrid powertrain system to the Indian aftermarket.  Strategy Analytics has analyzed the sales potential of this system.

• KPIT Cummins are specialists in product engineering design and is one of the world’s leading automotive software developers.
• Bharat Forge is a division of the Kalyani Group, a leading manufacturer of engine and chassis components. 
• Both companies are based in India and have considerable operations in both their home and export markets.

The REVOLO system is a parallel hybrid solution that can be installed to the crankshaft of the internal combustion engine by an aftermarket dealer, in a minimum of four hours.  It can even be installed to engines that do not have an Engine Management System (EMS) and engines fuelled by carburetors.  REVOLO is a mild hybrid system with a small 15-22 hp (11-16 kW) AC induction motor-generator and so it cannot propel the vehicle on electric power alone, but offers torque assist, brake regeneration and engine stop-start.  Its simplified design minimizes the need to make modifications to the host vehicle, just requiring the addition of a small battery pack and various sensors.  The battery can either be a low-cost valve-regulated lead acid or a lithium-ion version, both capable of recharging from an external power supply. 

• REVOLO is being retailed at Rs. 65,000-145,000 (US$1,380-3,090) fully fitted.
• Some 11 patents have been filed for this system.
• The system, fitted to vehicles equipped with an 800 cc gasoline engine, an 800 cc diesel engine and a 1.4-liter gasoline engine, was tested by the Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI).  It confirmed that the REVOLO system enhanced fuel efficiency by more than 40 percent. Furthermore, under city driving conditions the increase in efficiency had exceeded 60 percent and that reduction in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions had exceeded 30 percent.
• According to Ravi Pandit, Chiarmand and Group CEO of KPIT Cummins, “it will give vehicle owners the option of upgrading their vehicles to a higher level of fuel efficiency and performance, without the expense of having to buy a new one”.

For its initial launch, the sales potential for REVOLO is mainly positive.  Advantages for Indian deployment include:

• The relative ease in which this system can be retrofitted to any vehicle, with all electronics and software algorithms integrated into the module.
• The relatively low cost (when compared to other hybrid systems), thus lowering barrier to consumer acceptance and possibly enabling a faster return on investment.
• The increased level of efficiency, as confirmed by the ARAI tests.  Most driving by passenger cars in India is conducted on urban roads at low speed that would benefit from a stop-start system.  The same driving conditions may exist in other emerging markets.
• It could target deployment for vehicles that are the least efficient and most polluting currently on Indian roads – namely those not benefitting from electronic powertrain control and fuel injection.
• It negates the need for costlier new vehicle purchases (and thus ties-in with KPIT Cummins’ involvement in supporting used car sales and car servicing with CLICKSERVICESMILE.com).
• For vehicles with larger than 1.2-liters gasoline and 1.5-liters diesel engines, the hybrid system could also bring about a reduction in vehicle excise duty, reduced from 20 to 10 percent.

Concerns for REVOLO include:

• The system’s highest cost level (US$3,090), as the system may have to compete against purchases of entire, new less-polluting vehicles, such as the Tata Nano priced at around US$2,500.
• That in certain emerging markets, governments have stabilized fuel prices and so lengthens the payback period for owning a hybrid vehicle.

Depending on the success in the aftermarket, discussions with OEMs may lead to further success for REVOLO.  To see the latest Strategy Analytics forecast for OEM hybrid powertrain demand, please go to the Automotive Electronics System Demand Forecast 2008 to 2017: Main Data Tables. 

