You know what's cooler than 25 billion downloads? A trillion downloads.
Last weekend, Apple announced its App Store had surpassed 25 billion downloads. Just a few days later Apple is preparing to unveil the iPad 3 - possibly known as the iPad HD - depending on which rumor mongering site you choose to believe. Regardless of the moniker the new device is enshrined with one thing is clear - Apple is dominating the apps market. It's app store has more than 600,000 apps. It's growing 3% or more each month. Apple earns the lions share of paid download revenue in our most recent apps forecast buoyed by the success of the iPad, the continued interest in the iPhone, and the ability to charge a premium for tablet apps. But despite its strong market position the possibility of reaching a trillion downloads remains slim. Why?
The case against reaching 1 Trillion downloads:
1. Universal apps limiting the need to download the same app (think Angry Birds and Angry Birds HD) for each device you own it on instead one app can be used on multiple devices within an ecosystem (such as Infinity Blade)
2. HTML5 might be small potatoes today but in the future developers will begin to experiment with distirbuting HTML5 apps outside OEM app stores. HTML5 may not represent a significant part of the market but it could pull enough downloads away from OEMs to prevent them from reachin 1 trillion
3. Facebook will become an increasingly important app distribution platform - as seen by its announcements at CES - and could lead the next wave in app distribution short circuiting the volume needed to reach 1 trillion (although Facebook itself one day could view for 1 trillion downloads)
For more in-depth analysis about the case against Apple, the case for Apple (and others) reaching 1 trillion downloads, and the impact such a milestone would have on the industry see the Strategy Analytics Insight; You know what cooler than a billion? A trillion.