On June 4th, KPIT Cummins and Bharat Forge announced the formation of a joint venture to offer the REVOLO hybrid powertrain system to the Indian aftermarket.  Strategy Analytics has analyzed the sales potential of this system.

• KPIT Cummins are specialists in product engineering design and is one of the world’s leading automotive software developers.
• Bharat Forge is a division of the Kalyani Group, a leading manufacturer of engine and chassis components. 
• Both companies are based in India and have considerable operations in both their home and export markets.

The REVOLO system is a parallel hybrid solution that can be installed to the crankshaft of the internal combustion engine by an aftermarket dealer, in a minimum of four hours.  It can even be installed to engines that do not have an Engine Management System (EMS) and engines fuelled by carburetors.  REVOLO is a mild hybrid system with a small 15-22 hp (11-16 kW) AC induction motor-generator and so it cannot propel the vehicle on electric power alone, but offers torque assist, brake regeneration and engine stop-start.  Its simplified design minimizes the need to make modifications to the host vehicle, just requiring the addition of a small battery pack and various sensors.  The battery can either be a low-cost valve-regulated lead acid or a lithium-ion version, both capable of recharging from an external power supply. 

• REVOLO is being retailed at Rs. 65,000-145,000 (US$1,380-3,090) fully fitted.
• Some 11 patents have been filed for this system.
• The system, fitted to vehicles equipped with an 800 cc gasoline engine, an 800 cc diesel engine and a 1.4-liter gasoline engine, was tested by the Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI).  It confirmed that the REVOLO system enhanced fuel efficiency by more than 40 percent. Furthermore, under city driving conditions the increase in efficiency had exceeded 60 percent and that reduction in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions had exceeded 30 percent.
• According to Ravi Pandit, Chiarmand and Group CEO of KPIT Cummins, “it will give vehicle owners the option of upgrading their vehicles to a higher level of fuel efficiency and performance, without the expense of having to buy a new one”.

For its initial launch, the sales potential for REVOLO is mainly positive.  Advantages for Indian deployment include:

• The relative ease in which this system can be retrofitted to any vehicle, with all electronics and software algorithms integrated into the module.
• The relatively low cost (when compared to other hybrid systems), thus lowering barrier to consumer acceptance and possibly enabling a faster return on investment.
• The increased level of efficiency, as confirmed by the ARAI tests.  Most driving by passenger cars in India is conducted on urban roads at low speed that would benefit from a stop-start system.  The same driving conditions may exist in other emerging markets.
• It could target deployment for vehicles that are the least efficient and most polluting currently on Indian roads – namely those not benefitting from electronic powertrain control and fuel injection.
• It negates the need for costlier new vehicle purchases (and thus ties-in with KPIT Cummins’ involvement in supporting used car sales and car servicing with CLICKSERVICESMILE.com).
• For vehicles with larger than 1.2-liters gasoline and 1.5-liters diesel engines, the hybrid system could also bring about a reduction in vehicle excise duty, reduced from 20 to 10 percent.

Concerns for REVOLO include:

• The system’s highest cost level (US$3,090), as the system may have to compete against purchases of entire, new less-polluting vehicles, such as the Tata Nano priced at around US$2,500.
• That in certain emerging markets, governments have stabilized fuel prices and so lengthens the payback period for owning a hybrid vehicle.

Depending on the success in the aftermarket, discussions with OEMs may lead to further success for REVOLO.  To see the latest Strategy Analytics forecast for OEM hybrid powertrain demand, please go to the Automotive Electronics System Demand Forecast 2008 to 2017: Main Data Tables. 

Strategy Analytics has been tracking the deployment of both types of stop-start systems and concludes that the modified starter-based system, mainly supplied by Bosch, is gaining the upper hand. 

Also because of increased interest from the emerging markets, Strategy Analytics has raised its forecast for all stop-start systems worldwide.

The reasons behind the changes to the market are:

• Consumer demand in the automotive market has shifted towards compact models, due to the recession and the "cash-for-clunkers" incentives that has made compacts better value for money.  Therefore, when purchasing a stop-start model, modified starters have become more attractive because of its lower cost and greater likelihood of deployment in the compact segment.

• The growing consumer demand for more fuel efficient models has raised the profile of efficiency sub-brands such as BMW's "EfficientDynamics".  As more OEMs join the bandwagon, so the desire to offer a model with stop-start increases.  Development of a model with a modified starter is usually shorter than for a model with a starter-alternator, thus enabling the rapid marketing of an efficiency sub-brand.

• Government incentives and mandates are putting further pressure on OEMs to bring in efficiency improvements to a higher level or to bring them earlier than previously planned.  For example, BMW is also implementing the modified starter system on six-cylinder mid-segment models as a more cost effective way in meeting the tough European mandates on carbon dioxide emissions rather than deploying costlier hybrid powertrains.  Through volume purchasing and from previous experience in the compact segments, BMW is hoping to deliver efficiencies that do not adversely impact its bottom line.

• Also such government measures are also being adopted in the emerging markets domestically, and not just to comply with the demands of an export market.  China is planning a corporate average fuel economy limit that is tougher than the one set in the US earlier this year.  Modified starters are ideally suited for emerging markets, being the more cost effective solution available. 

• Starter-alternators have found favor by only a handful of OEM customers: Daimler, PSA and Toyota.  Deployment has been limited to a few models, with wider PSA deployment only to commence next year.  Furthermore, the recently growing development of mild and full hybrid powertrains, such as the new Honda Insight, will raise competition for starter-alternators.

For clients wanting to see the full revised forecast on stop-start systems, please go to http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=5112 to download the relevant Insight report.

Two key themes have emerged at the VDI Baden Baden event this year.  The first is perhaps the expected: reducing vehicle CO2 emissions.  Numerous technical sessions have detailed developments in areas such as high-voltage networks and battery systems. 

Baden Baden has also dealt with the pragmatic, however, with as much time seemingly given to the less high-profile but much higher volume start-stop technology.  This mixture of developments for the future and practical solutions for now seems to hit the right mark.  It's easy to get carried away on the hype of electric vehicles, but the reality is they'll make negligible impact on global vehicle emissions for many years to come.  Stop start is almost the opposite - a technology that is growing incredibly fast with no hype at all. This pragmatism extended into and even dominated the final panel discussion, with delegates (largely engineers) being encourage to and tell the world about the severe difficulties in EV development, and puncture some of the hype - a siginificant difference in tone from the more public-facing IAA Frankfurt Motor show of a few weeks back!

The second main theme is a topic previously highlighted by Strategy Analytics in relation to its ongoing in-vehicle infotainment analysis: HMI.  Although HMI issues have been bubbling in the background for a while, they have come to the fore at Baden Baden, with the significant challenge of reducing the apparent complexity of the vehicle to the driver at the same time as that complexity is growing faster than ever.  There seems no firm agreement on the way forward: touchscreens have been both praised and dismissed as an important part of the solution!  HMI touches also on the main theme of energy efficiency, in the the driver needs to be informed about how they are driving.  This becomes vital in the electric vehicle, where the limited power on board means that decisions as to temperature, entertainment and cruising speed may make the difference between reaching your destination and not.

Other streams looked at areas including safety, vehicle architectures and AUTOSAR, but the two themes above highlight the essence of the event, as does the mix of the aspirational and pragmatic - with the emphasis on the latter. 

The German auto industry may not have all the answers, but it has put out a believable vision of the future, and a potentially viable path to get there.