The recent news that Toyota is investing $50M in buying a stake in US electric vehicle maker Tesla is arguably Toyota’s most significant activity in the nascent electric vehicle market to date.  Although it owns some 70% of the hybrid vehicle market, its activities in the pure EV market have been modest compared with many of its competitors. It has been matched in its lack of enthusiasm for pure EVs by Honda, which occupies the #2 slot in the hybrid market, with head of research and development at Honda, Tomohiko Kawanabe, recently being quoted as saying: “We are definitely conducting research on electric cars, but I can’t say I can wholeheartedly recommend them… It’s questionable whether consumers will accept the annoyances of limited driving range and having to spend time charging them.”  However – Honda has made significant investments in fuel cell technology, whereas Toyota has shown reluctance to consider anything other than its “Plan A” for vehicle electrification – the hybrid. However – before getting too excited over the relevance of Toyota’s move in investing in Tesla is – it is worth looking at the sums involved.  $50M may initially sound like a lot of money – but it is way less than the current round of re-calls that Toyota is having to initiate.  These have been estimated as potentially exceeding $2 billion – once lost sales and warranty payments are taken into account.  The Tesla deal – which includes Tesla taking over a recently-closed NUMMI and creating 1,000 jobs, will likely play well with the American – and especially Californian  – public.  The deal has already been warmly welcomed by Governor Schwarzenegger.   This deal certainly has damage-limitation and image-boosting aspects, as well as purely technical ones. Toyota thus seems to be thawing in its attitude to EVs – but a large part of this may just be post re-calls signs of a bit less certainty in its own infallibility emanating from Toyota City.

Strategy Analytics sees high-end automotive electronic control systems driving up on-board MCU data and code storage needs, especially for next-generation designs in powertrain, ADAS (advanced driver assistance) and Infotainment systems.  So this week's STMicroelectronics announcement of its 55 nm embedded Flash (eFlash) process technology, which will be implemented in its next-generation automotive microcontroller (MCU) chips is significant.  The company plans the first 55nm embedded-Flash product to be available for customer sampling in mid-2011, and automotive qualification in 2013. http://www.st.com/stonline/stappl/cms/press/news/year2010/t2482.htm The move should give ST a competitve advantage over its nearest industry rivals:  Strategy Analytics currently ranks ST as #3 global automotive semiconductor supplier.  Infineon (#2) announced in November 2009 an extension of its development and production partnership with TSMC to a 65 nm embedded flash process technology targeting a range of applications including next generation automotive systems.  Its automotive MCU qualification and production start is scheduled for the first half of 2013. http://www.infineon.com/cms/en/corporate/press/news/releases/2009/INFXX200911-005.html Our eyes are on Freescale, #1 automotive vendor overall and # automotive MCU vendor.  Its current 90 nm low power CMOS process for its automotive eFlash Power Architecture MCU products was developed in collaboration with ST, but the Austin-based company has yet to announce a decision on its route to a next generation solution. Strategy Analytics sees powertrain and ADAS are critical future battlegrounds for competing 32-bit MCU vendors, and having products with the right performance levels available on time to match designers needs is critical.  Forecast demand for these systems is provided in SA's Automotive System Demand Forecast: http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=5073 MCU demand forecasts for powertrain, ADAS and other systems can be found in SA's Automotive Semiconductor Demand Forecast: http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=5081

Strategy Analytics has been tracking the deployment of both types of stop-start systems and concludes that the modified starter-based system, mainly supplied by Bosch, is gaining the upper hand. 

Also because of increased interest from the emerging markets, Strategy Analytics has raised its forecast for all stop-start systems worldwide.

The reasons behind the changes to the market are:

• Consumer demand in the automotive market has shifted towards compact models, due to the recession and the "cash-for-clunkers" incentives that has made compacts better value for money.  Therefore, when purchasing a stop-start model, modified starters have become more attractive because of its lower cost and greater likelihood of deployment in the compact segment.

• The growing consumer demand for more fuel efficient models has raised the profile of efficiency sub-brands such as BMW's "EfficientDynamics".  As more OEMs join the bandwagon, so the desire to offer a model with stop-start increases.  Development of a model with a modified starter is usually shorter than for a model with a starter-alternator, thus enabling the rapid marketing of an efficiency sub-brand.

• Government incentives and mandates are putting further pressure on OEMs to bring in efficiency improvements to a higher level or to bring them earlier than previously planned.  For example, BMW is also implementing the modified starter system on six-cylinder mid-segment models as a more cost effective way in meeting the tough European mandates on carbon dioxide emissions rather than deploying costlier hybrid powertrains.  Through volume purchasing and from previous experience in the compact segments, BMW is hoping to deliver efficiencies that do not adversely impact its bottom line.

• Also such government measures are also being adopted in the emerging markets domestically, and not just to comply with the demands of an export market.  China is planning a corporate average fuel economy limit that is tougher than the one set in the US earlier this year.  Modified starters are ideally suited for emerging markets, being the more cost effective solution available. 

• Starter-alternators have found favor by only a handful of OEM customers: Daimler, PSA and Toyota.  Deployment has been limited to a few models, with wider PSA deployment only to commence next year.  Furthermore, the recently growing development of mild and full hybrid powertrains, such as the new Honda Insight, will raise competition for starter-alternators.

For clients wanting to see the full revised forecast on stop-start systems, please go to http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=5112 to download the relevant Insight report.

Chrysler has given extensive insight into its future plans in a series of presentations that were released recently.  Its future roadmap shows the introduction of Chrysler Group-branded Fiat-based models from 2012, with a C-segment compact sedan to be built by Chrysler for both the Dodge and Chrysler brands leading the way.  This will be joined by a couple of Fiat-based commercial vehicles the same year.  2013 will see more new products, including:

• A Fiat-built B-segment small car for Chrysler and Dodge
• A Fiat-based B-segment small SUV for Jeep
• A Fiat-based Patriot/Compass replacement for Jeep
• A Fiat-based D-segment sedan for Chrysler and Dodge
• A Fiat-based Liberty replacement for Jeep
• A Fiat-based mid-sized crossover for Chrysler

These new models, along with the launch of the Fiat-branded 500 from 2011, are hoped to help revive Chrysler’s US market share from a low point of under 9% in 2009 to approaching 14% by 2014. This will not be easy, with competitors such as a resurgent Ford, chastened Toyota and ambitious Hyundai-Kia keen to fight hard for market share as well. One key part of Chrysler’s plan is the rapid adoption of many of Fiat’s powertrain technologies.  Strategy Analytics believes that Chrysler has fallen somewhat behind the curve in the US, with engine line-ups such as Ford’s EcoBoost having no current Chrysler-derived competition. In its powertrain strategy document, Chrysler states that is wishes to implement a “Rapid introduction of all Fiat Group technologies: downsize/turbo, MultiAir, start/stop, Gas Direct Injection”.  By 2014, Chrysler envisages offering a wide range of downsized units, including a 400+ hp 3.0-liter 6-cylinder direction-injection turbocharged unit based upon Fiat MultiAir technology. The result is that by 2014, Chrysler Group predicts that 38% of its products to be fitted by a 4-cylinder gasoline engine, up from an expected 19% in 2010.  Diesel demand will also expand, up from 9% to 14%.  The 6- and 8-cylinder gasoline units will see sharp declines, down from 54% to 38% and 18% to 10% respectively.  By 2014, only 12% of powertrains are expected to be Chrysler legacy designs. Chrysler is less forthcoming when it comes to hybrid and electric vehicle technology.  Although its short-medium term strategy includes “Electrification/hybrids to complement advances in conventional technologies”, this would appear to be limited in ambition with a longer-term strategy stated as “Electrification/hybrids will expand once they become a cost effective proposition to final customer”. Firm commitments to the electrification roadmap are few and far between, and include a stop-start Jeep Wrangler diesel for late 2010.  The Chrysler Group electrification plan slide contains little of substance, other than asserting that “Chrysler Group is lead engineering center for hybrid /electrification for Chrysler & Fiat Group”, as shown below. Strategy Analytics is not surprised by this approach.  It is highly pragmatic, and concentrates the engineering resource on what needs to be done: getting a highly-competitive range of conventional powertrains on the road soon.  However, there is a danger.  GM has generated huge numbers of column inches with the Volt, and Ford now has its electric Focus on the Jay Leno Show.  Chrysler is getting done what needs to be done, but risks losing out on what needs to be seen to be done.